Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations

Winter storm-track activity over the Northern Hemisphere and its changes in a greenhouse gas scenario (the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B forcing) are computed from an ensemble of 23 single runs from 16 coupled global climate models (CGCMs). All models reproduce the general structures of the observed climatological storm-track pattern under present-day forcing conditions. Ensemble mean changes resulting from anthropogenic forcing include an increase of baroclinic wave activity over the eastern North Atlantic, amounting to 5%–8% by the end of the twenty-first century. Enhanced activity is also found over the Asian continent and over the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands. At high latitudes and over parts of the subtropics, activity is reduced. Variations of the individual models around the ensemble average signal are not small, with a median of the pattern correlation near r = 0.5. There is, however, no evidence for a link between deviations in present-day climatology and deviations with respect to climate change.

Sensitivities of a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm: individual tracks and climatology

Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity is assessed by applying an algorithm for the detection and tracking of synoptic scale cyclones to mean sea level pressure data. The method, originally developed for the Southern Hemisphere, is adapted for application in the Northern Hemisphere winter season. NCEP-Reanalysis data from 1958/59 to 1997/98 are used as input. The sensitivities of the results to particular parameters of the algorithm are discussed for both case studies and from a climatological point of view. Results show that the choice of settings is of major relevance especially for the tracking of smaller scale and fast moving systems. With an appropriate setting the algorithm is capable of automatically tracking different types of cyclones at the same time: Both fast moving and developing systems over the large ocean basins and smaller scale cyclones over the Mediterranean basin can be assessed. The climatology of cyclone variables, e.g., cyclone track density, cyclone counts, intensification rates, propagation speeds and areas of cyclogenesis and -lysis gives detailed information on typical cyclone life cycles for different regions. The lowering of the spatial and temporal resolution of the input data from full resolution T62/06h to T42/12h decreases the cyclone track density and cyclone counts. Reducing the temporal resolution alone contributes to a decline in the number of fast moving systems, which is relevant for the cyclone track density. Lowering spatial resolution alone mainly reduces the number of weak cyclones.

Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks

A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in US landfalling systems. Here we present a tentative study, which examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1° to 0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and sub-tropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. Our results show that except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. We also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, we examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.

Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks

There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference.

Rossby wave propagation tracks in southern hemisphere mean basic flows associated to generalized frosts over southern South America

Based on previous observational studies on cold extreme events over southern South America, some recent studies suggest a possible relationship between Rossby wave propagation remotely triggered and the occurrence of frost. Using the concept of linear theory of Rossby wave propagation, this paper analyzes the propagation of such waves in two different basic states that correspond to austral winters with maximum and minimum generalized frost frequency of occurrence in the Wet Pampa (central-northwest Argentina). In order to determine the wave trajectories, the ray tracing technique is used in this study. Some theoretical discussion about this technique is also presented. The analysis of the basic state, from a theoretical point of view and based on the calculation of ray tracings, corroborates that remotely excited Rossby waves is the mechanism that favors the maximum occurrence of generalized frosts. The basic state in which the waves propagate is what conditions the places where they are excited. The Rossby waves are excited in determined places of the atmosphere, propagating towards South America along the jet streams that act as wave guides, favoring the generation of generalized frosts. In summary, this paper presents an overview of the ray tracing technique and how it can be used to investigate an important synoptic event, such as frost in a specific region, and its relationship with the propagation of large scale planetary waves.

Phytophagous insect fauna tracks host plant responses to exotic grass invasion

The high dependence of herbivorous insects on their host plants implies that plant invaders can affect these insects directly, by not providing a suitable habitat, or indirectly, by altering host plant availability. In this study, we sampled Asteraceae flower heads in cerrado remnants with varying levels of exotic grass invasion to evaluate whether invasive grasses have a direct effect on herbivore richness independent of the current disturbance level and host plant richness. By classifying herbivores according to the degree of host plant specialization, we also investigated whether invasive grasses reduce the uniqueness of the herbivorous assemblages. Herbivorous insect richness showed a unimodal relationship with invasive grass cover that was significantly explained only by way of the variation in host plant richness. The same result was found for polyphagous and oligophagous insects, but monophages showed a significant negative response to the intensity of the grass invasion that was independent of host plant richness. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that the aggregate effect of invasive plants on herbivores tends to mirror the effects of invasive plants on host plants. In addition, exotic plants affect specialist insects differently from generalist insects; thus exotic plants affect not only the size but also the structural profile of herbivorous insect assemblages.

Criação de conhecimento em propriedades rurais no Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil e em Queensland, Austrália

A realidade de mudanças no agronegócios requer novas ferramentas gerenciais dos proprietários rurais e o conhecimento ganha importância como fator gerador de diferencial competitivo. O objetivo desta tese é desenvolver um método dinâmico de análise da criação de conhecimento para o elo da produção no agronegócios no Brasil e na Austrália com base no modelo de Nonaka e Takeuchi (1997). A presente pesquisa caracteriza-se por um estudo descritivo de caráter qualitativo, complementada por dados quantitativos. É realizado um estudo de dois casos, utilizando-se de documentação e observação in loco, questionário, entrevista e focus group. As realidades estudadas localizam-se no Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, e em Queensland, na Austrália. Os dados da pesquisa possibilitaram o desenvolvimento de uma figura representativa do modo como ocorre a criação de conhecimento nas duas realidades. Da figura foi feito um desdobramento e desenvolveu-se um método dinâmico de análise da criação de conhecimento para o elo da produção no agronegócios. Os resultados demonstraram haver significativas similaridades e diferenças entre as realidades, sendo, no Brasil, os produtores rurais inseridos num contexto cooperativo (Cooperativa Tritícola Mista Alto Jacuí – Cotrijal) e, na Austrália, os negócios conduzidos individualmente. Para a ocorrência da criação de conhecimento é necessária a existência de grupos de relacionamento e de certa liderança em nível de propriedade, de comunidades de prática (CoPs) ou da cooperativa. O aspecto cultural e o estilo das relações pareceram exercer forte influência para que as trocas ocorram e para a maior ampliação da atuação das CoPs, as quais podem ser suporte para a criação de conhecimentos.As CoPs não se constituem num processo tecnológico e, sim, num processo social e cognitivo; assim, sua formação nas CoPs não parece depender somente de tecnologia, mas do estabelecimento de relações informais, nas quais as pessoas podem utilizar esses ambientes para definir suas verdades quanto às suas posturas frente aos processos de mudança. A forma de conduzir os negócios pode afetar o modo como se dá a criação de conhecimento, pois, numa propriedade onde as pessoas buscam socializar, questionar e inovar constantemente, evidencia-se haver maior espaço para transformar conhecimento tácito em explícito; assim, pessoas mais abertas ao novo e ao questionamento de suas práticas demonstram apresentar maiores possibilidades para criar um campo de interação para que o conhecimento seja criado. O estudo mostrou que há um grande percurso entre o produtor rural ter conhecimento e a capacidade de torná-lo uma atitude que possibilite trazer bons resultados nos negócios.

Image processing algorithm for the identification of Martian dust devil tracks in MOC and HiRISE images

This paper presents a method for automatic identification of dust devils tracks in MOC NA and HiRISE images of Mars. The method is based on Mathematical Morphology and is able to successfully process those images despite their difference in spatial resolution or size of the scene. A dataset of 200 images from the surface of Mars representative of the diversity of those track features was considered for developing, testing and evaluating our method, confronting the outputs with reference images made manually. Analysis showed a mean accuracy of about 92%. We also give some examples on how to use the results to get information about dust devils, namelly mean width, main direction of movement and coverage per scene. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermochronology of the South American platform in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, through apatite fission tracks

The fission-track method (FTM) in apatite was applied to 45 samples collected in the Serra da Mantiqueira (Mantiqueira mountain range), the Serra do Mar (Mar mountain range), regions next to these mountain ranges and the coastal region between Ubatuba and Santos in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, to study the thermochronology of the South American Platform in southeast Brazil and its influence on Santos and Campos basins. The data presented in this work complement the previously presented data on the same region (Tello Saenz et al., 2003. J. S. Am. Earth Sci. 15, 765-774) with 31 new samples analyzed. The weighted mean of the corrected ages from high Mantiqueira (around 1000 m), (121 +/- 6) Ma, coincides with the South Atlantic opening. The fact that its thermal history starts at a relatively low temperature (similar to 80 degrees C) suggests that the age of similar to 120 Ma would be the formation age of Serra da Mantiqueira due to a rapid pulse, in which tracks had no time to be retained at the closure temperature, that is similar to 120 degrees C. The Serra do Mar presents a more complicated thermal history, with several reactivations indicated by the changes in the slope of its cooling curve. The thermal histories obtained in the regions next to these mountain ranges are compatible with the results mentioned above. The Santos Basin has unconformities that agree with changes in the slope thermal histories of the studied region. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projected length annealing of etched Sm-152 ion tracks in apatite

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Anisotropy of track revelation in epidote: Results of a step etching experiment with Kr-86 ion tracks

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Active-site properties of Phrixotrix railroad worm green and red bioluminescence-eliciting luciferases

The luciferases of the railroad worm Phrixotrix (Coleoptera: Phengodidae) are the only beetle luciferases that naturally produce true red bioluminescence. Previously, we cloned the green- (PxGR) and red-emitting (PxRE) luciferases of railroad worms Phrixotrix viviani and P. hirtus[OLE1]. These luciferases were expressed and purified, and their active-site properties were determined. The red-emitting PxRE luciferase displays flash-like kinetics, whereas PxGR luciferase displays slow-type kinetics. The substrate affinities and catalytic efficiency of PxRE luciferase are also higher than those of PxGR luciferase. Fluorescence studies with 8-anilino-1-naphthalene sulfonic acid and 6-p-toluidino-2-naphthalene sulfonic acid showed that the PxRE luciferase luciferin-binding site is more polar than that of PxGR luciferase, and it is sensitive to guanidine. Alutagenesis and modelling studies suggest that several invariant residues in the putative luciferin-binding site of PxRE luciferase cannot interact with excited oxyluciferin. These results suggest that one portion of the luciferin-binding site of the red-emitting luciferase is tighter than that of PxGR luciferase, whereas the other portion could be more open and polar.

Molecular insights on the evolution of the lateral and head lantern luciferases and bioluminescence colors in Mastinocerini railroad-worms (Coleoptera: Phengodidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)