Statistical characterisation of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc

We present the first multi-event study of the spatial and temporal structuring of the aurora to provide statistical evidence of the near-Earth plasma instability which causes the substorm onset arc. Using data from ground-based auroral imagers, we study repeatable signatures of along-arc auroral beads, which are thought to represent the ionospheric projection of magnetospheric instability in the near-Earth plasma sheet. We show that the growth and spatial scales of these wave-like fluctuations are similar across multiple events, indicating that each sudden auroral brightening has a common explanation. We find statistically that growth rates for auroral beads peak at low wavenumber with the most unstable spatial scales mapping to an azimuthal wavelength λ≈1700 − 2500 km in the equatorial magnetosphere at around 9-12 RE. We compare growth rates and spatial scales with a range of theoretical predictions of magnetotail instabilities, including the cross-field current instability and the shear-flow ballooning instability. We conclude that, although the cross-field current instability can generate similar magnitude of growth rates, the range of unstable wavenumbers indicates that the shear-flow ballooning instability is the most likely explanation for our observations.

Designing a sampling scheme to reveal correlations between weeds and soil properties at multiple spatial scales

Weeds tend to aggregate in patches within fields and there is evidence that this is partly owing to variation in soil properties. Because the processes driving soil heterogeneity operate at different scales, the strength of the relationships between soil properties and weed density would also be expected to be scale-dependent. Quantifying these effects of scale on weed patch dynamics is essential to guide the design of discrete sampling protocols for mapping weed distribution. We have developed a general method that uses novel within-field nested sampling and residual maximum likelihood (REML) estimation to explore scale-dependent relationships between weeds and soil properties. We have validated the method using a case study of Alopecurus myosuroides in winter wheat. Using REML, we partitioned the variance and covariance into scale-specific components and estimated the correlations between the weed counts and soil properties at each scale. We used variograms to quantify the spatial structure in the data and to map variables by kriging. Our methodology successfully captured the effect of scale on a number of edaphic drivers of weed patchiness. The overall Pearson correlations between A. myosuroides and soil organic matter and clay content were weak and masked the stronger correlations at >50 m. Knowing how the variance was partitioned across the spatial scales we optimized the sampling design to focus sampling effort at those scales that contributed most to the total variance. The methods have the potential to guide patch spraying of weeds by identifying areas of the field that are vulnerable to weed establishment.

Evaluation of sensor configurations for robotic surgical instruments

Designing surgical instruments for robotic-assisted minimally-invasive surgery (RAMIS) is challenging due to constraints on the number and type of sensors imposed by considerations such as space or the need for sterilization. A new method for evaluating the usability of virtual teleoperated surgical instruments based on virtual sensors is presented. This method uses virtual prototyping of the surgical instrument with a dual physical interaction, which allows testing of different sensor configurations in a real environment. Moreover, the proposed approach has been applied to the evaluation of prototypes of a two-finger grasper for lump detection by remote pinching. In this example, the usability of a set of five different sensor configurations, with a different number of force sensors, is evaluated in terms of quantitative and qualitative measures in clinical experiments with 23 volunteers. As a result, the smallest number of force sensors needed in the surgical instrument that ensures the usability of the device can be determined. The details of the experimental setup are also included.

The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

Diel surface temperature range scales with lake size

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored.

Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.

Reliability, validity and acceptability of modified response formats of APD instruments for children using AAC

A pilot study consisting of a parent questionnaire, four APD tests and an acceptability questionnaire were presented to normal hearing and cognitively developing children between the ages of 8-12 years. Responses to a standard and modified response format of the APD tests were obtained over two test sessions. Results indicated that the modified response formats of the four APD tests were acceptable, fairly reliable and three out of the four APD tests were valid.

Is bird incidence in Atlantic forest fragments influenced by landscape patterns at multiple scales?

The degree to which habitat fragmentation affects bird incidence is species specific and may depend on varying spatial scales. Selecting the correct scale of measurement is essential to appropriately assess the effects of habitat fragmentation on bird occurrence. Our objective was to determine which spatial scale of landscape measurement best describes the incidence of three bird species (Pyriglena leucoptera, Xiphorhynchus fuscus and Chiroxiphia caudata) in the fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest and test if multi-scalar models perform better than single-scalar ones. Bird incidence was assessed in 80 forest fragments. The surrounding landscape structure was described with four indices measured at four spatial scales (400-, 600-, 800- and 1,000-m buffers around the sample points). The explanatory power of each scale in predicting bird incidence was assessed using logistic regression, bootstrapped with 1,000 repetitions. The best results varied between species (1,000-m radius for P. leucoptera; 800-m for X. fuscus and 600-m for C. caudata), probably due to their distinct feeding habits and foraging strategies. Multi-scale models always resulted in better predictions than single-scale models, suggesting that different aspects of the landscape structure are related to different ecological processes influencing bird incidence. In particular, our results suggest that local extinction and (re)colonisation processes might simultaneously act at different scales. Thus, single-scale models may not be good enough to properly describe complex pattern-process relationships. Selecting variables at multiple ecologically relevant scales is a reasonable procedure to optimise the accuracy of species incidence models.

The signature of dark energy perturbations in galaxy cluster surveys

Models of dynamical dark energy unavoidably possess fluctuations in the energy density and pressure of that new component. In this paper we estimate the impact of dark energy fluctuations on the number of galaxy clusters in the Universe using a generalization of the spherical collapse model and the Press-Schechter formalism. The observations we consider are several hypothetical Sunyaev-Zel`dovich and weak lensing (shear maps) cluster surveys, with limiting masses similar to ongoing (SPT, DES) as well as future (LSST, Euclid) surveys. Our statistical analysis is performed in a 7-dimensional cosmological parameter space using the Fisher matrix method. We find that, in some scenarios, the impact of these fluctuations is large enough that their effect could already be detected by existing instruments such as the South Pole Telescope, when priors from other standard cosmological probes are included. We also show how dark energy fluctuations can be a nuisance for constraining cosmological parameters with cluster counts, and point to a degeneracy between the parameter that describes dark energy pressure on small scales (the effective sound speed) and the parameters describing its equation of state.

PAIN IN FIBROMYALGIA AND DISCRIMINATIVE POWER OF THE INSTRUMENTS: VISUAL ANALOG SCALE, DOLORIMETRY AND THE MCGILL PAIN QUESTIONNAIRE

Objective: The aim of this study was to verify the discriminative power of the most widely used pain assessment instruments. Methods: The sample consisted of 279 subjects divided into Fibromyalgia Group (FM- 205 patients with fibromyalgia) and Control Group (CG-74 healthy subjects), mean age 49.29 +/- 10.76 years. Only 9 subjects were male, 6 in FM and 3 in CG. FM were outpatients from the Rheumatology Clinic of the University of Sao Paulo - Hospital das Clinicas (HCFMUSP); the CG included people accompanying patients and hospital staff with similar socio-demographic characteristics. Three instruments were used to assess pain: the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ), the Visual Analog Scale (VAS), and the Dolorimetry, to measure pain threshold on tender points (generating the TP index). In order to assess the discriminative power of the instruments, the measurements obtained were submitted to descriptive analysis and inferential analysis using ROC Curve - sensibility (S), specificity (S I) and area under the curve (AUC) - and Contingence tables with Chi-square Test and odds ratio. Significance level was 0.05. Results: Higher sensibility, specificity and area under the curve was obtained by VAS (80%, 80% and 0.864, respectively), followed by Dolorimetry (S 77%, S177% and AUC 0.851), McGill Sensory (S 72%, S167% and AUC 0.765) and McGill Affective (S 69%, S1 67% and AUC 0.753). Conclusions: VAS presented the higher sensibility, specificity and AUC, showing the greatest discriminative power among the instruments. However, these values are considerably similar to those of Dolorimetry.

Center for the Study of Free Reed Instruments Collection, 1947-2011 Finding Aid

The Center for the Study of Free-Reed Instruments Collection is an archival collection at the City University of New York Graduate Center’s Mina Rees Library which contains materials donated by Professor Allan W. Atlas, related to free-reed instruments and the International Concertina Association.

Emergency department triage scales and their components : a systematic review of the scientific evidence

Emergency department (ED) triage is used to identify patients' level of urgency and treat them based on their triage level. The global advancement of triage scales in the past two decades has generated considerable research on the validity and reliability of these scales. This systematic review aims to investigate the scientific evidence for published ED triage scales. The following questions are addressed: 1. Does assessment of individual vital signs or chief complaints affect mortality during the hospital stay or within 30 days after arrival at the ED? 2. What is the level of agreement between clinicians' triage decisions compared to each other or to a gold standard for each scale (reliability)? 3. How valid is each triage scale in predicting hospitalization and hospital mortality? A systematic search of the international literature published from 1966 through March 31, 2009 explored the British Nursing Index, Business Source Premier, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and PubMed. Inclusion was limited to controlled studies of adult patients (≥15 years) visiting EDs for somatic reasons. Outcome variables were death in ED or hospital and need for hospitalization (validity). Methodological quality and clinical relevance of each study were rated as high, medium, or low. The results from the studies that met the inclusion criteria and quality standards were synthesized applying the internationally developed GRADE system. Each conclusion was then assessed as having strong, moderately strong, limited, or insufficient scientific evidence. If studies were not available, this was also noted. We found ED triage scales to be supported, at best, by limited and often insufficient evidence. The ability of the individual vital signs included in the different scales to predict outcome is seldom, if at all, studied in the ED setting. The scientific evidence to assess interrater agreement (reliability) was limited for one triage scale and insufficient or lacking for all other scales. Two of the scales yielded limited scientific evidence, and one scale yielded insufficient evidence, on which to assess the risk of early death or hospitalization in patients assigned to the two lowest triage levels on a 5-level scale (validity).

Policy instruments to improve energy efficiency in buildings

The newly adopted energy efficiency directive (2012/27/EU) highlights the importance of energy efficiency in reaching the Union’s 2020 targets. The directive commits member states to defining national energy efficiency targets (art. 3), achieving yearly energy savings of 1.5% of the annual energy sales through the energy efficiency obligation scheme (art. 7), and providing a long-term strategy for the building sector that aims at a 3% refurbishment rate for public buildings (art. 4+5). Buildings currently account for 40% of energy use in most countries, putting them among the largest end-use sectors. This report takes a closer look at the best practices for implementing increasing energy efficiency in different regions and countries in Europe. The final aim is to identify some policy tools to be suggested to the region of Dalarna (Dalarna having been chosen as the pilot county in Sweden) as a means of implementing energy efficiency in the building sector. The final objective is to give analysts and decision-makers a better analytical foundation to explore future policy development in the area of buildings to be proposed and tested at the regional level in Dalarna and later at the national level in Sweden.

Justiça distributiva: variáveis de personalidade e variáveis situacionais

A presente pesquisa tem por objetivo investigar o comportamento social de justiça e sua relação com variáveis de personalidade e variáveis situacionais. De modo específico, pretende-se verificar a influência relativa de um ou outro tipo de variável na preferência por determinadas normas de justiça distributiva em situação de alocação de recompensas. Os fatores de personalidade selecionados para estudo são racionalidade/emocionalidade, necessidade de realização e necessidade de afiliação. Por outro lado, as variáveis situacionais referem-se aos tipos de relações interpessoais envolvidas no funcionamento dos grupos, tais como preconizadas por Deutsch. Os resultados obtidos comprovam empiricamente as hipóteses de Deutsch, segundo as quais a natureza das relações sociais e dos objetivos principais que movem os grupos determinam a escolha da base de justiça que regula a repartição de bens e condições sociais entre seus membros. A relação entre as variáveis de personalidade e o comportamento de alocação de recursos não foi confirmada empiricamente. Apenas alguns indícios foram encontrados na direção·esperada, especialmente quanto a uma eventual associação entre necessidade de afiliação e a escolha de certos princípios distributivos. No entanto, face às limitações impostas por restrições psicométricas nos instrumentos de medida, esses resultados devem ser encarados com reservas. Estudos empíricos adicionais sao sugeridos para o aprimoramento das escalas de aferição das variáveis psicológicas a fim de que seja possível extrair conclusões mais consistentes.