Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Red blood cell structure and dynamics explored with digital holographic microspcopy

Digital holographic microscopy (DHM) is a technique that allows obtaining, from a single recorded hologram, quantitative phase image of living cell with interferometric accuracy. Specifically the optical phase shift induced by the specimen on the transmitted wave front can be regarded as a powerful endogenous contrast agent, depending on both the thickness and the refractive index of the sample. Thanks to a decoupling procedure cell thickness and intracellular refractive index can be measured separately. Consequently, Mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), two highly relevant clinical parameters, have been measured non-invasively at a single cell level. The DHM nanometric axial and microsecond temporal sensitivities have permitted to measure the red blood cell membrane fluctuations (CMF) on the whole cell surface. ©2009 COPYRIGHT SPIE--The International Society for Optical Engineering.

Population dynamics of intermediate snail hosts of Fasciola hepatica and some environmental factors in San Juan y Martinez municipality, Cuba

The variation of abundances of intermediate snail hosts of Fasciola hepatica in Cuba (Fossaria cubensis and Pseudosuccinea columella) was studied during one year under natural conditions at five sampling sites in San Juan y Martinez municipality, Pinar del Rio province, Cuba. The effect of some environmental variables on the lymnaeid abundances was also studied. A canonical correspondence analysis showed that both species do not generally occur together in the same habitat and that most factors affect them in an opposite fashion, although both of them correlate positively through time to the diversity of the habitats. F. cubensis prefers the sites that are in or closer to the city whereas P. columella is more abundant in rural sites. Lymnaeid abundances are mainly affected by nitrite and nitrate concentrations as well as by the abundance of the thiarid Tarebia granifera. F. cubensis is more abundant in polluted habitats with low densities (or absence) of T. granifera whereas P. columella prefers cleaner habitats and can coexist with the thiarid, even at its higher densities. The implications of divergent preferences of the two lymnaeids for the control of fasciolosis are discussed.

How local excitation-inhibition ratio impacts the whole brain dynamics.

The spontaneous activity of the brain shows different features at different scales. On one hand, neuroimaging studies show that long-range correlations are highly structured in spatiotemporal patterns, known as resting-state networks, on the other hand, neurophysiological reports show that short-range correlations between neighboring neurons are low, despite a large amount of shared presynaptic inputs. Different dynamical mechanisms of local decorrelation have been proposed, among which is feedback inhibition. Here, we investigated the effect of locally regulating the feedback inhibition on the global dynamics of a large-scale brain model, in which the long-range connections are given by diffusion imaging data of human subjects. We used simulations and analytical methods to show that locally constraining the feedback inhibition to compensate for the excess of long-range excitatory connectivity, to preserve the asynchronous state, crucially changes the characteristics of the emergent resting and evoked activity. First, it significantly improves the model's prediction of the empirical human functional connectivity. Second, relaxing this constraint leads to an unrealistic network evoked activity, with systematic coactivation of cortical areas which are components of the default-mode network, whereas regulation of feedback inhibition prevents this. Finally, information theoretic analysis shows that regulation of the local feedback inhibition increases both the entropy and the Fisher information of the network evoked responses. Hence, it enhances the information capacity and the discrimination accuracy of the global network. In conclusion, the local excitation-inhibition ratio impacts the structure of the spontaneous activity and the information transmission at the large-scale brain level.

Dynamics of feeding and defecation in Triatoma vitticeps (Stal, 1859) (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae) and its potential in the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi

Adults of Triatoma vitticeps infected by flagellates similar to Trypanosoma cruzi are frequently captured by the inhabitants of rural areas in the Brazilian state of Espírito Santo. The dynamics of feeding and defecation were observed in three groups of adult triatomines, consisting of sylvatic T. vitticeps and laboratory-reared specimens of this species and T. infestans. Triatomines were observed from the moment they were presented with an immobilized chicken as a bloodmeal source until 240 min after feeding had ended. Mean times between the end of feeding and defecation for T. infestans, wild T. vitticeps and laboratory-reared specimens of the latter species were 1.2, 21.1, and 64 min respectively. All T. infestans defecated within 10 min of feeding, while only 29.9 of wild and 52.8% laboratory-reared specimens of T. vitticeps did so within this period. These results may explain the low efficiency of T. vitticeps in T. cruzi transmission to man. The shorter time between feeding and defecation in laboratory-reared T. vitticeps may indicate a change in behaviour of this species as a result of adaptation to an artificial environment.

Biomphalaria tenagophila: dynamics of populations of resistant and susceptible strains to Schistosoma mansoni, with or without pressure of the parasite

Resistant (Taim, RS) and susceptible albino (Joinville, SC) Biomphalaria tenagophila populations were kept together, at different proportions, throughout a 18-month-period. Some of the snail groups were submitted to Schistosoma mansoni infection. The targets of this study were (a) to analyze the populational dynamics among resistant and susceptible individuals to S. mansoni; (b) to study the resistance phenotype in descendants of cross-breeding; (c) to observe whether the parasite could exert any kind of selection in those snail populations. Throughout the experiment it could be observed that the susceptible B. tenagophila strain (Joinville) underwent a selective pressure of the parasite that was negative, since the individuals showed a high mortality rate. Although B. tenagophila (Taim) population presented a higher mortality rate without pressure of the parasite, this event was compensated by a reproductive capacity. B. tenagophila Taim was more fecund than B. tenagophila Joinville and was able to transmit the resistance character to their descendants. F1 generation obtained by cross-breeding between resistant and susceptible lineages was completely resistant to S. mansoni infection, irrespective of the Taim proportion. Moreover, less than 5% of F2 progeny were susceptible to S. mansoni infection.

The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil

By 2002, dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-2 had circulated for more than a decade in Brazil. In 2002, the introduction of DENV-3 in the state of Bahia produced a massive epidemic and the first cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Based on the standardized frequency, timing and location of viral isolations by the state's Central Laboratory, DENV-3 probably entered Bahia through its capital, Salvador, and then rapidly disseminated to other cities, following the main roads. A linear regression model that included traffic flow, distance from the capital and DENV-1 circulation (r² = 0.24, p = 0.001) supported this hypothesis. This pattern was not seen for serotypes already in circulation and was not seen for DENV-3 in the following year. Human population density was another important factor in the intensity of viral circulation. Neither DENV-1 nor DENV-2 fit this model for 2001 or 2003. Since the vector has limited flight range and vector densities fail to correlate with intensity of viral circulation, this distribution represents the movement of infected people and to some extent mosquitoes. This pattern may mimic person-to-person spread of a new infection.

Diverse population dynamics of three Anopheles species belonging to the Triannulatus Complex (Diptera: Culicidae)

The Triannulatus Complex of Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) consists of at least three sibling species, namely Anopheles triannulatus s.s., Anopheles halophylus and a third undescribed member herein referred to as An. triannulatus "C". Sympatric anophelines belonging to species complexes, even though closely related, may exploit different environments such as larval habitats. In this paper we hypothesize that rainfall and seasonal flooding would distinctly influence the availability of larval habitats and consequently the seasonal population dynamics of sympatric members of the Triannulatus Complex. A reflection of this is distinct seasonal biting frequencies exhibited by three members of the Triannulatus Complex at a site in Central Brazil. Population dynamics seem to be influenced by the water level in the local rivers, although biting frequency of all three species was negatively influenced by rainfall. An. triannulatus s.s. was more abundant following the end of the rainy season, but notably 30 to 60 days after flooding. On the other hand, An. halophylus and An. triannulatus C peaked during the middle of the dry season, when water impoundments have no inflow, are somewhat reduced in size and the water becomes brackish. Differences in population dynamics were greater between An. triannulatus s.s. and An. halophylus and An. triannulatus C than between An. halophylus and An. triannulatus C. This might reflect differences in larval habitat exploitation and therefore spatial segregation among these members of the complex.

Population dynamics of Triatoma vitticeps (Stål, 1859) in Itanhomi, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Taxonomic markers (head structure morphometry, isoenzymes and randon amplified polymorphism of DNA - RAPD) were used to understand the population dynamics of Triatoma vitticeps, predominant triatomine species in Itanhomi district, using samples obtained from domestic, peridomiciliary and sylvatic habitats. Morphometric analysis revealed sexual dimorphism within the three samples although specimens could not be separated according to the habitat in which they were captured. Forty-two bands were analyzed from RAPD profiles generated using four primers. A dendrogram constructed from Dice's similarity coefficient values showed that migration of the insects between the habitats has occurred, without structuring of populations. Moreover, the dendrogram obtained from the genetic distance values showed an important gene flow between the sylvatic and domestic habitats. No polymorphism was found in the electrophoretic mobility of proteins for the ten enzymes studied. Our results revealed movement of triatomines between the three habitats, suggesting that the presence of T. vitticeps in houses should not be ignored. As invasion of houses by sylvatic insects is frequent and the natural infection indices of this species are among the highest known, epidemiological vigilance studies may reveal possible changes in T. vitticeps behaviour which could present future risks to public health.

"Accomodating science" : a new way of thinking about rhetorical dynamics

By analyzing three case studies (neutrinos, victimization survey and quality of mass media), our present issue is to figure out if underlying successive accommodations to new rhetorical situations will have an impact on the respective importance of logos, ethos and pathos. We would like to pinpoint the stakes of science's public dimensions considering the scientists' image, their expertise, and also the given results' implication. We will especially take into account scientific papers that may be or are potentially controversial in the political, media and civic spheres.

Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil

We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (») and the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that » and R0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.

HIV-1 reverse transcriptase connection domain mutations: dynamics of emergence and implications for success of combination antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Factors promoting the emergence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) reverse transcriptase (RT) connection domain mutations and their effect on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are still largely undetermined. We investigated this matter by analyzing genotypic resistance tests covering 400 amino acid positions in the RT of HIV-1 subtype B viruses and corresponding treatment histories and laboratory measurements. METHODS: The emergence of connection domain mutations was studied in 334 patients receiving monotherapy or dual therapy with thymidine analogues at the time of the genotypic resistance test. Response to subsequent combination ART (cART) was analyzed using Cox regression for 291 patients receiving unboosted protease inhibitors. Response was defined by ever reaching an HIV RNA level <50 copies/mL during the first cART. RESULTS: The connection domain mutations N348I, R356K, R358K, A360V, and A371V were more frequently observed in ART-exposed than ART-naive patients, of which only N348I and A360V were nonpolymorphic (with a prevalence of <1.5% in untreated patients). N348I correlated with M184V and predominantly occurred in patients receiving lamivudine and zidovudine concomitantly. A360V was not associated with specific drug combinations and was found to emerge later than M184V or thymidine analogue mutations. Nonpolymorphic connection domain mutations were rarely detected in the absence of established drug resistance mutations in ART-exposed individuals (prevalence, <1%). None of the 5 connection domain mutations associated with treatment showed a statistically significant effect on response to cART. CONCLUSIONS: Despite their frequent emergence, connection domain mutations did not show large detrimental effects on response to cART. Currently, routine implementation of connection domain sequencing seems unnecessary for developed health care settings.

Seasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in the northernmost state of Brazil: a likely port-of-entry for dengue virus 4

Roraima is the northernmost state of Brazil, bordering both Venezuela and Guyana. Appropriate climate and vector conditions for dengue transmission together with its proximity to countries where all four dengue serotypes circulate make this state, particularly the capital Boa Vista, strategically important for dengue surveillance in Brazil. Nonetheless, few studies have addressed the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Boa Vista. In this study, we report temporal and spatial variations in Ae. aegypti population density using ovitraps in two highly populated neighbourhoods; Centro and Tancredo Neves. In three out of six surveys, Ae. aegypti was present in more than 80% of the sites visited. High presence levels of this mosquito suggest ubiquitous human exposure to the vector, at least during part of the year. The highest infestation rates occurred during the peak of the rainy seasons, but a large presence was also observed during the early dry season (although with more variation among years). Spatial distribution of positive houses changed from a sparse and local pattern to a very dense pattern during the dry-wet season transition. These results suggest that the risk of dengue transmission and the potential for the new serotype invasions are high for most of the year.