Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: an empirical analysis

We employ a large dataset of physical inventory data on 21 different commodities for the period 1993–2011 to empirically analyze the behavior of commodity prices and their volatility as predicted by the theory of storage. We examine two main issues. First, we analyze the relationship between inventory and the shape of the forward curve. Low (high) inventory is associated with forward curves in backwardation (contango), as the theory of storage predicts. Second, we show that price volatility is a decreasing function of inventory for the majority of commodities in our sample. This effect is more pronounced in backwardated markets. Our findings are robust with respect to alternative inventory measures and over the recent commodity price boom.

Isolation and characterization of an AINTEGUMENTA-like gene in different coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) varieties from Sri Lanka

Development of an efficient tissue culture protocol in coconut is hampered by numerous technical constraints. Thus a greater understanding of the fundamental aspects of embryogenesis is essential. The role of AINTEGUMENTA-like genes in embryogenesis has been elucidated not only in model plants but also in economically important crops. A coconut gene, CnANT, that encodes two APETALA2 (AP2) domains and a conserved linker region similar to those of the BABY BOOM transcription factor was cloned, characterized, and its tissue specific expression was examined. The full-length cDNA of 1,780 bp contains a 1,425-bp open reading frame that encodes a putative peptide of 474 amino acids. The genomic DNA sequence includes 2,317 bp and consists of nine exons interrupted by eight introns. The exon/intron organization of CnANT is similar to that of homologous genes in other plant species. Analysis of differential tissue expression by real-time polymerase chain reaction indicated that CnANT is expressed more highly in in vitro grown tissues than in other vegetative tissues. Sequence comparison of the genomic sequence of CnANT in different coconut varieties revealed one single nucleotide polymorphism and one indel in the first exon and first intron, respectively, which differentiate the Tall group of trees from Dwarfs. The indel sequence, which can be considered a simple sequence repeats marker, was successfully used to distinguish the Tall and Dwarf groups as well as to develop a marker system, which may be of value in the identification of parental varieties that are used in coconut breeding programs in Sri Lanka.

House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes

This article applies a three-regime Markov switching model to investigate the impact of the macroeconomy on the dynamics of the residential real estate market in the US. Focusing on the period between 1960 and 2011, the methodology implemented allows for a clearer understanding of the drivers of the real estate market in “boom”, “steady-state” and “crash” regimes. Our results show that the sensitivity of the real estate market to economic changes is regime-dependent. The paper then proceeds to examine whether policymakers are able to influence a regime switch away from the crash regime. We find that a decrease in interest rate spreads could be an effective catalyst to precipitate such a change of state.

The new Brazilian cinema

In the second half of the 1990s, Brazil experienced a cinematic boom. Many of the new films were received enthusiastically by audiences and critics and released worldwide. This passionately argued and illuminating book provides the first comprehensive critical account of what is known as the 'Renaissance of Brazilian cinema' and demonstrates just how thought-provoking and inspiring Brazilian cinema has become. Contributors: José Carlos Avellar - Ivana Bentes - Stephanie Dennison - Verônica Ferreira Dias - Carlos Diegues - Amir Labaki - Maria Esther Maciel - José Álvaro Moisés - Laura Mulvey - Lúcia Nagib - Luiz Zanin Oricchio - Fernão Pessoa Ramos - Lisa Shaw - Robert Stam - João Luiz Vieira - Ismail Xavier.

Going global: the Brazilian scripted film

This article departs from the assumption that a certain section of world cinema, usually defined as ‘independent’, has been evolving on the basis of good scripts. Between the late 1980s and early 90s, there has been a boom of new cinemas in the world, such as the new Iranian, Taiwanese, Japanese, Mexican, Argentine and Brazilian cinemas. A significant part of this production shows a renewed interest in local and national peculiarities of their respective countries, going against the grain of globalisation and its typical cultural dilution. Most of these films are also engaged in reassessing narrative cinema, as a kind of reaction against the deconstructive work carried out by postmodern cinema of the 1980s.Recent new cinemas are supported by a combination of local and international resources, derived from public and private sponsors at home, and funding agencies, festivals and TV channels abroad. In most cases funds are granted after the film script has been analysed and approved by commissions of experts. The New Brazilian Cinema, or cinema da retomada as it is locally called, has been enormously affected by this scheme, which has even caused a ‘script boom’ in Brazil in the past decade. The chapter examins the results of this process.

A method to diagnose boundary-layer type using Doppler lidar

A new technique for objective classification of boundary layers is applied to ground-based vertically pointing Doppler lidar and sonic anemometer data. The observed boundary layer has been classified into nine different types based on those in the Met Office ‘Lock’ scheme, using vertical velocity variance and skewness, along with attenuated backscatter coefficient and surface sensible heat flux. This new probabilistic method has been applied to three years of data from Chilbolton Observatory in southern England and a climatology of boundary-layer type has been created. A clear diurnal cycle is present in all seasons. The most common boundary-layer type is stable with no cloud (30.0% of the dataset). The most common unstable type is well mixed with no cloud (15.4%). Decoupled stratocumulus is the third most common boundary-layer type (10.3%) and cumulus under stratocumulus occurs 1.0% of the time. The occurrence of stable boundary-layer types is much higher in the winter than the summer and boundary-layer types capped with cumulus cloud are more prevalent in the warm seasons. The most common diurnal evolution of boundary-layer types, occurring on 52 days of our three-year dataset, is that of no cloud with the stability changing from stable to unstable during daylight hours. These results are based on 16393 hours, 62.4% of the three-year dataset, of diagnosed boundary-layer type. This new method is ideally suited to long-term evaluation of boundary-layer type parametrisations in weather forecast and climate models.

An assessment of a three-beam Doppler lidar wind profiling method for use in urban areas

Currently there are few observations of the urban wind field at heights other than rooftop level. Remote sensing instruments such as Doppler lidars provide wind speed data at many heights, which would be useful in determining wind loadings of tall buildings, and predicting local air quality. Studies comparing remote sensing with traditional anemometers carried out in flat, homogeneous terrain often use scan patterns which take several minutes. In an urban context the flow changes quickly in space and time, so faster scans are required to ensure little change in the flow over the scan period. We compare 3993 h of wind speed data collected using a three-beam Doppler lidar wind profiling method with data from a sonic anemometer (190 m). Both instruments are located in central London, UK; a highly built-up area. Based on wind profile measurements every 2 min, the uncertainty in the hourly mean wind speed due to the sampling frequency is 0.05–0.11 m s−1. The lidar tended to overestimate the wind speed by ≈0.5 m s−1 for wind speeds below 20 m s−1. Accuracy may be improved by increasing the scanning frequency of the lidar. This method is considered suitable for use in urban areas.

Globalization and the evolution of international retailing: a comment on Alexander’s ‘British Overseas Retailing, 1900-1960'

Nicholas Alexander's (2011. British overseas retailing, 1900–60: International firm characteristics, market selections and entry modes. Business History, 53, 530–556) survey of British overseas retailers from 1900 to 1960 provides pathbreaking new evidence of international retailing activity during the first globalisation boom. The article surveys this and other recent evidence, and confirms that international retailing was far more significant up to 1929 than previously thought. This activity was overwhelmingly undertaken by non-retailers, however, and hence by multinationals whose advantages in retailing were fundamentally unsustainable over the long run. Even the department store format, the principal retail innovation of the period, was not internationalised primarily by multinationals. Rather it was diffused via indigenous entrepreneurs, driven by a rapidly growing global demand for western style fashion and dress.

Overexpression of coconut AINTEGUMENTA-like gene, CnANT, promotes in vitro regeneration in transgenic Arabidopsis

Knowledge of the molecular biological changes underlying the process of embryogenesis is important for the improvement of somatic embryogenesis of coconut. Among the transcription factors that control the transition from vegetative to embryogenic growth, members of APETALA2/Ethylene-responsive element binding protein domain family play an important role in promoting embryo development. Significant insights into the role of AP2 genes have been obtained by the ectopic expression of AP2 sub family genes in transgenic Arabidopsis. A homolog of the AINTEGUMENTA-like gene that encodes the two AP2 domains and the linker region was identified in the coconut genome. Phylogenetic analysis showed that this gene, CnANT, encodes a protein that branched with BABY BOOM/PLETHORA clade in the AINTEGUMENTA-like major clade and was similar to the oil palm EgAP2-1 protein. According to real time RT-PCR results, higher expression of CnANT was observed in more mature zygotic embryos. Also, high CnANT expression was recorded in embryogenic callus compared to other stages of somatic embryogenesis. We examined the effect of ectopic CnANT expression on the development and regenerative capacity of transgenic Arabidopsis. Overexpression of CnANT in Arabidopsis induced hormone free regeneration of explants. Furthermore, ectopic expression of CnANT enhanced regeneration in vitro and suggested a role for this gene in cell proliferation during in vitro culture.

An assessment of observed vertical flux divergence in long-term eddy-covariance measurements over two Midwestern forest ecosystems

Vertical divergence of CO2 fluxes is observed over two Midwestern AmeriFlux forest sites. The differences in ensemble averaged hourly CO2 fluxes measured at two heights above canopy are relatively small (0.2–0.5 μmol m−2 s−1), but they are the major contributors to differences (76–256 g C m−2 or 41.8–50.6%) in estimated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in 2001. A friction velocity criterion is used in these estimates but mean flow advection is not accounted for. This study examines the effects of coordinate rotation, averaging time period, sampling frequency and co-spectral correction on CO2 fluxes measured at a single height, and on vertical flux differences measured between two heights. Both the offset in measured vertical velocity and the downflow/upflow caused by supporting tower structures in upwind directions lead to systematic over- or under-estimates of fluxes measured at a single height. An offset of 1 cm s−1 and an upflow/downflow of 1° lead to 1% and 5.6% differences in momentum fluxes and nighttime sensible heat and CO2 fluxes, respectively, but only 0.5% and 2.8% differences in daytime sensible heat and CO2 fluxes. The sign and magnitude of both offset and upflow/downflow angle vary between sonic anemometers at two measurement heights. This introduces a systematic and large bias in vertical flux differences if these effects are not corrected in the coordinate rotation. A 1 h averaging time period is shown to be appropriate for the two sites. In the daytime, the absolute magnitudes of co-spectra decrease with height in the natural frequencies of 0.02–0.1 Hz but increase in the lower frequencies (<0.01 Hz). Thus, air motions in these two frequency ranges counteract each other in determining vertical flux differences, whose magnitude and sign vary with averaging time period. At night, co-spectral densities of CO2 are more positive at the higher levels of both sites in the frequency range of 0.03–0.4 Hz and this vertical increase is also shown at most frequencies lower than 0.03 Hz. Differences in co-spectral corrections at the two heights lead to a positive shift in vertical CO2 flux differences throughout the day at both sites. At night, the vertical CO2 flux differences between two measurement heights are 20–30% and 40–60% of co-spectral corrected CO2 fluxes measured at the lower levels of the two sites, respectively. Vertical differences of CO2 flux are relatively small in the daytime. Vertical differences in estimated mean vertical advection of CO2 between the two measurement heights generally do not improve the closure of the 1D (vertical) CO2 budget in the air layer between the two measurement heights. This may imply the significance of horizontal advection. However, a reliable assessment of mean advection contributions in annual NEE estimate at these two AmeriFlux sites is currently an unsolved problem.

Understanding unconscionability in proprietary estoppel

In a series of recent cases, courts have reasserted unconscionability as the basis of proprietary estoppel and in doing so have moved away from the structured form of discretion envisaged in the classic Taylors Fashions formula. In light of these developments, this paper traces the use of unconscionability in estoppel and examines the changing role attributed to the concept. In a parallel development, in exercising their remedial discretion once a claim to estoppel has been established, the courts have emphasised the foundation of estoppel in unconscionability to assert the need for proportionality between the detriment and remedy as ‘the most essential requirement’. Collectively, the cases demonstrate a lack of transparency or consistency, which raises concerns that the courts are descending into a form of individualised discretion. These developments are of particular concern as they come at a time when commentators are predicting a ‘boom’ in estoppel to follow the introduction of electronic conveyancing.

A multiple error-correction model of housing supply

This paper considers supply dynamics in the context of the Irish residential market. The analysis, in a multiple error-correction framework, reveals that although developers did respond to disequilibrium in supply, the rate of adjustment was relatively slow. In contrast, however, disequilibrium in demand did not impact upon supply, suggesting that inelastic supply conditions could explain the prolonged nature of the boom in the Irish market. Increased elasticity in the later stages of the boom may have been a contributory factor in the extent of the house price falls observed in recent years.

An optimal inverse method using Doppler lidar measurements to estimate the surface sensible heat flux

Inverse methods are widely used in various fields of atmospheric science. However, such methods are not commonly used within the boundary-layer community, where robust observations of surface fluxes are a particular concern. We present a new technique for deriving surface sensible heat fluxes from boundary-layer turbulence observations using an inverse method. Doppler lidar observations of vertical velocity variance are combined with two well-known mixed-layer scaling forward models for a convective boundary layer (CBL). The inverse method is validated using large-eddy simulations of a CBL with increasing wind speed. The majority of the estimated heat fluxes agree within error with the proscribed heat flux, across all wind speeds tested. The method is then applied to Doppler lidar data from the Chilbolton Observatory, UK. Heat fluxes are compared with those from a mast-mounted sonic anemometer. Errors in estimated heat fluxes are on average 18 %, an improvement on previous techniques. However, a significant negative bias is observed (on average −63%) that is more pronounced in the morning. Results are improved for the fully-developed CBL later in the day, which suggests that the bias is largely related to the choice of forward model, which is kept deliberately simple for this study. Overall, the inverse method provided reasonable flux estimates for the simple case of a CBL. Results shown here demonstrate that this method has promise in utilizing ground-based remote sensing to derive surface fluxes. Extension of the method is relatively straight-forward, and could include more complex forward models, or other measurements.

The plume also rises: trajectories of pheromone plumes issuing from point sources in an orchard canopy at night

The trajectories of pheromone plumes in canopied habitats, such as orchards, have been little studied. We documented the capture of male navel orangeworm moths, Amyelois transitella, in female-baited traps positioned at 5 levels, from ground level to the canopy top, at approximately 6 m above ground, in almond orchards. Males were captured in similar proportions at all levels, suggesting that they do not favor a particular height during ranging flight. A 3-D sonic anemometer was used to establish patterns of wind flow and temperature at 6 heights from 2.08 to 6.65 m in an almond orchard with a 5 m high canopy, every 3 h over 72 h. The horizontal velocity of wind flow was highest above the canopy, where its directionality also was the most consistent. During the time of A. transitella mating (0300–0600), there was a net vertical displacement upward. Vertical buoyancy combined with only minor reductions in the distance that plumes will travel in the lower compared to the upper canopy suggest that the optimal height for release of pheromone from high-release-rate sources, such as aerosol dispensers (“puffers”), that are deployed at low densities (e.g., 3 per ha.) would be at mid or low in the canopy, thereby facilitating dispersion of disruptant throughout the canopy. Optimal placement of aerosol dispensers will vary with the behavioral ecology of the target pest; however, our results suggest that current protocols, which generally propose dispenser placement in the upper third of the canopy, should be reevaluated.

An overview on the urban boundary-layer atmosphere network in Helsinki

The Helsinki Urban Boundary-Layer Atmosphere Network (UrBAN: http://urban.fmi.fi) is a dedicated research-grade observational network where the physical processes in the atmosphere above the city are studied. Helsinki UrBAN is the most poleward intensive urban research observation network in the world and thus will allow studying some unique features such as strong seasonality. The network's key purpose is for the understanding of the physical processes in the urban boundary layer and associated fluxes of heat, momentum, moisture, and other gases. A further purpose is to secure a research-grade database, which can be used internationally to validate and develop numerical models of air quality and weather prediction. Scintillometers, a scanning Doppler lidar, ceilometers, a sodar, eddy-covariance stations, and radiometers are used. This equipment is supplemented by auxiliary measurements, which were primarily set up for general weather and/or air-quality mandatory purposes, such as vertical soundings and the operational Doppler radar network. Examples are presented as a testimony to the potential of the network for urban studies, such as (i) evidence of a stable boundary layer possibly coupled to an urban surface, (ii) the comparison of scintillometer data with sonic anemometry above an urban surface, (iii) the application of scanning lidar over a city, and (iv) combination of sodar and lidar to give a fuller range of sampling heights for boundary layer profiling.