Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market

This work illustrates the influence of wind forecast errors on system costs, wind curtailment and generator dispatch in a system with high wind penetration. Realistic wind forecasts of different specified accuracy levels are created using an auto-regressive moving average model and these are then used in the creation of day-ahead unit commitment schedules. The schedules are generated for a model of the 2020 Irish electricity system with 33% wind penetration using both stochastic and deterministic approaches. Improvements in wind forecast accuracy are demonstrated to deliver: (i) clear savings in total system costs for deterministic and, to a lesser extent, stochastic scheduling; (ii) a decrease in the level of wind curtailment, with close agreement between stochastic and deterministic scheduling; and (iii) a decrease in the dispatch of open cycle gas turbine generation, evident with deterministic, and to a lesser extent, with stochastic scheduling.

Chronic opioid therapy and opioid tolerance: a new hypothesis.

Opioids are efficacious and cost-effective analgesics, but tolerance limits their effectiveness. This paper does not present any new clinical or experimental data but demonstrates that there exist ascending sensory pathways that contain few opioid receptors. These pathways are located by brain PET scans and spinal cord autoradiography. These nonopioid ascending pathways include portions of the ventral spinal thalamic tract originating in Rexed layers VI-VIII, thalamocortical fibers that project to the primary somatosensory cortex (S1), and possibly a midline dorsal column visceral pathway. One hypothesis is that opioid tolerance and opioid-induced hyperalgesia may be caused by homeostatic upregulation during opioid exposure of nonopioid-dependent ascending pain pathways. Upregulation of sensory pathways is not a new concept and has been demonstrated in individuals impaired with deafness or blindness. A second hypothesis is that adjuvant nonopioid therapies may inhibit ascending nonopioid-dependent pathways and support the clinical observations that monotherapy with opioids usually fails. The uniqueness of opioid tolerance compared to tolerance associated with other central nervous system medications and lack of tolerance from excess hormone production is discussed. Experimental work that could prove or disprove the concepts as well as flaws in the concepts is discussed.

Enhancing the Hodgkin-Huxley Equations: Simulations Based on the First Publication in the Biophysical Journal.

The experiments in the Cole and Moore article in the first issue of the Biophysical Journal provided the first independent experimental confirmation of the Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) equations. A log-log plot of the K current versus time showed that raising the HH variable n to the sixth power provided the best fit to the data. Subsequent simulations using n(6) and setting the resting potential at the in vivo value simplifies the HH equations by eliminating the leakage term. Our article also reported that the K current in response to a depolarizing step to ENa was delayed if the step was preceded by a hyperpolarization. While the interpretation of this phenomenon in the article was flawed, subsequent simulations show that the effect completely arises from the original HH equations.

Is the Species Flock Concept Operational? The Antarctic Shelf Case

There has been a significant body of literature on species flock definition but not so much about practical means to appraise them. We here apply the five criteria of Eastman and McCune for detecting species flocks in four taxonomic components of the benthic fauna of the Antarctic shelf: teleost fishes, crinoids (feather stars), echinoids (sea urchins) and crustacean arthropods. Practical limitations led us to prioritize the three historical criteria (endemicity, monophyly, species richness) over the two ecological ones (ecological diversity and habitat dominance). We propose a new protocol which includes an iterative fine-tuning of the monophyly and endemicity criteria in order to discover unsuspected flocks. As a result nine « full » species flocks (fulfilling the five criteria) are briefly described. Eight other flocks fit the three historical criteria but need to be further investigated from the ecological point of view (here called « core flocks »). The approach also shows that some candidate taxonomic components are no species flocks at all. The present study contradicts the paradigm that marine species flocks are rare. The hypothesis according to which the Antarctic shelf acts as a species flocks generator is supported, and the approach indicates paths for further ecological studies and may serve as a starting point to investigate the processes leading to flock-like patterning of biodiversity. © 2013 Lecointre et al.

Global carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters

Carbon dioxide (CO2) transfer from inland waters to the atmosphere, known as CO2 evasion, is a component of the global carbon cycle. Global estimates of CO2 evasion have been hampered, however, by the lack of a framework for estimating the inland water surface area and gas transfer velocity and by the absence of a global CO2 database. Here we report regional variations in global inland water surface area, dissolved CO2 and gas transfer velocity. We obtain global CO2 evasion rates of 1.8petagrams of carbon (Pg C) per year from streams and rivers and 0.32Pg Cyr-1 from lakes and reservoirs, where the upper and lower limits are respectively the 5th and 95th confidence interval percentiles. The resulting global evasion rate of 2.1 Pg Cyr-1 is higher than previous estimates owing to a larger stream and river evasion rate. Our analysis predicts global hotspots in stream and river evasion, with about 70 per cent of the flux occurring over just 20 per cent of the land surface. The source of inland water CO2 is still not known with certainty and new studies are needed to research the mechanisms controlling CO2 evasion globally. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

'Re-using an existing wheel' developing data architecture for cooperating autonomous and semi-autonomous, agent-based web services

This short position paper considers issues in developing Data Architecture for the Internet of Things (IoT) through the medium of an exemplar project, Domain Expertise Capture in Authoring and Development ­Environments (DECADE). A brief discussion sets the background for IoT, and the development of the ­distinction between things and computers. The paper makes a strong argument to avoid reinvention of the wheel, and to reuse approaches to distributed heterogeneous data architectures and the lessons learned from that work, and apply them to this situation. DECADE requires an autonomous recording system, ­local data storage, semi-autonomous verification model, sign-off mechanism, qualitative and ­quantitative ­analysis ­carried out when and where required through web-service architecture, based on ontology and analytic agents, with a self-maintaining ontology model. To develop this, we describe a web-service ­architecture, ­combining a distributed data warehouse, web services for analysis agents, ontology agents and a ­verification engine, with a centrally verified outcome database maintained by certifying body for qualification/­professional status.

Low temperature crystal structures of two rhodanine derivatives, 3-amino rhodanine and 3-methyl rhodanine: geometry of the rhodanine ring

Rhodanines (2-thio-4-oxothiazolidines) are synthetic small molecular weight organic molecules with diverse applications in biochemistry, medicinal chemistry, photochemistry, coordination chemistry and industry. The X-ray crystal structure determination of two rhodanine derivatives, namely (I), 3-aminorhodanine [3-amino-2-thio-4-oxothiazolidine], C3H4N2OS2, and (II) 3-methylrhodanine [3-methyl-2-thio-4-oxothiazolidine], C4H5NOS2, have been conducted at 100 K. I crystallizes in the monoclinic space group P2(1)/n with unit cell parameters a = 9.662(2), b = 9.234(2), c = 13.384(2) angstrom, beta = 105.425(3)degrees, V = 1151.1(3) angstrom(3), Z = 8 (2 independent molecules per asymmetric unit), density (calculated) = 1.710 mg/m(3), absorption coefficient = 0.815 mm(-1). II crystallizes in the orthorhombic space group Iba2 with unit cell a = 20.117(4), b = 23.449(5), c = 7.852(2) angstrom, V = 3703.9(12) angstrom(3), Z = 24 (three independent molecules per asymmetric unit), density (calculated) = 1.584 mg/m(3), absorption coefficient 0.755 mm(-1). For I in the final refinement cycle the data/restraints/parameter ratios were 2639/0/161, goodness-of-fit on F-2 = 0.934, final R indices [I > 2sigma(I)] were R1 = 0.0299, wR2 = 0.0545 and R indices (all data) R1 = 0.0399, wR2 = 0.0568. The largest difference peak and hole were 0.402 and -0.259 e angstrom(-3). For II in the final refinement cycle the data/restraints/parameter ratios were 3372/1/221, goodness-of-fit on F(2) = 0.950, final R indices [I > 2sigma(I)] were R1 = 0.0407, wR2 = 0.1048 and R indices (all data) R1 = 0.0450, wR2 = 0.1088. The absolute structure parameter = 0.19(9) and largest difference peak and hole 0.934 and -0.301 e angstrom(-3). Details of the geometry of the five molecules (two for I and three for II) and the crystal structures are fully discussed. Corresponding features of the molecular geometry are highly consistent and firmly establish the geometry of the rhodanine

Central nervous system drugs: Low temperature X-ray structures of (I) the base 5-(2,3-dichlorophenyl)-2,4-diamino-6-fluoromethyl-pyrimidine (4030W92) and (II) 5-(2,6-dichlorophenyl)-1-H-2,4-diamino-6-methyl-pyrimidine methanesulphonic acid salt (227C89)

The X-ray crystal structures of (I), the base 4030W92, 5-(2,3-dichlorophenyl)-2,4-diamino-6-fluoromethyl-pyrimidine, C11H9Cl2FN4, and (II) 227C89, the methanesulphonic acid salt of 5-(2,6-dichlorophenyl)-1-H-2,4-diamino-6-methyl-pyrimidine, C11H11Cl2N4 center dot CH3O3S, have been carried out at low temperature. A detailed comparison of the two structures is given. Structure (I) is non-centrosymmetric, crystallizing in space group P2(1) with unit cell a = 10.821(3), b = 8.290(3), c = 13.819(4) angstrom, beta = 105.980(6)degrees, V = 1191.8(6) angstrom(3), Z = 4 (two molecules per asymmetric unit) and density (calculated) = 1.600 mg/m(3). Structure (II) crystallizes in the triclinic space group P (1) over bar with unit cell a = 7.686(2), b = 8.233(2), c = 12.234(2) angstrom, alpha = 78.379(4), beta = 87.195(4), gamma = 86.811(4)degrees, V = 756.6(2) angstrom(3), Z = 2, density (calculated) = 1.603 mg/m(3). Final R indices [I > 2sigma(I)] are R1 = 0.0572, wR2 = 0.1003 for (I) and R1 = 0.0558, wR2 = 0.0982 for (II). R indices (all data) are R1 = 0.0983, wR2 = 0.1116 for (I) and R1 = 0.1009, wR2 = 0.1117 for (II). 5- Phenyl-2,4 diaminopyrimidine and 6-phenyl-1,2,4 triazine derivatives, which include lamotrigine (3,5-diamino-6-(2,3-dichlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine), have been investigated for some time for their effects on the central nervous system. The three dimensional structures reported here form part of a newly developed data base for the detailed investigation of members of this structural series and their biological activities.

Low temperature crystal structure of N-Acetyl-L-Glutamic acid: comparison with the DFT calculated structure

N-acetyl-L-glutamic acid, crystallizes in the orthorhombic space group P2(1)2(1)2(1) with unit cell parameters a = 4.747(3), b = 12.852(7), c = 13.906(7) Å, V = 848.5(8) Å3, Z = 4, density (calculated) = 1.481 mg/m3, linear absorption coefficient 0.127 mm−1. The crystal structure determination was carried out with MoKalpha X-ray data measured with liquid nitrogen cooling at 100(2) K temperature. In the final refinement cycle the data/restraints/parameter ratios were 1,691/0/131; goodness-of-fit on F(2) = 1.122. Final R indices for [I > 2sigma(I)] were R1 = 0.0430, wR2 = 0.0878 and R indices (all data) R1 = 0.0473, wR2 = 0.0894. The largest electron density difference peak and hole were 0.207 and −0.154 eÅ(−3). Details of the molecular geometry are discussed and compared with a model DFT structure calculated using Gaussian 98.

Low temperature X-ray structures of two crystalline forms (I) and (II) of the pyrimidine derivative and sodium channel blocker BW1003C87: 5-(2,3,5-trichlorophenyl)-2,4-diaminopyrimidine

The X-ray crystal structures of two crystalline forms of 5-(2,3,5-trichlorophenyl)-2,4-diaminopyrimidine, C10H7Cl3N4 (code name BW1003C87) (I) and (II), have been carried out at liquid nitrogen temperature. A detailed comparison of the two structures is given. Both are centrosymmetric, with structure (I) in the triclinic space group P (1) over bar unit cell a = 6.4870(10), b = 9.216(2), c = 12.016(2) angstrom, alpha = 75.78(3)degrees, beta = 89.95(3)degrees, gamma = 83.45(3)degrees, V = 691.5(2) angstrom(3), Z = 2 and density (calculated) = 1.544 Mg/m(3); and (II) in the monoclinic space group P2(1)/c, unit cell a = 12.000(2), b = 7.518(2), c = 13.450(3) angstrom, beta = 97.87(3)degrees, V = 1202.0(5) angstrom(3), Z = 4, Density (calculated) = 1.600 Mg/m(3). Structure (I) includes a solvated CH3OH in the lattice. Final R indices [I > 2sigma(I)] are R1 = 0.0427, wR2 = 0.1075 for (I) and R1 = 0.0487, wR2 = 0.1222 for (II). R indices (all data) are R1 = 0.0470, wR2 = 0.1118 for (I) and R1 = 0.0623, wR2 = 0.1299 for (II). 5-Phenyl-2,4 diaminopyrimidine and 6-phenyl-1,2,4 triazine derivatives, which include lamotrigine (3,5-diamino-6-(2,3-dichlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine), have been investigated for some time for their effects on the central nervous system. Both lamotrigine and 5-(2,3,5-trichlorophenyl)-2,4-diaminopyrimidine (code name BW1003C87), the subject of the present study, are anticonvulsant as well as neuroprotective in models of brain ischaemia and in a model of white matter ischaemia. BW1003C87 is a sodium channel blocker which also reduces the release of the neurotransmitter glutamate. The three dimensional structures reported here form part of a newly developed data base for the detailed investigation of members of this drug family and their biological activities.

X-ray crystallographic structures of two lamotrigine analogues: (I) 3,5-diamino-6-(2-chlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine water solvate and (II) 3,5-diamino-6-(3,6-dichlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine methanol solvate

The X-ray crystal structures of two lamotrigine derivatives (I) 3,5-diamino-6-(2-chlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine, C9H8ClN5, (465BL) as a hydrate, and (II) 3,5-diamino-6-(3,6-dichlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine, C9H7Cl2N5, (469BR) as a methanol solvate, have been carried out at liquid nitrogen temperature and room temperature, respectively. A detailed comparison of the two structures is given. Both are centrosymmetric with (I) in the orthorhombic space group Pbca, a = 12.2507(3), b = 15.7160(6), c = 21.71496(9) angstrom, Z = 16, and (II) in the monoclinic space group C2/c, a = 38.553(3), b = 4.9586(2), c = 14.546(2) angstrom, beta = 111.59(1)degrees, Z = 8. Final R indices [I > 2sigma(I)] for (I) are R1 = 0.0670, wR2 = 0.1515 and for (II) R1 = 0.0434, wR2 = 0.1185. Structure (I) has water of crystallization in the lattice and (II) includes a solvated CH3OH. Structure (I) is characterized by having two crystallographically independent molecules, A and B, of 465BL, per asymmetric unit. Molecule B has a very unusual feature in that the 2-chlorophenyl ring is statistically disordered, occupying site (1) in 87.5% of the structure and site (2) in 12.5% of the structure. Sites (1) and (2) are related by an exact 180 degrees pivot of the phenyl ring about the ring linkage bond. The presence of two independent molecules per asymmetric unit provides an ideal opportunity for the conformational flexibility of the molecule 465BL to be studied. Structure (I) also includes a further unusual feature in that the lattice contains one fully occupied water molecule and an additional solvated water which is only 33% occupied.

Low temperature X-ray crystallographic structures of two lamotrigine analogues: (I) 2-methyl,3-amino, 5-imino-6-(2,3-dichlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine water solvate and (II) 2-methyl,3,5-diamino-6-(2,3-dichlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine isethionate, hemi-hydrate

The X-ray crystal structures of two lamotrigine derivatives (I) 2-methyl, 3-amino, 5-imino-6-(2, 3-dichlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine, C10H9Cl2N5, as the hemi hydrate and (II) 2-methyl,3,5-diamino-6-(2,3-dichlorophenyl)-1,2,4-triazine, C10H10Cl2N5, as the isethionate-water solvate, have been carried out at liquid nitrogen temperature. A detailed comparison of the two structures is given. Both are monoclinic and centrosymmetric, with (I) in space group C2/c, and (II) in space group P2(1)/n. For (I) the unit cell dimensions are a = 19.5466(10), b = 7.5483(4), c = 15.7861(8) angstrom, beta = 91.458(3)degrees, volume = 2328.4(2) angstrom(3), Z = 8, density = 1.590 Mg/m(3); for (II). For (II) the unit cell dimensions are a = 6.0566(2), b = 11.0084(4) c = 23.9973(9) angstrom, beta = 92.587(3)degrees, volume = 1598.35(10) angstrom(3), Z = 4, density = 1.597 Mg/m(3). For (I) final R indices [I > 2sigma(I)] are R1 = 0.0356, wR2 = 0.0782 and R indices (all data) are R1 = 0.0424, wR2 = 0.0817. For (II) final R indices [I > 2sigma(I)] are R1 = 0.0380, wR2 = 0.0871 and R indices (all data) R1 = 0.0558, wR2 = 0.0949. Both structures have a molecule of water of crystallization and (II) also includes a solvated CH3SO3. Comparisons are made between the two structures. Structure (I) is very unusual in having a = NH group at position C5' on the triazine ring. No other examples of this particular substitution, which is usually -NH2, have been reported.

X-ray crystallographic structures of neuroprotective pyrimidine derivatives: (I) the mesylate salt of BW1003C87 and (II) sipatrigine base

Drugs based on 5-phenyl-2,4 diamino pyrimidine and 6-phenyl-1,2,4 triazine derivatives are well known for their effects on the central nervous system. The study presented here provides detailed crystal structures of two pyrimidine derivatives which have neuroprotective properties in models of both grey and white matter ischemia. Recently published studies suggest that the compounds lamotrigine (a triazine derivative), and the two pyrimidines BW1003C87 (I) and sipatrigine (II) mediate their primary in vivo mode of action by inhibiting voltage-gated Na+ channels. The X-ray crystal structures will contribute valuable data for applications involving binding and modelling studies of the biological actions of these drugs.