878 resultados para Receiver Operating Characteristic
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To evaluate the efficacy of endorectal Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Magnetic Resonance Spetroscopic Imaging (MRSI) combined with total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA) and free prostate-specific antigen (fPSA) in selecting candidates for biopsy. Subjects and Methods: 246 patients with elevated tPSA (median: 7.81 ng/ml) underwent endorectal MRI and MRSI before Transrectal Ultrasound (TRUS) biopsy (10 peripheral + 2 central cores); patients with positive biopsies were treated with radical intention; those with negative biopsies were followed up and underwent MRSI before each additional biopsy if tPSA rose persistently. Mean follow-up: 27.6 months. We compared MRI, MRSI, tPSA, and fPSA with histopathology by sextant and determined the association between the Gleason score and MRI and MRSI. We determined the most accurate combination to detect prostate cancer (PCa) using receiver operating curves; we estimated the odds ratios (OR) and calculated sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Results: No difference in tPSA was found between patients with and without PCa (p = 0.551). In the peripheral zone, the risk of PCa increased with MRSI grade; patients with high-grade MRSI had the greatest risk of PCa over time (OR = 328.6); the model including MRI, MRSI, tPSA, and fPSA was more accurate (Area under Curve: AUC = 95.7%) than MRI alone (AUC = 85.1%) or fPSA alone (AUC = 78.1%), but not than MRSI alone (94.5%). In the transitional zone, the model was less accurate (AUC = 84.4%). The association (p = 0.005) between MRSI and Gleason score was significant in both zones. Conclusions: MRSI is useful in patients with elevated tPSA. High-grade MRSI lesions call for repeated biopsies. Men with negative MRSI may forgo further biopsies because a significantly high Gleason lesion is very unlikely
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hyperglycemia after stroke is associated with larger infarct volume and poorer functional outcome. In an animal stroke model, the association between serum glucose and infarct volume is described by a U-shaped curve with a nadir ≈7 mmol/L. However, a similar curve in human studies was never reported. The objective of the present study is to investigate the association between serum glucose levels and functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: We analyzed 1446 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke. Serum glucose was measured on admission at the emergency department together with multiple other metabolic, clinical, and radiological parameters. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was recorded at 24 hours, and Rankin score was recorded at 3 and 12 months. The association between serum glucose and favorable outcome (Rankin score ≤2) was explored in univariate and multivariate analysis. The model was further analyzed in a robust regression model based on fractional polynomial (-2-2) functions. RESULTS: Serum glucose is independently correlated with functional outcome at 12 months (OR, 1.15; P=0.01). Other predictors of outcome include admission NIHSS score (OR, 1.18; P<0001), age (OR, 1.06; P<0.001), prestroke Rankin score (OR, 20.8; P=0.004), and leukoaraiosis (OR, 2.21; P=0.016). Using these factors in multiple logistic regression analysis, the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve is 0.869. The association between serum glucose and Rankin score at 12 months is described by a J-shaped curve with a nadir of 5 mmol/L. Glucose values between 3.7 and 7.3 mmol/L are associated with favorable outcome. A similar curve was generated for the association of glucose and 24-hour NIHSS score, for which glucose values between 4.0 and 7.2 mmol/L are associated with a NIHSS score <7. Discussion-Both hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia are dangerous in acute ischemic stroke as shown by a J-shaped association between serum glucose and 24-hour and 12-month outcome. Initial serum glucose values between 3.7 and 7.3 mmol/L are associated with favorable outcome.
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This paper addresses primary care physicians, cardiologists, internists, angiologists and doctors desirous of improving vascular risk prediction in primary care. Many cardiovascular risk factors act aggressively on the arterial wall and result in atherosclerosis and atherothrombosis. Cardiovascular prognosis derived from ultrasound imaging is, however, excellent in subjects without formation of intimal thickening or atheromas. Since ultrasound visualises the arterial wall directly, the information derived from the arterial wall may add independent incremental information to the knowledge of risk derived from global risk assessment. This paper provides an overview on plaque imaging for vascular risk prediction in two parts: Part 1: Carotid IMT is frequently used as a surrogate marker for outcome in intervention studies addressing rather large cohorts of subjects. Carotid IMT as a risk prediction tool for the prevention of acute myocardial infarction and stroke has been extensively studied in many patients since 1987, and has yielded incremental hazard ratios for these cardiovascular events independently of established cardiovascular risk factors. However, carotid IMT measurements are not used uniformly and therefore still lack widely accepted standardisation. Hence, at an individual, practicebased level, carotid IMT is not recommended as a risk assessment tool. The total plaque area of the carotid arteries (TPA) is a measure of the global plaque burden within both carotid arteries. It was recently shown in a large Norwegian cohort involving over 6000 subjects that TPA is a very good predictor for future myocardial infarction in women with an area under the curve (AUC) using a receiver operating curves (ROC) value of 0.73 (in men: 0.63). Further, the AUC for risk prediction is high both for vascular death in a vascular prevention clinic group (AUC 0.77) and fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction in a true primary care group (AUC 0.79). Since TPA has acceptable reproducibility, allows calculation of posttest risk and is easily obtained at low cost, this risk assessment tool may come in for more widespread use in the future and also serve as a tool for atherosclerosis tracking and guidance for intensity of preventive therapy. However, more studies with TPA are needed. Part 2: Carotid and femoral plaque formation as detected by ultrasound offers a global view of the extent of atherosclerosis. Several prospective cohort studies have shown that cardiovascular risk prediction is greater for plaques than for carotid IMT. The number of arterial beds affected by significant atheromas may simply be added numerically to derive additional information on the risk of vascular events. A new atherosclerosis burden score (ABS) simply calculates the sum of carotid and femoral plaques encountered during ultrasound scanning. ABS correlates well and independently with the presence of coronary atherosclerosis and stenosis as measured by invasive coronary angiogram. However, the prognostic power of ABS as an independent marker of risk still needs to be elucidated in prospective studies. In summary, the large number of ways to measure atherosclerosis and related changes in human arteries by ultrasound indicates that this technology is not yet sufficiently perfected and needs more standardisation and workup on clearly defined outcome studies before it can be recommended as a practice-based additional risk modifier.
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BACKGROUND: Excessive drinking is a major problem in Western countries. AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) is a 10-item questionnaire developed as a transcultural screening tool to detect excessive alcohol consumption and dependence in primary health care settings. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study is to validate a French version of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). METHODS: We conducted a validation cross-sectional study in three French-speaking areas (Paris, Geneva and Lausanne). We examined psychometric properties of AUDIT as its internal consistency, and its capacity to correctly diagnose alcohol abuse or dependence as defined by DSM-IV and to detect hazardous drinking (defined as alcohol intake >30 g pure ethanol per day for men and >20 g of pure ethanol per day for women). We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and Receiver Operator Characteristic curves. Finally, we compared the ability of AUDIT to accurately detect "alcohol abuse/dependence" with that of CAGE and MAST. RESULTS: 1207 patients presenting to outpatient clinics (Switzerland, n = 580) or general practitioners' (France, n = 627) successively completed CAGE, MAST and AUDIT self-administered questionnaires, and were independently interviewed by a trained addiction specialist. AUDIT showed a good capacity to discriminate dependent patients (with AUDIT > or =13 for males, sensitivity 70.1%, specificity 95.2%, PPV 85.7%, NPV 94.7% and for females sensitivity 94.7%, specificity 98.2%, PPV 100%, NPV 99.8%); and hazardous drinkers (with AUDIT > or =7, for males sensitivity 83.5%, specificity 79.9%, PPV 55.0%, NPV 82.7% and with AUDIT > or =6 for females, sensitivity 81.2%, specificity 93.7%, PPV 64.0%, NPV 72.0%). AUDIT gives better results than MAST and CAGE for detecting "Alcohol abuse/dependence" as showed on the comparative ROC curves. CONCLUSIONS: The AUDIT questionnaire remains a good screening instrument for French-speaking primary care.
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Objective: To assess the effectiveness of obesity markers to detect high (>5%) 10- year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) as estimated using the SCORE function. Methods: Cross-sectional study including 3,047 women and 2,689 men aged 35-75 years (CoLaus study). Body fat percentage was assessed by tetrapolar bioimpedance. CVD risk was assessed using the SCORE risk function and gender and age-specific cut points for body fat were derived. The diagnostic accuracy of each obesity marker was evaluated through receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. Results: Body fat presented a higher correlation with 10-year CVD risk than waist/hip ratio (WHR), waist or BMI: in men, r=0.31, 0.22, 0.19 and 0.12 and for body fat, WHR, waist and BMI, respectively; the corresponding values in women were 0.18, 0.15, 0.11 and 0.05, respectively (all p<0.05). In both genders, body fat showed the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC): in men, the AUC (and 95% confidence interval) were 76.0 (73.8 - 78.2), 67.3 (64.6 - 69.9), 65.8 (63.1 - 68.5) and 60.6 (57.9 - 63.5) for body fat, WHR, waist and BMI, respectively. In women, the corresponding values were 72.3 (69.2 - 75.3), 66.6 (63.1 - 70.2), 64.1 (60.6 - 67.6) and 58.8 (55.2 - 62.4). The use of body fat percentage criterion enabled to capture three times more subjects with high CVD risk than BMI criterion, and almost twice as much as WHR criterion.. Conclusions: Obesity defined by body fat percentage is more accurate to detect high 10-year risk of fatal CVD than obesity markers based on WHR, waist or BMI.
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Status epilepticus (SE) prognosis is related to nonmodifiable factors (age, etiology), but the exact role of drug treatment is unclear. This study was undertaken to address the prognostic role of treatment adherence to guidelines (TAG). We prospectively studied over 26 months a cohort of adults with incident SE (excluding postanoxic). TAG was assessed in terms of drug doses (± 30 % of recommendations) and medication sequence; its prognostic impact on mortality and return to baseline conditions was adjusted for etiology, SE severity [Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS)], and comorbidities. Of 225 patients, 26 (12 %) died and 82 (36 %) were discharged with a new handicap; TAG was observed in 142 (63 %). On univariate analysis, age, etiology, SE severity, and comorbidities were significantly related to outcome, while TAG was associated with neither outcome nor likelihood of SE control. Logistic regression for mortality identified etiology [odds ratio (OR) 18.8, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 4.3-82.8] and SE severity (STESS ≥ 3; OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.2-2.4) as independent predictors, and for lack of return to baseline, again etiology (OR 7.4, 95 % CI 3.9-14.0) and STESS ≥ 3 (OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.4-2.2). Similar results were found for the subgroup of 116 patients with generalized-convulsive SE. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses confirmed that TAG did not improve outcome prediction. This study of a large SE cohort suggests that treatment adherence to recommendations using current medications seems to play a negligible prognostic role (class III), confirming the importance of the biological background. Awaiting further treatment trials, it appears mandatory to apply resources towards identification of new therapeutic approaches.
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BACKGROUND: Workers with persistent disabilities after orthopaedic trauma may need occupational rehabilitation. Despite various risk profiles for non-return-to-work (non-RTW), there is no available predictive model. Moreover, injured workers may have various origins (immigrant workers), which may either affect their return to work or their eligibility for research purposes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model that estimates the likelihood of non-RTW after occupational rehabilitation using predictors which do not rely on the worker's background. METHODS: Prospective cohort study (3177 participants, native (51%) and immigrant workers (49%)) with two samples: a) Development sample with patients from 2004 to 2007 with Full and Reduced Models, b) External validation of the Reduced Model with patients from 2008 to March 2010. We collected patients' data and biopsychosocial complexity with an observer rated interview (INTERMED). Non-RTW was assessed two years after discharge from the rehabilitation. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated with a calibration plot. The model was reduced with random forests. RESULTS: At 2 years, the non-RTW status was known for 2462 patients (77.5% of the total sample). The prevalence of non-RTW was 50%. The full model (36 items) and the reduced model (19 items) had acceptable discrimination performance (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76, respectively) and good calibration. For the validation model, the discrimination performance was acceptable (AUC 0.73; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.77) and calibration was also adequate. CONCLUSIONS: Non-RTW may be predicted with a simple model constructed with variables independent of the patient's education and language fluency. This model is useful for all kinds of trauma in order to adjust for case mix and it is applicable to vulnerable populations like immigrant workers.
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Falls are common in the elderly, and potentially result in injury and disability. Thus, preventing falls as soon as possible in older adults is a public health priority, yet there is no specific marker that is predictive of the first fall onset. We hypothesized that gait features should be the most relevant variables for predicting the first fall. Clinical baseline characteristics (e.g., gender, cognitive function) were assessed in 259 home-dwelling people aged 66 to 75 that had never fallen. Likewise, global kinetic behavior of gait was recorded from 22 variables in 1036 walking tests with an accelerometric gait analysis system. Afterward, monthly telephone monitoring reported the date of the first fall over 24 months. A principal components analysis was used to assess the relationship between gait variables and fall status in four groups: non-fallers, fallers from 0 to 6 months, fallers from 6 to 12 months and fallers from 12 to 24 months. The association of significant principal components (PC) with an increased risk of first fall was then evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC). No effect of clinical confounding variables was shown as a function of groups. An eigenvalue decomposition of the correlation matrix identified a large statistical PC1 (termed "Global kinetics of gait pattern"), which accounted for 36.7% of total variance. Principal component loadings also revealed a PC2 (12.6% of total variance), related to the "Global gait regularity." Subsequent ANOVAs showed that only PC1 discriminated the fall status during the first 6 months, while PC2 discriminated the first fall onset between 6 and 12 months. After one year, any PC was associated with falls. These results were bolstered by the ROC analyses, showing good predictive models of the first fall during the first six months or from 6 to 12 months. Overall, these findings suggest that the performance of a standardized walking test at least once a year is essential for fall prevention.
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PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to compare multidetector CT (MDCT), MRI, and FDG PET/CT imaging for the detection of peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) in ovarian cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifteen women with ovarian cancer and suspected PC underwent MDCT, MRI, and FDG PET/CT, shortly before surgery. Nine abdominopelvic regions were defined according to the peritoneal cancer index. We applied lesion size scores on MDCT and MR and measured FDG PET/CT standard uptake. We blindly read MDCT, MR, and PET/CT before joint review and comparison with histopathology. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was performed. RESULTS: Ten women had PC (67%). Altogether, 135 abdominopelvic sites were compared. Multidetector CT, MRI, and FDG PET/CT had a sensitivity of 96%, 98%, and 95%, and specificity was 92%, 84%, and 96%, respectively. Corresponding receiver operating characteristics area was 0.94, 0.90, and 0.96, respectively, without any significant differences between them (P = 0.12). FDG PET/CT detected supradiaphragmatic disease in 3 women (20%) not seen by MDCT or MRI. CONCLUSIONS: Although MRI had the highest sensitivity and FDG PET/CT had the highest specificity, no significant differences were found between the 3 techniques. Thus, MDCT, as the fastest, most economical, and most widely available modality, is the examination of choice, if a stand-alone technique is required. If inconclusive, PET/CT or MRI may offer additional insights. Whole-body FDG PET/CT may be more accurate for supradiaphragmatic metastatic extension.
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BACKGROUND: After cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), acquired coagulopathy often leads to post-CPB bleeding. Though multifactorial in origin, this coagulopathy is often aggravated by deficient fibrinogen levels. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether laboratory and thrombelastometric testing on CPB can predict plasma fibrinogen immediately after CPB weaning. PATIENTS / METHODS: This prospective study in 110 patients undergoing major cardiovascular surgery at risk of post-CPB bleeding compares fibrinogen level (Clauss method) and function (fibrin-specific thrombelastometry) in order to study the predictability of their course early after termination of CPB. Linear regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics were used to determine correlations and predictive accuracy. RESULTS: Quantitative estimation of post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen from on-CPB fibrinogen was feasible with small bias (+0.19 g/l), but with poor precision and a percentage of error >30%. A clinically useful alternative approach was developed by using on-CPB A10 to predict a Clauss fibrinogen range of interest instead of a discrete level. An on-CPB A10 ≤10 mm identified patients with a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen of ≤1.5 g/l with a sensitivity of 0.99 and a positive predictive value of 0.60; it also identified those without a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen <2.0 g/l with a specificity of 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: When measured on CPB prior to weaning, a FIBTEM A10 ≤10 mm is an early alert for post-CPB fibrinogen levels below or within the substitution range (1.5-2.0 g/l) recommended in case of post-CPB coagulopathic bleeding. This helps to minimize the delay to data-based hemostatic management after weaning from CPB.
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INTRODUCTION: Two important risk factors for abnormal neurodevelopment are preterm birth and neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy. The new revisions of Griffiths Mental Development Scale (Griffiths-II, [1996]) and the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID-II, [1993]) are two of the most frequently used developmental diagnostics tests. The Griffiths-II is divided into five subscales and a global development quotient (QD), and the BSID-II is divided into two scales, the Mental scale (MDI) and the Psychomotor scale (PDI). The main objective of this research was to establish the extent to which developmental diagnoses obtained using the new revisions of these two tests are comparable for a given child. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective study of 18-months-old high-risk children examined with both tests in the follow-up Unit of the Clinic of Neonatology of our tertiary care university Hospital between 2011 and 2012. To determine the concurrent validity of the two tests paired t-tests and Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients were computed. Using the BSID-II as a gold standard, the performance of the Griffiths-II was analyzed with receiver operating curves. RESULTS: 61 patients (80.3% preterm, 14.7% neonatal asphyxia) were examined. For the BSID-II the MDI mean was 96.21 (range 67-133) and the PDI mean was 87.72 (range 49-114). For the Griffiths-II, the QD mean was 96.95 (range 60-124), the locomotors subscale mean was 92.57 (range 49-119). The score of the Griffiths locomotors subscale was significantly higher than the PDI (p<0.001). Between the Griffiths-II QD and the BSID-II MDI no significant difference was found, and the area under the curve was 0.93, showing good validity. All correlations were high and significant with a Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient >0.8. CONCLUSIONS: The meaning of the results for a given child was the same for the two tests. Two scores were interchangeable, the Griffiths-II QD and the BSID-II MDI.
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BACKGROUND: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a genetic disorder characterized by numerous fluid-filled cysts that frequently result in end-stage renal disease. While promising treatment options are in advanced clinical development, early diagnosis and follow-up remain a major challenge. We therefore evaluated the diagnostic value of Fetuin-A as a new biomarker of ADPKD in human urine. RESULTS: We found that renal Fetuin-A levels are upregulated in both Pkd1 and Bicc1 mouse models of ADPKD. Measurement by ELISA revealed that urinary Fetuin-A levels were significantly higher in 66 ADPKD patients (17.5 ± 12.5 μg/mmol creatinine) compared to 17 healthy volunteers (8.5 ± 3.8 μg/mmol creatinine) or 50 control patients with renal diseases of other causes (6.2 ± 2.9 μg/mmol creatinine). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis of urinary Fetuin-A levels for ADPKD rendered an optimum cut-off value of 12.2 μg/mmol creatinine, corresponding to 94% of sensitivity and 60% of specificity (area under the curve 0.74 ; p = 0.0019). Furthermore, urinary Fetuin-A levels in ADPKD patients correlated with the degree of renal insufficiency and showed a significant increase in patients with preserved renal function followed for two years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings establish urinary Fetuin-A as a sensitive biomarker of the progression of ADPKD. Further studies are required to examine the pathogenic mechanisms of elevated renal and urinary Fetuin-A in ADPKD.
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BACKGROUND: Biliary tract cancer is an uncommon cancer with a poor outcome. We assembled data from the National Cancer Research Institute (UK) ABC-02 study and 10 international studies to determine prognostic outcome characteristics for patients with advanced disease. METHODS: Multivariable analyses of the final dataset from the ABC-02 study were carried out. All variables were simultaneously included in a Cox proportional hazards model, and backward elimination was used to produce the final model (using a significance level of 10%), in which the selected variables were associated independently with outcome. This score was validated externally by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis using the independent international dataset. RESULTS: A total of 410 patients were included from the ABC-02 study and 753 from the international dataset. An overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) Cox model was derived from the ABC-02 study. White blood cells, haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, neutrophils, gender, and performance status were considered prognostic for survival (all with P < 0.10). Patients with metastatic disease {hazard ratio (HR) 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.02]} and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) 2 had worse survival [HR 2.24 (95% CI 1.53-3.28)]. In a dataset restricted to patients who received cisplatin and gemcitabine with ECOG PS 0 and 1, only haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, and neutrophils were associated with PFS and OS. ROC analysis suggested the models generated from the ABC-02 study had a limited prognostic value [6-month PFS: area under the curve (AUC) 62% (95% CI 57-68); 1-year OS: AUC 64% (95% CI 58-69)]. CONCLUSION: These data propose a set of prognostic criteria for outcome in advanced biliary tract cancer derived from the ABC-02 study that are validated in an international dataset. Although these findings establish the benchmark for the prognostic evaluation of patients with ABC and confirm the value of longheld clinical observations, the ability of the model to correctly predict prognosis is limited and needs to be improved through identification of additional clinical and molecular markers.
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Aims: This study was carried out to investigate the role of common liver function tests, and the degree of common bile duct dilatation in the differential diagnosis of extrahepatic cholestasis, as well as the occurrence, diagnosis and treatment of iatrogenic bile duct injuries. In bile duct injuries, special attention was paid to gender and severity distribution and long-term results. Patients and methods: All consecutive patients with diagnosed common bile duct stones or malignant strictures in ERCP between August 2000 and November 2003. Common liver function tests were measured in the morning before ERCP on all of these 212 patients, and their common bile duct diameter was measured from ERCP films. Between January 1995 and April 2002, 3736 laparoscopic cholecystectomies were performed and a total of 32 bile duct injuries were diagnosed. All pre-, per-, and postoperative data were collected retrospectively; and the patients were also interviewed by phone. Results: Plasma bilirubin proved to be the best discriminator between CBD stones and malignant strictures (p≤0.001 compared to other liver function tests and degree of common bile duct dilatation). The same effect was seen in Receiver Operating Characteristics curves (AUC 0.867). With a plasma bilirubin cut-off value of 145 μmol/l, four out of five patients could be classified correctly. The degree of common bile duct dilatation proved to be worthless in differential diagnostics. After laparoscopic cholecystectomy the total risk for bile duct injury was 0.86%, including cystic duct leaks. 86% of severe injuries and 88% of injuries requiring operative treatment were diagnosed in females. All the cystic duct leakages and 87% of the strictures were treated endoscopically. Good long-term results were seen in 84% of the whole study population. Conclusions: Plasma bilirubin is the most effective liver function test in differential diagnosis between CBD stones and malignant strictures. The only value of common bile duct dilatation is its ability to verify the presence of extrahepatic cholestasis. Female gender was associated with higher number of iatrogenic bile duct injuries, and in particular, most of the major complications occur in females. Most of the cystic duct leaks and common bile duct strictures can be treated endoscopically. The long-term results in our institution are at an internationally acceptable level.
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Bread is one of the most widely consumed foods. Its impact on human health is currently of special interest for researchers. We aimed to identify biomarkers of bread consumption by applying a nutrimetabolomic approach to a free-living population. An untargeted HPLC q-TOF-MS and multivariate analysis was applied to human urine from 155 subjects stratified by habitual bread consumption in three groups: non-consumers of bread (n = 56), white-bread consumers (n = 48) and whole-grain bread consumers (n = 51). The most differential metabolites (variable importance for projection ≥1.5) included compounds originating from cereal plant phytochemicals such as benzoxazinoids and alkylresorcinol metabolites, and compounds produced by gut microbiota (such as enterolactones, hydroxybenzoic and dihydroferulic acid metabolites). Pyrraline, riboflavin, 3-indolecarboxylic acid glucuronide, 2,8-dihydroxyquinoline glucuronide and N-α-acetylcitrulline were also tentatively identified. In order to combine multiple metabolites in a model to predict bread consumption, a stepwise logistic regression analysis was used. Receiver operating curves were constructed to evaluate the global performance of individual metabolites and their combination. The area under the curve values [AUC (95 % CI)] of combined models ranged from 77.8 % (69.1 86.4 %) to 93.7 % (89.4 98.1 %), whereas the AUC for the metabolites included in the models had weak values when they were evaluated individually: from 58.1 % (46.6 69.7 %) to 78.4 % (69.8 87.1 %). Our study showed that a daily bread intake significantly impacted on the urinary metabolome, despite being examined under uncontrolled free-living conditions. We further concluded that a combination of several biomarkers of exposure is better than a single biomarker for the predictive ability of discriminative analysis.