Análise de conflitos de usos múltiplos da água auxiliada por simulação computacional: bacia do rio Sapucaí - Mirim/Grande

Na mesma proporção que fontes de água potável são reduzidas, a competição por elas tem aumentado, conseqüência imediata da expansão de áreas urbanas e de novas demandas agro-industriais. Os conflitos gerados por esta competição tendem a comprometer o desenvolvimento sustentável e o progresso de uma forma geral, uma vez que resultam em perda de eficácia para vultuosos investimentos públicos e privados e em prejuízos para os usuários menos estruturados. Considerando os fatos acima, o objeto deste trabalho é o estabelecimento de cenários de alocação das disponibilidades hídricas entre usuários de água da bacia do Sapucaí-Mirim/Grande, visando determinar a convivência harmoniosa das várias finalidades de uso provenientes do mesmo recurso hídrico. Tal meta poderá ser alcançada através da análise dos indicadores de desempenho - confiabilidade, vulnerabilidade e resiliência - do sistema os quais serão obtidos com o auxílio do modelo de simulação IRAS (Interactive River Aquifer Simulation).

Análise do aproveitamento múltiplo do reservatório de Barra Bonita - SP, através da aplicação de técnica de programação linear associada a modelo de rede de fluxo

O objeto deste trabalho é a análise do aproveitamento múltiplo do reservatório de Barra Bonita, localizado na confluência entre os rios Piracicaba e Tietê, no estado de São Paulo e pertencente ao chamado sistema Tietê-Paraná. Será realizada a otimização da operação do reservatório, através de programação linear, com o objetivo de aumentar a geração de energia elétrica, através da maximização da vazão turbinada. Em seguida, a partir dos resultados da otimização da geração de energia, serão utilizadas técnicas de simulação computacional, para se obter índices de desempenho conhecidos como confiabilidade, resiliência e vulnerabilidade, além de outros fornecidos pelo próprio modelo de simulação a ser utilizado. Estes índices auxiliam a avaliação da freqüência, magnitude e duração dos possíveis conflitos existentes. Serão analisados os possíveis conflitos entre a navegação, o armazenamento no reservatório, a geração de energia e a ocorrência de enchentes na cidade de Barra Bonita, localizada a jusante da barragem.

Modelagem e análise das cadeias de suprimentos globais e resilientes baseadas em rede de Petri.

Em um cenário de aumento de competitividade, crescente expectativa por inovações do produto e necessidade de atender diferentes perfis de consumidores, o conceito de gerenciamento de cadeias de suprimentos globais (GSCM) surge como uma estratégia para coordenar mais eficazmente as atividades dispersas geograficamente dos sistemas produtivos. Na adoção do GSCM, as organizações devem lidar com rupturas que impactam no gerenciamento das suas atividades, tais como a interrupção de vias de transporte, pane no fornecimento de energia, desastres naturais e até ataques terroristas. Nesse contexto, o trabalho introduz um procedimento sistematizado para modelagem das cadeias de suprimentos visto como um sistema a eventos discretos e sua análise por simulação das atividades do GSCM baseada em técnicas formais como a rede de Petri (PN) e o Production Flow Schema (PFS). Um exemplo é também apresentado para ilustrar e comprovar as vantagens do método proposto na análise do GSCM.

Resilience through Adversity: A narrative case study of students' experiences of expulsion from school

Expulsion from school is life changing. This single event can alter the trajectory of a student's life--for better or for worse. How life changes is unique for each individual student. Risk and protective factors that impact an individual student's resilience determine the level of positive or negative outcomes experienced as a result of expulsion. Educators have the opportunity to take advantage of this disruption in students' education to improve the trajectory of students' lives. However, without thoughtful intervention from caring educators, this interruption in students' education may have an irreparable destructive impact on students' future. The purpose of this study was to understand the expulsion experience from the point of view of the student in order to represent this critical stakeholder group in future policy and program development, implementation, and decision-making. Students' narratives are a means for members of the educational community to access students' experiences and perceptions in order to understand the impact of expulsion on students' lives. Students' perspectives are presented through thick description in this narrative case study. The experience of these eight students is evidence that expulsion can change students' lives in a positive way. Knowing this, responsible educators must develop interventions for expelled students that channel the positive life-changing potential of this experience. Educators must develop interventions focused on bringing forth protective factors that are documented to increase resilience and to make students less susceptible to the risks inherent in removing them from school. Recommendations for educators and policy-makers are presented to assist educators in preventing expulsion and improving educational and socio-emotional outcomes for expelled students.

Building Resilience in Young Black Males: Determining the Factors that Lead to Success for Black Men in America

It is no secret that Black men have struggled over the years to obtain the same level of high earning financial success as their White counterparts. Black men face an incredible challenge with regard to educational obtainment, career success, and physical health. Black men are often revered as the most dangerous, least educated, and more unhealthy than any other race or gender. This must change. This researcher investigated the lives of eight successful Black men with the hope of determining how they were able to attain their success. The findings of this research suggest that there are several factors that are key contributors in becoming a successful Black man in America. With a greater understanding of how Black men have managed to gain success, despite the obstacles they have faced, it is hopeful that this research will help other Black men reach the level of success that is often desired and seldom realized.

Ethnic Violence on Kenya's Periphery: Informal Institutions and Local Resilience in Conflict-Affected Communities

Deadly, inter-ethnic group conflict remains a threat to international security in a world where the majority of armed violence occurs not only within states but in the most ungoverned areas within states. Conflicts that occur between groups living in largely ungoverned areas often become deeply protracted and are difficult to resolve when the state is weak and harsh environmental conditions place human security increasingly under threat. However, even under these conditions, why do some local conflicts between ethnic groups escalate, whereas others do not? To analyze this puzzle, the dissertation employs comparative methods to investigate the conditions under which violence erupts or stops and armed actors choose to preserve peace. The project draws upon qualitative data derived from semi-structured interviews, focus group dialogues, and participant observation of local peace processes during field research conducted in six conflict-affected counties in Northern Kenya. Comparative analysis of fifteen conflict episodes with variable outcomes reveals the conditions under which coalitions of civic associations, including local peace committees, faith-based organizations, and councils of elders, inter alia, enhance informal institutional arrangements that contain escalation. Violence is less likely to escalate in communities where cohesive coalitions provide platforms for threat-monitoring, informal pact making, and enforcement of traditional codes of restitution. However, key scope conditions affect whether or not informal organizational structures are capable of containing escalation. In particular, symbolic acts of violence and the use of indiscriminant force by police and military actors commonly undermine local efforts to contain conflict. The dissertation contributes to the literatures on civil society and peacebuilding, demonstrating the importance of comparing processes of escalation and non-escalation and accounting for interactive effects between modes of state and non-state response to local, inter-ethnic group conflict.

Feedbacks between vegetation pattern and resource loss dramatically decrease ecosystem resilience and restoration potential in a simple dryland model

Conceptual frameworks of dryland degradation commonly include ecohydrological feedbacks between landscape spatial organization and resource loss, so that decreasing cover and size of vegetation patches result in higher water and soil losses, which lead to further vegetation loss. However, the impacts of these feedbacks on dryland dynamics in response to external stress have barely been tested. Using a spatially-explicit model, we represented feedbacks between vegetation pattern and landscape resource loss by establishing a negative dependence of plant establishment on the connectivity of runoff-source areas (e.g., bare soils). We assessed the impact of various feedback strengths on the response of dryland ecosystems to changing external conditions. In general, for a given external pressure, these connectivity-mediated feedbacks decrease vegetation cover at equilibrium, which indicates a decrease in ecosystem resistance. Along a gradient of gradual increase of environmental pressure (e.g., aridity), the connectivity-mediated feedbacks decrease the amount of pressure required to cause a critical shift to a degraded state (ecosystem resilience). If environmental conditions improve, these feedbacks increase the pressure release needed to achieve the ecosystem recovery (restoration potential). The impact of these feedbacks on dryland response to external stress is markedly non-linear, which relies on the non-linear negative relationship between bare-soil connectivity and vegetation cover. Modelling studies on dryland vegetation dynamics not accounting for the connectivity-mediated feedbacks studied here may overestimate the resistance, resilience and restoration potential of drylands in response to environmental and human pressures. Our results also suggest that changes in vegetation pattern and associated hydrological connectivity may be more informative early-warning indicators of dryland degradation than changes in vegetation cover.

Resilience by solidary ties

This article considers an empirical approach to the relationships among three well known concepts: “Benevolence” (Schwartz), Solidarity and Resilience ("Subjective wellbeing scale" - SWB). The first concept refers to cultural values, the second one to social networks and the third to the ability to recover from crisis. The measurement of solidarity has been done from the point of view of supportive ties. The baseline hypothesis considers that the presence of a high value in Benevolence contributes to the involvements in solidarity networks. Participation in supportive relationships facilitates recovery from personal crisis. Using data from the European Social Survey (ESS6), we conclude from this structural analysis that the resilience reflected in a society is partly a consequence of the supportive networks shaped by the presence of benevolence values.

Cultural Politics of Resilience in Kingston, Jamaica

Recently, resilience has become a catchall solution for some of the world’s most pressing ecological, economic and social problems. This dissertation analyzes the cultural politics of resilience in Kingston, Jamaica by examining them through their purported universal principles of adaptation and flexibility. On the one hand, mainstream development regimes conceptualize resilience as a necessary and positive attribute of economies, societies and cultures if we are to survive any number of disasters or disturbances. Therefore, in Jamaican cultural and development policy resilience is championed as both a means and an end of development. On the other hand, critics of resilience see the new rollout of resilience projects as deepening neoliberalism, capitalism and new forms of governmentality because resilience projects provide the terrain for new forms of securitization and surveillance practices. These scholars argue that resilience often forecloses the possibilities to resist that which threatens us. However, rather than dismissing resilience as solely a sign of domination and governmentality, this dissertation argues that resilience must be understood as much more ambiguous and complex, rather than within binaries such as subversion vs. neoliberal and resistance vs. resilience. Overly simplistic dualities of this nature have been the dominant approach in the scholarship thus far. This dissertation provides a close analysis of resilience in both multilateral and Jamaican government policy documents, while exploring the historical and contemporary production of resilience in the lives of marginalized populations. Through three sites within Kingston, Jamaica—namely dancehall and street dances, WMW-Jamaica and the activist platform SO((U))L HQ—this dissertation demonstrates that “resilience” is best understood as an ambiguous site of power negotiations, social reproduction and survival in Jamaica today. It is often precisely this ambiguous power of ordinary resilience that is capitalized on and exploited to the detriment of vulnerable groups. At once demonstrating creative negotiation and reproduction of colonial capitalist social relations within the realms of NGO, activist work and cultural production, this dissertation demonstrates the complexity of resilience. Ultimately, this dissertation draws attention to the importance of studying spaces of cultural production in order to understand the power and limits of contemporary policy discourses and political economy. 

Violência conjugal: dados sócio-demográficos, comportamentos e crenças associados: fragmentos de um amor menor

A violência doméstica tornou-se um fenómeno social de grande complexidade, que não pode ser tratado de forma superficial, seja por parte daqueles que intervêm tecnicamente, seja por parte das vítimas e agressores, pois trata-se da vida real de muitos indivíduos ou sujeitos. Deste modo, tornou-se necessário analisar a violência doméstica, procurando perceber o papel dos agentes, em especial dos técnicos, que acompanham as vítimas de violência doméstica na construção do seu projecto de vida. Para a realização deste estudo, fiz uma abordagem dos diferentes conceitos de violência doméstica, fundamental neste trabalho, em virtude da complexidade e controvérsia que a sua definição implica para diferentes autores e abordagens teóricas. Naturalmente que, se o tema da violência doméstica atravessa todo o trabalho, era indispensável ouvir as vítimas desta problemática quanto ao seu sofrimento, coragem e resiliência, ou abandono do lar e acompanhamento recebido. Assim sendo, e porque pretendi fazer uma análise à forma como é realizado o acompanhamento e intervenção por parte dos técnicos, este trabalho apresenta ainda uma investigação empírica realizada através da aplicação de inquéritos por questionário vítimas e não vítimas de violência doméstica, bem como a caracterização dos dados sociodemográficos do distrito de Portalegre. O tratamento e análise dos dados permitiram confirmar, em larga medida, a fundamentação teórica apresentada na primeira parte do estudo onde se verificou haver a divergência no conceito de violência doméstica, as vítimas serem predominantemente do sexo feminino e os agressores do sexo masculino, os vários motivos que levam as vítimas a permanecer na relação e a importância do papel dos técnicos de acompanhamento na definição de projectos de vida alternativos.

Desenvolvimento de competências sociais no cuidador informal

O cuidador informal tem nos últimos anos ganho visibilidade em inúmeras investigações. No entanto, não foram encontrados registos em Portugal relativamente às competências do cuidador informal e a forma como a exposição a um programa de informação o pode influenciar. Desta forma, foi desenvolvido o presente estudo no âmbito do desenvolvimento de competências no cuidador informal, recorrendo à metodologia de investigação ação. A estratégia metodológica utilizada na componente da ação (característica basilar na metodologia selecionada) consistiu na realização de um conjunto de sessões em contexto de domicílio com os cuidadores informais. Pretendeu-se com esta estratégia expor os cuidadores a um conjunto de informações e intervenções planeadas de acordo com as suas necessidades. Durante o estudo foram utilizados instrumentos de recolha de dados de natureza quantitativa e qualitativa. Salientamos ainda que em contexto de domicílio, foram também utilizadas outras estratégias e técnicas de desenvolvimento de competências sociais que permitiram complementar a informação a que os cuidadores foram expostos. Os instrumentos referidos anteriormente foram utilizados numa população de seis cuidadores provenientes do distrito de Portalegre. Após a realização do estudo foi possível verificar que as visitas domiciliárias são uma estratégia de ação que influenciam o desenvolvimento de competências sociais no cuidador informal, a informação adequada ao cuidador influencia o conhecimento dos cuidadores informais relativamente ao ato de cuidar, os cuidadores informais que têm redes familiares apresentam uma maior resiliência, o desenvolvimento de competências sociais influencia a sobrecarga no cuidador informal, que o aumento da resiliência influencia os níveis de sobrecarga nos cuidadores informais e que os cuidadores informais que identificam e gerem as emoções apresentam menor sobrecarga.

Escola - família - comunidade como factores promotores da resiliência educacional em jovens institucionalizados e ex-institucionalizados

A presente dissertação pretende inferir acerca dos fatores familiares, escolares e comunitários que poderão estar na origem do despertar ou despoletar da capacidade resiliente a nível educacional em jovens institucionalizados. Partindo da análise de seis testemunhos de jovens alunos que se encontram em situação de acolhimento e, de outros dois testemunhos de Jovens que já se encontraram na mesma situação de institucionalização. Pretende inferir-se acerca dos factores e/ou figuras que na visão e experiências vivenciadas por estes jovens nas distintas dimensões sociais em que se move, e que contribuíram para o despoletar de uma atitude resiliente face à instituição escolar. Esta dissertação apresenta-se como um estudo qualitativo no que concerne tanto às suas opções como ao seu processo metodológico.

Long-term Responses of Mountain Ecosystems to Environmental Changes: Resilience, Adjustment, and Vulnerability

The steep environmental gradients of mountain ecosystems over short distances reflect large gradients of several climatic parameters and hence provide excellent possibilities for ecological research on the effects of environmental change. To gain a better understanding of the dynamics of abiotic and biotic parameters of mountain ecosystems, long-term records are required since permanent plots in mountain regions cover in the best case about 50 - 70 years. In order to extend investigations of ecological dynamics beyond these temporal limitations of permanent plots, paleoecological approaches can be used if the sampling resolution can be adapted to ecological research questions, e.g. a sample every 10 years. Paleoecological studies in mountain ecosystems can provide new ecological insights through the combination of different spatial and temporal scales. [f we thus improve our understanding of processes across both steep environmental gradients and different time scales, we may be able to better estimate ecosystem responses to current and future environmental change (Ammann et al. 1993; Lotter et al. 1997). The complexity of ecological interactions in mountain regions forces us to concentrate on a number of sub-systems - without losing sight of the wider context. Here, we summarize a few case studies on the effects of Holocene climate change and disturbance on the vegetation of the Western Alps. To categorize the main response modes of vegetation to climatic change and disturbance in the Alps we use three classes of ecological behaviour: "resilience", "adjustment", and "vulnerability", We assume a resilient (or elastic) behaviour if vegetation is able to recover to its former state, regaining important ecosystem characteristics, such as floristic composition, biodiversity, species abundances, and biomass (e.g. Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1). Conversely, vegetation displacements may occur in response to climatic change and/or disturbance. In some cases, this may culminate in irreversible large-scale processes such as species and/or community extinctions. Such drastic developments indicate high ecosystem vulnerability (or inelasticity or instability, for detailed definitions see Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1) to climatic change and/or disturbance. In this sense, the "vulnerability" (or instability) of an ecosystem is expressed by the degree of failure to recover to the original state before disturbance and/or climatic change. Between these two extremes (resilience vs. vulnerability), ecosystem adjustments to climatic change and/or disturbance may occur, including the appearance of new and/or the disappearance of old species. The term "adjustment" is hence used to indicate the response of vegetational communities, which adapted to new environmental conditions without losing their main character. For forest ecosystems, we assume vegetational adjustments (rather than vulnerability) if the dominant (or co-dominant) tree species are not outnumbered or replaced by formerly unimportant plant species or new invaders. Adaptation as a genetic process is not discussed here and will require additional pbylogeographical studies (that incorporate the analysis of ancient DNA) in order to fully understand the distributions of ecotypes.