What drives invasibility? A multi-model inference test and spatial modelling of alien plant species richness patterns in northern Portugal

Understanding and anticipating biological invasions can focus either on traits that favour species invasiveness or on features of the receiving communities, habitats or landscapes that promote their invasibility. Here, we address invasibility at the regional scale, testing whether some habitats and landscapes are more invasible than others by fitting models that relate alien plant species richness to various environmental predictors. We use a multi-model information-theoretic approach to assess invasibility by modelling spatial and ecological patterns of alien invasion in landscape mosaics and testing competing hypotheses of environmental factors that may control invasibility. Because invasibility may be mediated by particular characteristics of invasiveness, we classified alien species according to their C-S-R plant strategies. We illustrate this approach with a set of 86 alien species in Northern Portugal. We first focus on predictors influencing species richness and expressing invasibility and then evaluate whether distinct plant strategies respond to the same or different groups of environmental predictors. We confirmed climate as a primary determinant of alien invasions and as a primary environmental gradient determining landscape invasibility. The effects of secondary gradients were detected only when the area was sub-sampled according to predictions based on the primary gradient. Then, multiple predictor types influenced patterns of alien species richness, with some types (landscape composition, topography and fire regime) prevailing over others. Alien species richness responded most strongly to extreme land management regimes, suggesting that intermediate disturbance induces biotic resistance by favouring native species richness. Land-use intensification facilitated alien invasion, whereas conservation areas hosted few invaders, highlighting the importance of ecosystem stability in preventing invasions. Plants with different strategies exhibited different responses to environmental gradients, particularly when the variations of the primary gradient were narrowed by sub-sampling. Such differential responses of plant strategies suggest using distinct control and eradication approaches for different areas and alien plant groups.

Accuracy of four cardiovascular risk scores in a Swiss population-based cohort

Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.

New microfluidic-based sampling procedure for overcoming the hematocrit problem associated with dried blood spot analysis.

Hematocrit (Hct) is one of the most critical issues associated with the bioanalytical methods used for dried blood spot (DBS) sample analysis. Because Hct determines the viscosity of blood, it may affect the spreading of blood onto the filter paper. Hence, accurate quantitative data can only be obtained if the size of the paper filter extracted contains a fixed blood volume. We describe for the first time a microfluidic-based sampling procedure to enable accurate blood volume collection on commercially available DBS cards. The system allows the collection of a controlled volume of blood (e.g., 5 or 10 μL) within several seconds. Reproducibility of the sampling volume was examined in vivo on capillary blood by quantifying caffeine and paraxanthine on 5 different extracted DBS spots at two different time points and in vitro with a test compound, Mavoglurant, on 10 different spots at two Hct levels. Entire spots were extracted. In addition, the accuracy and precision (n = 3) data for the Mavoglurant quantitation in blood with Hct levels between 26% and 62% were evaluated. The interspot precision data were below 9.0%, which was equivalent to that of a manually spotted volume with a pipet. No Hct effect was observed in the quantitative results obtained for Hct levels from 26% to 62%. These data indicate that our microfluidic-based sampling procedure is accurate and precise and that the analysis of Mavoglurant is not affected by the Hct values. This provides a simple procedure for DBS sampling with a fixed volume of capillary blood, which could eliminate the recurrent Hct issue linked to DBS sample analysis.

Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics.

Cardiovascular risk assessment might be improved with the addition of emerging, new tests derived from atherosclerosis imaging, laboratory tests or functional tests. This article reviews relative risk, odds ratios, receiver-operating curves, posttest risk calculations based on likelihood ratios, the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination. This serves to determine whether a new test has an added clinical value on top of conventional risk testing and how this can be verified statistically. Two clinically meaningful examples serve to illustrate novel approaches. This work serves as a review and basic work for the development of new guidelines on cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account emerging tests, to be proposed by members of the 'Taskforce on Vascular Risk Prediction' under the auspices of the Working Group 'Swiss Atherosclerosis' of the Swiss Society of Cardiology in the future.

A Study of the Reliability of the ASTM C-666 Freeze-Thaw Test, MLR-72-01 and R-252, 1972

The Iowa State Highway Commission purchased a Conrad automatic freeze and thaw machine and placed it in operation during October 1961. There were a few problems, but considering, the many electrical and mechanical devices used in the automatic system it has always functioned quite well. Rapid freezing and thawing of 4"x4"xl8" concrete beams has been conducted primarily in accordance with ASTM C-29l (now ASTM C-666 procedure B) at the rate of one beam per day. Over 4000 beams have been tested since 1961, with determination of the resulting durability factors. Various methods of curing were used and a standard 90 day moist cure was selected. This cure seemed to yield durability factors that correlated very well with ratings of coarse aggregates based on service records. Some concrete beams had been made using the same coarse aggregate and the durability factors compared relatively well with previous tests. Durability factors seemed to yield reasonable results until large variations in durability factors were noted from beams of identical concrete mix proportions in research projects R-234 and R-247. This then presents the question "How reliable is the durability as determined by ASTM C-666?" This question became increasingly more important when a specification requiring a minimum durability factor for P.C. concrete made from coarse aggregates was incorporated into the 1972 Standard Specification for coarse aggregates for concrete.

Residual antimalarial concentrations before treatment in patients with malaria from Cambodia: indication of drug pressure.

BACKGROUND: The Thai-Cambodian border has been known as the origin of antimalarial drug resistance for the past 30 years. There is a highly diverse market for antimalarials in this area, and improved knowledge of drug pressure would be useful to target interventions aimed at reducing inappropriate drug use. METHODS: Baseline samples from 125 patients with falciparum malaria recruited for 2 in vivo studies (in Preah Vihear and Pursat provinces) were analyzed for the presence of 14 antimalarials in a single run, by means of a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry assay. RESULTS: Half of the patients had residual drug concentrations above the lower limit of calibration for at least 1 antimalarial at admission. Among the drugs detected were the currently used first-line drugs mefloquine (25% and 35% of patients) and piperaquine (15% of patients); the first-line drug against vivax malaria, chloroquine (25% and 41% of patients); and the former first-line drug, quinine (5% and 34% patients). CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate that there is high drug pressure and that many people still seek treatment in the private and informal sector, where appropriate treatment is not guaranteed. Promotion of comprehensive behavioral change, communication, community-based mobilization, and advocacy are vital to contain the emergence and spread of parasite resistance against new antimalarials.

Soil Tracking Paint Test, MLR-89-13, 1989

A new paint testing device was built to determine the resistance of paints to darkening due to road grime being tracked onto them. The device consists of a tire rotating on a sample drum. Soil was applied to the tire and then tracked onto paint samples which were attached to the drum. A colorimeter was used to measure the lightness of the paints after being tracked. Lightness is measured from 0 (absolute black) to 100 (absolute white). Four experiments were run to determine the optimum time length to track a sample, the reproducibility, the effects of different soils, and the maximum acceptable level for darkening of a paint. The following conclusions were reached: 1) the optimum tracking time was 10 minutes; 2) the reproducibility had a standard deviation of 1.5 lightness units; 3) different soils did not have a large effect on the amount of darkening on the paints; 4) a maximum acceptable darkness could not be established based on the limited amount of data; and 5) a correlation exists between the paints which were darkening in the field and the paints which were turning the darkest on the tracking wheel.

Performance Based Specifications, TR-403, 1998

The goal in highway construction and operation has shifted from method based specifications to specifications relating desired performance attributes to materials, mix designs, and construction methods. Shifting from method specifications to performance based specifications can work as an incentive or disincentive for the contractor to improve performance or extend pavement life. This literature search was directed at a review of existing portland cement concrete performance specification development, and the criteria that can effectively measure pavement performance. The criteria identified in the literature include concrete strength, slab thickness, air content, initial smoothness, water-cement ratio, unit weight, and slump. A description of each criterion, along with the advantages, disadvantages, and test methods for each are identified. Also included are the results from a survey that was sent out to various state, federal, and trade agencies. The responses indicated that 53% currently use or are developing a performance based specification program. Of the 47% of agencies that do not use a performance based specification program, over 34% indicated that they would consider a similar program. The most commonly measured characteristics include thickness, strength, smoothness, and air content. Lastly recommendations and conclusions are made regarding other factors that affect pavement performance and a proposed second phase of the research is suggested. The research team suggests that a regional expert task group be formed to identify performance levels and criteria. The results of that effort will guide the research team in the development of new or revised specifications.

Melanin-based colorations signal strategies to cope with poor and rich environments

One hypothesis for the maintenance of genetic variation states that alternative genotypes are adapted to different environmental conditions (i.e., genotype-by-environment interaction GxE) that vary in space and time. Although GxE has been demonstrated for morphological traits, little evidence has been given whether these GxE are associated with traits used as signal in mate choice. In three wild bird species, we investigated whether the degree of melanin-based coloration, a heritable trait, covaries with nestling growth rate in rich and poor environments. Variation in the degree of reddish-brown phaeomelanism is pronounced in the barn owl (Tyto alba) and tawny owl (Strix aluco), and variation in black eumelanism in the barn owl and Alpine swift (Apus melba). Melanin-based coloration has been shown to be a criterion in mate choice in the barn owl. We cross-fostered hatchlings to test whether nestlings sired by parents displaying melanin-based colorations to different extent exhibit alternative growth trajectories when raised by foster parents in poor (experimentally enlarged broods) and rich (experimentally reduced broods) environments. With respect to phaeomelanism, barn owl and tawny owl offspring sired by redder parents grew more rapidly in body mass only in experimentally reduced broods. With respect to eumelanism, Alpine swift offspring of darker fathers grew their wings more rapidly only in experimentally enlarged broods, a difference that was not detected in reduced broods. These interactions between parental melanism and offspring growth rate indicate that individuals display substantial plasticity in response to the rearing environment which is associated with the degree of melanism: at least with respect to nestling growth, phaeomelanic and eumelanic individuals are best adapted to rich and poor environments, respectively. It now remains to be investigated why eumelanism and phaeomelanism have a different signaling function and what the lifelong consequences of these melanism-dependent allocation strategies are. This is important to fully appraise the role played by environmental heterogeneity in maintaining variation in the degree of melanin-based coloration.

Melanin-based coloration in juvenile kestrels (Falco tinnunculus) covaries with anti-predatory personality traits

Recent studies have shown that melanin-based coloration is associated with the ability to cope with stressful environments, potentially explaining why coloration covaries with anti-predator behaviours, boldness and docility. To investigate whether these relationships are consistent across species, we performed a study in the European kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). Similar to our results found previously in the barn owl (Tyto alba), nestling kestrels displaying a larger sub-terminal black tail band stayed on their back longer (tonic immobility test) and breathed at a lower rate than individuals with a smaller black band when handled. However, in contrast to barn owls, nestling kestrels with a larger black tail band were more aggressive and more agitated. Our results strengthen the hypothesis that melanin coloration is related to stress response and in turn to the reaction to predators, a very important personality trait (i.e. boldness).

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.

Concrete Pavement Mixture Design and Analysis (MDA): Evaluation of Foam Drainage Test to Measure Air Void Stability in Concrete

The stability of air bubbles in fresh concrete can have a profound influence of the potential durability of the system, because excessive losses during placement and consolidation can compromise the ability of the mixture to resist freezing and thawing. The stability of air void systems developed by some air entraining admixtures (AEAs) could be affected by the presence of some polycarboxylate-based water reducing admixtures (WRAs). The foam drainage test provides a means of measuring the potential stability of air bubbles in a paste. A barrier to acceptance of the test was that there was little investigation of the correlation with field performance. The work reported here was a limited exercise seeking to observe the stability of a range of currently available AEA/WRA combinations in the foam drainage test; then, to take the best and the worst and observe their stabilities on concrete mixtures in the lab. Based on the data collected, the foam drainage test appears to identify stable combinations of AEA and WRA.

Development of Non-Petroleum Based Binders for Use in Flexible Pavements, TR-594, 2010

Most bituminous adhesives or binders that are used for pavement materials are derived primarily from fossil fuels. With petroleum oil reserves becoming depleted and the drive to establish a bio-based economy, there is a push to produce binders from alternative sources, particularly from biorenewable resources. However, until now, no research has studied the applicability of utilizing bio-oils as a bitumen replacement (100% replacement) in the pavement industry. The main objective of this research was to test various properties of bio-oils in order to determine the applicability of using bio-oils as binders in the pavement industry. The overall conclusions about the applicability of using bio-oils as bio-binders in the pavement industry can be summarized as follows: 1. Bio-oils cannot be used as bio-binders/pavement materials without any heat pre-treatment/upgrading procedure. 2. Current testing standards and specifications, especially Superpave procedures, should be modified to comply with the properties of bio-binders. 3. The temperature range of the viscous behavior for bio-oils may be lower than that of bitumen binders by about 30°–40° C. 4. The rheological properties of the unmodified bio-binders vary in comparison to bitumen binders, but the rheological properties of these modified bio-binders change significantly upon adding polymer modifiers. 5. The high-temperature performance grade for the developed bio-binders may not vary significantly from that of the bitumen binders, but the low-temperature performance grade may vary significantly

Human epidermal cultures screened for residual murine feeder cells-No contaminants found

Rationale: Human keratinocytes used for transplants are cultivated on a feeder layer which may be composed of autologous human fibroblasts or 3T3 murine fibroblasts. Using the latter method spares 15 additional days of preparation. In this study we investigate the potential presence of residual murine feeder cell contaminants in epidermal cultures prepared for transplantation. Methods: Monolayers of cultured 3T3-J2 murine fibroblasts were treated with 4 μg/mL of mitomycin C (MMC) for 2 h and used to track cell survival kinetics. Using similar 3T3 cells, human keratinocyte cultures were grown following a modified protocol based on the method described by Rheinwald and Green. Cell sheets were mechanically detached and rinsed 4 times following the same procedure used for transplant preparation. The elimination of 3T3 cells during culture was visually tracked using phase contrast microscopy. Epidermal cultures were then dissociated to produce cell suspensions and analyzed by flow cytometry using a murine-specific antibody, CD90, conjugated to a fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC) marker. Dead cells were identified using 7-amino-actinomysin D (7-AAD) which binds to DNA in permeabilized cells. Results: 3T3 cells treated with MMC display clear morphological signs of apoptosis, disappearing completely in 9-10 days following kinetics similar to 30 Gy gamma irradiated 3T3 cells. Histological analysis of cultured epidermal sheets revealed homogenous keratinocytic tissue with no 3T3 cells. MMC treated and untreated 3T3 cells displayed strong CD90 expression. Cell suspensions obtained from epidermal cultures were, however, negative for that marker. Conclusion: Results obtained demonstrate the absence of contaminating murine 3T3 feeder cells in human keratinocyte cultures. These findings highlight our success in developing cultured human epidermal autografts.