Forecasting models of retail rents

The authors model retail rents in the United Kingdom with use of vector-autoregressive and time-series models. Two retail rent series are used, compiled by LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker, and the emphasis is on forecasting. The results suggest that the use of the vector-autoregression and time-series models in this paper can pick up important features of the data that are useful for forecasting purposes. The relative forecasting performance of the models appears to be subject to the length of the forecast time-horizon. The results also show that the variables which were appropriate for inclusion in the vector-autoregression systems differ between the two rent series, suggesting that the structure of optimal models for predicting retail rents could be specific to the rent index used. Ex ante forecasts from our time-series suggest that both LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker real retail rents will exhibit an annual growth rate above their long-term mean.

Concessionary nature of public-private partnerships in Russia and Kazakhstan: a critical review

This article provides a critical overview of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Russia and Kazakhstan and examines the rationale underpinning such partnerships. The analysis discusses the reasons why governments in Russia and Kazakhstan focus principally on concessions as a form of PPP and goes on to provide a critical assessment of the key approaches and situational factors relating to concessions in these two countries. The article finds that external globalization impulses pressed Russia and Kazakhstan to align their policies and institutions with western orthodoxy and perceived international best practice. An ever-increasing emphasis on use of PPPs has been a key feature of this alignment. However, the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan have increasingly resorted to concessions as progress with the development and implementation of Western style PPP models has stalled. This article concludes that the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan have demonstrated an overly optimistic approach to PPP and as a result may have substantially understated their overall concessional risks and costs. Features of Russian and Kazakhstani PPP arrangements such as ambiguity in output specification and extensive reliance on government subsidies, combined with lack of expertise of private partners, may significantly decrease concession benefits.

On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

An experiment on energy-saving competition with socially responsible consumers: opening the black box

We present results from experimental price-setting oligopolies in which green firms undertake different levels of energy-saving investments motivated by public subsidies and demand-side advantages. We find that consumers reveal higher willingness to pay for greener sellers’ products. This observation in conjunction to the fact that greener sellers set higher prices is compatible with the use and interpretation of energy-saving behaviour as a differentiation strategy. However, sellers do not exploit the resulting advantage through sufficiently high price-cost margins, because they seem trapped into “run to stay still” competition. Regarding the use of public subsidies to energy-saving sellers we uncover an undesirable crowding-out effect of consumers’ intrinsic tendency to support green manufacturers. Namely, consumers may be less willing to support a green seller whose energy-saving strategy yields a direct financial benefit. Finally, we disentangle two alternative motivations for consumer’s attractions to pro-social firms; first, the self-interested recognition of the firm’s contribution to the public and private welfare and, second, the need to compensate a firm for the cost entailed in each pro-social action. Our results show the prevalence of the former over the latter.

Seafood safety and quality: an analysis of the supply chain in the Sultanate of Oman

The globalization of trade in fish has created many challenges for the developing world specifically with regard to food safety and quality. International organisations have established a good basis for standards in international trade. Whilst these requirements are frequently embraced by the major importers (such as Japan, the EU and the USA), they often impose additional safety requirements and regularly identify batches which fail to meet their strict standards. Creating an effective national seafood control system which meets both the internal national needs as well the requirements for the export market can be challenging. Many countries adopt a dual system where seafood products for the major export markets are subject to tight control whilst the majority of the products (whether for the local market or for more regional trade) are less tightly controlled. With regional liberalization also occurring, deciding on appropriate controls is complex. In the Sultanate of Oman, fisheries production is one of the countries' chief sources of economic revenue after oil production and is a major source of the national food supply. In this paper the structure of the fish supply chain has been analysed and highlighted the different routes operating for the different markets. Although much of the fish are consumed within Oman, there is a major export trade to the local regional markets. Much smaller quantities meet the more stringent standards imposed by the major importing countries and exports to these are limited. The paper has considered the development of the Omani fish control system including the key legislative documents and the administrative structures that have been developed. Establishing modern controls which satisfy the demands of the major importers is possible but places additional costs on businesses. Enhanced controls such as HACCP and other management standards are required but can be difficult to justify when alternative markets do not specify these. These enhanced controls do however provide additional consumer protection and can bring benefits to local consumers. The Omani government is attempting to upgrade the system of controls and has made tremendous progress toward the implementation of HACCP and introducing enhanced management systems into its industrial sector. The existence of strengthened legislative and government support, including subsidies, has encouraged some businesses to implement HACCP. The current control systems have been reviewed and a SWOT analysis approach used to identify key factors for their future development. The study shows that seafood products in the supply chain are often exposed to lengthy handling and distribution process before reaching the consumers, a typical issue faced by many developing countries. As seafood products are often perishable, they safety is compromised if not adequately controlled. The enforcement of current food safety laws in the Sultanate of Oman is shared across various government agencies. Consequently, there is a need to harmonize all regulatory requirements, enhancing the domestic food protection and to continue to work towards a fully risk-based approach in order to compete successfully in the global market.

Determinants of satisfaction amongst tenants of UK Offices

Purpose – Corporate Occupiers require offices and services which meet their business needs, whilst landlords must attract and retain occupiers in order to maximise occupancy and rental income. The purpose of this research is to help landlords and corporate occupiers understand each other better, in order to achieve a mutually beneficial relationship. Design/methodology/approach - This paper analyses interviews with 1334 office tenants in the UK, conducted over an 11-year period, to investigate determinants of occupier satisfaction, loyalty and advocacy. Structural equation modelling and regressions are performed using respondents’ ratings of satisfaction with many aspects of occupancy as explanatory variables. The dependent variables include satisfaction with property management, value for money, overall occupier satisfaction, lease renewal intentions and occupiers’ willingness to recommend their landlord. Findings - The aspects with most impact on occupiers’ satisfaction are the office building itself, its location and amenities, and also communication with their property manager, a belief that their business needs are understood and the property manager’s responsiveness to occupiers’ requests. Occupiers’ loyalty depends mainly upon feeling that their rent and service charges provide value for money, an amicable leasing process, the professionalism of their property manager and the Corporate Social Responsibility of the Landlord. ‘Empathy’ is crucial to occupiers’ willingness to recommend their landlord, and clear documentation and efficient legal process improve occupiers’ perception of receiving ‘Value for Money’. Research Limitations - The sample is skewed towards occupiers of prime office buildings in the UK, owned by landlords who care sufficiently about their tenants to commission studies into occupier satisfaction. Practical implications - This research should help to improve the landlord – tenant relationship, benefitting the businesses that rent property and helping building managers understand where to focus their efforts to achieve maximum effect on occupier satisfaction, loyalty and advocacy. Originality/value - There has been little academic research into the determinants of satisfaction of occupiers of UK commercial property. This large-scale study enables the most influential factors to be identified and prioritised.

Simulating the impact on health of internalising the cost of carbon in food prices combined with a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages

Rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) have implications for health and up to 30 % of emissions globally are thought to arise from agriculture. Synergies exist between diets low in GHGEs and health however some foods have the opposite relationship, such as sugar production being a relatively low source of GHGEs. In order to address this and to further characterise a healthy sustainable diet, we model the effect on UK non-communicable disease mortality and GHGEs of internalising the social cost of carbon into the price of food alongside a 20 % tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). Developing previously published work, we simulate four tax scenarios: (A) a GHGEs tax of £2.86/tonne of CO2 equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product on all products with emissions greater than the mean across all food groups (0.36 kgCO2e/100 g); (B) scenario A but with subsidies on foods with emissions lower than 0.36 kgCO2e/100 g such that the effect is revenue neutral; (C) scenario A but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs; (D) scenario B but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs. An almost ideal demand system is used to estimate price elasticities and a comparative risk assessment model is used to estimate changes to non-communicable disease mortality. We estimate that scenario A would lead to 300 deaths delayed or averted, 18,900 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.0 billion tax revenue; scenario B, 90 deaths delayed or averted and 17,100 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs; scenario C, 1,200 deaths delayed or averted, 18,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.4 billion revenue; and scenario D, 2,000 deaths delayed or averted and 16,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs. Deaths averted are mainly due to increased fibre and reduced fat consumption; a SSB tax reduces SSB and sugar consumption. Incorporating the social cost of carbon into the price of food has the potential to improve health, reduce GHGEs, and raise revenue. The simple addition of a tax on SSBs can mitigate negative health consequences arising from sugar being low in GHGEs. Further conflicts remain, including increased consumption of unhealthy foods such as cakes and nutrients such as salt.

The role of subsidy in ensuring the sustainability of small-scale anaerobic digesters in Odisha, India

Small-scale anaerobic digester installation has been a development objective of the Indian government to provide rural households clean fuel. Anaerobic digester installation is heavily subsidised. Depending on caste, the rate of subsidy offered for the smallest system available (1m3) varies between 32.35% and 41.18% of the total installation price. Yet, there are gaps in knowledge regarding the usefulness of such subsidies from a sustainability perspective. A cost-benefit analysis was conducted to evaluate the circumstances required for digester sustainability. The analysis used household data collected from 115 cattle owning households in Odisha, India to evaluate profitability at three levels of subsidy (none, General caste subsidy, and Schedule Caste/Schedule Tribe subsidy). Additional analyses considered the effect of; taking a loan, replacing electric lighting with biogas lighting, and the wealth level of the household. The results indicated that access to subsidy improved profitability. Yet, profitability could be achieved without the use of subsidy. The level of benefit accrued by households was similar independent of wealth. However, the provision of subsidy was essential for ensuring profitability for those households required to take a loan to meet the expense of installation. Such findings highlight the importance of subsidy as a means of including the poor.

Reducing defects through organizational learning within a Housing Association environment

Housing Associations (HAs) contribute circa 20% of the UK’s housing supply. HAs are however under increasing pressure as a result of funding cuts and rent reductions. Due to the increased pressure, a number of processes are currently being reviewed by HAs, especially how they manage and learn from defects. Learning from defects is considered a useful approach to achieving defect reduction within the UK housebuilding industry. This paper contributes to our understanding of how HAs learn from defects by undertaking an initial round table discussion with key HA stakeholders as part of an ongoing collaborative research project with the National House Building Council (NHBC) to better understand how house builders and HAs learn from defects to reduce their prevalence. The initial discussion shows that defect information runs through a number of groups, both internal and external of a HA during both the defects management process and organizational learning (OL) process. Furthermore, HAs are reliant on capturing and recording defect data as the foundation for the OL process. During the OL process defect data analysis is the primary enabler to recognizing a need for a change to organizational routines. When a need for change has been recognized, new options are typically pursued to design out defects via updates to a HAs Employer’s Requirements. Proposed solutions are selected by a review board and committed to organizational routine. After implementing a change, both structured and unstructured feedback is sought to establish the change’s success. The findings from the HA discussion demonstrates that OL can achieve defect reduction within the house building sector in the UK. The paper concludes by outlining a potential ‘learning from defects model’ for the housebuilding industry as well as describing future work.

Railway promotion in Victorian Britain: engineering triumph or waste of capital?

A key issue in UK railway history is whether the railway system was an efficient response to the traffic requirements of the economy. The UK railway system was constructed entirely by private enterprise with minimal state subsidies. This chapter considers whether the railway system was 'over-built' because the government ignored the advice of the Railway Committee of the Board of Trade. The chapter suggests that the system was over-built by about 35 per cent. The causes of this over-building are investigated and are found to be mainly social and political failures arising from distrust between MPs and civil servants and public pressure on local MPs to ensure that their constituencies were well served by railways.

Miljöinformation för barn

Ett projektarbete i samarbete Hold Norge Rent, Norsk Resirk och Skiskolenes bransjeførbund i syfte att skapa enkel, intressant och lättförståelig miljöinformation för barn som är på semester i de Norskafjällen. Information bestående av en 12-sidig målarbok med miljövännerna Truls, Trude, Älgen Egiloch Haren Harald tillsammans med ett antal hjälpsamma lämmlar. Tillsammans lär de sig hur man sorterar sopor. I tillägg finns en frågesport med elva frågor om sopsortering, en samlingsplatsskylt och ett diplom. Alla illustrationer är gjorda efter samma manér, detta för att ge hela konceptet ett enhetligt intryck. Fördjupningen handlar om pedagogiska illustrationer för barn. Focus har lagts på barns bildförståelse och hur de tolkar och uppfattar illustrationer.

"Att gå med det i huvudet"-vägen från text till föreställning. : En scenografs arbetsprocess

Jag har försökt att sammanställa dels en enskild scenografs; Calle von Gegerfelts arbetsprocess i successiva steg, för att se hur denne arbetar fram en scenografi, dels har jag i en tabell försökt sammanställa flera scenografers arbetsprocesser för att se om det finns steg som är lika, och som gäller för flera scenografer. I resultatet av dessa sammanställningar har jag kunnat se hur von Gegerfelt steg för steg arbetar fram sin scenografi ända fram till teaterhändelsen. Det har framkommit att han har en lång process med rent tankearbete där omedvetna processer är tydliga och hur dessa successivt övergår till mer konkret arbete med händerna, för att till sist lämna över själva byggandet av scenografin och sömnaden av kläderna till andra. Vissa av dessa steg har han gemensamt med andra scenografer, men dessa har beskrivit de stegen med andra ord och på annat sätt, men man kan se att de hör ihop.

Lärares syn på elevers grupparbete som en del i skolutveckling

Syftet med detta examensarbete är att belysa på vilket eller vilka sätt lärare i gymnasieskolan förknippar elevers grupparbete med skolutveckling. Vilka pedagogiska tankar ligger bakom lärares användande av grupparbete som arbetsmetod, hur ser de på att träna elever i grupparbete och hur ser de på förhållandet mellan grupparbete och skolutveckling? Undersökningen är av kvalitativ karaktär där metoden för insamling av data består av enskilda intervjuer med sju gymnasielärare som arbetar på både yrkesinriktade och studieförberedande program. Resultatet visar att lärarna som arbetar på rent yrkesinriktade program framförallt ser elevers grupparbete som en förberedelse för deras framtida yrkesliv, medan lärare på studieförberedande program tenderar att tala mer om vilken nytta grupparbete har för eleverna i skolsituationen. Vid en analys av hur lärarna ser på att träna elever i grupparbete ser man att vissa av lärarna är mer konkreta i sitt resonemang kring om och hur de arbetar med att träna eleverna i grupparbete, medan vissa är mer abstrakta i sitt resonemang. Resultatet visar slutligen att lärarna har relativt olika syn på vad skolutveckling är samt att det är inte någon självklarhet att de direkt kopplar ihop elevers grupparbete med skolutveckling.

Mastering : Hur påverkas den subjektiva musikuppfattningen av mastering?

Examensarbetet undersöker hur mastering påverkar den subjektiva musikuppfattningen. Detta har undersökts med hjälp av ett lyssningstest där testdeltagare i två grupper, ”vana lyssnare” och ”ovana lyssnare”, lyssnat till tre versioner av tre olika produktioner i olika genrer. De tre versionerna är en professionell, en semiprofessionell samt en omastradversion. Testdeltagarna har sedan fått betygsätta produktionen ur ett rent ljudkvalitetsmässigt perspektiv samt motivera varför de betygsatt som de gjort.Resultatet tyder på att musikuppfattningen påverkas beroende på om produktionen är mastrad eller ej för såväl ”vana lyssnare” som ”ovana lyssnare”. Resultatet tyder även på att musikuppfattningen påverkas av hur, och av vem, en produktion är mastrad.Examensarbetet behandlar även ”vana” och ”ovana lyssnares” syn på kvalitet när det gällermusik. Resultatet visar att det skiljer sig inte bara mellan de två grupperna utan äveninbördes. Ytterligare resultat tyder på att båda grupperna har lika uppfattning om vadljudteknisk kvalitet är.

Filmljudets funktioner i krigsfilm : En audio-visuell analys av Apocalypse Now och Saving Private Ryan

I denna uppsats har filmljudet i krigsfilmerna Apocalypse Now och Saving Private Ryan undersökts. Detta har gjorts för att försöka bidra med ökad förståelse för filmljudets användningsområde och funktioner, främst för filmerna i fråga, men även för krigsfilm rent generellt. Filmljud i denna kontext omfattar allt det ljud som finns i film, men utesluter dock all ickediegetisk musik. Båda filmerna har undersökts genom en audio-visuell analys. En sådan analys görs genom att detaljgranska båda filmernas ljud- och bildinnehåll var för sig, för att slutligen undersöka samma filmsekvens som helhet då ljudet och bilden satts ihop igen. Den audio-visuella analysmetod som nyttjats i uppsatsen är Michel Chions metod, Masking. De 30 minuter film som analyserades placerades sedan i olika filmljudzoner, där respektive filmljudzons ljudinnehåll bland annat visade vilka främsta huvudfunktioner somfilmljudet hade i dessa filmer. Dessa funktioner är till för att bibehålla åskådarens fokus och intresse, att skapa närhet till rollkaraktärerna, samt att tillföra en hög känsla av realism och närvaro. Intentionerna med filmljudet verkade vara att flytta åskådaren in i filmens verklighet, att låta åskådaren bli ett med filmen. Att återspegla denna känsla av realism, närvaro, fokus samt intresse, visade sig också vara de intentioner som funnits redan i de båda filmernas förproduktionsstadier. Detta bevisar att de lyckats åstadkomma det de eftersträvat. Men om filmljudet använts på samma sätt eller innehar samma funktioner i krigsfilm rent genrellt går inte att säga.I have for this bachelor’s thesis examined the movie sound of the classic warfare movies Apocalypse Now and Saving Private Ryan. This is an attempt to contribute to a more profound comprehension of the appliance and importance of movie sound. In this context movie sound implies all kinds of sounds within the movies, accept from non-diegetic music. These two movies have been examined by an audio-visual analysis. It's done by auditing the sound and picture content separately, and then combined to audit the same sequence as a whole. Michel Chion, which is the founder of this analysis, calls this method Masking. The sound in this 30 minute sequence was then divided into different zones, where every zone represented a certain main function. These functions are provided to create a stronger connection to the characters, sustain the viewers interest and bring a sense of realism and presence. It seems though the intention with the movies sound is to bring the viewers to the scene in hand, and let it become their reality. To mirror this sense of realism, presence, focus and interest, proves to be the intention from an early stage of the production. This bachelor’s thesis demonstrates a success in their endeavours. Although it can’t confirm whether the movie sound have been utilized in the same manner or if they posess the same functions to warefare movies in general.