Economic booms, trade deficits and economic policy

Many economic booms have been accompanied by realexchange rate appreciations, large trade defcits -whichhave sometimes persisted after the return to the initialexchange rate parity- and a deteriorating traded sector.Those circumstances have typically raised the questionof the de-sirability of some stabilization policy. We show that the dynamics induced by an expectedproductivity shock in an economy where the capital stockis non-mobile across sectors, match those circumstances.Furthermore, we obtain that credit market imperfectionstend to exacerbate trade deficits, and to cause aninefficient capacity reduction in the traded sector.Some stabilization policies are explored.

Comunidade política, imigração e coesão social: o caso português

O presente trabalho é um contributo para entender em que medida a existência de múltiplas pertenças étnico-culturais na comunidade política é conciliável com a manutenção de uma comunidade socialmente coesa e politicamente unitária. Tendo em conta a realidade imigratória em Portugal, procurou-se saber quais os laços que ligam os imigrantes à comunidade política e em que medida eles podem ser mobilizados para a integração dos imigrantes num projecto comum de vivência em território nacional. Metodologicamente, este trabalho tem por base a análise qualitativa e quantitativa das políticas e medidas adoptados em Portugal em matéria de imigração, bem como, os resultados do trabalho empírico por nós realizado junto de dois grupos de imigrantes (brasileiros e cabo-verdianos) residentes na área metropolitana de Lisboa, assim como os resultados de um questionário enviado às associações de imigrantes. Os resultados da pesquisa apontam para a existência de uma certa ambivalência política no processo de integração dos imigrantes, a qual se reflecte de algum modo na forma como os nacionais e os imigrantes valorizam o contributo dos imigrantes para a sociedade portuguesa, sobressaindo uma ideia difusa generalizada de que os custos da imigração não compensam os seus benefícios, o que provavelmente afectará o relacionamento recíproco. Apesar de situações objectivas de desigualdade social e económica e da percepção de discriminação existente entre os imigrantes, é possível identificar uma progressiva universalização da cidadania e a aceitação formal das tradições religiosas e culturais dos imigrantes, mesmo não sendo o parlamento português representativo dessa diversidade. Deste modo, afigura-se ser possível assegurar direitos específicos de protecção das minorias étnicas e culturais sem que seja necessária a etnicização ou a culturalização da representação política e os princípios gerais que estruturam a comunidade política nacional poderão ser suficientes para assegurar essa protecção. No entanto, existem indícios que sugerem que o acesso dos imigrantes à esfera pública poderá não ser fácil, o que se poderá traduzir na visibilidade e na discussão pública das suas reivindicações, com consequências a nível do tipo de políticas de integração adoptadas em Portugal.

Trade, extent of the market and economic growth 1960-1996

We find that trade and domestic market size are robust determinants of economic growth overthe 1960-1996 period when trade openness is measured as the US dollar value of imports andexports relative to GDP in PPP US$ ('real openness'). When trade openness is measured asthe US dollar value of imports and exports relative to GDP in exchange rate US$ ('nominalopenness') however, trade and the size of domestic markets are often non-robust determinantsof growth. We argue that real openness is the more appropriate measure of trade and that ourempirical results should be seen as evidence in favor of the extent-of-the-market hypothesis.

The impact of women's educational and economic resources on fertility. Spanish birth cohorts 1901-1950

In this chapter we portray the effects of female education and professional achievementon fertility decline in Spain over the period 1920-1980 (birth cohorts of 1900-1950).A longitudinal econometric approach is used to test the hypothesis that the effectsof women s education in the revaluing of their time had a very significant influence onfertility decline. Although in the historical context presented here improvements inschooling were on a modest scale, they were continuous (with the interruption of theCivil War) and had a significant impact in shaping a model of low fertility in Spain. Wealso stress the relevance of this result in a context such as the Spanish for which liberalvalues were absent, fertility control practices were forbidden, and labour forceparticipation of women was politically and socially constrained.

Male beach workers and western female tourists : livelihood strategies in Kenya's south coast region

Recent years have seen an emerging knowledge base and increasing public interest and awareness of sexual-economic relationships between local men and Western women, in different touristic regions around the world. However, to date, Western perspectives on the phenomenon make up the bulk of the existent literature. Questioning the dominant discourse of 'romance tourism' and representations of male participants as 'victims-opportunists', this dissertation explores male beach workers' experiences with, and perspectives on sexual-economic relationships between Kenyan men and visiting Western women in Kenya's South Coast region. The men were not considered in isolation; their experiences and perspectives are situated in relation to their family ties, social networks and the political economy of beach tourism. The study shows that locally these relationships are clearly understood as livelihood strategies for the visited. Men seek to establish long-term intimate relationships with female tourists as a means to accessing life's basic necessities for themselves and for their families and overall to improve their standards of living. It is argued that these relationships are a response to the poverty and inequalities generated by socio-economic changes over time. They are also a response to local gender role prescriptions that hinge male social value on men's capacity to marry, procreate and provide intergenerational social and economic support. The men's parallel quest for non-sexual economically motivated friendships with visiting foreign tourists termed "family friends" is a salient finding, that serves to reinforce the finding that the sexual- economic relationships are above all livelihood strategies. Résumé Ces dernières années ont vu l'émergence d'une base de connaissance, ainsi que d'un intérêt et d'une prise de conscience accrue du public, à l'égard des relations économico-sexuelles entre hommes locaux et femmes occidentales, dans différentes régions touristiques du monde. Cependant, à ce jour, des perspectives occidentales sur ce phénomène constituent l'essentiel de la littérature existante. En remettant en question le discours dominant du «romance tourism» (tourisme sentimental) et les représentations qui conçoivent les hommes participants comme étant 'victimes-opportunistes', cette thèse explore les expériences, et les visions qu'ont les travailleurs de plage sur les relations économico-sexuelles entre hommes Kenyans et femmes Occidentales dans la région de la côte sud du Kenya. Les hommes n'ont pas été considérés de manière isolée; leurs expériences et leurs perspectives sont situées par rapport à leur liens familiaux, leur réseaux sociaux et aussi par rapport à l'économie politique du tourisme balnéaire. L'étude montre que sur place ces relations sont clairement conçues comme des stratégies de survie pour les participants hôtes. Les hommes cherchent à établir des relations de long durée avec des femmes touristes comme moyen d'accéder à des biens et des services qui constituent des nécessités de bases, pour eux et pour leur familles et globalement pour relever leur niveau de vie! L'étude fait valoir que ces relations sont une réponse à la pauvreté et aux inégalités sociales crées par des dynamiques socio-économiques au fil du temps. Elles sont aussi une réponse au prescriptions sociales locales par lesquelles la valeur sociale masculine est définie à travers la capacité des hommes à se marier, à procréer et d'assurer un soutien intergénérationnel social et économique. La quête, en parallèle, de relations d'amitiés non-sexuelles à motivation économique, dénommé « family friends », par des hommes, est un résultat saillant de cette étude qui vient renforcer l'observation que les relations économico-sexuelles relèvent avant tout des stratégies de survie.

Social and medical vulnerability factors of emergency department frequent users in a universal health insurance system

Objectifs - Identifier les facteurs de vulnérabilité sociaux et médicaux associés au recours multiple aux consultations des urgences. - Déterminer si les patients à recours multiple sont plus à même de combiner ces facteurs dans un système d'assurance universelle. Méthode Il s'agit d'une étude cas-contrôle rétrospective basée sur l'étude de dossiers médico-administratifs comparant des échantillons randomisés de patients à recours multiple à des patients n'appartenant pas à cette catégorie, au sein des urgences du Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois et de la Policlinique Médicale Universitaire de Lausanne. Les auteurs ont défini les patients à recours multiple comme comptabilisant au moins quatre consultations aux urgences durant les douze mois précédents. Les patients adultes (>18 ans) ayant consulté les urgences entre avril 2008 et mars 2009 (période d'étude) étaient inclus ; ceux quittant les urgences sans décharge médicale étaient exclus. Pour chaque patient, le premier dossier d'urgence informatisé inclus dans la période d'étude était sélectionné pour l'extraction des données. Outre les variables démographiques de base, les variables d'intérêt comprennent des caractéristiques sociales (emploi, type de résidence) et médicales (diagnostic principal aux urgences). Les facteurs sociaux et médicaux significatifs ont été utilisés dans la construction d'un modèle de régression logistique, afin de déterminer les facteurs associés avec le recours multiple aux urgences. De plus, la combinaison des facteurs sociaux et médicaux a été étudiée. Résultats Au total, 359/Γ591 patients à recours multiple et 360/34'263 contrôles ont été sélectionnés. Les patients à recours multiple représentaient moins d'un vingtième de tous les patients des urgences (4.4%), mais engendraient 12.1% de toutes les consultations (5'813/48'117), avec un record de 73 consultations. Aucune différence en termes d'âge ou de genre n'est apparue, mais davantage de patients à recours multiples étaient d'une nationalité autre que suisse ou européenne (n=117 [32.6%] vs n=83 [23.1%], p=0.003). L'analyse multivariée a montré que les facteurs de vulnérabilité sociaux et médicaux les plus fortement associés au recours multiple aux urgences étaient : être sous tutelle (Odds ratio [OR] ajusté = 15.8; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95% = 1.7 à 147.3), habiter plus proche des urgences (OR ajusté = 4.6; IC95% = 2.8 à 7.6), être non assuré (OR ajusté = 2.5; IC95% = 1.1 à 5.8), être sans emploi ou dépendant de l'aide sociale (OR ajusté = 2.1; IC95% = 1.3 à 3.4), le nombre d'hospitalisations psychiatriques (OR ajusté = 4.6; IC95% = 1.5 à 14.1), ainsi que le recours à au moins cinq départements cliniques différents durant une période de douze mois (OR ajusté = 4.5; IC95% = 2.5 à 8.1). Le fait de comptabiliser deux sur quatre facteurs sociaux augmente la vraisemblance du recours multiple aux urgences (OR ajusté = 5.4; IC95% = 2.9 à 9.9) ; des résultats similaires ont été trouvés pour les facteurs médicaux (OR ajusté = 7.9; IC95% = 4.6 à 13.4). La combinaison de facteurs sociaux et médicaux est fortement associée au recours multiple aux urgences, puisque les patients à recours multiple étaient dix fois plus à même d'en comptabiliser trois d'entre eux (sur un total de huit facteurs, IC95% = 5.1 à 19.6). Conclusion Les patients à recours multiple aux urgences représentent une proportion modérée des consultations aux urgences du Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois et de la Policlinique Médicale Universitaire de Lausanne. Les facteurs de vulnérabilité sociaux et médicaux sont associés au recours multiple aux urgences. En outre, les patients à recours multiple sont plus à même de combiner les vulnérabilités sociale et médicale que les autres. Des stratégies basées sur le case management pourraient améliorer la prise en charge des patients à recours multiple avec leurs vulnérabilités afin de prévenir les inégalités dans le système de soins ainsi que les coûts relatifs.

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Deficit, human capital and economic growth dynamics

Long-run economic growth arouses a great interest since it can shed light on the income-path of an economy and try to explain the large differences in income we observe across countries and over time. The neoclassical model has been followed by several endogenous growth models which, contrarily to the former, seem to predict that economies with similar preferences and technological level, do not necessarily tend to converge to similar per capita income levels. This paper attempts to show a possible mechanismthrough which macroeconomic disequilibria and inefficiencies, represented by budget deficits, may hinder human capital accumulation and therefore economic growth. Using a mixed education system, deficit is characterized as a bug agent which may end up sharply reducing the resources devoted to education and training. The paper goes a step further from the literature on deficit by introducing a rich dynamic analysis of the effects of a deficit reduction on different economic aspects.Following a simple growth model and allowing for slight changes in the law of human capital accumulation, we reach a point where deficit might sharply reduce human capital accumulation. On the other hand, a deficit reduction carried on for a long time, taking that reduction as a more efficient management of the economy, may prove useful in inducing endogenous growth. Empirical evidence for a sample of countries seems to support the theoretical assumptions in the model: (1) evidence on an inverse relationship betweendeficit and human capital accumulation, (2) presence of a strongly negative associationbetween the quantity of deficit in the economy and the rate of growth. They may prove a certain role for budget deficit in economic growth

Deficit, human capital and economic growth dynamics

Long-run economic growth arouses a great interest since it can shed light on the income-path of an economy and try to explain the large differences in income we observe across countries and over time. The neoclassical model has been followed by several endogenous growth models which, contrarily to the former, seem to predict that economies with similar preferences and technological level, do not necessarily tend to converge to similar per capita income levels. This paper attempts to show a possible mechanismthrough which macroeconomic disequilibria and inefficiencies, represented by budget deficits, may hinder human capital accumulation and therefore economic growth. Using a mixed education system, deficit is characterized as a bug agent which may end up sharply reducing the resources devoted to education and training. The paper goes a step further from the literature on deficit by introducing a rich dynamic analysis of the effects of a deficit reduction on different economic aspects.Following a simple growth model and allowing for slight changes in the law of human capital accumulation, we reach a point where deficit might sharply reduce human capital accumulation. On the other hand, a deficit reduction carried on for a long time, taking that reduction as a more efficient management of the economy, may prove useful in inducing endogenous growth. Empirical evidence for a sample of countries seems to support the theoretical assumptions in the model: (1) evidence on an inverse relationship betweendeficit and human capital accumulation, (2) presence of a strongly negative associationbetween the quantity of deficit in the economy and the rate of growth. They may prove a certain role for budget deficit in economic growth

Organic and Nitrogen Fertilization of Soil under ‘Syrah’ Grapevine: Effects on Soil Chemical Properties and Nitrate Concentration

ABSTRACT Viticulture is an activity of great social and economic importance in the lower-middle region of the São Francisco River valley in northeastern Brazil. In this region, the fertility of soils under vineyards is generally poor. To assess the effects of organic and nitrogen fertilization on chemical properties and nitrate concentrations in an Argissolo Vermelho-Amarelo (Typic Plinthustalf), a field experiment was carried out in Petrolina, Pernambuco, on Syrah grapevines. Treatments consisted of two rates of organic fertilizer (0 and 30 m3 ha-1) and five N rates (0, 10, 20, 40, and 80 kg ha-1), in a randomized block design arranged in split plots, with five replications. The organic fertilizer levels represented the main plots and the N levels, the subplots. The source of N was urea and the source of organic fertilizer was goat manure. Irrigation was applied through a drip system and N by fertigation. At the end of the third growing season, soil chemical properties were determined and nitrate concentration in the soil solution (extracted by porous cups) was determined. Organic fertilization increased organic matter, pH, EC, P, K, Ca, Mg, Mn, sum of bases, base saturation, and CEC, but decreased exchangeable Cu concentration in the soil by complexation of Cu in the organic matter. Organic fertilization raised the nitrate concentration in the 0.20-0.40 m soil layer, making it leachable. Nitrate concentration in the soil increased as N rates increased, up to more than 300 mg kg-1 in soil and nearly 800 mg L-1 in the soil solution, becoming prone to leaching losses.

Schizotypy as an organizing framework for social and affective sciences

Schizotypy, defined in terms of commonly occurring personality traits related to the schizophrenia spectrum, has been an important construct for understanding the neurodevelopment and stress-diathesis of schizophrenia. However, as schizotypy nears its sixth decade of application, it is important to acknowledge its impressively rich literature accumulating outside of schizophrenia research. In this article, we make the case that schizotypy has considerable potential as a conceptual framework for understanding individual differences in affective and social functions beyond those directly involved in schizophrenia spectrum pathology. This case is predicated on (a) a burgeoning literature noting anomalies in a wide range of social functioning, affiliative, positive and negative emotional, expressive, and social cognitive systems, (b) practical and methodological features associated with schizotypy research that help facilitate empirical investigation, and (c) close ties to theoretical constructs of central importance to affective and social science (eg, stress diathesis, neural compensation). We highlight recent schizotypy research, ie providing insight into the nature of affective and social systems more generally. This includes current efforts to clarify the neurodevelopmental, neurobiological, and psychological underpinnings of affiliative drives, hedonic capacity, social cognition, and stress responsivity systems. Additionally, we discuss neural compensatory and resilience factors that may mitigate the expression of stress-diathesis and functional outcome, and highlight schizotypy's potential role for understanding cultural determinants of social and affective functions.

Social and temporal organization in an ant colony

Ant colonies are known for their complex and efficient social organization that com-pletely lacks hierarchical structure. However, due to methodological difficulties in follow¬ing all ants of a colony, it was until now impossible to investigate the social and temporal organization of colonies. We developed a tracking system that allows tracking the posi¬tions and orientations of several hundred individually labeled ants continuously, providing for the first time quantitative long term data on all individuals of a colony. These data permit reconstructing trajectories, activity patterns and social networks of all ants in a colony and enable us to investigate ant behavior quantitatively in previously unpreceded ways. By analyzing the spatial positions and social interactions of all ants in six colonies for 41 days we show that ant colonies are organized in groups of nurses, nest patrollers and foragers. Workers of each group were highly interconnected and occupied similar spa¬tial locations in the nest. Groups strongly segregated spatially, and were characterized by unique behavioral signatures. Nurses spent most of their time on the brood. Nest patrollers frequently visited the rubbish pile, and foragers frequently visited the forag¬ing arena. In addition nurses were on average younger than nest patrollers who were, in turn, younger than foragers. We further show that workers had a preferred behav¬ioral trajectory and moved from nursing to nest patrolling, and from nest patrolling to foraging. By analyzing the activity patterns of all ants we show that only a third of all workers in a colony exhibit circadian rhythms and that these rhythms shortened by on av¬erage 42 minutes in constant darkness, thereby demonstrating the presence of a functional endogenous clock. Most rhythmic workers were foragers suggesting that rhythmicity is tightly associated with task. Nurses and nest patrollers were arrhythmic which most likely reflects plasticity of the circadian clock, as isolated workers in many species exhibit circadian rhythmicity. Altogether our results emphasize that ant colonies, despite their chaotic appearance, repose on a strong underlying social and temporal organization. - Les colonies de fourmis sont connues pour leur organisation sociale complexe et effi-cace, charactérisée par un manque absolu de structure hiérarchique. Cependant, puisqu'il est techniquement très difficile de suivre toutes les fourmis d'une colonie, il a été jusqu'à maintenant impossible d'étudier l'organisation sociale et temporelle des colonies de four-mis. Nous avons développé un système qui permet d'extraire en temps réel à partir d'images vidéo les positions et orientations de plusieurs centaines de fourmis marquées individuellement. Nous avons pu ainsi générer pour la première fois des données quanti-tatives et longitudinales relatives à des fourmis appartenant à une colonie. Ces données nous ont permis de reconstruire la trajectoire et l'activité de chaque fourmi ainsi que ses réseaux sociaux. Ceci nous a permis d'étudier de manière exhaustive et objective le com-portement de tous les individus d'une colonie. En analysant les données spatiales et les interactions sociales de toutes les fourmis de six colonies qui ont été filmées pendant 41 jours, nous montrons que les fourmis d'une même colonie se répartissent en trois groupes: nourrices, patrouilleuses et approvisionneuses. Les fourmis d'un même groupe interagis-sent fréquemment et occupent le même espace à l'intérieur du nid. L'espace propre à un groupe se recoupe très peu avec celui des autres. Chaque groupe est caractérisé par un comportement typique. Les nourrices s'affairent surtout autour du couvain. Les pa-trouilleuses font de fréquents déplacements vers le tas d'ordures, et les approvisionneuses sortent souvent du nid. Les nourrices sont en moyenne plus jeunes que les patrouilleuses qui, à leur tour, sont plus jeunes que les approvisionneuses. De plus, nous montrons que les ouvrières changent de tâche au cours de leur vie, passant de nourrice à patrouilleuse puis à approvisionneuse. En analysant l'activité de chaque fourmi, nous montrons que seulement un tiers des ouvrières d'une colonie présente des rythmes circadiens et que ces rythmes diminuent en moyenne de 42 minutes lorsqu'il y a obscurité constante, ce qui démontre ainsi la présence d'une horloge endogène. De plus, la plupart des approvi¬sionneuses ont une activité rythmique alors que les nourrices et patrouilleuses présentent une activité arythmique, ce qui suggère que la rythmicité est étroitement associée à la tâche. L'arythmie des nourrices et patrouilleuses repose probablement sur une plasticité de l'horloge endogène car des ouvrières de nombreuses espèces font preuve d'une ryth¬micité circadienne lorsqu'elles sont isolées de la colonie. Dans l'ensemble nos résultats révèlent qu'une colonie de fourmis se fonde sur une solide organisation sociale et tem¬porelle malgré son apparence chaotique.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.