Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

On-line desorption of dried blood spot: A novel approach for the direct LC/MS analysis of micro-whole blood samples.

The aim of this work is to present a new concept, called on-line desorption of dried blood spots (on-line DBS), allowing the direct analysis of a dried blood spot coupled to liquid chromatography mass spectrometry device (LC/MS). The system is based on an inox cell which can receive a blood sample (10 microL) previously spotted on a filter paper. The cell is then integrated into LC/MS system where the analytes are desorbed out of the paper towards a column switching system ensuring the purification and separation of the compounds before their detection on a single quadrupole MS coupled to atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation (APCI) source. The described procedure implies that no pretreatment is necessary in spite the analysis is based on whole blood sample. To ensure the applicability of the concept, saquinavir, imipramine, and verapamil were chosen. Despite the use of a small sampling volume and a single quadrupole detector, on-line DBS allowed the analyses of these three compounds over their therapeutic concentrations from 50 to 500 ng/mL for imipramine and verapamil and from 100 to 1000 ng/mL for saquinavir. Moreover, the method showed good repeatability with relative standard deviation (RSD) lower than 15% based on two levels of concentration (low and high). Function responses were found to be linear over the therapeutic concentration for each compound and were used to determine the concentrations of real patient samples for saquinavir. Comparison of the founded values with those of a validated method used routinely in a reference laboratory showed a good correlation between the two methods. Moreover, good selectivity was observed ensuring that no endogenous or chemical components interfered with the quantitation of the analytes. This work demonstrates the feasibility and applicability of the on-line DBS procedure for bioanalysis.

First genome size estimations for some eudicot families and genera

First genome size estimations for some eudicot families and genera.- Genome size diversity in angiosperms varies roughly 2400-fold, although approximately 45% of angiosperm families lack a single genome size estimation, and therefore, this range could be enlarged. To contribute completing family and genera representation, DNA C-Values are here provided for 19 species from 16 eudicot families, including first values for 6 families, 14 genera and 17 species. The sample of species studied is very diverse, including herbs, weeds, vines, shrubs and trees. Data are discussed regarding previous genome size estimates of closely related species or genera, if any, their chromosome number, growth form or invasive behaviour. The present research contributes approximately 1.5% new values for previously unreported angiosperm families, being the current coverage around 55% of angiosperm families, according to the Plant DNA C-Values Database.

Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species

Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

Diallel analysis for frogeye leaf spot resistance in soybean

Seven soybean cultivars (Bossier, Cristalina, Davis, Kent, Lincoln, Paraná and Uberaba), with different levels of resistance to Cercospora sojina, were crossed in a diallel design to determine the general (GCA) and specific (SCA) combining abilities relative to the inheritance of the resistance. Race 04 of the fungus was inoculated in the parents and in the 21 F1 hybrids in a greenhouse in a completely randomized design, with 12 replications. The reactions to the disease were evaluated 20 days after the inoculation, always on the most infected leaflet. Both GCA and SCA were significant for all the evaluated characters, being inferred that, for the expression of the characters, the additive, dominant and, possibly, epistatic genic actions were important. The largest values of estimated SCA effect (ij) were observed in the hybrid combinations where at least one parent presented high GCA. Cristalina, Davis and Uberaba cultivars showed the largest estimates for GCA effect (i), and from the analysis of ii, the contribution of these parents to heterosis of their hybrids will be towards the reduction of the disease symptoms. Therefore, these cultivars are indicated as parents in breeding programs that seek the development of soybean cultivars with resistance to frogeye leaf spot.

Impact of controlled changes in grain size and pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization response of "proxies" of saturated alluvial sediments

Understanding the influence of pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization (SIP) response is critical for establishing relationships between the electrical and hydrological properties of surficial unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, which host the bulk of the world's readily accessible groundwater resources. Here, we present the results of laboratory SIP measurements on industrial-grade, saturated quartz samples with granulometric characteristics ranging from fine sand to fine gravel, which can be regarded as proxies for widespread alluvial deposits. We altered the pore space characteristics by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples. In general, the results indicate a clear connection between the SIP response and the granulometric as well as pore space characteristics. In particular, we observe a systematic correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the relaxation time of the Cole-Cole model describing the observed SIP effect for the entire range of considered grain sizes. The results do, however, also indicate that the detailed nature of these relations depends strongly on variations in the pore space characteristics, such as, for example, the degree of compaction. The results of this study underline the complexity of the origin of the SIP signal as well as the difficulty to relate it to a single structural factor of a studied sample, and hence raise some fundamental questions with regard to the practical use of SIP measurements as site- and/or sample-independent predictors of the hydraulic conductivity.

Tiller size/density compensation in grazed Tifton 85 bermudagrass swards

The objective of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of the tiller size/density compensation mechanism in Tifton 85 bermudagrass swards grazed by sheep under continuous stocking. Treatments corresponded to four sward steady state conditions (5, 10, 15, and 20 cm of sward surface height), maintained by sheep grazing. The experimental design was a complete randomized block with four replicates. Pasture responses evaluated include: tiller population density, tiller mass, leaf mass and leaf area per tiller, and herbage mass. Tiller volume, leaf area index, tiller leaf/stem ratio, and tiller leaf area/volume ratio were calculated and simple regression analyses between tiller population density and tiller mass were performed. Measurements were made in December, 1998, and January, April, and July, 1999. The swards showed a tiller size/density compensation mechanism in which high tiller population densities were associated with small tillers and vice-versa, except in July, 1999. Regression analyses revealed that linear coefficients were steeper than the theoretical expectation of -3/2. Increments in herbage mass were attributable to increases in tiller mass in December and January. Leaf area/volume ratio values of Tifton 85 tillers were much lower than those commonly found for temperate grass species.

Sample size for measurement of root traits on common bean by image analysis

Evaluation of root traits may be facilitated if they are assessed on samples of the root system. The objective of this work was to determine the sample size of the root system in order to estimate root traits of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) cultivars by digital image analysis. One plant was grown per pot and harvested at pod setting, with 64 and 16 pots corresponding to two and four cultivars in the first and second experiments, respectively. Root samples were scanned up to the completeness of the root system and the root area and length were estimated. Scanning a root sample demanded 21 minutes, and scanning the entire root system demanded 4 hours and 53 minutes. In the first experiment, root area and length estimated with two samples showed, respectively, a correlation of 0.977 and 0.860, with these traits measured in the entire root. In the second experiment, the correlation was 0.889 and 0.915. The increase in the correlation with more than two samples was negligible. The two samples corresponded to 13.4% and 16.9% of total root mass (excluding taproot and nodules) in the first and second experiments. Taproot stands for a high proportion of root mass and must be deducted on root trait estimations. Samples with nearly 15% of total root mass produce reliable root trait estimates.

Allocation of above-ground growth in Pinus sylvestris - impacts of tree size and competition

Abstract

Community structure in mediterranean shallow lentic ecosystems: size-based vs. taxon-based approaches

The main environmental variables determining the community structure and the functioning of Mediterranean shallow lentic ecosystems are described. These ecosystems are characterized by the unpredictability of their water inputs and the high variability in their water level and physical and chemical composition. Variations in flooding, salinity, and water turnover are determinant in species composition and nutrient dynamics. Taxon-based and size-based approaches to the study of the community structure of aquatic organisms that colonise these ecosystems are also compared. The conventional taxonomic approach, based on the determination of species composition, has been used for the identification of patterns in species richness, distribution and temporal dynamics, and for ecological requirements of species and their potential use as ecological indicators. This taxonbased approach has been compared with a size-based approach, where individuals are classified by their size. Size-based approach gives complementary information about community structure and dynamics, especially when communities are dominated by a single species. The use of size diversity combined with species diversity is suggested for a more complete understanding of community structuring in this type of ecosystem. Detailed examples of two Mediterranean shallow lentic ecosystems, the salt marshes of the Empordà wetlands and the Espolla temporary karstic pond, which differ in hydrology and water origin, are used to discuss the suitability of these different approaches

Plant Size and Frequency of Strike, December 1970

In Illinois and Iowa, the author finds that plants with approximately 750 employees have suffered the highest strike-frequency rate. Why at this size? Among other explanations, it is posited that in significantly smaller plants labor-management relations can be personalized-and tensions reduced-while in appreciably larger plants sophistication in dealing with disputes may, of necessity, have been developed. C. Fred Eisele is a graduate teaching assistant at the University of Iowa's College of Business Administration.

Surfactant palmitoylmyristoylphosphatidylcholine is a marker for alveolar size during disease.

Two common lung-related complications in the neonate are respiratory distress syndrome, which is associated with a failure to generate low surface tension at the air-liquid interface because of pulmonary surfactant insufficiency, and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), a chronic lung injury with reduced alveolarization. Surfactant phosphatidylcholine (PC) molecular species composition during alveolarization has not been examined. Mass spectrometry analysis of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of rodents and humans revealed significant changes in surfactant PC during alveolar development and BPD. In rats, total PC content rose during alveolarization, which was caused by an increase in palmitoylmyristoyl-PC (16:0/14:0PC) concentration. Furthermore, two animal models of BPD exhibited a specific reduction in 16:0/14:0PC content. In humans, 16:0/14:0PC content was specifically decreased in patients with BPD and emphysema compared with patients without alveolar pathology. Palmitoylmyristoyl-PC content increased with increasing intrinsic surfactant curvature, suggesting that it affects surfactant function in the septating lung. The changes in acyl composition of PC were attributed to type II cells producing an altered surfactant during alveolar development. These data are compatible with extracellular surfactant 16:0/14:0PC content being an indicator of alveolar architecture of the lung.

Is tumour size an underestimated feature in the current TNM system for malignancies of the pancreatic head?

BACKGROUND: As the long-term survival of pancreatic head malignancies remains dismal, efforts have been made for a better patient selection and a tailored treatment. Tumour size could also be used for patient stratification. METHODS: One hundred and fourteen patients underwent a pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma, peri-ampullary and biliary cancer stratified according to: ≤20 mm, 21-34 mm, 35-45 mm and >45 mm tumour size. RESULTS: Patients with tumour sizes of ≤20 mm had a N1 rate of 41% and a R1/2 rate of 7%. The median survival was 3.4 years. N1 and R1/2 rates increased to 84% and 31% for tumour sizes of 21-34 mm (P = 0.0002 for N, P = 0.02 for R). The median survival decreased to 1.6 years (P = 0.0003). A further increase in tumour size of 35-45 mm revealed a further increase of N1 and R1/2 rates of 93% (P < 0.0001) and 33%, respectively. The median survival was 1.2 years (P = 0.004). Tumour sizes >45 mm were related to a further decreased median survival of 1.1 years (P = 0.2), whereas N1 and R1/2 rates were 87% and 20%, respectively. DISCUSSION: Tumour size is an important feature of pancreatic head malignancies. A tumour diameter of 20 mm seems to be the cut-off above which an increased rate of incomplete resections and metastatic lymph nodes must be encountered and the median survival is reduced.

Characterization of Tomato yellow spot virus, a novel tomato-infecting begomovirus in Brazil

The objective of this work was the biological and molecular characterization of a begomovirus detected in São Joaquim de Bicas, Minas Gerais, Brazil, named TGV-[Bi2], by determining its host range, complete nucleotide sequence and phylogenetic relationships with other begomoviruses. Biological characterization consisted of a host range study using either sap inoculation or particle bombardment as inoculation methods. The yellow spot virus can infect plants in Solanaceae and Amaranthaceae, including economically importat crops as sweet pepper, and weeds as Datura stramonium and Nicotiana silvestris. For the molecular characterization, the full-length genome (DNA-A and DNA-B) was amplified, cloned and completely sequenced. Sequence comparisons and phylogenetic analyses indicated that TGV-[Bi2] constitutes a novel begomovirus species named Tomato yellow spot virus (ToYSV), closely related to Sida mottle virus (SiMoV).

The Implied Book and the Narrative Text. On a Blind Spot in Narratological Theory - from a Media Studies Perspective

The article is concerned with the formal definition of a largely unnoticed factor in narrative structure. Based on the assumptions that (1) the semantics of a written text depend, among other factors, directly on its visual alignment in space, that (2) the formal structure of a text has to meet that of its spatial presentation and that (3) these assumptions hold true also for narrative texts (which, however, in modern times typically conceal their spatial dimensions by a low-key linear layout), it is argued that, how ever low-key, the expected material shape of a given narrative determines the configuration of its plot by its author. The ,implied book' thus denotes an author's historically assumable, not necessarily conscious idea of how his text, which is still in the process of creation, will be dimensionally presented and under these circumstances visually absorbed. Assuming that an author's knowledge of this later (potentially) substantiated material form influences the composition, the implied book is to be understood as a text-genetically determined, structuring moment of the text. Historically reconstructed, it thus serves the methodical analysis of structural characteristics of a completed text.