793 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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Broccoli is a vegetable crop of increasing importance in Australia, particularly in south-east Queensland and farmers need to maintain a regular supply of good quality broccoli to meet the expanding market. A predictive model of ontogeny, incorporating climatic data including frost risk, would enable farmers to predict harvest maturity date and select appropriate cultivar – sowing date combinations. To develop procedures for predicting ontogeny, yield and quality, field studies using three cultivars, ‘Fiesta’, ‘Greenbelt’ and ‘Marathon’, were sown on eight dates from 11 March to 22 May 1997, and grown under natural and extended (16 h) photoperiods at the University of Queensland, Gatton Campus. Cultivar, rather than the environment, mainly determined head quality attributes of head shape and branching angle. Yield and quality were not influenced by photoperiod. A better understanding of genotype and environmental interactions will help farmers optimise yield and quality, by matching cultivars with time of sowing. The estimated base and optimum temperature for broccoli development were 0°C and 20 °C, respectively, and were consistent across cultivars, but thermal time requirements for phenological intervals were cultivar specific. Differences in thermal time requirement from floral initiation to harvest maturity between cultivars were small and of little importance, but differences in thermal time requirement from emergence to floral initiation were large. Sensitivity to photoperiod and solar radiation was low in the three cultivars used. This research has produced models to assist broccoli farmers in crop scheduling and cultivar selection in south-east Queensland.

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We have investigated the role of videoconferencing in allied health service provision to high-care clients in rural residential facilities. Videoconferencing equipment was set up at a rural aged-care facility and a metropolitan allied health centre; ISDN transmission at 384 kbit/s was used to link the equipment. Twelve residents were assessed by both videoconference and face to face across five allied health disciplines (a total of 120 assessments). User satisfaction was measured using questionnaires and focus groups. Face-to-face assessment took significantly longer than videoconferencing assessment. However, the mean satisfaction ratings for face-to-face assessments were higher than for videoconferencing and the majority of the staff preferred the face-to-face format. Videoconferencing was particularly useful for consultations and the initial stages of the assessment process. A number of issues relating to the videoconferencing equipment, to the environment in which assessments were performed and to the clients themselves need to be addressed in order for this form of service delivery to be effective.

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Domestic violence is everywhere and nowhere. No statutory organization or health service has work with either perpetrators or survivors of domestic violence (usually women and children) as the primary focus of their service, yet all agencies will have very significant numbers among their clients/service users. It is therefore crucial that the policy framework is developed both within and between agencies to address the need, and scope, of intervention in this area and particularly the impact on children. Currently, significant steps have been taken by some agencies in the UK to address this previously neglected issue, though the developments are patchy. This paper draws on a UK-wide research study which mapped the extent and range of service provision for families where there is domestic violence and also developed a framework of good practice indicators for ‘Mapped the extent and range of service provision for families where there is domestic violence and also developed a framework of good practice indicators’ provision in this area. This article examines one of the indicators of good practice arising from the research—that of policy development—within social service departments and within the multi-agency arena.

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In this article, the authors analyze participants' accounts of why they took part in a repeat-interview study exploring newly diagnosed patients' perceptions of diabetes service provision in Lothian, Scotland. The study involved three semistructured in-depth interviews with each patient (N = 40), which spanned a year. The authors provide a thematic discursive analysis of responses to the question, Can I ask you what made you decide to part in the study and why you've stayed involved over the past year? The main themes are (a) recruitment within health contexts ("the nurse said it would help"), (b) altruism ("if it can help somebody"), (c) qualitative research being seen as inherently innocuous ("nothing to lose"), and (d) therapeutic aspects of interviewing ("getting it off my chest"). The analysis contributes both to the qualitative literature about generic research participation and to a germinal literature exploring qualitative health research participation. © 2006 Sage Publications.

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The fast spread of the Internet and the increasing demands of the service are leading to radical changes in the structure and management of underlying telecommunications systems. Active networks (ANs) offer the ability to program the network on a per-router, per-user, or even per-packet basis, thus promise greater flexibility than current networks. To make this new network paradigm of active network being widely accepted, a lot of issues need to be solved. Management of the active network is one of the challenges. This thesis investigates an adaptive management solution based on genetic algorithm (GA). The solution uses a distributed GA inspired by bacterium on the active nodes within an active network, to provide adaptive management for the network, especially the service provision problems associated with future network. The thesis also reviews the concepts, theories and technologies associated with the management solution. By exploring the implementation of these active nodes in hardware, this thesis demonstrates the possibility of implementing a GA based adaptive management in the real network that being used today. The concurrent programming language, Handel-C, is used for the description of the design system and a re-configurable computer platform based on a FPGA process element is used for the hardware implementation. The experiment results demonstrate both the availability of the hardware implementation and the efficiency of the proposed management solution.

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Age Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of registerable blindness with a high medical and societal cost burden. Much of the research examining experiences of living with AMD has been conducted independently with small sample sizes and has failed to impact on practice. Meta-synthesis of qualitative research can improve the understanding of the experience of living with AMD by drawing together findings of qualitative studies. This article presents a systematic review and meta-synthesis of qualitative studies investigating the experience of AMD (literature searched up to April 2012; published studies identified range from 1996 to 2009). The review highlights themes relating to: functional limitations, adaptation and independence; feelings about the future with vision impairment; interaction with the health service; social engagement; disclosure; and the emotional impacts of living with AMD. Attention to the experience of living with AMD can help us to better understand the needs of patients. This meta-synthesis aimed to bring together the findings of qualitative research studies and highlights important areas for consideration when caring for patients with AMD. Our findings suggest that a holistic approach to service provision and support for AMD is needed which takes into account individuals' needs and experiences when coping with and adjusting to living with AMD. This support should aim to reduce stigma, increase social engagement, and develop the psychological resources of patients with AMD.

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Introduction – The commissioning of services has been a core responsibility of English Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) since 2002. Primary care organisations (PCOs) in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have also increased their commissioning activities but with, arguably, less fervour than their English counterparts. The commissioning function of English PCTs has been reinforced by the introduction of new contractual frameworks across primary care – for medical services, dentistry and pharmacy. The new pharmaceutical services contract for England and Wales introduced an “enhanced” category of services, the provision of which is dependent on the commissioning decisions of local PCTs. As the NHS, most pertinently in England, continues its transformation from a provider to a commissioner of healthcare, the ability of pharmacy to compete effectively for funding is likely to become increasingly important. Method - After piloting, in August 2006 a self-completion postal questionnaire was sent to a random sample of practising community pharmacists, stratified for country and sex, within Great Britain (n=1998), with a follow-up to non-responders 4 weeks later. Data were analysed using SPSS (v12.0). A final response rate of 51% (n=1023/1998) was achieved. Within the section of the questionnaire relating to service provision, respondents were asked “do you believe that pharmacy will be able to compete effectively with other healthcare providers for access to additional funding to develop services that address a public health need identified by your local Primary Care Organisation (PCO), e.g. PCT/LHB etc.?”. Answers were recorded on a three-point scale; pharmacy “will”, “may”, or “will not” be able to compete effectively for funding. Results - The attitudes of pharmacists showed variation depending on the type of pharmacy they worked in (supermarket, multiple (outlets (n)=200), large chain (200>n>20), small chain (20=n>5), or independent (n=5)) (?2 test with p=0.001). Over a third of survey pharmacists working in small chains and independents (37% (n=21/57) and 33% (n=113/341) respectively) believed that pharmacy would not be able to compete effectively for funding compared to 23% (n=15/65) for supermarket pharmacists, 22% (n=21/97) for pharmacists employed by large chains and just 18% (n=62/353) for pharmacists employed most regularly in multiples. Furthermore, attitudes also varied between the countries of residence of respondents (?2 test with p<0.05). 27% (n=242/893) of pharmacists resident in England and Wales believed that pharmacy would not be able to compete compared to 16% (n=18/116) of pharmacists resident in Scotland. Conclusions – It would appear that community pharmacists believe that the larger pharmacy chains and supermarkets will occupy an advantageous position in terms of attracting finance to develop services. This could have notable implications for service provision across the sector. If corporate pharmacy chains were to monopolise commissioning monies then the proportion of funding available to independents will be diminished; arguably further hastening their demise, as well as stifling the professional development of pharmacists employed within the independent sector. These findings, when combined with the variation observed between UK pharmacists operating under different contractual frameworks, may be a reflection of the divergent policy in the different administrations with developments in England, including the new pharmacy contract, reflecting a market-based approach with Scotland taking a near opposite stance with service integration and a commitment to new public health. However, it should be acknowledged that the questionnaire did not allow for detection of ambiguities in, or misunderstandings of, the survey question and this should be considered as a limitation of the research.

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This paper investigates and implicates how organisations renovate their service operations and improve business productivity in the context of wireless networks and mobile technologies. Drawing from two case studies conducted in healthcare institutions situated in southwest USA, the findings suggested that wireless networks and relevant technologies evidently enhanced business productivity and fundamentally changed service provision and, in turn, shaped or reshaped organisational images in the community. The implications reinforced the notions that technology could provide foundation for an organisation’s economic growth and that organisations’ business and IT strategies need to seriously consider aligning with this technological trend. For researchers, how organisations in different industries manoeuvre their ways around these technologies might provide interesting venues for future investigation.

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Tourette’s syndrome is a tic disorder that is often associated with behavioural symptoms. Diagnostic criteria are based on the presence of both motor and vocal tics; because of its varied presentations, the syndrome has the potential to be misdiagnosed. Prevalence is higher than commonly assumed; coprolalia is relatively rare (10-30%) and not required for diagnosis. The syndrome can cause serious distress and compromise health related quality of life. The main management strategies include psychoeducation, behavioural techniques, and drugs. Service provision is patchy even in developed countries and patients of all ages often “fall through the net” between neurology and psychiatry.

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Over the course of the last twenty years there has been a growing academic interest in performance management, particularly in respect of the evolution of new techniques and their resulting impact. One important theoretical development has been the emergence of multidimensional performance measurement models that are potentially applicable within the public sector. Empirically, academic researchers are increasingly supporting the use of such models as a way of improving public sector management and the effectiveness of service provision (Mayston, 1985; Pollitt, 1986; Bates and Brignall, 1993; and Massey, 1999). This paper seeks to add to the literature by using both theoretical and empirical evidence to argue that CPA, the external inspection tool used by the Audit Commission to evaluate local authority performance management, is a version of the Balanced Scorecard which, when adapted for internal use, may have beneficial effects. After demonstrating the parallels between the CPA framework and Kaplan and Norton's public sector Balanced Scorecard (BSC), we use a case study of the BSC based performance management system in Hertfordshire County Council to demonstrate the empirical linkages between a local scorecard and CPA. We conclude that CPA is based upon the BSC and has the potential to serve as a springboard for the evolution of local authority performance management systems.

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In recent decades, natural disasters have caused extensive losses and damages to human psychological wellbeing, economy, and society. It has been argued that cultural factors such as social values, traditions, and attachment to a location influence communities facing and responding to natural disasters. However, the issue of culture in disaster mental health seems to have received limited attention in policy and practice. This review highlights the importance of cultural background in the assessment of vulnerability to the psychological impacts of disasters, disaster preparedness, and provision of disaster mental health services. In particular, this paper suggests the importance of cultural competence in the planning and delivery of effective disaster mental health services. In order to address the varying circumstances of people with different cultural backgrounds, disaster mental health services must be developed in a culturally sensitive manner. Development of culturally competent disaster mental health services requires significant changes in policy making, administration, and direct service provision

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In the paper some important notions and features of context-aware and adaptable service provision have been discussed. An approach has been described which can be used to develop architectures with the mentioned features. The abstract architecture AC3 and its application for implementing an eLearning environment have been described as well.

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In this paper, I analyze the role of longevity risk in Hungary in the public pension system and the life annuity segment of the life insurance market, which are two primary financial sectors of relevance to this special type of actuarial risk, using state-of-the- art econometric methodology. To this end, I present an overview and the mathematical background of several important current mortality forecasting techniques from the Lee–Carter model up to unifying paradigm of the Age–Period–Cohort family of models. After presenting the findings of a case study on the public pension system based on the paper of Bajk ́o, Maknics, T ́oth and V ́ekas, I conclude that longevity risk jeopardizes the sustainability of the Hungarian public pension system in the long run. In another case study, I present an analysis of the role of longevity risk in the pre- mium of private pension annuities, a relevant topic due to recent changes in a law on Hungarian voluntary pension funds, following an earlier analysis of M ́ajer and Kov ́acs. Based on the criterion on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, I find that the Cairns–Blake– Dowd mortality forecasting model aimed specifically at modeling old-age mortality outperforms the Lee–Carter model applied by M ́ajer and Kov ́acs . Based on numerical results, I finally conclude that the role of longevity risk in the Hungarian life annuity mar- ket has increased significantly in the past decade and is likely to further increase in the future.

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Since the 1990s, scholars have paid special attention to public management’s role in theory and research under the assumption that effective management is one of the primary means for achieving superior performance. To some extent, this was influenced by popular business writings of the 1980s as well as the reinventing literature of the 1990s. A number of case studies but limited quantitative research papers have been published showing that management matters in the performance of public organizations. ^ My study examined whether or not management capacity increased organizational performance using quantitative techniques. The specific research problem analyzed was whether significant differences existed between high and average performing public housing agencies on select criteria identified in the Government Performance Project (GPP) management capacity model, and whether this model could predict outcome performance measures in a statistically significant manner, while controlling for exogenous influences. My model included two of four GPP management subsystems (human resources and information technology), integration and alignment of subsystems, and an overall managing for results framework. It also included environmental and client control variables that were hypothesized to affect performance independent of management action. ^ Descriptive results of survey responses showed high performing agencies with better scores on most high performance dimensions of individual criteria, suggesting support for the model; however, quantitative analysis found limited statistically significant differences between high and average performers and limited predictive power of the model. My analysis led to the following major conclusions: past performance was the strongest predictor of present performance; high unionization hurt performance; and budget related criterion mattered more for high performance than other model factors. As to the specific research question, management capacity may be necessary but it is not sufficient to increase performance. ^ The research suggested managers may benefit by implementing best practices identified through the GPP model. The usefulness of the model could be improved by adding direct service delivery to the model, which may also improve its predictive power. Finally, there are abundant tested concepts and tools designed to improve system performance that are available for practitioners designed to improve management subsystem support of direct service delivery.^

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The resounding message extracted from the service literature is that employees serve pivotal functions in the overall guest experience. This is of course due to the simultaneous delivery of personalized service provision with resultant consumption of those services. This simultaneous delivery and consumption cycle is at times challenged by a perceived desire to accommodate guest request that may violate, to a greater or lesser degree, an organizational rule. This is important to note because increased interactions with customers enable frontline employees to have a better sense of what customers want from the company as well as from the company itself (Bitner, et al, 1994). With that platform established, then why are some employees willing to break organizational rules and risk disciplinary action to better service a customer? This study examines the employee personality, degree of autonomy, job meaning, and co-worker influence on an employee's decision to break organizational rules. The results of this study indicate that co-worker influence exerted a minimal influence on employee decision to break rules while the presence of societal consciousness exerted a much stronger influence. Women reported that they were less likely to engage in rule divergence, and significant correlations were present when filtered by years in current position, and years in the industry.