Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Climatology of the Iberia coastal low-level wind jet: weather research forecasting model high-resolution results

Coastal low-level jets (CLLJ) are a low-tropospheric wind feature driven by the pressure gradient produced by a sharp contrast between high temperatures over land and lower temperatures over the sea. This contrast between the cold ocean and the warm land in the summer is intensified by the impact of the coastal parallel winds on the ocean generating upwelling currents, sharpening the temperature gradient close to the coast and giving rise to strong baroclinic structures at the coast. During summertime, the Iberian Peninsula is often under the effect of the Azores High and of a thermal low pressure system inland, leading to a seasonal wind, in the west coast, called the Nortada (northerly wind). This study presents a regional climatology of the CLLJ off the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, based on a 9km resolution downscaling dataset, produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, forced by 19 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2007). The simulation results show that the jet hourly frequency of occurrence in the summer is above 30% and decreases to about 10% during spring and autumn. The monthly frequencies of occurrence can reach higher values, around 40% in summer months, and reveal large inter-annual variability in all three seasons. In the summer, at a daily base, the CLLJ is present in almost 70% of the days. The CLLJ wind direction is mostly from north-northeasterly and occurs more persistently in three areas where the interaction of the jet flow with local capes and headlands is more pronounced. The coastal jets in this area occur at heights between 300 and 400 m, and its speed has a mean around 15 m/s, reaching maximum speeds of 25 m/s.

Speech by Mr. Micheál Martin TD – Meeting The Challenges Of Cultural Diversity In The Irish Healthcare Sector

It gives me great pleasure to accept the invitation to address this conference on “Meeting the Challenges of Cultural Diversity in the Irish Healthcare Sector” which is being organised by the Irish Health Services Management Institute in partnership with the National Consultative Committee on Racism and Interculturalism. The conference provides an important opportunity to develop our knowledge and understanding of the issues surrounding cultural diversity in the health sector from the twin perspectives of patients and staff. Cultural diversity has over recent years become an increasingly visible aspect of Irish society bringing with it both opportunities and challenges. It holds out great possibilities for the enrichment of all who live in Ireland but it also challenges us to adapt creatively to the changes required to realise this potential and to ensure that the experience is a positive one for all concerned but particularly for those in the minority ethnic groups. In the last number of years in particular, the focus has tended to be on people coming to this country either as refugees, asylum seekers or economic migrants. Government figures estimate that as many as 340,000 immigrants are expected in the next six years. However ethnic and cultural diversity are not new phenomena in Ireland. Travellers have a long history as an indigenous minority group in Ireland with a strong culture and identity of their own. The changing experience and dynamics of their relationship with the wider society and its institutions over time can, I think, provide some valuable lessons for us as we seek to address the more numerous and complex issues of cultural diversity which have arisen for us in the last decade. Turning more specifically to the health sector which is the focus of this conference, culture and identity have particular relevance to health service policy and provision in that The first requirement is that we in the health service acknowledge cultural diversity and the differences in behaviours and in the less obvious areas of values and beliefs that this often implies. Only by acknowledging these differences in a respectful way and informing ourselves of them can we address them. Our equality legislation – The Employment Equality Act, 1998 and the Equal Status Act, 2000 – prohibits discrimination on nine grounds including race and membership of the Traveller community. The Equal Status Act prohibits discrimination on an individual basis in relation to the nine grounds while for groups it provides for the promotion of equality of opportunity. The Act applies to the provision of services including health services. I will speak first about cultural diversity in relation to the patient. In this respect it is worth mentioning that the recognition of cultural diversity and appropriate responses to it were issues which were strongly emphasised in the public consultation process which we held earlier this year in the context of developing National Anti-Poverty targets for the health sector and also our new national health strategy. Awareness and sensitivity training for staff is a key requirement for adapting to a culturally diverse patient population. The focus of this training should be the development of the knowledge and skills to provide services sensitive to cultural diversity. Such training can often be most effectively delivered in partnership with members of the minority groups themselves. I am aware that the Traveller community, for example, is involved in in-service training for health care workers. I am also aware that the National Consultative Committee on Racism and Interculturalism has been involved in training with the Eastern Regional Health Authority. We need to have more such initiatives. A step beyond the sensitivity training for existing staff is the training of members of the minority communities themselves as workers in our health services. Again the Traveller community has set an example in this area with its Primary Health Care Project for Travellers. The Primary Health Care for Travellers Project was established in 1994 as a joint partnership initiative with the Eastern Health Board and Pavee Point, with ongoing technical assistance being provided from the Department of Community Health and General Practice, Trinity College, Dublin. This project was the first of its kind in the country and has facilitated The project included a training course which concentrated on skills development, capacity building and the empowerment of Travellers. This confidence and skill allowed the Community Health Workers to go out and conduct a baseline survey to identify and articulate Travellers’ health needs. This was the first time that Travellers were involved in this process; in the past their needs were assumed. The results of the survey were fed back to the community and they prioritised their needs and suggested changes to the health services which would facilitate their access and utilisation. Ongoing monitoring and data collection demonstrates a big improvement in levels of satisfaction and uptake and ulitisation of health services by Travellers in the pilot area. This Primary Health Care for Travellers initiative is being replicated in three other areas around the country and funding has been approved for a further 9 new projects. This pilot project was the recipient of a WHO 50th anniversary commemorative award in 1998. The project is developing as a model of good practice which could inspire further initiatives of this type for other minority groups. Access to information has been identified in numerous consultative processes as a key factor in enabling people to take a proactive approach to managing their own health and that of their families and in facilitating their access to health services. Honouring our commitment to equity in these areas requires that information is provided in culturally appropriate formats. The National Health Promotion Strategy 2000-2005, for example, recognises that there exists within our society many groups with different requirements which need to be identified and accommodated when planning and implementing health promotion interventions. These groups include Travellers, refugees and asylum seekers, people with intellectual, physical or sensory disability and the gay and lesbian community. The Strategy acknowledges the challenge involved in being sensitive to the potential differences in patterns of poor health among these different groups. The Strategic aim is to promote the physical, mental and social well-being of individuals from these groups. The objective of the Strategy on these issues are: While our long term aim may be to mainstream responses so that our health services is truly multicultural, we must recognise the need at this point in time for very specific focused responses particularly for groups with poor health status such as Travellers and also for refugees and asylum seekers. In the case of refugees and asylum seekers examples of targeted services are screening for communicable diseases – offered on a voluntary basis – and psychological support services for those who have suffered trauma before coming here. The two approaches of targeting and mainstreaming are not mutually exclusive. A combination of both is required at this point in time but the balance between them must be kept under constant review in the light of changing needs. A major requirement if we are to meet the challenge of cultural diversity is an appropriate data and research base. I think it is important that we build up our information and research data base in partnership with the minority groups themselves. We must establish what the health needs of diverse groups are; we must monitor uptake of services and how well we are responding to needs and we must monitor outcomes and health status. We must also examine the impact of the policies in other sectors on the health of minority groups. The National Health Information Strategy, currently being developed, and the recently published National Strategy for Health Research – Making Knowledge Work for Health provide important frameworks within which we can improve our data and research base. A culturally diverse health sector workforce – challenges and opportunities The Irish health service can benefit greatly from successful international recruitment. There has been a strong non-national representation amongst the medical profession for more than 30 years. More recently there have been significant increases in other categories of health service workers from overseas. The Department recognises the enormous value that overseas recruitment brings over a wide range of services and supports the development of effective and appropriate recruitment strategies in partnership with health service employers. These changes have made cultural diversity an important issue for all health service organisations. Diversity in the workplace is primarily about creating a culture that seeks, respects, values and harnesses difference. This includes all the differences that when added together make each person unique. So instead of the focus being on particular groups, diversity is about all of us. Change is not about helping “them” to join “us” but about critically looking at “us” and rooting out all aspects of our culture that inappropriately exclude people and prevent us from being inclusive in the way we relate to employees, potential employees and clients of the health service. International recruitment benefits consumers, Irish employees and the overseas personnel alike. Regardless of whether they are employed by the health service, members of minority groups will be clients of our service and consequently we need to be flexible in order to accommodate different cultural needs. For staff, we recognise that coming from other cultures can be a difficult transition. Consequently health service employers have made strong efforts to assist them during this period. Many organisations provide induction courses, religious facilities (such as prayer rooms) and help in finding suitable accommodation. The Health Service Employers Agency (HSEA) is developing an equal opportunities/diversity strategy and action plans as well as training programmes to support their implementation, to ensure that all health service employment policies and practices promote the equality/diversity agenda to continue the development of a culturally diverse health service. The management of this new environment is extremely important for the health service as it offers an opportunity to go beyond set legal requirements and to strive for an acceptance and nurturing of cultural differences. Workforce cultural diversity affords us the opportunity to learn from the working practices and perspectives of others by allowing personnel to present their ideas and experience through teamwork, partnership structures and other appropriate fora, leading to further improvement in the services we provide. It is important to ensure that both personnel units and line managers communicate directly with their staff and demonstrate by their actions that they intend to create an inclusive work place which doesn´t demand that minority staff fit. Contented, valued employees who feel that there is a place for them in the organisation will deliver a high quality health service. Your conference here today has two laudable aims – to heighten awareness and assist health care staff to work effectively with their colleagues from different cultural backgrounds and to gain a greater understanding of the diverse needs of patients from minority ethnic backgrounds. There is a synergy in these aims and in the tasks to which they give rise in the management of our health service. The creative adaptations required for one have the potential to feed into the other. I would like to commend both organisations which are hosting this conference for their initiative in making this event happen, particularly at this time – Racism in the Workplace Week. I look forward very much to hearing the outcome of your deliberations. Thank you.

A Survey of Health Service Utilisation and Health Needs of a Population of Patient with HIV/ AIDS

This study described the demographic and medical characteristics of a population of patients with HIV/AIDS attending the department of Genito-Urinary Medicine (GUM) at a major Dublin hospital. The study population's utilisation of statutory and voluntary medical and social services at primary care level, satisfaction with services received and perceived need for services examined. The information obtained was used to make recommendations concerning the provision of care to patients with HIV/AIDS. The study was carried out between February and November 1994. Data was collected from a consecutive sample of eighty inpatients using n interviewer-administered questionnaire which contained both closed and open questions. The first forty patients interviewed were reviewed six months following the initial interview to document changes in physical condition and uptake of medical services over that time period. Data for the second part of the study was obtained by review of the patients' medical case notes and interview with the individual hospital medical social worker assigned to each patient. Over ninety percent of respondents were from the Greater Dublin Area. Almost three quarters were intravenous drug users (IVDUs), and the majority of these patients came from south inner city Dublin. The methodology was biased towards sampling patients with advanced disease and 73% had CDC Stage 4 disease. Twenty percent required some assistance with the activities of daily living when first interviewed. Most were reliant on informal carers. Social and physical dependency increased substantially over the six month period of the follow-up study of forty patients. Financial difficulties were identified as a particular area of need. Only ten percent of those interviewed were in current employment and over 80% were dependent on statutory payments. There is a need for greater co-ordination between the providers of services to patients HIV/AIDS and an improved system of data collection regarding patients' uptake of services and unmet needs is required to assist in future service planning.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

Effectiveness of a nurse-led case management home care model in Primary Health Care. A quasi-experimental, controlled, multi-centre study

Background Demand for home care services has increased considerably, along with the growing complexity of cases and variability among resources and providers. Designing services that guarantee co-ordination and integration for providers and levels of care is of paramount importance. The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of a new case-management based, home care delivery model which has been implemented in Andalusia (Spain). Methods Quasi-experimental, controlled, non-randomised, multi-centre study on the population receiving home care services comparing the outcomes of the new model, which included nurse-led case management, versus the conventional one. Primary endpoints: functional status, satisfaction and use of healthcare resources. Secondary endpoints: recruitment and caregiver burden, mortality, institutionalisation, quality of life and family function. Analyses were performed at base-line, and at two, six and twelve months. A bivariate analysis was conducted with the Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney's U, and the chi squared test. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests were performed to compare survival and institutionalisation. A multivariate analysis was performed to pinpoint factors that impact on improvement of functional ability. Results Base-line differences in functional capacity – significantly lower in the intervention group (RR: 1.52 95%CI: 1.05–2.21; p = 0.0016) – disappeared at six months (RR: 1.31 95%CI: 0.87–1.98; p = 0.178). At six months, caregiver burden showed a slight reduction in the intervention group, whereas it increased notably in the control group (base-line Zarit Test: 57.06 95%CI: 54.77–59.34 vs. 60.50 95%CI: 53.63–67.37; p = 0.264), (Zarit Test at six months: 53.79 95%CI: 49.67–57.92 vs. 66.26 95%CI: 60.66–71.86 p = 0.002). Patients in the intervention group received more physiotherapy (7.92 CI95%: 5.22–10.62 vs. 3.24 95%CI: 1.37–5.310; p = 0.0001) and, on average, required fewer home care visits (9.40 95%CI: 7.89–10.92 vs.11.30 95%CI: 9.10–14.54). No differences were found in terms of frequency of visits to A&E or hospital re-admissions. Furthermore, patients in the control group perceived higher levels of satisfaction (16.88; 95%CI: 16.32–17.43; range: 0–21, vs. 14.65 95%CI: 13.61–15.68; p = 0,001). Conclusion A home care service model that includes nurse-led case management streamlines access to healthcare services and resources, while impacting positively on patients' functional ability and caregiver burden, with increased levels of satisfaction.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Multimodal Investment Analysis Methodology, Phase One: The Conceptual Model, 1998

The purpose of this project is to develop an investment analysis model that integrates the capabilities of four types of analysis for use in evaluating interurban transportation system improvements. The project will also explore the use of new data warehousing and mining techniques to design the types of databases required for supporting such a comprehensive transportation model. The project consists of four phases. The first phase, which is documented in this report, involves development of the conceptual foundation for the model. Prior research is reviewed in Chapter 1, which is composed of three major sections providing demand modeling background information for passenger transportation, transportation of freight (manufactured products and supplies), and transportation of natural resources and agricultural commodities. Material from the literature on geographic information systems makes up Chapter 2. Database models for the national and regional economies and for the transportation and logistics network are conceptualized in Chapter 3. Demand forecasting of transportation service requirements is introduced in Chapter 4, with separate sections for passenger transportation, freight transportation, and transportation of natural resources and commodities. Characteristics and capacities of the different modes, modal choices, and route assignments are discussed in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a general discussion of the economic impacts and feedback of multimodal transportation activities and facilities.

A model for organ donation in switzerland, the latin organ donation programme (lodp); an ongoing successful regional initiative

Background: The 1st Swiss federal Transplant Law was finally enforced in July 2007 with the obligation to promote quality and efficiency in transplant procedures. The LODP was created to develop organ and tissue donation in the Latin area of Switzerland covering seventeen hospitals (29% of the population).Methods: Each of the partner hospitals designated at least one Local Donor Coordinator (LDC), member of the Intensive Care team, trained in the organ donation (OD) process. The principal tasks of the LDC's are the introduction of OD procedures, organisation of educational sessions for hospital staff and execution of the Donor Action programme. The LODP has been operational since July 2009, when training of the LDC's was completed, the web-site and hotline activated and the attendance of Transplant Procurement Coordinators (TPC) during the OD process organised.Results: National and regional guidelines are accessible on the LODP website. The Hospital Attitude Survey obtained a 57% return rate. Many of the staff requested training and sessions are now running in the partner hospitals. The Medical Record Revue revealed an increase in the conversion rate from 3.5% to 4.5%. During the 5 years before creation of LODP the average annual number of utilised donors was 31, an increase of 70%, has since been observed.Conclusion: This clear progression in utilised donors in the past two years can be attributed to the fact that partner hospitals benefit from the various support given (hotline, website and from TPC's). Despite the increase in OD within the LODP the Swiss donation rates remain low, on average 11.9 donors per million population. This successful model should be applied throughout Switzerland, but the crucial point is to obtain financial support.

A Demographic Model to Evaluate Population Declines in the Endangered Streaked Horned Lark

The Streaked Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris strigata) is listed as endangered by the State of Washington, USA and by Canada under the Species at Risk Act and is also classified as a federal candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act in the USA. A substantial portion of Streaked Horned Lark habitat has been lost or degraded, and range contraction has occurred in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We estimate the vital rates (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival) and population growth rate (λ) for Streaked Horned Larks breeding in Washington, USA and conduct a Life-Stage Simulation Analysis (LSA) to evaluate which vital rate has the greatest influence on λ. We simulated changes in the three vital rates to examine how much they would need to be adjusted either independently or in concert to achieve a stable Streaked Horned Lark population (λ = 1). We also evaluated which fecundity component (the number of fledglings per egg laid or renesting interval) had the greatest impact on λ. The estimate of population growth suggests that Streaked Horned Larks in Washington are declining rapidly (λ = 0.62 ± 0.10) and that local breeding sites are not sustainable without immigration. The LSA results indicate that adult survival had the greatest influence on λ, followed by juvenile survival and fecundity. However, increases in vital rates led to λ = 1 only when adult survival was raised from 0.47 to 0.85, juvenile survival from 0.17 to 0.58, and fecundity from 0.91 to 3.09. Increases in breeding success and decreases in the renesting interval influenced λ similarly; however, λ did not reach 1 even when breeding success was raised to 100% or renesting intervals were reduced to 1 day. Only when all three vital rates were increased simultaneously did λ approach 1 without requiring highly unrealistic increases in each vital rate. We conclude that conservation activities need to target all or multiple vital rates to be successful. The baseline data presented here and subsequent efforts to manage Streaked Horned Larks will provide valuable information for management of other declining Horned Lark subspecies and other grassland songbirds across North America.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

Botucatu, Brazil: A Regional Community Palliative Care Model

The Pain Management and Palliative Care Service in the Department of Anesthesia at Botucatu Medical School, UNESP is a pioneer in Brazil. Based on an interdisciplinary team that provides specialized inpatient, ambulatory outpatient, and home care to patients in Botucatu and the surrounding region, the service is also able to provide extensive educational opportunities in pain management and palliative care for medical students, anesthesia residents, practicing anesthetists, and nurses. © 2007 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee.

Business development service centres in Italy. An empirical analysis of three regional experiences: Emilia Romagna, Lombardia y Veneto

Includes bibliography

Towards a demand model for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean: a regional study of passenger ferry services

In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean were studied. While maritime studies in the Caribbean have focused on infrastructural and operational systems for intensifying trade and movement of goods, there is little information on the movement of persons within the region and its potential to encourage further integration and sustainable development. Data to inform studies and policies in this area are particularly difficult to source. For this study, an unbalanced data set for the 2000-2014 period in 15 destinations with a focus on departing ferry passengers was compiled. Further a demand equation for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean using panel data methods was estimated. The results showed that this demand is related to the real fare of the service, international economic activity and the number of passengers arriving in the country by air.

Weather forecasting for Eastern Amazon with OLAM model

O modelo OLAM tem como característica a vantagem de representar simultaneamente os fenômenos meteorológicos de escala global e regional através de um esquema de refinamento de grades. Durante o projeto REMAM, o modelo foi aplicado para alguns estudos de caso com objetivo de avaliar o desempenho do modelo na previsão numérica de tempo para a região leste da Amazônia. Estudos de caso foram feitos para os doze meses do ano de 2009. Os resultados do modelo para estes casos foram comparados com dados observados na região de estudo. A análise dos dados de precipitação mostrou que o modelo consegue representar a distribuição média da precipitação acumulada e os aspectos da sazonalidade da ocorrência dos eventos, mas não consegue prever individualmente a acumulação de precipitação local. No entanto, avaliação individual de alguns casos mostrou que o modelo OLAM conseguiu representar dinamicamente e prever, com alguns dias de antecedência, o desenvolvimento de fenômenos meteorológicos costeiros como as linhas de instabilidade, que são um dos mais importantes sistemas precipitantes da Amazônia.