Evolution of a debris flow channel monitored using a 3D terrestrial laser scanner

Like numerous torrents in mountainous regions, the Illgraben creek (canton of Wallis, SW Switzerland) produces almost every year several debris flows. The total area of the active catchment is only 4.7 km², but large events ranging from 50'000 to 400'000 m³ are common (Zimmermann 2000). Consequently, the pathway of the main channel often changes suddenly. One single event can for instance fill the whole river bed and dig new several-meters-deep channels somewhere else (Bardou et al. 2003). The quantification of both, the rhythm and the magnitude of these changes, is very important to assess the variability of the bed's cross section and long profile. These parameters are indispensable for numerical modelling, as they should be considered as initial conditions. To monitor the channel evolution an Optech ILRIS 3D terrestrial laser scanner (LIDAR) was used. LIDAR permits to make a complete high precision 3D model of the channel and its surroundings by scanning it from different view points. The 3D data are treated and interpreted with the software Polyworks from Innovmetric Software Inc. Sequential 3D models allow for the determination of the variation in the bed's cross section and long profile. These data will afterwards be used to quantify the erosion and the deposition in the torrent reaches. To complete the chronological evolution of the landforms, precise digital terrain models, obtained by high resolution photogrammetry based on old aerial photographs, will be used. A 500 m long section of the Illgraben channel was scanned on 18th of August 2005 and on 7th of April 2006. These two data sets permit identifying the changes of the channel that occurred during the winter season. An upcoming scanning campaign in September 2006 will allow for the determination of the changes during this summer. Preliminary results show huge variations in the pathway of the Illgraben channel, as well as important vertical and lateral erosion of the river bed. Here we present the results of a river bank on the left (north-western) flank of the channel (Figure 1). For the August 2005 model the scans from 3 viewpoints were superposed, whereas the April 2006 3D image was obtained by combining 5 separate scans. The bank was eroded. The bank got eroded essentially on its left part (up to 6.3 m), where it is hit by the river and the debris flows (Figures 2 and 3). A debris cone has also formed (Figure 3), which suggests that a part of the bank erosion is due to shallow landslides. They probably occur when the river erosion creates an undercut slope. These geometrical data allow for the monitoring of the alluvial dynamics (i.e. aggradation and degradation) on different time scales and the influence of debris flows occurrence on these changes. Finally, the resistance against erosion of the bed's cross section and long profile will be analysed to assess the variability of these two key parameters. This information may then be used in debris flow simulation.

Adaptive search and information updating in sequential mate choice

Classical treatments of problems of sequential mate choice assume that the distribution of the quality of potential mates is known a priori. This assumption, made for analytical purposes, may seem unrealistic, opposing empirical data as well as evolutionary arguments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we develop a model that includes the possibility for searching individuals to learn about the distribution and in particular to update mean and variance during the search. In a constant environment, a priori knowledge of the parameter values brings strong benefits in both time needed to make a decision and average value of mate obtained. Knowing the variance yields more benefits than knowing the mean, and benefits increase with variance. However, the costs of learning become progressively lower as more time is available for choice. When parameter values differ between demes and/or searching periods, a strategy relying on fixed a priori information might lead to erroneous decisions, which confers advantages on the learning strategy. However, time for choice plays an important role as well: if a decision must be made rapidly, a fixed strategy may do better even when the fixed image does not coincide with the local parameter values. These results help in delineating the ecological-behavior context in which learning strategies may spread.

Characterization of fecal indicator bacteria in sediments cores from the largest freshwater lake of Western Europe (Lake Geneva, Switzerland)

This study characterized the fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), including Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Enteroccocus (ENT), disseminated over time in the Bay of Vidy, which is the most contaminated area of Lake Geneva. Sediments were collected from a site located at similar to 500 m from the present waste water treatment plant (WWTP) outlet pipe, in front of the former WWTP outlet pipe, which was located at only 300 m from the coastal recreational area (before 2001). E. coil and ENT were enumerated in sediment suspension using the membrane filter method. The FIB characterization was performed for human Enterococcus faecalis (E. faecalis) and Enterococcus faecium (E. faecium) and human specific bacteroides by PCR using specific primers and a matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Bacterial cultures revealed that maximum values of 35.2 x 10(8) and 6.6 x 10(6) CFU g(-1) dry sediment for E. coil and ENT, respectively, were found in the sediments deposited following eutrophication of Lake Geneva in the 1970s. whereas the WWTP started operating in 1964. The same tendency was observed for the presence of human fecal pollution: the percentage of PCR amplification with primers ESP-1/ESP-2 for E. faecalis and E. faecium indicated that more than 90% of these bacteria were from human origin. Interestingly, the PCR assays for specific-human bacteroides HF183/HF134 were positive for DNA extracted from all isolated strains of sediment surrounding WWPT outlet pipe discharge. The MALDI-TOF MS confirmed the presence of general E. coli and predominance E. faecium in isolated strains. Our results demonstrated that human fecal bacteria highly increased in the sediments contaminated with WWTP effluent following the eutrophication of Lake Geneva. Additionally, other FIB cultivable strains from animals or adapted environmental strains were detected in the sediment of the bay. The approaches used in this research are valuable to assess the temporal distribution and the source of the human fecal pollution in aquatic environments. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterization and simulation of a CdTe detector for use in PET

The Voxel Imaging PET (VIP) Path nder project got the 4 year European Research Council FP7 grant in 2010 to prove the feasibility of using CdTe detectors in a novel conceptual design of PET scanner. The work presented in this thesis is a part of the VIP project and consists of, on the one hand, the characterization of a CdTe detector in terms of energy resolution and coincidence time resolution and, on the other hand, the simulation of the setup with the single detector in order to extend the results to the full PET scanner. An energy resolution of 0.98% at 511 keV with a bias voltage of 1000 V/mm has been measured at low temperature T=-8 ºC. The coincidence time distribution of two twin detectors has been found to be as low as 6 ns FWHM for events with energies above 500 keV under the same temperature and bias conditions. The measured energy and time resolution values are compatible with similar ndings available in the literature and prove the excellent potential of CdTe for PET applications. This results have been presented in form of a poster contribution at the IEEE NSS/MIC & RTSD 2011 conference in October 2011 in Valencia and at the iWoRID 2012 conference in July 2012 in Coimbra, Portugal. They have been also submitted for publication to "Journal of Instrumentation (JINST)" in September 2012.

Calculation of Franck-Condon factors including anharmonicity: simulation of the C2 H4+ X̃2B 3u←C2 H4X̃1 Ag band in the photoelectron spectrum of ethylene

Our new simple method for calculating accurate Franck-Condon factors including nondiagonal (i.e., mode-mode) anharmonic coupling is used to simulate the C2H4+X2B 3u←C2H4X̃1 Ag band in the photoelectron spectrum. An improved vibrational basis set truncation algorithm, which permits very efficient computations, is employed. Because the torsional mode is highly anharmonic it is separated from the other modes and treated exactly. All other modes are treated through the second-order perturbation theory. The perturbation-theory corrections are significant and lead to a good agreement with experiment, although the separability assumption for torsion causes the C2 D4 results to be not as good as those for C2 H4. A variational formulation to overcome this circumstance, and deal with large anharmonicities in general, is suggested

Improved earthquake response via simulation and integrated space- and ground-based technologies: the TREMOR proposal

Earthquakes occurring around the world each year cause thousands ofdeaths, millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure, and incalculablehuman suffering. In recent years, satellite technology has been asignificant boon to response efforts following an earthquake and itsafter-effects by providing mobile communications between response teamsand remote sensing of damaged areas to disaster management organizations.In 2007, an international team of students and professionals assembledduring theInternational Space University’s Summer Session Program in Beijing, Chinato examine how satellite and ground-based technology could be betterintegrated to provide an optimised response in the event of an earthquake.The resulting Technology Resources for Earthquake MOnitoring and Response(TREMOR) proposal describes an integrative prototype response system thatwill implement mobile satellite communication hubs providing telephone anddata links between response teams, onsite telemedicine consultation foremergency first-responders, and satellite navigation systems that willlocate and track emergency vehicles and guide search-and-rescue crews. Aprototype earthquake simulation system is also proposed, integratinghistorical data, earthquake precursor data, and local geomatics andinfrastructure information to predict the damage that could occur in theevent of an earthquake. The backbone of these proposals is a comprehensiveeducation and training program to help individuals, communities andgovernments prepare in advance. The TREMOR team recommends thecoordination of these efforts through a centralised, non-governmentalorganization.

Orthotropic active strain models for the numerical simulation of cardiac biomechanics

An active strain formulation for orthotropic constitutive laws arising in cardiac mechanics modeling is introduced and studied. The passive mechanical properties of the tissue are described by the Holzapfel-Ogden relation. In the active strain formulation, the Euler-Lagrange equations for minimizing the total energy are written in terms of active and passive deformation factors, where the active part is assumed to depend, at the cell level, on the electrodynamics and on the specific orientation of the cardiac cells. The well-posedness of the linear system derived from a generic Newton iteration of the original problem is analyzed and different mechanical activation functions are considered. In addition, the active strain formulation is compared with the classical active stress formulation from both numerical and modeling perspectives. Taylor-Hood and MINI finite elements are employed to discretize the mechanical problem. The results of several numerical experiments show that the proposed formulation is mathematically consistent and is able to represent the main key features of the phenomenon, while allowing savings in computational costs.

Simulation methods with extended stability for stiff biochemical kinetics

Background: With increasing computer power, simulating the dynamics of complex systems in chemistry and biology is becoming increasingly routine. The modelling of individual reactions in (bio)chemical systems involves a large number of random events that can be simulated by the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The key quantity is the step size, or waiting time, τ, whose value inversely depends on the size of the propensities of the different channel reactions and which needs to be re-evaluated after every firing event. Such a discrete event simulation may be extremely expensive, in particular for stiff systems where τ can be very short due to the fast kinetics of some of the channel reactions. Several alternative methods have been put forward to increase the integration step size. The so-called τ-leap approach takes a larger step size by allowing all the reactions to fire, from a Poisson or Binomial distribution, within that step. Although the expected value for the different species in the reactive system is maintained with respect to more precise methods, the variance at steady state can suffer from large errors as τ grows. Results: In this paper we extend Poisson τ-leap methods to a general class of Runge-Kutta (RK) τ-leap methods. We show that with the proper selection of the coefficients, the variance of the extended τ-leap can be well-behaved, leading to significantly larger step sizes.Conclusions: The benefit of adapting the extended method to the use of RK frameworks is clear in terms of speed of calculation, as the number of evaluations of the Poisson distribution is still one set per time step, as in the original τ-leap method. The approach paves the way to explore new multiscale methods to simulate (bio)chemical systems.

Multiuser detection in a dynamic environment — Part II: Joint user identification and parameter estimation

The problem of jointly estimating the number, the identities, and the data of active users in a time-varying multiuser environment was examined in a companion paper (IEEE Trans. Information Theory, vol. 53, no. 9, September 2007), at whose core was the use of the theory of finite random sets on countable spaces. Here we extend that theory to encompass the more general problem of estimating unknown continuous parameters of the active-user signals. This problem is solved here by applying the theory of random finite sets constructed on hybrid spaces. We doso deriving Bayesian recursions that describe the evolution withtime of a posteriori densities of the unknown parameters and data.Unlike in the above cited paper, wherein one could evaluate theexact multiuser set posterior density, here the continuous-parameter Bayesian recursions do not admit closed-form expressions. To circumvent this difficulty, we develop numerical approximationsfor the receivers that are based on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)methods (“particle filtering”). Simulation results, referring to acode-divisin multiple-access (CDMA) system, are presented toillustrate the theory.

Amniotic fluid insulin-like growth factor binding-protein 3 concentration as early indicator of fetal growth restriction

Rapport de synthèse : Introduction : La croissance foetale infra-utérine dépend d'un grand nombre de facteurs maternels, placentaires et foetaux. Une inadéquation d'un ou plusieurs de ces facteurs peut induire un retard de croissance infra-utérin (RCIU) ou au contraire une macrosomie. Les principales causes de RCIU comprennent les infections maternelles, l'éclampsie, les cardiovasculopathies maternelles, la toxicomanie, les malformations foetales et les insuffisances placentaires. Les facteurs endocriniens constituent un petit pourcentage des causes de RCIU, mais méritent que l'on s'y intéresse de plus près. Les facteurs hormonaux les plus importants pour la croissance fatale sont l'insuline et les insuline-like growth factors (IGFs) et non l'hormone de croissance (GH) qui joue un rôle majeur dans la croissance postnatale. Notre attention s'est portée sur IGF-1 qui joue un rôle important dans la croissance intrautérine. Sa biodisponibilité dépend de plusieurs protéines plasmatiques, les IGF-binding proteins (IGFBP 1 à 9). IGFBP-3 est la principale de ces IGFBPs, autant d'un point de vue quantitatif que fonctionnel. Nous avons cherché à déterminer si les concentrations d'IGF-1 et d'IGFBP-3 dans le liquide amniotique au début du deuxième trimestre étaient prédictives de la croissance infra-utérine. Les gènes codant pour IGF-1 et IGFBP-3 contenant certaines séquences polymorphiques, nous avons également étudié leur influence sur la croissance foetale. L'analyse du liquide amniotique présente l'avantage de pouvoir être effectuée dès la 14ème semaine d'aménorrhée alors que la biométrie foetale échographique ne permet pas à ce stade de déceler des anomalies de la croissance infra-utérine. Méthode : Nous avons analysé des échantillons de liquide amniotique prélevés entre la 14ème et la 18ème semaine de grossesse chez 196 patientes. Les concentrations d'IGF-1 et d'IGFBP-3 ont été dosées par ELISA, les polymorphismes analysés par PCR. Ces résultats ont été ensuite analysés en fonction du poids de naissance des nouveaux-nés, répartis en trois groupes normal pour l'âge gestationnel (AGA), petit pour l'âge gestationnel (SGA) et grand pour l'âge gestationnel (LGA). Résultats : Les concentrations d'IGFBP3 dans le liquide amniotique sont significativement plus élevées (p = 0.030) dans le groupe SGA par rapport au groupe AGA, d'autant plus quand les taux sont ajustés en fonction de paramètres tels que l'âge gestationnel lors de l'amniocentèse (ANCOVA analysis : p = 0.009). La distribution du polymorphisme VNTR (variable number of tandem repeat) dans la région promotrice d'IGF-1 au sein du groupe SGA est significativement différente de celle du groupe AGA (p = 0.029). En effet, la fréquence de l'association allélique 19CA/20CA est diminuée dans le groupe SGA. Nous n'avons pas identifié de différence de distribution des séquences polymorphiques d'IGFBP-3 entre les différents groupes. Conclusion : Une concentration élevée d'IGFBP-3 dans le liquide amniotique au début du deuxième trimestre est associée à un risque plus élevé de retard de croissance alors que l'association allélique 19CA/20CA dans la région polymorphique IGF-1 VNTR est un facteur protecteur.

Population PK-guided simulation study in children exposed to drugs in human milk

Risks of significant infant drug exposure through human milk arepoorly defined due to lack of large-scale PK data. We propose to useBayesian approach based on population PK (popPK)-guided modelingand simulation for risk prediction. As a proof-of-principle study, weexploited fluoxetine milk concentration data from 25 women. popPKparameters including milk-to-plasma ratio (MP ratio) were estimatedfrom the best model. The dose of fluoxetine the breastfed infant wouldreceive through mother's milk, and infant plasma concentrations wereestimated from 1000 simulated mother-infant pairs, using randomassignment of feeding times and milk volume. A conservative estimateof CYP2D6 activity of 20% of the allometrically-adjusted adult valuewas assumed. Derived model parameters, including MP ratio were consistentwith those reported in the literature. Visual predictive check andother model diagnostics showed no signs of model misspecifications.The model simulation predicted that infant exposure levels to fluoxetinevia mother's milk were below 10% of weight-adjusted maternal therapeuticdoses in >99% of simulated infants. Predicted median ratio ofinfant-mother serum levels at steady state was 0.093 (range 0.033-0.31),consistent with literature reported values (mean=0.07; range 0-0.59).Predicted incidence of relatively high infant-mother ratio (>0.2) ofsteady-state serum fluoxetine concentrations was <1.3%. Overall, ourpredictions are consistent with clinical observations. Our approach maybe valid for other drugs, allowing in silico prediction of infant drugexposure risks through human milk. We will discuss application of thisapproach to another drug used in lactating women.

Prediction of infant drug exposure through breastfeeding: population PK modeling and simulation of fluoxetine

BACKGROUND: Risks of significant infant drug exposurethrough breastmilk are poorly defined for many drugs, and largescalepopulation data are lacking. We used population pharmacokinetics(PK) modeling to predict fluoxetine exposure levels ofinfants via mother's milk in a simulated population of 1000 motherinfantpairs.METHODS: Using our original data on fluoxetine PK of 25breastfeeding women, a population PK model was developed withNONMEM and parameters, including milk concentrations, wereestimated. An exponential distribution model was used to account forindividual variation. Simulation random and distribution-constrainedassignment of doses, dosing time, feeding intervals and milk volumewas conducted to generate 1000 mother-infant pairs with characteristicssuch as the steady-state serum concentrations (Css) and infantdose relative to the maternal weight-adjusted dose (relative infantdose: RID). Full bioavailability and a conservative point estimate of1-month-old infant CYP2D6 activity to be 20% of the adult value(adjusted by weigth) according to a recent study, were assumed forinfant Css calculations.RESULTS: A linear 2-compartment model was selected as thebest model. Derived parameters, including milk-to-plasma ratios(mean: 0.66; SD: 0.34; range, 0 - 1.1) were consistent with the valuesreported in the literature. The estimated RID was below 10% in >95%of infants. The model predicted median infant-mother Css ratio was0.096 (range 0.035 - 0.25); literature reported mean was 0.07 (range0-0.59). Moreover, the predicted incidence of infant-mother Css ratioof >0.2 was less than 1%.CONCLUSION: Our in silico model prediction is consistent withclinical observations, suggesting that substantial systemic fluoxetineexposure in infants through human milk is rare, but further analysisshould include active metabolites. Our approach may be valid forother drugs. [supported by CIHR and Swiss National Science Foundation(SNSF)]

Indicator displacement assays as molecular timers

Dynamic mixtures of Rh-dye complexes can be used to determine the history of chemical events such as the addition of ATP and ADP by UV-vis spectroscopy.