942 resultados para SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING


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A Lontra Euroasiática foi alvo de quatro prospeções na Península Ibérica (1990-2008). Em 2003, foi publicado um modelo de distribuição da lontra, com base nos dados de presença/ausência das prospeções publicadas em 1998. Dadas as suas características, este tipo de modelos pode tornar-se um elemento chave nas estratégias de recuperação da lontra como também, de outras espécies, se comprovada a sua fiabilidade e capacidade de antecipar tendências na distribuição das mesmas. Assim, esta dissertação confrontou as previsões do modelo com os dados de distribuição de 2008, a fim de identificar potências áreas de discordância. Os resultados revelam que, o modelo de distribuição de lontra proposto, apesar de ter por base dados de 1998 e de não considerar explicitamente processos biológicos, conseguiu captar o essencial da relação espécie-ambiente, resultando num bom desempenho preditivo para a distribuição da mesma em Espanha, uma década depois da sua construção; Evolution of otter (Lutra lutra L.) distribution in the Iberian Peninsula: Models at different scales and their projection through space and time Abstract: The Eurasian otter was already surveyed four times in the Iberian Peninsula (1990-2008). In 2003, a distribution model for the otter based on presence/absence data from the survey published in 1998, was published. This type of models has advantages that can make it in a key element for otter conservation strategies and also, for other species, but only, if their reliability and capability to predict species distribution tendencies are validated. The present thesis compares the model predictions with 2008 data, in order to find potential mismatch areas. Results suggest that, although the distribution model for the otter was based on data from 1998 and, doesn’t include explicitly biological mechanisms, it managed to correctly identify the essence of the species-environment relationship, what was translated in a good predictive performance for its actual distribution in Spain, after a decade of its construction.

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This study aimed to estimate the frequency, associated factors, and molecular characterisation of Entamoeba histolytica , Entamoeba dispar, Entamoeba moshkovskii , and Entamoeba hartmanni infections. We performed a survey (n = 213 subjects) to obtain parasitological, sanitation, and sociodemographic data. Faecal samples were processed through flotation and centrifugation methods. E. histolytica, E. dispar, E. moshkovskii, and E. hartmanni were identified by nested-polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The overall prevalence of infection was 22/213 (10.3%). The infection rate among subjects who drink rainwater collected from roofs in tanks was higher than the rate in subjects who drink desalinated water pumped from wells; similarly, the infection rate among subjects who practice open defecation was significantly higher than that of subjects with latrines. Out of the 22 samples positive for morphologically indistinguishable Entamoeba species, the differentiation by PCR was successful for 21. The species distribution was as follows: 57.1% to E. dispar, 23.8% to E. histolytica, 14.3% to E. histolytica and E. dispar, and 4.8% E. dispar and E. hartmanni. These data suggest a high prevalence of asymptomatic infection by the group of morphologically indistinguishable Entamoeba histolytica/dispar/moshkovskii complex and E. hartmanni species. In this context of water scarcity, the sanitary and socioenvironmental characteristics of the region appear to favour transmission.

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We studied the genetic structure of the sea cucumber Holothuria (Roweothuria) polii (Delle Chiaje 1823) by analysing the mitochondrial DNA variation in two fragments of cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and 16S genes. Individuals were collected in seven locations along the Mediterranean Sea, which cover a wide range of the species distribution. We found high haplotype diversity for COI and moderate diversity for 16S, and low nucleotide diversity for both genes. Our results for the COI gene showed many recent and exclusive haplotypes with few mutational changes, suggesting recent or ongoing population expansion. The Western and Eastern Mediterranean populations exhibited slight but significant genetic differentiation (COI gene) with higher genetic diversity in the East. The most ancient haplotype was not present in the westernmost sampling location (SE Spain). The oldest expansion time was observed in Turkey, corresponding to mid-Pleistocene. Turkey had also the highest genetic diversity (number of total and exclusive haplotypes, polymorphisms, haplotype and nucleotide diversity). This suggests that this region could be the origin of the subsequent colonizations through the Mediterranean Sea, a hypothesis that should be assessed with nuclear markers in future research.

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Ornamental fish may be severely affected by a stressful environment. Stressors impair the immune response, reproduction and growth rate; thus, the identification of possible stressors will aid to improve the overall quality of ornamental fish. The aim of this study was to determine whole-body cortisol of adult zebrafish, Danio rerio, following visual or direct contact with a predator species. Zebrafish were distributed in three groups: the first group, which consisted of zebrafish reared completely isolated of the predator, was considered the negative control; the second group, in which the predator, Parachromis managuensis was stocked together with zebrafish, was considered the positive control; the third group consisted of zebrafish stocked in a glass aquarium, with direct visual contact with the predator. The mean whole-body cortisol concentration in zebrafish from the negative control was 6.78 +/- 1.12 ng g(-1), a concentration statistically lower than that found in zebrafish having visual contact with the predator (9.26 +/- 0.88 ng g(-1)) which, in turn, was statistically lower than the mean whole-body cortisol of the positive control group (12.35 +/- 1.59 ng g(-1)). The higher whole-body cortisol concentration found in fish from the positive control can be attributed to the detection, by the zebrafish, of relevant risk situations that may involve a combination of chemical, olfactory and visual cues. One of the functions of elevated cortisol is to mobilize energy from body resources to cope with stress. The elevation of whole-body cortisol in fish subjected to visual contact with the predator involves only the visual cue in the recognition of predation risk. We hypothesized that the zebrafish could recognize predator characteristics in P managuensis, such as length, shape, color and behavior. Nonetheless, the elevation of whole-body cortisol in zebrafish suggested that the visual contact of the predator may elicit a stress response in prey fish. This assertion has a strong practical application concerning the species distribution in ornamental fish markets in which prey species should not be allowed to see predator species. Minimizing visual contact between prey and predator fish may improve the quality, viability and welfare of small fish in ornamental fish markets. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biologia Animal, 2016.

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The world distribution of cork oak Quercus suber and holm oak Q. rotundifolia is basically restricted to the western Mediterranean basin. These two evergreen oaks are the base of the Portuguese montado and the Spanish dehesa. This thesis aims to analyse how bird communities of the montado are influenced by management practices. We used different approaches to study this relationship, and to evaluate which features are responsible for species distribution in different typologies of montado. First, we reviewed the concept of montado in order to better understand the system and to set thresholds on what can be considered as montado. Afterwards, we studied the elements that promote higher species diversity and individual species, or group of species, that can act as indicators of High Nature Value for montados. Finally, we evaluated how the bird communities are structured, and the influence of the main management actions (e.g. cattle and cork exploitation) on those communities; Resumo: A distribuição mundial do sobreiro Quercus suber e da azinheira Quercus rotundifolia é praticamente restrita à bacia do Mediterrâneo. Estas duas espécies de carvalhos são a base dos montados em Portugal e das dehesas em Espanha. No âmbito desta tese analisamos como as comunidades de aves do montado são influenciadas pela gestão florestal. Para este efeito usámos diferentes abordagens e avaliámos quais as características do montado responsáveis pela distribuição das espécies ao longo das suas diferentes tipologias. Fizemos uma revisão do conceito de montado e proposemos uma definição para o sistema, englobando a sua multifuncionalidade. Estudámos os elementos singulares que promovem a diversidade de aves e que podem ser simultaneamente indicadores de áreas de Alto Valor Natural (HNV). Por fim, avaliámos qual a influência da gestão (p. ex. pastoreio e descortiçamento) na estruturação das comunidades de aves.

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Sawfishes (Chondrichthyes, Pristidae) are considered one of the most endangered families among elasmobranchs. Extensive efforts are required worldwide to gather solid information on historical and recent changes in the composition/range of species. In this study, we have implemented an integrative approach to characterize the species diversity and the abundance of historical rostra of sawfishes from museums and private collections of the Mediterranean area. The identification at the species level of 172 dried rostra was carried out through the integration of both traditional and geometric morphometric techniques with molecular tools, allowing the assessment of a robust methodical approach to discriminate species. In addition, we analysed 35 rostral teeth to clarify the past distribution of sawfish species considering the isotopic composition of oxygen and carbon. The morphometric, molecular, and geographical characterization of samples was accompanied by the preliminary evaluation of growth structures and the inspection of the strontium isotope composition in two teeth to unravel movement patterns of individuals across different salinities of water. Results were integrated with currently available data from public repositories and showed that the historical specimens belonged to four nominal species: Pristis zijsron (81), Anoxypristis cuspidata (39), P. pristis (30), and P. pectinata (22). An identification error of 5.41% emerged in the morphological distinction of rostra between juvenile individuals of P. pectinata and P. zijsron. The new approach of carbon and oxygen isotopes, implemented for the first time in these taxa, permitted the identification of the high-probability habitat preferences of these benthopelagic elasmobranchs in about 50% of the analysed specimens. Using this multidisciplinary approach, we successfully assigned the numerous museum rostra with lacking data to a given species and identified their candidate geographical origin, retrieving novel information and data for understanding the species distribution and ecology of past, sometimes locally/regionally extinct sawfish faunas.

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Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.

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This study updates the geographic distributions of phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil and analyses the climatic factors associated with their occurrence. The data were obtained from the entomology services of the state departments of health in Central-West Brazil, scientific collections and a literature review of articles from 1962-2014. Ecological niche models were produced for sandfly species with more than 20 occurrences using the Maxent algorithm and eight climate variables. In all, 2,803 phlebotomine records for 127 species were analysed. Nyssomyia whitmani,Evandromyia lenti and Lutzomyia longipalpiswere the species with the greatest number of records and were present in all the biomes in Central-West Brazil. The models, which were produced for 34 species, indicated that the Cerrado areas in the central and western regions of Central-West Brazil were climatically more suitable to sandflies. The variables with the greatest influence on the models were the temperature in the coldest months and the temperature seasonality. The results show that phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil have different geographical distribution patterns and that climate conditions in essentially the entire region favour the occurrence of at least one Leishmania vector species, highlighting the need to maintain or intensify vector control and surveillance strategies.

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1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

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Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania. To track the human health effect of climate change it is a very important interdisciplinary question to study whether the climatic requirements and geographical distribution of the vectors of human pathogen organisms correlate with each other. Our study intended to explore the potential effects of ongoing climate change, in particular through a potential upward altitudinal and latitudinal shift of the distribution of the parasite Leishmania infantum, its vectors Phlebotomus ariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. Methods: By using a climate envelope modelling (CEM) method we modelled the current and future (2011-2070) potential distribution of 8 European sandfly species and L. infantum based on the current distribution using the REMO regional climate model. Results: We found that by the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. For all the studied vectors of L. infantum the entire Mediterranean Basin and South-Eastern Europe seemed to be suitable. L. infantum can affect the Eastern Mediterranean, without notable northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2060’s in Southern Hungary. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.

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Dependence of some species on landscape structure has been proved in numerous studies. So far, however, little progress has been made in the integration of landscape metrics in the prediction of species associated with coastal features. Specific landscape metrics were tested as predictors of coastal shape using three coastal features of the Iberian Peninsula (beaches, capes and gulfs) at different scales. We used the landscape metrics in combination with environmental variables to model the niche and find suitable habitats for a seagrass species (Cymodocea nodosa) throughout its entire range of distribution. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. We provided the first global model of the factors that can be shaping the environmental niche and distribution of C. nodosa throughout its range. Sea surface temperature and salinity were the most relevant variables. We identified areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not occupied by the species. We also present some preliminary results of testing historical biogeographical hypotheses derived from distribution predictions under Last Glacial Maximum conditions and genetic diversity data.

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Bonelli’s eagle, Hieraaetus fasciatus , has recently suffered a severe population decline and is currently endangered. Spain supports about 70% of the European population. We used stepwise logistic regression on a set of environmental, spatial and human variables to model Bonelli’s eagle distribution in the 5167 UTM 10 × 10 km quadrats of peninsular Spain. We obtained a model based on 16 variables, which allowed us to identify favourable and unfavourable areas for this species in Spain, as well as intermediate favourability areas. We assessed the stepwise progression of the model by comparing the model’s predictions in each step with those of the final model, and selected a parsimonious explanatory model based on three variables — slope, July temperature and precipitation — comprising 76% of the predictive capacity of the

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Pimelerodius punctiventris sp. nov. (type locality Brazil, Amazonas, Itacoatiara) is described and illustrated. The new taxon is compared with similar species, being distinguished from the other 12 known species of the genus by the presence of punctures in ventrite I. The available published key for identification of species of Pimelerodius is adapted to include the new species. A modification of the generic description of the aedeagus of Pimelerodius is provided, a necessity due to the differences observed in the aedeagus of the new species. The occurrence of P. motacilla (Boheman, 1843) in the Amazon Region, recorded in sympatry with P. punctiventris in Itacoatiara, AM, is discussed and confirmed, based on the study of 41 available specimens.

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Although the rio Capivari basin is recognized as an area of great importance for the ichthyofauna, it lacks virtually every basic requirement for the definition of appropriate conservation strategies, since not even its species composition is known. The objective of this work is to determine the composition and distribution of fish species in the upper rio Capivari basin, relating them to the local physical features, and to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed conservations units, delimited based on areas of native vegetation remains, on the conservation of local ichthyofauna. During 2007, 50 different watercourses were sampled with gillnets, cast nets and kick nets. A total of 1308 individuals belonging to 41 species were captured. Degree of conservation, altitude and width were the parameters that best explained fish species richness. Considering the recently proposed boundaries for potential conservation units in the region only 15 or 20 out of 41 species would be found in the State Park and Environmental Protection Area respectively. In practice, the proposed conservation units would not be effective tools for fish conservation, since it would be located in mountainous areas of high altitude, of headwaters streams and where few species are found. In such context, the conservation of specific stretches of larger rivers is critical.