Stops making sense: translational trade-offs and stop codon reassignment

Background Efficient gene expression involves a trade-off between (i) premature termination of protein synthesis; and (ii) readthrough, where the ribosome fails to dissociate at the terminal stop. Sense codons that are similar in sequence to stop codons are more susceptible to nonsense mutation, and are also likely to be more susceptible to transcriptional or translational errors causing premature termination. We therefore expect this trade-off to be influenced by the number of stop codons in the genetic code. Although genetic codes are highly constrained, stop codon number appears to be their most volatile feature. Results In the human genome, codons readily mutable to stops are underrepresented in coding sequences. We construct a simple mathematical model based on the relative likelihoods of premature termination and readthrough. When readthrough occurs, the resultant protein has a tail of amino acid residues incorrectly added to the C-terminus. Our results depend strongly on the number of stop codons in the genetic code. When the code has more stop codons, premature termination is relatively more likely, particularly for longer genes. When the code has fewer stop codons, the length of the tail added by readthrough will, on average, be longer, and thus more deleterious. Comparative analysis of taxa with a range of stop codon numbers suggests that genomes whose code includes more stop codons have shorter coding sequences. Conclusions We suggest that the differing trade-offs presented by alternative genetic codes may result in differences in genome structure. More speculatively, multiple stop codons may mitigate readthrough, counteracting the disadvantage of a higher rate of nonsense mutation. This could help explain the puzzling overrepresentation of stop codons in the canonical genetic code and most variants.

Conjecture, proof, and sense in Wittgenstein's philosophy of mathematics

One of the key tenets in Wittgenstein’s philosophy of mathematics is that a mathematical proposition gets its meaning from its proof. This seems to have the paradoxical consequence that a mathematical conjecture has no meaning, or at least not the same meaning that it will have once a proof has been found. Hence, it would appear that a conjecture can never be proven true: for what is proven true must ipso facto be a different proposition from what was only conjectured. Moreover, it would appear impossible that the same mathematical proposition be proven in different ways. — I will consider some of Wittgenstein’s remarks on these issues, and attempt to reconstruct his position in a way that makes it appear less paradoxical.

The REFLEX project: Comparing different algorithms and implementations for the inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model against eddy covariance data

We describe a model-data fusion (MDF) inter-comparison project (REFLEX), which compared various algorithms for estimating carbon (C) model parameters consistent with both measured carbon fluxes and states and a simple C model. Participants were provided with the model and with both synthetic net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and leaf area index (LAI) data, generated from the model with added noise, and observed NEE and LAI data from two eddy covariance sites. Participants endeavoured to estimate model parameters and states consistent with the model for all cases over the two years for which data were provided, and generate predictions for one additional year without observations. Nine participants contributed results using Metropolis algorithms, Kalman filters and a genetic algorithm. For the synthetic data case, parameter estimates compared well with the true values. The results of the analyses indicated that parameters linked directly to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, such as those related to foliage allocation and turnover, or temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration, were best constrained and characterised. Poorly estimated parameters were those related to the allocation to and turnover of fine root/wood pools. Estimates of confidence intervals varied among algorithms, but several algorithms successfully located the true values of annual fluxes from synthetic experiments within relatively narrow 90% confidence intervals, achieving >80% success rate and mean NEE confidence intervals <110 gC m−2 year−1 for the synthetic case. Annual C flux estimates generated by participants generally agreed with gap-filling approaches using half-hourly data. The estimation of ecosystem respiration and GPP through MDF agreed well with outputs from partitioning studies using half-hourly data. Confidence limits on annual NEE increased by an average of 88% in the prediction year compared to the previous year, when data were available. Confidence intervals on annual NEE increased by 30% when observed data were used instead of synthetic data, reflecting and quantifying the addition of model error. Finally, our analyses indicated that incorporating additional constraints, using data on C pools (wood, soil and fine roots) would help to reduce uncertainties for model parameters poorly served by eddy covariance data.

On instabilities in data assimilation algorithms

Data assimilation algorithms are a crucial part of operational systems in numerical weather prediction, hydrology and climate science, but are also important for dynamical reconstruction in medical applications and quality control for manufacturing processes. Usually, a variety of diverse measurement data are employed to determine the state of the atmosphere or to a wider system including land and oceans. Modern data assimilation systems use more and more remote sensing data, in particular radiances measured by satellites, radar data and integrated water vapor measurements via GPS/GNSS signals. The inversion of some of these measurements are ill-posed in the classical sense, i.e. the inverse of the operator H which maps the state onto the data is unbounded. In this case, the use of such data can lead to significant instabilities of data assimilation algorithms. The goal of this work is to provide a rigorous mathematical analysis of the instability of well-known data assimilation methods. Here, we will restrict our attention to particular linear systems, in which the instability can be explicitly analyzed. We investigate the three-dimensional variational assimilation and four-dimensional variational assimilation. A theory for the instability is developed using the classical theory of ill-posed problems in a Banach space framework. Further, we demonstrate by numerical examples that instabilities can and will occur, including an example from dynamic magnetic tomography.

Keep making sense

In a number works Jerry Fodor has defended a reductive, causal and referential theory of cognitive content. I argue against this, defending a quasi-Fregean notion of cognitive content, and arguing also that the cognitive content of non-singular concepts is narrow, rather than wide.

Making sense of survival: refining the treatment of state preferences in neorealist theory

The assumption that ‘states' primary goal is survival’ lies at the heart of the neorealist paradigm. A careful examination of the assumption, however, reveals that neorealists draw upon a number of distinct interpretations of the ‘survival assumption’ that are then treated as if they are the same, pointing towards conceptual problems that surround the treatment of state preferences. This article offers a specification that focuses on two questions that highlight the role and function of the survival assumption in the neorealist logic: (i) what do states have to lose if they fail to adopt self-help strategies?; and (ii) how does concern for relevant losses motivate state behaviour and affect international outcomes? Answering these questions through the exploration of governing elites' sensitivity towards regime stability and territorial integrity of the state, in turn, addresses the aforementioned conceptual problems. This specification has further implications for the debates among defensive and offensive realists, potential extensions of the neorealist logic beyond the Westphalian states, and the relationship between neorealist theory and policy analysis.