Gene flow, risk assessment and the environmental release of transgenic plants

The release of genetically modified plants is governed by regulations that aim to provide an assessment of potential impact on the environment. One of the most important components of this risk assessment is an evaluation of the probability of gene flow. In this review, we provide an overview of the current literature on gene flow from transgenic plants, providing a framework of issues for those considering the release of a transgenic plant into the environment. For some plants gene flow from transgenic crops is well documented, and this information is discussed in detail in this review. Mechanisms of gene flow vary from plant species to plant species and range from the possibility of asexual propagation, short- or long-distance pollen dispersal mediated by insects or wind and seed dispersal. Volunteer populations of transgenic plants may occur where seed is inadvertently spread during harvest or commercial distribution. If there are wild populations related to the transgenic crop then hybridization and eventually introgression in the wild may occur, as it has for herbicide resistant transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Tools to measure the amount of gene flow, experimental data measuring the distance of pollen dispersal, and experiments measuring hybridization and seed survivability are discussed in this review. The various methods that have been proposed to prevent gene flow from genetically modified plants are also described. The current "transgenic traits'! in the major crops confer resistance to herbicides and certain insects. Such traits could confer a selective advantage (an increase in fitness) in wild plant populations in some circumstances, were gene flow to occur. However, there is ample evidence that gene flow from crops to related wild species occurred before the development of transgenic crops and this should be taken into account in the risk assessment process.

ApoE genotype, cardiovascular risk and responsiveness to dietary fat manipulation

Cardiovascular risk is determined by the complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. The apoE genotype represents the most-widely-studied single nucleotide polymorphism in relation to CVD risk, with >3600 publications cited in PubMed. Although originally described as a mediator of lipoprotein metabolism, the lipoprotein-independent functions of apoE are being increasingly recognised, with limited data available on the potential impact of genotype on these metabolic processes. Furthermore, although meta-analyses suggest that apoE4 carriers may have a 40-50% increased CVD risk, the associations reported in individual studies are highly heterogeneous and it is recognised that environmental factors such as smoking status and dietary fat composition influence genotype-phenotype associations. However, information is often derived from observational studies or small intervention trials in which retrospective genotyping of the cohort results in small group sizes in the rarer E2 and E4 subgroups. Either larger well-standardised intervention trials or smaller trials with prospective recruitment according to apoE genotype are needed to fully establish the impact of diet on genotype-CVD associations and to establish the potential of dietary strategies such as reduced total fat, saturated fat, or increased antioxidant intakes to counteract the increased CVD burden in apoE4 carriers.

The impact of EPA and DHA on blood lipids and lipoprotein metabolism: influence of apoE genotype

Fish and fish oil-rich sources of long-chain n-3 fatty acids have been shown to be cardio-protective, through a multitude of different pathways including effects on arrythymias, endothelial function, inflammation and thrombosis, as well as modulation of both the fasting and postprandial blood lipid profile. To date the majority of studies have examined the impact of EPA and DHA fed simultaneously as fish or fish oil supplements. However, a number of recent studies have compared the relative biopotency of EPA v. DHA in relation to their effect on blood lipid levels. Although many beneficial effects of fish oils have been demonstrated, concern exists about the potential deleterious impact of EPA and DHA on LDL-cholesterol, with a highly-heterogenous response of this lipid fraction reported in the literature. Recent evidence suggests that apoE genotype may be in part responsible. In the present review the impact of EPA and DHA on cardiovascular risk and the blood lipoprotein profile will be considered, with a focus on the apoE gene locus as a possible determinant of lipid responsiveness to fish oil intervention.

Socioemotional development in adolescents at risk for depression: the role of maternal depression and attachment style

We examined the impact on adolescent socioemotional functioning of maternal postnatal depression (PND) and attachment style. We also investigated the role of earlier aspects of the child's development-attachment in infancy, and 5-year representations of family relationships. Ninety-one mother-child pairs, recruited in the postnatal period, were followed tip at 13 years. Adolescents were interviewed about their friendships, and their level of emotional sensitivity and maturity were rated. Emotional sensitivity was heightened in girls whose mothers experienced PND; notably, its occurrence was also linked to insecure attachment in infancy and raised awareness of emotional components of family relationships at 5 years. High emotional sensitivity was also associated with adolescent depressed mood. Raised social maturity was predicted by a secure maternal attachment style and, for girls, by exposure to maternal PND. Precursors of adolescent social maturity were evident in the narrative coherence of 5-year family representations. Higher social maturity in the friendship interview was also associated with overall good adjustment.

The impact of parents' expectations on parenting behaviour: an experimental investigation

Over-involved parenting is commonly hypothesized to be it risk factor for the development of anxiety disorders in childhood. This parenting style may result from parental attempts to prevent child distress based on expectations that the child will be unable to cope in a challenging situation. Naturalistic studies are limited in their ability to disentangle the overlapping contribution of child and parent factors in driving parental behaviours. To overcome this difficulty, an experimental study was conducted in which parental expectations of child distress were manipulated and the effects on parent behaviour and child mood were assessed. Fifty-two children (aged 7 - 11 years) and their primary caregiver participated. Parents were allocated to either a "positive" or a "negative" expectation group. Observations were made of the children and their parents interacting whilst completing a difficult anagram task. Parents given negative expectations of their child's response displayed higher levels of involvement. No differences were found on indices of child mood and behaviour and possible explanations for this are considered. The findings are consistent with suggestions that increased parental involvement may be a "natural" reaction to enhanced perceptions of child vulnerability and an attempt to avoid child distress.

Impact of psychiatric disturbance on identifying psychiatric disorder in relatives: study of mothers and daughters

Previous studies have suggested that collecting psychiatric data on relatives in family studies by asking probands to provide information on them leads to a bias in estimates of morbidity risk, because probands' accounts are influenced by their own psychiatric histories. We investigated this in a UK sample and found that daughters' anxiety disorder histories did not influence their reports of anxiety disorder in mothers, but their history of mood disorder/alcohol dependence made them more sensitive in predicting mood disorder/alcohol dependence in mothers.

Quantifying the impact of land-use change on European farmland bird populations

The EU has adopted the European Farmland Bird Index (EFBI) as a Structural and Sustainable Development Indicator and a proxy for wider biodiversity health on farmland. Changes in the EFBI over coming years are likely to reflect how well agri-environment schemes (AES), funded under Pillar 2 (Axis 2) of the Common Agricultural Policy, have been able to offset the detrimental impacts of past agricultural changes and deliver appropriate hazard prevention or risk mitigation strategies alongside current and future agricultural change. The delivery of a stable or positive trend in the EFBI will depend on the provision of sufficient funding to appropriately designed and implemented AES. We present a trait-based framework which can be used to quantify the detrimental impact of land-use change on farmland bird populations across Europe. We use the framework to show that changes in resource availability within the cropped area of agricultural landscapes have been the key driver of current declines in farmland bird populations. We assess the relative contribution of each Member State to the level of the EFBI and explore the relationship between risk contribution and Axis 2 funding allocation. Our results suggest that agricultural changes in each Member State do not have an equal impact on the EFBI, with land-use and management change in Spain having a particularly large influence on its level, and that funding is poorly targeted with respect to biodiversity conservation needs. We also use the framework to predict the EFBI in 2020 for a number of land-use change scenarios. This approach can be used to guide both the development and implementation of targeted AES and the objective distribution of Pillar 2 funds between and within Member States. We hope that this will contribute to the cost-effective and efficient delivery of Rural Development strategy and biodiversity conservation targets.

Fruit polyphenols and CVD risk: a review of human intervention studies.

Epidemiological evidence suggests that polyphenols may, in part, explain the cardioprotective properties of fruits. This review aims to summarise the evidence for the effects of fruit polyphenols on four risk factors of CVD: platelet function, blood pressure, vascular function and blood lipids. This review includes human dietary intervention studies investigating fruits and their polyphenols. There was some evidence to suggest that fruits containing relatively high concentrations of flavonols, anthocyanins and procyanindins, such as pomegranate, purple grapes and berries, were effective at reducing CVD risk factors, particularly with respect to anti-hypertensive effects, inhibition of platelet aggregation and increasing endothelial-dependent vasodilation than other fruits investigated. Flavanone-rich fruits, such as oranges and grapefruits, were reported to have hypocholesterolaemic effects, with little impact on other risk factors being examined. However, the evidence was limited, inconsistent and often inconclusive. This is in part due to the heterogeneity in the design of studies, the lack of controls, the relatively short intervention periods and low power in several studies. Details of the polyphenol content of the fruits investigated were also omitted in some studies, negating comparison of data. It is recommended that large, well-powered, long-term human dietary intervention studies investigating a wider range of fruits are required to confirm these observations. Investigations into the potential synergistic effects of polyphenols on a combination of CVD risk markers, dose–response relationships and standardisation in methodology would facilitate the comparison of studies and also provide valuable information on the types of fruits which could confer protection against CVD.

The impact of maternal control on children’s anxious cognitions, behaviours and affect: an experimental study

Controlling parenting is associated with child anxiety however the direction of effects remains unclear. The present study implemented a Latin-square experimental design to assess the impact of parental control on children’s anxious affect, cognitions and behaviour. A non-clinical sample of 24 mothers of children aged 4-5 years were trained to engage in (a) controlling and (b) autonomy-granting behaviours in interaction with their child during the preparation of a speech. When mothers engaged in controlling parenting behaviours, children made more negative predictions about their performance prior to delivering their speech and reported feeling less happy about the task, and this was moderated by child trait anxiety. In addition, children with higher trait anxiety displayed a significant increase in observed child anxiety in the controlling condition. The pattern of results was maintained when differences in mothers’ levels of negativity and habitual levels of control were accounted for. These findings are consistent with theories that suggest that controlling parenting is a risk factor in the development of childhood anxiety.

Entropic risk analysis by a high level decision support system (e-FDSS) for construction SMEs

The method of entropy has been useful in evaluating inconsistency on human judgments. This paper illustrates an entropy-based decision support system called e-FDSS to the solution of multicriterion risk and decision analysis in projects of construction small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It is optimized and solved by fuzzy logic, entropy, and genetic algorithms. A case study demonstrated the use of entropy in e-FDSS on analyzing multiple risk criteria in the predevelopment stage of SME projects. Survey data studying the degree of impact of selected project risk criteria on different projects were input into the system in order to evaluate the preidentified project risks in an impartial environment. Without taking into account the amount of uncertainty embedded in the evaluation process; the results showed that all decision vectors are indeed full of bias and the deviations of decisions are finally quantified providing a more objective decision and risk assessment profile to the stakeholders of projects in order to search and screen the most profitable projects.

A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning

Although the use of climate scenarios for impact assessment has grown steadily since the 1990s, uptake of such information for adaptation is lagging by nearly a decade in terms of scientific output. Nonetheless, integration of climate risk information in development planning is now a priority for donor agencies because of the need to prepare for climate change impacts across different sectors and countries. This urgency stems from concerns that progress made against Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could be threatened by anthropogenic climate change beyond 2015. Up to this time the human signal, though detectable and growing, will be a relatively small component of climate variability and change. This implies the need for a twin-track approach: on the one hand, vulnerability assessments of social and economic strategies for coping with present climate extremes and variability, and, on the other hand, development of climate forecast tools and scenarios to evaluate sector-specific, incremental changes in risk over the next few decades. This review starts by describing the climate outlook for the next couple of decades and the implications for adaptation assessments. We then review ways in which climate risk information is already being used in adaptation assessments and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of three groups of techniques. Next we identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for improving the production and uptake of climate risk information for the 2020s. We assert that climate change scenarios can meet some, but not all, of the needs of adaptation planning. Even then, the choice of scenario technique must be matched to the intended application, taking into account local constraints of time, resources, human capacity and supporting infrastructure. We also show that much greater attention should be given to improving and critiquing models used for climate impact assessment, as standard practice. Finally, we highlight the over-arching need for the scientific community to provide more information and guidance on adapting to the risks of climate variability and change over nearer time horizons (i.e. the 2020s). Although the focus of the review is on information provision and uptake in developing regions, it is clear that many developed countries are facing the same challenges. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Impact of age and menopausal status on the postprandial triacylglycerol response in healthy women

Objective: To examine the impact of age and the natural menopause on the postprandial triacylglycerol (TAG) response in healthy women. Methods and results: Thirty-seven premenopausal and sixty-one postmenopausal women underwent a sequential meal postprandial investigation, in which blood samples were taken at regular intervals after a test breakfast and lunch given at 0 and 330 min respectively. Lipids and glucose were measured in the fasting sample, with TAG analysed in the postprandial samples. Postmenopausal women were shown to have higher fasting total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and glucose (P < 0.02). Marked differences in the postprandial TAG response were evident between the groups, with a greater incremental area under the curve (IAUC) and maximum TAG concentration in the postmenopausal women (P < 0.04). Multivariate regression analysis revealed both age and fasting TAG to be independently associated with the summary measures of the postprandial TAG response in the premenopausal women only. Interestingly, sub-division of the women into both younger and older pre- and postmenopausal subgroups, showed the most marked difference in TAG-IAUC to be between the younger and the older premenopausal women, whereas differences in fasting LDL-C were most evident between the older premenopausal and the younger postmenopausal women. Conclusions: Our results suggest a divergence in the relationship of age and menopausal status with fasting LDL-C and postprandial TAG which may reflect differences in the metabolic effects of age and the menopause on these lipid risk markers or a greater impact of early oestrogen decline on pathways of TAG rather than LDL metabolism.

The impact of exchanges rates on international real estate portfolio allocation

This paper, examines whether the asset holdings and weights of an international real estate portfolio using exchange rate adjusted returns are essentially the same or radically different from those based on unadjusted returns. The results indicate that the portfolio compositions produced by exchange rate adjusted returns are markedly different from those based on unadjusted returns. However following the introduction of the single currency the differences in portfolio composition are much less pronounced. The findings have a practical consequence for the investor because they suggest that following the introduction of the single currency international investors can concentrate on the real estate fundamentals when making their portfolio choices, rather than worry about the implications of exchange rate risk.

The impact of real estate on the terminal wealth of the UK mixed-asset portfolio

The argument for the inclusion of real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio has concentrated on examining its effect in reducing the portfolio risk - the time series standard deviation (TSSD), mainly using ex-post time series data. However, the past as such is not really relevant to the long-term institutional investors, such as the insurance companies and pension funds, who are more concerned the terminal wealth (TW) of their investments and the variability of this wealth, the terminal wealth standard deviation (TWSD), since it is from the TW of their investment portfolio that policyholders and pensioners will derive their benefits. These kinds of investors with particular holding period requirements will be less concerned about the within period volatility of their portfolios and more by the possibility that their portfolio returns will fail to finance their liabilities. This variability in TW will be closely linked to the risk of shortfall in the quantity of assets needed to match the institution’s liabilities. The question remains therefore can real estate enhance the TW of the mixed-asset portfolio and/or reduce the variability of the TW. This paper uses annual data from the United Kingdom (UK) for the period 1972-2001 to test whether real estate is an asset class that not only reduces ex-post portfolio risk but also enhances portfolio TW and/or reduces the variability of TW.

The impact of real estate on the mixed-asset portfolio in periods of financial stress

The case for holding real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio is typically made on its stabilising effect as a result of its diversification benefits. However, portfolio diversification often fails when it is most needed, i.e. during periods of financial stress. In these periods, the variability of returns for most asset classes increases thus reducing the stabilising effect of a diversified portfolio. This paper applies the approach of Chow et al (1999) to the US domestic mixed-asset portfolio to establish whether real estate, represented by REITs, is especially useful in times of financial stress. To this end monthly returns data on five assets classes: large cap stocks, small cap stocks, long dated government bonds, cash (T-Bills) and real estate (REITs) are evaluated over the period January 1972 to December 2001. The results indicate that the inclusion of REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio can lead to increases or decreases in returns depending on the asset class replaced and whether the period is one of calm or stress. However, the inclusion of REITs invariably leads to reductions in portfolio risk that are greater than any loss in return, especially in periods of financial stress. In other words, REITs acts as a stabilising force on the mixed-asset portfolio when it is most needed, i.e. in periods of financial stress.