Consistency of epidemiologic estimates

Background: The epidemiology of a disease describes numbers of people becoming incident, being prevalent, recovering, surviving, and dying from the disease or from other causes. As a matter of accounting principle, the inflow, stock, and outflows must be compatible, and if we could observe completely every person involved, the epidemiologic estimates describing the disease would be consistent. Lack of consistency is an indicator for possible measurement error. Methods: We examined the consistency of estimates of incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of dementia from the Rotterdam Study. We used the incidence and excess mortality estimates to calculate with a mathematical disease model a predicted prevalence, and compared the predicted to the observed prevalence. Results: Predicted prevalence is in most age groups lower than observed, and the difference between them is significant for some age groups. Conclusions: The observed discrepancy could be due to overestimates of prevalence or excess mortality, or an underestimate of incidence, or a combination of all three. We conclude from an analysis of possible causes that it is not possible to say which contributes most to the discrepancy. Estimating dementia incidence in an aging cohort presents a dilemma: with a short follow-up border-line incident cases are easily missed, and with longer follow-up measurement problems increase due to the associated aging of the cohort. Checking for consistency is a useful strategy to signal possible measurement error, but some sources of error may be impossible to avoid.

Mapping the emergence of heart disease in a black, urban population in Africa: The Heart of Soweto Study

Background: There is increasing evidence that many populations in the developing world are in epidemiologic transition with the subsequent emergence of more affluent disease states. The Heart of Soweto Study will systematically investigate the emergence of heart disease (HD) in a large urban population in South Africa. Methods: Part of the conurbation of Johannesburg, South Africa, Soweto is a predominantly Black African community of I million individuals. During an initial two year period, all individuals presenting to the local Baragwanath Hospital (3500 beds) with any form of HD will be studied. Demographic and diagnostic coding data in those with pre-established HD will form an abbreviated clinical registry of > 12,000 prevalent cases. Similarly, socio-demographic, clinical and diagnostic data (e.g. echocardiography and ECG) in newly diagnosed patients will form a more detailed clinical registry of > 5000 incident cases. Sub-studies of the relationship between HIV status and H D and the optimal management of chronic heart failure will also be performed. Results: These data will provide a unique insight into the causes and consequences of a broad spectrum of HD-related conditions in a developing world community in epidemiologic transition. Initially documented Population rates, in addition to detailed examinations of the underlying risk factors and causes of HD-related morbidity/mortality will provide an important platform for future stages of the study: a community-based, population screening program and culturally specific primary and secondary programs of care. Conclusion: There is an urgent need to systematically track the emergence of HD in the developing world. Initially involving more than 15,000 individuals, the unique Heart of Soweto Study has the potential to provide a wealth of information in this regard. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Participants who left a multiple-wave cohort study had similar baseline characteristics to participants who returned

PURPOSE: Research on determinants of an individual's pattern of response, considered as a profile across time, for cohort studies with multiple waves is limited. In this prospective population-based pregnancy cohort, we investigated baseline characteristics of participants after partitioning them according to their history of response to different interview waves. METHODS: Data are from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy 1981 to 1983 cohort, Brisbane, Australia. Complete baseline information was collected for 7223 of 7535 eligible individuals (95.9%). Follow-up occurred at 6 months, 5 years, and 14 years. Response rates were 93.0%, 72.5%, and 71.8%. Participants were allowed to leave and reenter the study. Participants were categorized as always, intermittent, or never responders. Intermittent responders were categorized further as leavers (responded at least once before leaving the study) or returners (left the study before reentering). RESULTS: Participants who always responded were older, more educated, married, Caucasian, and nonsmokers and had higher incomes. Intermittent responders shared similar baseline characteristics. Relative risk for being an intermittent responder was located between risks for always or never responding. CONCLUSIONS: Participants who left and reentered the study had baseline characteristics similar to participants who responded at least once and then left the study.

Adherence to treatment in children and adolescents with cystic fibrosis:a cross-sectional, multi-method study investigating the influence of beliefs about treatment and parental depressive symptoms

Background: Adherence to treatment is often reported to be low in children with cystic fibrosis. Adherence in cystic fibrosis is an important research area and more research is needed to better understand family barriers to adherence in order for clinicians to provide appropriate intervention. The aim of this study was to evaluate adherence to enzyme supplements, vitamins and chest physiotherapy in children with cystic fibrosis and to determine if any modifiable risk factors are associated with adherence. Methods: A sample of 100 children (≤18 years) with cystic fibrosis (44 male; median [range] 10.1 [0.2-18.6] years) and their parents were recruited to the study from the Northern Ireland Paediatric Cystic Fibrosis Centre. Adherence to enzyme supplements, vitamins and chest physiotherapy was assessed using a multi-method approach including; Medication Adherence Report Scale, pharmacy prescription refill data and general practitioner prescription issue data. Beliefs about treatments were assessed using refined versions of the Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire-specific. Parental depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Results: Using the multi-method approach 72% of children were classified as low-adherers to enzyme supplements, 59% low-adherers to vitamins and 49% low-adherers to chest physiotherapy. Variations in adherence were observed between measurement methods, treatments and respondents. Parental necessity beliefs and child age were significant independent predictors of child adherence to enzyme supplements and chest physiotherapy, but parental depressive symptoms were not found to be predictive of adherence. Conclusions: Child age and parental beliefs about treatments should be taken into account by clinicians when addressing adherence at routine clinic appointments. Low adherence is more likely to occur in older children, whereas, better adherence to cystic fibrosis therapies is more likely in children whose parents strongly believe the treatments are necessary. The necessity of treatments should be reinforced regularly to both parents and children.

Epidemiologic Features of Vulvovaginal Candidiasis among Reproductive-Age Women in India

Background. Vulvovaginal candidiasis is characterized by curd-like vaginal discharge and itching, and is associated with considerable health and economic costs. Materials and Methods. We examined the incidence, prevalence, and risk factors for vulvovaginal candidiasis among a cohort of 898 women in south India. Participants completed three study visits over six months, comprised of a structured interview and a pelvic examination. Results. The positive predictive values for diagnosis of vulvovaginal candidiasis using individual signs or symptoms were low (<19%). We did not find strong evidence for associations between sociodemographic characteristics and the prevalence of vulvovaginal candidiasis. Women clinically diagnosed with bacterial vaginosis had a higher prevalence of vulvovaginal candidiasis (Prevalence 12%, 95% CI 8.2, 15.8) compared to women assessed to be negative for bacterial vaginosis (Prevalence 6.5%, 95% 5.3, 7.6); however, differences in the prevalence of vulvovaginal candidiasis were not observed by the presence or absence of laboratory-confirmed bacterial vaginosis. Conclusions. For correct diagnosis of vulvovaginal candidiasis, laboratory confirmation of infection with Candida is necessary as well as assessment of whether the discharge has been caused by bacterial vaginosis. Studies are needed of women infected with Candida yeast species to determine the risk factors for yeast’s overgrowth.

A Study of the Behavioural and Affective Profile of Inpatient Adolescent Girls Presenting a Restrictive Anorexia Nervosa

Essai doctoral d'intégration présenté à la Faculté des Études Supérieures et Postdoctorales en vue de l'obtention du grade de Docteur en psychologie (D.Psy.), en psychologie clinique

Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States-Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci.

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted.

A Study of the Behavioural and Affective Profile of Inpatient Adolescent Girls Presenting a Restrictive Anorexia Nervosa

Essai doctoral d'intégration présenté à la Faculté des Études Supérieures et Postdoctorales en vue de l'obtention du grade de Docteur en psychologie (D.Psy.), en psychologie clinique

Validação da Versão Portuguesa da Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale for Children (CES-DC)

A Depressão na infância e adolescência, tal como na população adulta, é uma das perturbações mentais mais comuns. Uma vez que o seu aparecimento nestas faixas etárias conduz a graves consequências na idade adulta, é fundamental identificar os sintomas depressivos precocemente. Desta forma, os instrumentos de autorrelato têm um papel fundamental, uma vez que permitem com facilidade, de forma fidedigna e válida, ter acesso a formas de pensar, sentir e agir dos sujeitos. O objetivo do presente trabalho consistiu na tradução, adaptação e estudo da Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale for Children (CES-DC) (Weissman, Orvash & Padian, 1980) para os adolescentes portugueses. A amostra é constituída por 417 adolescentes, com idades compreendidas entre os 12 e os 18 anos a frequentar o 3º ciclo do ensino básio e ensino secundário. Para o estudo da validade convergente e divergente da CES-DC, foram utilizados a Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS 21) (Lovibond & Lovibond, 1995), o Children's Depresssion Inventory (CID) (Marujo, 1994) e a Students' Life Satisfaction Scale (SLSS) (Marques, Pais-Ribeiro & Lopez, 2007) que avaliam, respetivamente, os estados emocionais negativos (depressão, ansiedade e stress), a sintomatologia depressiva e a satisfação global com a vida. Os resultados obtidos mostram que a escala possui uma boa consistência interna, uma estabilidade temporal adequada, assim como uma boa validade. Sugerem, ainda, tratar-se de uma escala tridimensional: fator humor, fator interpessoal e fator felicidade. Estes dados permitem o avanço da Psicologia, no que diz respeito à avaliação e prática clínica com adolescentes. A utilidade do questionário deve ser verificada noutras faixas etárias, principalmente, nas de menos de 12 anos de idade, e também numa amostra clínica. Não obstante as limitações apontadas, os resultados sugerem que a CES-DC é um questionário útil na avaliação de sintomas depressivos nos adolescentes. / Depression in children and adolescents, as well as in adults, is one of the most common mental disorders. Since its appearance in these age groups leads to serious consequences in adulthood, it is critical to identify depressive symptoms in early stages. Therefore, self-report instruments play a key role in this contexto since they allow to easily, reliably and validly have access to ways the subject thinks, feels and acts. The aim of this study was to translate, adapt and study the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale for Children (CES-DC) (Weissman, Orvash & Padian, 1980) for portuguese adolescents. The sample consists of 417 adolescents, aged between 12 and 18 years old, attending the 3rd cycle of basic education and secondary education schools. To study the convergent and divergent validity of the CES-DC, the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS 21) (Lovibond & Lovibond, 1995) was used, along with the Children's depression Inventory (CDI) (Sailor, 1994) and the Students' Life Satisfaction Scale (SLSS) (Marques, Pais-Ribeiro & Lopez, 2007) that evaluate, respectively, the negative emotional states (depression, anxiety and stress), depressive symptoms and overall satisfaction with life. The results show that the evaluated scale presents a good internal consistency, an adequate temporal stability as well as good validity. They also suggest that this is a three-dimensional scale: humor factor, interpersonal factor and happiness factor. These data allow for the progress of psychology, regarding the assessment and clinical practice among adolescents. The usefulness of the questionnaire should be verified in other age groups, especially in children with less than 12 years old and in a clinical sample. Despite these limitations, the results suggest that CES-DC is useful in the assessment questionnaire of depressive symptoms in adolescents.

Septic Shock Sera Containing Circulating Histones Induce Dendritic Cell–Regulated Necrosis in Fatal Septic Shock Patients

International audience

Self-reported vaccination in the elderly : SABE Bogotá study, Colombia

Objectives: To determine the frequency of vaccination in older adults within the city of Bogotá and to estimate the association with sociodemographic and health factors. Methods: This is a secondary data analysis from the SABE-Bogotá Study, a cross-sectional population-based study that included a total of 2,000 persons aged 60 years. Weighted percentages for self-reported vaccination [influenza, pneumococcal, tetanus] were determined. The association between vaccination and covariates was evaluate by logistic regression models. Results: A total of 73.0% of respondents received influenza, 57.8% pneumococcal and 47.6% tetanus vaccine. Factors independently associated with vaccination included: 1- age (65-74 years had higher odds of receiving vaccinations, compared to 60-64 years; 2- socioeconomic status (SES) (higher SES had lower odds of having influenza and pneumococcal vaccines, compared to those with lower SES); 3- health insurance (those with contributive or subsidized health insurance had higher odds (between 3 and 5 times higher) of having vaccinations, compared to those with no insurance); 4- older adults with better functional status (greater Lawton scores) had increased odds for all vaccinations; 5- older adults with higher comorbidity had increased odds for influenza and pneumococcal vaccinations. Conclusion: Vaccination campaigns should be strengthened to increase vaccination coverage, especially in the group more reticent to vaccination or vulnerable to reach it such as the disable elder.

Subject response rates in case-control studies of cancer : time trends, study design determinants, and quality of reporting

Objectifs: Examiner les tendances temporelles, les déterminants en lien avec le design des études et la qualité des taux de réponse rapportés dans des études cas-témoins sur le cancer publiées lors des 30 dernières années. Méthodes: Une revue des études cas-témoins sur le cancer a été menée. Les critères d'inclusion étaient la publication (i) dans l’un de 15 grands périodiques ciblés et (ii) lors de quatre périodes de publication (1984-1986, 1995, 2005 et 2013) couvrant trois décennies. 370 études ont été sélectionnées et examinées. La méthodologie en lien avec le recrutement des sujets et la collecte de données, les caractéristiques de la population, les taux de participation et les raisons de la non-participation ont été extraites de ces études. Des statistiques descriptives ont été utilisées pour résumer la qualité des taux de réponse rapportés (en fonction de la quantité d’information disponible), les tendances temporelles et les déterminants des taux de réponse; des modèles de régression linéaire ont été utilisés pour analyser les tendances temporelles et les déterminants des taux de participation. Résultats: Dans l'ensemble, les qualités des taux de réponse rapportés et des raisons de non-participation étaient très faible, particulièrement chez les témoins. La participation a diminué au cours des 30 dernières années, et cette baisse est plus marquée dans les études menées après 2000. Lorsque l'on compare les taux de réponse dans les études récentes a ceux des études menées au cours de 1971 à 1980, il y a une plus grande baisse chez les témoins sélectionnés en population générale ( -17,04%, IC 95%: -23,17%, -10,91%) que chez les cas (-5,99%, IC 95%: -11,50%, -0,48%). Les déterminants statistiquement significatifs du taux de réponse chez les cas étaient: le type de cancer examiné, la localisation géographique de la population de l'étude, et le mode de collecte des données. Le seul déterminant statistiquement significatif du taux de réponse chez les témoins hospitaliers était leur localisation géographique. Le seul déterminant statistiquement significatif du taux de participation chez les témoins sélectionnés en population générale était le type de répondant (sujet uniquement ou accompagné d’une tierce personne). Conclusion: Le taux de participation dans les études cas-témoins sur le cancer semble avoir diminué au cours des 30 dernières années et cette baisse serait plus marquée dans les études récentes. Afin d'évaluer le niveau réel de non-participation et ses déterminants, ainsi que l'impact de la non-participation sur la validité des études, il est nécessaire que les études publiées utilisent une approche normalisée pour calculer leurs taux de participation et qu’elles rapportent ceux-ci de façon transparente.

Subject response rates in case-control studies of cancer : time trends, study design determinants, and quality of reporting

Objectifs: Examiner les tendances temporelles, les déterminants en lien avec le design des études et la qualité des taux de réponse rapportés dans des études cas-témoins sur le cancer publiées lors des 30 dernières années. Méthodes: Une revue des études cas-témoins sur le cancer a été menée. Les critères d'inclusion étaient la publication (i) dans l’un de 15 grands périodiques ciblés et (ii) lors de quatre périodes de publication (1984-1986, 1995, 2005 et 2013) couvrant trois décennies. 370 études ont été sélectionnées et examinées. La méthodologie en lien avec le recrutement des sujets et la collecte de données, les caractéristiques de la population, les taux de participation et les raisons de la non-participation ont été extraites de ces études. Des statistiques descriptives ont été utilisées pour résumer la qualité des taux de réponse rapportés (en fonction de la quantité d’information disponible), les tendances temporelles et les déterminants des taux de réponse; des modèles de régression linéaire ont été utilisés pour analyser les tendances temporelles et les déterminants des taux de participation. Résultats: Dans l'ensemble, les qualités des taux de réponse rapportés et des raisons de non-participation étaient très faible, particulièrement chez les témoins. La participation a diminué au cours des 30 dernières années, et cette baisse est plus marquée dans les études menées après 2000. Lorsque l'on compare les taux de réponse dans les études récentes a ceux des études menées au cours de 1971 à 1980, il y a une plus grande baisse chez les témoins sélectionnés en population générale ( -17,04%, IC 95%: -23,17%, -10,91%) que chez les cas (-5,99%, IC 95%: -11,50%, -0,48%). Les déterminants statistiquement significatifs du taux de réponse chez les cas étaient: le type de cancer examiné, la localisation géographique de la population de l'étude, et le mode de collecte des données. Le seul déterminant statistiquement significatif du taux de réponse chez les témoins hospitaliers était leur localisation géographique. Le seul déterminant statistiquement significatif du taux de participation chez les témoins sélectionnés en population générale était le type de répondant (sujet uniquement ou accompagné d’une tierce personne). Conclusion: Le taux de participation dans les études cas-témoins sur le cancer semble avoir diminué au cours des 30 dernières années et cette baisse serait plus marquée dans les études récentes. Afin d'évaluer le niveau réel de non-participation et ses déterminants, ainsi que l'impact de la non-participation sur la validité des études, il est nécessaire que les études publiées utilisent une approche normalisée pour calculer leurs taux de participation et qu’elles rapportent ceux-ci de façon transparente.

Estudio conformacional de péptidos modificados de las proteínas STARP, CelTOS, TRSP y SERA 5 de Plasmodium falciparum y su relación con una respuesta inmune en malaria

El desarrollo de una vacuna contra malaria es un área de exploración activa pero con enormes retos debido especialmente a la complejidad del ciclo del parásito. Así, es necesario bloquear las diferentes etapas de la invasión que tiene el Plasmodium falciparum y extraer de ellas la mayor información posible de la artillería que utiliza para su ataque. Para esto, péptidos de las proteínas STARP, CelTOS y TRSP (del esporozoito) y SERA 5 (del merozoito) que tienen alta afinidad de unión a células HepG2 y a glóbulos rojos respectivamente (conocidos como cHABPs), han sido modificados (conocidos como mHABPs), sintetizados y evaluados a nivel de respuesta inmune en monos Aotus así como estudiados en su conformación estructural por RMN de 1H. Los resultados muestran que los péptidos nativos no son inmunogénicos, pero pueden inducir altos títulos de anticuerpos cuando sus residuos críticos o sus vecinos son reemplazados por otro con un volumen y masa similar, pero diferente polaridad. El estudio conformacional pone de manifiesto que las estructuras de los péptidos nativos son diferentes de sus péptidos modificados ya sea que muestren regiones estructuradas más cortas o más largas o que no presenten ninguna, en comparación con sus análogos modificados altamente inmunogénicos. Las características estereoquímicas particulares en las cadenas laterales de algunos residuos de aminoácidos de estos péptidos modificados así como los rasgos fisicoquímicos parecen jugar un rol importante en la respuesta inmune apropiada cuando estos fueron inmunizados en grupos de monos Aotus confiriendo un avance al diseño de una vacuna contra malaria totalmente eficaz.

Study of the allergenic profile of pollen from Platanus hybrida in the city of Evora, Portugal

Background and Aim: Although grasses and olive are the most relevant allergenic species in the Alentejo region, aggravation of allergic symptoms in the early spring, unrelated with those species pollen seasons, has been reported, particularly in urban environment. Plane trees, hence pollen, are highly abundant in the city of Évora, nonetheless allergen pollen profile has not yet been evaluated. The aim of this work was to characterize the allergen profile of pollen from Platanus hybrida, one of the most representative species in Evora showing pollination prior to the main pollen season in Alentejo. Methods: Pollen from Platanus hybrida and Dactylis glomerata was extracted with ammonium bicarbonate buffer, lyophilized and stored at -80ºC until analysis. Protein content was determined by the Bradford method. SDS-PAGE followed by western blot, using allergic patient sera (obtained from the Hospital do Espírito Santo de Évora – HESE), were performed to evaluate the allergen profile of the pollen. Sensitization and cross-reactivity was assessed by solid phase immunoblot. Results: Half of the patient exhibited sensitization to pollen extracts of P. Hybrida. Western blot have shown several immunoreactive bands in the Mr 10-90 kDa range. Immunoreactive bands were also observed in the protein profile according to the pI in the pI range 4.0-6.1. Cross-reactivity of P. hybrida with D. glomerata was found. Although several bands are common to D. glomerata, a band with ~50kDa was observed in P. hybrida but not in D. glometata. Conclusion: These results evidenced allergens found in P. hybrida pollen. Moreover, cross–reactivity between P. hybrida and highly allergenic species such as D. glomerata was found which probably contributes for aggravation of pollinosis in the early spring. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by FEDER through the “Programa Operacional Fatores de Competitividade – COMPETE” (Strategic projects of ICAAM and ICT 2013-2015).