The role of smoking in changes in the survival curve: an empirical study in 10 European countries.

PURPOSE: We examined the role of smoking in the two dimensions behind the time trends in adult mortality in European countries, that is, rectangularization of the survival curve (mortality compression) and longevity extension (increase in the age-at-death). METHODS: Using data on national sex-specific populations aged 50 years and older from Denmark, Finland, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, we studied trends in life expectancy, rectangularity, and longevity from 1950 to 2009 for both all-cause and nonsmoking-related mortality and correlated them with trends in lifetime smoking prevalence. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality, rectangularization accelerated around 1980 among men in all the countries studied, and more recently among women in Denmark and the United Kingdom. Trends in lifetime smoking prevalence correlated negatively with both rectangularization and longevity extension, but more negatively with rectangularization. For nonsmoking-related mortality, rectangularization among men did not accelerate around 1980. Among women, the differences between all-cause mortality and nonsmoking-related mortality were small, but larger for rectangularization than for longevity extension. Rectangularization contributed less to the increase in life expectancy than longevity extension, especially for nonsmoking-related mortality among men. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking affects rectangularization more than longevity extension, both among men and women.

Evidence-based provisional clinical classification criteria for autoinflammatory periodic fevers.

The objective of this work was to develop and validate a set of clinical criteria for the classification of patients affected by periodic fevers. Patients with inherited periodic fevers (familial Mediterranean fever (FMF); mevalonate kinase deficiency (MKD); tumour necrosis factor receptor-associated periodic fever syndrome (TRAPS); cryopyrin-associated periodic syndromes (CAPS)) enrolled in the Eurofever Registry up until March 2013 were evaluated. Patients with periodic fever, aphthosis, pharyngitis and adenitis (PFAPA) syndrome were used as negative controls. For each genetic disease, patients were considered to be 'gold standard' on the basis of the presence of a confirmatory genetic analysis. Clinical criteria were formulated on the basis of univariate and multivariate analysis in an initial group of patients (training set) and validated in an independent set of patients (validation set). A total of 1215 consecutive patients with periodic fevers were identified, and 518 gold standard patients (291 FMF, 74 MKD, 86 TRAPS, 67 CAPS) and 199 patients with PFAPA as disease controls were evaluated. The univariate and multivariate analyses identified a number of clinical variables that correlated independently with each disease, and four provisional classification scores were created. Cut-off values of the classification scores were chosen using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis as those giving the highest sensitivity and specificity. The classification scores were then tested in an independent set of patients (validation set) with an area under the curve of 0.98 for FMF, 0.95 for TRAPS, 0.96 for MKD, and 0.99 for CAPS. In conclusion, evidence-based provisional clinical criteria with high sensitivity and specificity for the clinical classification of patients with inherited periodic fevers have been developed.

Fire management, climate change and their interacting effects on birds in complex Mediterranean landscapes: dynamic distribution modelling of an early-successional species - the near-threatened Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata)

The current challenge in a context of major environmental changes is to anticipate the responses of species to future landscape and climate scenarios. In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one the most powerful driving forces of fire dynamics, with fire frequency and impact having markedly increased in recent years. Species distribution modelling plays a fundamental role in this challenge, but better integration of available ecological knowledge is needed to adequately guide conservation efforts. Here, we quantified changes in habitat suitability of an early-succession bird in Catalonia, the Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) ― globally evaluated as Near Threatened in the IUCN Red List. We assessed potential changes in species distributions between 2000 and 2050 under different fire management and climate change scenarios and described landscape dynamics using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model that simulates fire impacts in the landscape and post-fire regeneration (MEDFIRE model). Dartford Warbler occurrence data were acquired at two different spatial scales from: 1) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC) and 2) Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (CBBA). Habitat suitability was modelled using five widely-used modelling techniques in an ensemble forecasting framework. Our results indicated considerable habitat suitability losses (ranging between 47% and 57% in baseline scenarios), which were modulated to a large extent by fire regime changes derived from fire management policies and climate changes. Such result highlighted the need for taking the spatial interaction between climate changes, fire-mediated landscape dynamics and fire management policies into account for coherently anticipating habitat suitability changes of early succession bird species. We conclude that fire management programs need to be integrated into conservation plans to effectively preserve sparsely forested and early succession habitats and their associated species in the face of global environmental change.

Supplier Evaluation on the Standard Material and Component Markets in the Electronic Manufacturing Equipment Industry

Työn tavoitteena oli arvioida ja selvittää toimittajasuhteeseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä JOT Automation Group Oyj.n ja sen alihankkijoiden välisessä yhteistyössä ja muodostaa yrityksen kilpailukykyä parantava toimittaja-arviointiprosessi. Työssä keskityttiin tarkastelemaan yleisillä materiaali- ja komponenttimarkkinoilla toimivia toimittajia elektroniikkateollisuuden tuotantojärjestelmien valmistuksessa. Ensin tutustuttiin toimittajasuhdetta ja sen arviointia käsitelleeseen kirjallisuuteen. Teorian tueksi tehtiin haastatteluja ja kartoitettiin ensisijaisia tarpeita ja tavoitteita arviointiprosessille. Valmis prosessi testattiin käytännössä kahden eri case-esimerkin avulla. Prosessista muodostui kahteen eri työkaluun jakautunut kokonaisuus, joista auditointi arvioi toimittajan kyvykkyyttä vastatta sille asetettuihin vaatimuksiin. Toimittajan suorituskyvyn mittaaminen puolestaan testaa ja vertaa jatkuvasti toiminnan todellista tasoa auditoinnissa saatuihin tuloksiin. Työ sisältää selvityksen ja ohjeistuksen toimittaja-arviointiprosessin käytöstä. Prosessin käyttö alentaa toimittajaan kohdistuvaa materiaalien saatavuuteen ja hankintaan liittyviä riskejä. Esimerkeistä saadut kokemukset osoittivat, että prosessin avulla päästään pureutumaan tärkeisiin ydinalueisiin ja kehittämään niitä sekä toimittajalle, että ostajayritykselle edullisella tavalla. Toimittaja-arviointiprosessista kehittyy toimintatapa yrityksen ja sen toimittajan välisen suhteen ylläpitämiseksi.

Uusien rajapintojen vaikutus Nokia TETRA –rajapintapalvelimen arkkitehtuuriin

Nokia TETRA –järjestelmä on digitaaliseen tekniikkaan pohjautuva radiopuhelinjärjestelmä, joka on tarkoitettu erityisvaatimuksia omaavien organisaatioiden ammattikäyttöön. Sen tyypillisiä käyttäjiä ovat erilaiset viranomaiset, kuten poliisi, palo- ja pelastuslaitos sekä rajavartiolaitos. Se perustuu avoimeen TETRA-standardiin, joka määrittelee tärkeimmät palvelut ja rajapinnat tiettyjen verkkoelementtien välillä. TETRA-järjestelmän käyttöpaikkatyöasemat ja palvelimet perustuvat kaikki samaan Nokia TETRA –rajapintapalvelimen arkkitehtuuriin. Käyttöpaikat tarjoavat tehokkaat toiminnot verkon operatiiviseen käyttöön ja hallintaan. Palvelimet puolestaan tarjoavat ohjelmointirajapintansa kautta kolmansille osapuolille mahdollisuuden luoda TETRA-järjestelmän palveluita käyttäviä sovelluksia. Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia uusien rajapintojen soveltuvuutta sekä selvittää niiden vaikutusta Nokia TETRA –rajapintapalvelimen arkkitehtuuriin. Ensin kartoitettiin nykyisen arkkitehtuurin ongelmat ja puutteet äänikommunikaatioon käytetyssä tiedonsiirrossa, ja äänikommunikaatiossa käyttäjään päin. Näiden ratkaisemiseksi tutkittiin uusia rajapinta-vaihtoehtoja. Parhaiten soveltuvista vaihtoehdoista muodostettiin ratkaisu, jonka vaikutus uuden sukupolven arkkitehtuuriin selvitettiin.

Two cilengitide regimens in combination with standard treatment for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma and unmethylated MGMT gene promoter: results of the open-label, controlled, randomized phase II CORE study.

BACKGROUND: Survival outcomes for patients with glioblastoma remain poor, particularly for patients with unmethylated O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) gene promoter. This phase II, randomized, open-label, multicenter trial investigated the efficacy and safety of 2 dose regimens of the selective integrin inhibitor cilengitide combined with standard chemoradiotherapy in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma and an unmethylated MGMT promoter. METHODS: Overall, 265 patients were randomized (1:1:1) to standard cilengitide (2000 mg 2×/wk; n = 88), intensive cilengitide (2000 mg 5×/wk during wk 1-6, thereafter 2×/wk; n = 88), or a control arm (chemoradiotherapy alone; n = 89). Cilengitide was administered intravenously in combination with daily temozolomide (TMZ) and concomitant radiotherapy (RT; wk 1-6), followed by TMZ maintenance therapy (TMZ/RT→TMZ). The primary endpoint was overall survival; secondary endpoints included progression-free survival, pharmacokinetics, and safety and tolerability. RESULTS: Median overall survival was 16.3 months in the standard cilengitide arm (hazard ratio [HR], 0.686; 95% CI: 0.484, 0.972; P = .032) and 14.5 months in the intensive cilengitide arm (HR, 0.858; 95% CI: 0.612, 1.204; P = .3771) versus 13.4 months in the control arm. Median progression-free survival assessed per independent review committee was 5.6 months (HR, 0.822; 95% CI: 0.595, 1.134) and 5.9 months (HR, 0.794; 95% CI: 0.575, 1.096) in the standard and intensive cilengitide arms, respectively, versus 4.1 months in the control arm. Cilengitide was well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: Standard and intensive cilengitide dose regimens were well tolerated in combination with TMZ/RT→TMZ. Inconsistent overall survival and progression-free survival outcomes and a limited sample size did not allow firm conclusions regarding clinical efficacy in this exploratory phase II study.

Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

PROTETOR SOLAR DIMINUI A INCIDÊNCIA DAS PODRIDÕES ‘OLHO-D-BOI’ E ‘BRANCA’ EM MAÇÃS ‘FUJI STANDARD’ E ‘PINK LADY’

RESUMO A podridão-olho-de-boi (Cryptosporiosis perennans) e a podridão-branca (Botryosphaeria dothidea) estão entre as principais doenças de verão da macieira no Brasil. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o efeito de uma película protetora constituída de cera de carnaúba e argilas (Raynox® ), nas doses de 2,5 e 5,0%, na infecção por C. perennans e por B. dothidea em maçãs das cultivares Fuji Standard e Pink Lady. As macieiras foram pulverizadas cinco vezes de dezembro de 2007 a março de 2008, conforme previsão de condições adequadas para ocorrência dos danos e crescimento dos frutos. Na colheita, as maçãs foram inoculadas com os dois patógenos e avaliadas quanto à incidência das podridões. Indiferente à dose, o uso de Raynox® reduziu a incidência da podridão-branca e da podridão-olho-de-boi em 67% e 42% na ‘Fuji Standard’, e 43% e 42% na ‘Pink Lady’, respectivamente. O incremento da dose aumentou a eficiência do produto para o controle da podridão-olho-de-boi. Na dose de 2,5%, o controle da podridão-olho-de-boi foi de 19% e 20%, respectivamente, em maçãs ‘Fuji Standard’ e ‘Pink Lady’, enquanto para as mesmas cultivares, mas com a dose de 5,0%, estes valores foram de 65% e 63%. Mais estudos são necessários para o ajuste de dose e critérios de aplicação para que o protetor solar possa ser recomendado.

Antifungal activities of SCY-078 (MK-3118) and standard antifungal agents against clinical non-Aspergillus mold isolates.

The limited armamentarium of active and oral antifungal drugs against emerging non-Aspergillus molds is of particular concern. Current antifungal agents and the new orally available beta-1,3-d-glucan synthase inhibitor SCY-078 were tested in vitro against 135 clinical non-Aspergillus mold isolates. Akin to echinocandins, SCY-078 showed no or poor activity against Mucoromycotina and Fusarium spp. However, SCY-078 was highly active against Paecilomyces variotii and was the only compound displaying some activity against notoriously panresistant Scedosporium prolificans.

Sierpinski curve Julia sets for quadratic rational maps

We investigate under which dynamical conditions the Julia set of a quadratic rational map is a Sierpiński curve.

The Confidence Information Ontology: a step towards a standard for asserting confidence in annotations.

Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo

Do standard burn mortality formulae work on a population of severely burned children and adults?

Accurate prediction of mortality following burns is useful as an audit tool, and for providing treatment plan and resource allocation criteria. Common burn formulae (Ryan Score, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), classic and revised Baux) have not been compared with the standard Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHEII) or re-validated in a severely (≥20% total burn surface area) burned population. Furthermore, the revised Baux (R-Baux) has been externally validated thoroughly only once and the pediatric Baux (P-Baux) has yet to be. Using 522 severely burned patients, we show that burn formulae (ABSI, Baux, revised Baux) outperform APACHEII among adults (AUROC increase p<0.001 adults; p>0.5 children). The Ryan Score performs well especially among the most at-risk populations (estimated mortality [90% CI] original versus current study: 33% [26-41%] versus 30.18% [24.25-36.86%] for Ryan Score 2; 87% [78-93%] versus 66.48% [51.31-78.87%] for Ryan Score 3). The R-Baux shows accurate discrimination (AUROC 0.908 [0.869-0.947]) and is well-calibrated. However, the ABSI and P-Baux, although showing high measures of discrimination (AUROC 0.826 [0.737-0.916] and 0.848 [0.758-0.938]) in children), exceedingly overestimates mortality, indicating poor calibration. We highlight challenges in designing and employing scores that are applicable to a wide range of populations.