Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

The Borg Scale as an Important Tool of Self-Monitoring and Self-Regulation of Exercise Prescription in Heart Failure Patients During Hydrotherapy - A Randomized Blinded Controlled Trial

Background: The Borg Scale may be a useful tool for heart failure patients to self-monitor and self-regulate exercise on land or in water (hydrotherapy) by maintaining the heart rate (HR) between the anaerobic threshold and respiratory compensation point. Methods and Results: Patients performed a cardiopulmonary exercise test to determine their anaerobic threshold/respiratory compensation points. The percentage of the mean HR during the exercise session in relation to the anaerobic threshold HR (%EHR-AT), in relation to the respiratory compensation point (%EHR-RCP), in relation to the peak HR by the exercise test (%EHR-Peak) and in relation to the maximum predicted HR (%EHR-Predicted) was calculated. Next, patients were randomized into the land or water exercise group. One blinded investigator instructed the patients in each group to exercise at a level between ""relatively easy and slightly tiring"". The mean HR throughout the 30-min exercise session was recorded. The %EHR-AT and %EHR-Predicted did not differ between the land and water exercisegroups, but they differed in the %EHR-RCP (95 +/- 7 to 86 +/- 7. P<0.001) and in the %EHR-Peak (85 +/- 8 to 78 +/- 9, P=0.007). Conclusions: Exercise guided by the Borg scale maintains the patient's HR between the anaerobic threshold and respiratory compensation point (ie, in the exercise training zone). (Circ J 2009; 73: 1871-1876)

Psychometric properties of the Child Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) applied to children and adolescents with cerebral palsy

Background: Cerebral palsy (CP) patients have motor limitations that can affect functionality and abilities for activities of daily living (ADL). Health related quality of life and health status instruments validated to be applied to these patients do not directly approach the concepts of functionality or ADL. The Child Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) seems to be a good instrument to approach this dimension, but it was never used for CP patients. The purpose of the study was to verify the psychometric properties of CHAQ applied to children and adolescents with CP. Methods: Parents or guardians of children and adolescents with CP, aged 5 to 18 years, answered the CHAQ. A healthy group of 314 children and adolescents was recruited during the validation of the CHAQ Brazilian-version. Data quality, reliability and validity were studied. The motor function was evaluated by the Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM). Results: Ninety-six parents/guardians answered the questionnaire. The age of the patients ranged from 5 to 17.9 years (average: 9.3). The rate of missing data was low(< 9.3%). The floor effect was observed in two domains, being higher only in the visual analogue scales (<= 35.5%). The ceiling effect was significant in all domains and particularly high in patients with quadriplegia (81.8 to 90.9%) and extrapyramidal (45.4 to 91.0%). The Cronbach alpha coefficient ranged from 0.85 to 0.95. The validity was appropriate: for the discriminant validity the correlation of the disability index with the visual analogue scales was not significant; for the convergent validity CHAQ disability index had a strong correlation with the GMFM (0.77); for the divergent validity there was no correlation between GMFM and the pain and overall evaluation scales; for the criterion validity GMFM as well as CHAQ detected differences in the scores among the clinical type of CP (p < 0.01); for the construct validity, the patients' disability index score (mean: 2.16; SD: 0.72) was higher than the healthy group ( mean: 0.12; SD: 0.23)(p < 0.01). Conclusion: CHAQ reliability and validity were adequate to this population. However, further studies are necessary to verify the influence of the ceiling effect on the responsiveness of the instrument.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 1: Model description and evaluation

We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

The viscosity parameter's dependence on the profile of the disk scale height

It is shown that, for accretion disks, the height scale is a constant whenever hydrostatic equilibrium and the subsonic turbulence regime hold in the disk. In order to have a variable height scale, processes are needed that contribute an extra term to the continuity equation. This contribution makes the viscosity parameter much greater in the outer region and much smaller in the inner region. Under these circumstances, turbulence is the presumable source of viscosity in the disk.

The chemical evolution of IC 10

Context. Dwarf irregular galaxies are relatively simple unevolved objects where it is easy to test models of galactic chemical evolution. Aims. We attempt to determine the star formation and gas accretion history of IC 10, a local dwarf irregular for which abundance, gas, and mass determinations are available. Methods. We apply detailed chemical evolution models to predict the evolution of several chemical elements (He, O, N, S) and compared our predictions with the observational data. We consider additional constraints such as the present-time gas fraction, the star formation rate (SFR), and the total estimated mass of IC 10. We assume a dark matter halo for this galaxy and study the development of a galactic wind. We consider different star formation regimes: bursting and continuous. We explore different wind situations: i) normal wind, where all the gas is lost at the same rate and ii) metal-enhanced wind, where metals produced by supernovae are preferentially lost. We study a case without wind. We vary the star formation efficiency (SFE), the wind efficiency, and the time scale of the gas infall, which are the most important parameters in our models. Results. We find that only models with metal-enhanced galactic winds can reproduce the properties of IC 10. The star formation must have proceeded in bursts rather than continuously and the bursts must have been less numerous than similar to 10 over the whole galactic lifetime. Finally, IC 10 must have formed by a slow process of gas accretion with a timescale of the order of 8 Gyr.

Constraints on cold dark matter accelerating cosmologies and cluster formation

We discuss the properties of homogeneous and isotropic flat cosmologies in which the present accelerating stage is powered only by the gravitationally induced creation of cold dark matter (CCDM) particles (Omega(m) = 1). For some matter creation rates proposed in the literature, we show that the main cosmological functions such as the scale factor of the universe, the Hubble expansion rate, the growth factor, and the cluster formation rate are analytically defined. The best CCDM scenario has only one free parameter and our joint analysis involving baryonic acoustic oscillations + cosmic microwave background (CMB) + SNe Ia data yields (Omega) over tilde = 0.28 +/- 0.01 (1 sigma), where (Omega) over tilde (m) is the observed matter density parameter. In particular, this implies that the model has no dark energy but the part of the matter that is effectively clustering is in good agreement with the latest determinations from the large- scale structure. The growth of perturbation and the formation of galaxy clusters in such scenarios are also investigated. Despite the fact that both scenarios may share the same Hubble expansion, we find that matter creation cosmologies predict stronger small scale dynamics which implies a faster growth rate of perturbations with respect to the usual Lambda CDM cosmology. Such results point to the possibility of a crucial observational test confronting CCDM with Lambda CDM scenarios through a more detailed analysis involving CMB, weak lensing, as well as the large-scale structure.

Age distribution of the central stars of galactic disk planetary nebulae

Context. Determination of the ages of central stars of planetary nebulae (CSPN) is a complex problem, and there is presently no single method that can be generally applied. We have developed several methods of estimating the ages of CSPN, based on both the observed nebular properties and some properties of the stars themselves. Aims. Our aim is to estimate the ages and the age distribution of CSPN and to compare the derived results with mass and age determinations of CSPN and white dwarfs based on empirical determinations of these quantities. Methods. We considered a sample of planetary nebulae in the galactic disk, most of which (similar to 69%) are located in the solar neighbourhood, within 3 kpc from the Sun. We discuss several methods of deriving the age distribution of CSPN, namely; (i) the use of an age-metallicity relation that also depends on the galactocentric distance; (ii) the use of an age-metallicity relation obtained for the galactic disk; and (iii) the determination of ages from the central star masses obtained from the observed nitrogen abundances. Results. We estimated the age distribution of CSPN with average uncertainties of 1-2 Gyr, and compared our results with the expected distribution based both on the observed mass distribution of white dwarfs and on the age distribution derived from available mass distributions of CSPN. Based on our derived age distributions, we conclude that most CSPN in the galactic disk have ages under 6 Gyr, and that the age distribution is peaked around 2-4 Gyr.

A FIRST CONSTRAINT ON THE THICK DISK SCALE LENGTH: DIFFERENTIAL RADIAL ABUNDANCES IN K GIANTS AT GALACTOCENTRIC RADII 4, 8, AND 12 kpc

Based on high-resolution spectra obtained with the MIKE spectrograph on the Magellan telescopes, we present detailed elemental abundances for 20 red giant stars in the outer Galactic disk, located at Galactocentric distances between 9 and 13 kpc. The outer disk sample is complemented with samples of red giants from the inner Galactic disk and the solar neighborhood, analyzed using identical methods. For Galactocentric distances beyond 10 kpc, we only find chemical patterns associated with the local thin disk, even for stars far above the Galactic plane. Our results show that the relative densities of the thick and thin disks are dramatically different from the solar neighborhood, and we therefore suggest that the radial scale length of the thick disk is much shorter than that of the thin disk. We make a first estimate of the thick disk scale length of L(thick) = 2.0 kpc, assuming L(thin) = 3.8 kpc for the thin disk. We suggest that radial migration may explain the lack of radial age, metallicity, and abundance gradients in the thick disk, possibly also explaining the link between the thick disk and the metal-poor bulge.

Galaxy distribution and evolution around a sample of 2dF groups

Context. We study galaxy evolution and spatial patterns in the surroundings of a sample of 2dF groups. Aims. Our aim is to find evidence of galaxy evolution and clustering out to 10 times the virial radius of the groups and so redefine their properties according to the spatial patterns in the fields and relate them to galaxy evolution. Methods. Group members and interlopers were redefined after the identification of gaps in the redshift distribution. We then used exploratory spatial statistics based on the the second moment of the Ripley function to probe the anisotropy in the galaxy distribution around the groups. Results. We found an important anticorrelation between anisotropy around groups and the fraction of early-type galaxies in these fields. Our results illustrate how the dynamical state of galaxy groups can be ascertained by the systematic study of their neighborhoods. This is an important achievement, since the correct estimate of the extent to which galaxies are affected by the group environment and follow large-scale filamentary structure is relevant to understanding the process of galaxy clustering and evolution in the Universe.

Beyond the Fragmentation Threshold Hypothesis: Regime Shifts in Biodiversity Across Fragmented Landscapes

Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andren proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions - that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool for analysing the potential effectiveness of management interventions.

The Spleen CD4(+) T Cell Response to Blood-Stage Plasmodium chabaudi Malaria Develops in Two Phases Characterized by Different Properties

The pivotal role of spleen CD4(+) T cells in the development of both malaria pathogenesis and protective immunity makes necessary a profound comprehension of the mechanisms involved in their activation and regulation during Plasmodium infection. Herein, we examined in detail the behaviour of non-conventional and conventional splenic CD4(+) T cells during P. chabaudi malaria. We took advantage of the fact that a great proportion of CD4(+) T cells generated in CD1d(-/-) mice are I-A(b)-restricted (conventional cells), while their counterparts in I-Ab(-/-) mice are restricted by CD1d and other class IB major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules (non-conventional cells). We found that conventional CD4(+) T cells are the main protagonists of the immune response to infection, which develops in two consecutive phases concomitant with acute and chronic parasitaemias. The early phase of the conventional CD4(+) T cell response is intense and short lasting, rapidly providing large amounts of proinflammatory cytokines and helping follicular and marginal zone B cells to secrete polyclonal immunoglobulin. Both TNF-alpha and IFN-gamma production depend mostly on conventional CD4(+) T cells. IFN-gamma is produced simultaneously by non-conventional and conventional CD4(+) T cells. The early phase of the response finishes after a week of infection, with the elimination of a large proportion of CD4(+) T cells, which then gives opportunity to the development of acquired immunity. Unexpectedly, the major contribution of CD1d-restricted CD4(+) T cells occurs at the beginning of the second phase of the response, but not earlier, helping both IFN-gamma and parasite-specific antibody production. We concluded that conventional CD4(+) T cells have a central role from the onset of P. chabaudi malaria, acting in parallel with non-conventional CD4(+) T cells as a link between innate and acquired immunity. This study contributes to the understanding of malaria immunology and opens a perspective for future studies designed to decipher the molecular mechanisms behind immune responses to Plasmodium infection.

SOME PROPERTIES OF THE MULTIPLICITY SEQUENCE FOR ARBITRARY IDEALS

In this work we prove that the Achilles-Manaresi multiplicity sequence, like the classical Hilbert-Samuel multiplicity, is additive with respect to the exact sequence of modules. We also prove the associativity formula for his mulitplicity sequence. As a consequence, we give new proofs for two results already known. First, the Achilles-Manaresi multiplicity sequence is an invariant up to reduction, a result first proved by Ciuperca. Second, I subset of J is a reduction of (J,M) if and only if c(0)(I(p), M(p)) = c(0)(J(p), M(p)) for all p is an element of Spec(A), a result first proved by Flenner and Manaresi.

An overview of the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment 2008 (AMAZE-08)

The Amazon Basin provides an excellent environment for studying the sources, transformations, and properties of natural aerosol particles and the resulting links between biological processes and climate. With this framework in mind, the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment (AMAZE-08), carried out from 7 February to 14 March 2008 during the wet season in the central Amazon Basin, sought to understand the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of fine-and coarse-mode biogenic aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate. Special foci included (1) the production mechanisms of secondary organic components at a pristine continental site, including the factors regulating their temporal variability, and (2) predicting and understanding the cloud-forming properties of biogenic particles at such a site. In this overview paper, the field site and the instrumentation employed during the campaign are introduced. Observations and findings are reported, including the large-scale context for the campaign, especially as provided by satellite observations. New findings presented include: (i) a particle number-diameter distribution from 10 nm to 10 mu m that is representative of the pristine tropical rain forest and recommended for model use; (ii) the absence of substantial quantities of primary biological particles in the submicron mode as evidenced by mass spectral characterization; (iii) the large-scale production of secondary organic material; (iv) insights into the chemical and physical properties of the particles as revealed by thermodenuder-induced changes in the particle number-diameter distributions and mass spectra; and (v) comparisons of ground-based predictions and satellite-based observations of hydrometeor phase in clouds. A main finding of AMAZE-08 is the dominance of secondary organic material as particle components. The results presented here provide mechanistic insight and quantitative parameters that can serve to increase the accuracy of models of the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of biogenic natural aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate.

A comparison of dry and wet season aerosol number fluxes over the Amazon rain forest

Vertical number fluxes of aerosol particles and vertical fluxes of CO(2) were measured with the eddy covariance method at the top of a 53 m high tower in the Amazon rain forest as part of the LBA (The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) experiment. The observed aerosol number fluxes included particles with sizes down to 10 nm in diameter. The measurements were carried out during the wet and dry season in 2008. In this study focus is on the dry season aerosol fluxes, with significant influence from biomass burning, and these are compared with aerosol fluxes measured during the wet season. Net particle deposition fluxes dominated in daytime in both seasons and the deposition flux was considerably larger in the dry season due to the much higher dry season particle concentration. The particle transfer velocity increased linearly with increasing friction velocity in both seasons. The difference in transfer velocity between the two seasons was small, indicating that the seasonal change in aerosol number size distribution is not enough for causing any significant change in deposition velocity. In general, particle transfer velocities in this study are low compared to studies over boreal forests. The reasons are probably the high percentage of accumulation mode particles and the low percentage of nucleation mode particles in the Amazon boundary layer, both in the dry and wet season, and low wind speeds in the tropics compared to the midlatitudes. In the dry season, nocturnal particle fluxes behaved very similar to the nocturnal CO(2) fluxes. Throughout the night, the measured particle flux at the top of the tower was close to zero, but early in the morning there was an upward particle flux peak that is not likely a result of entrainment or local pollution. It is possible that these morning upward particle fluxes are associated with emission of primary biogenic particles from the rain forest. Emitted particles may be stored within the canopy during stable conditions at nighttime, similarly to CO(2), and being released from the canopy when conditions become more turbulent in the morning.