Geographic distribution of plant pathogens in response to climate change

Geographic distributions of pathogens are the outcome of dynamic processes involving host availability, susceptibility and abundance, suitability of climate conditions, and historical contingency including evolutionary change. Distributions have changed fast and are changing fast in response to many factors, including climatic change. The response time of arable agriculture is intrinsically fast, but perennial crops and especially forests are unlikely to adapt easily. Predictions of many of the variables needed to predict changes in pathogen range are still rather uncertain, and their effects will be profoundly modified by changes elsewhere in the agricultural system, including both economic changes affecting growing systems and hosts and evolutionary changes in pathogens and hosts. Tools to predict changes based on environmental correlations depend on good primary data, which is often absent, and need to be checked against the historical record, which remains very poor for almost all pathogens. We argue that at present the uncertainty in predictions of change is so great that the important adaptive response is to monitor changes and to retain the capacity to innovate, both by access to economic capital with reasonably long-term rates of return and by retaining wide scientific expertise, including currently less fashionable specialisms.

Quantifying the response of the ORAC aerosol optical depth retrieval for MSG SEVIRI to aerosol model assumptions

We test the response of the Oxford-RAL Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) retrieval algorithm for MSG SEVIRI to changes in the aerosol properties used in the dust aerosol model, using data from the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) flight campaign in August 2006. We find that using the observed DODO free tropospheric aerosol size distribution and refractive index increases simulated top of the atmosphere radiance at 0.55 µm assuming a fixed erosol optical depth of 0.5 by 10–15 %, reaching a maximum difference at low solar zenith angles. We test the sensitivity of the retrieval to the vertical distribution f the aerosol and find that this is unimportant in determining simulated radiance at 0.55 µm. We also test the ability of the ORAC retrieval when used to produce the GlobAerosol dataset to correctly identify continental aerosol outflow from the African continent and we find that it poorly constrains aerosol speciation. We develop spatially and temporally resolved prior distributions of aerosols to inform the retrieval which incorporates five aerosol models: desert dust, maritime, biomass burning, urban and continental. We use a Saharan Dust Index and the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model to describe dust and biomass burning aerosol outflow, and compare AOD using our speciation against the GlobAerosol retrieval during January and July 2006. We find AOD discrepancies of 0.2–1 over regions of intense biomass burning outflow, where AOD from our aerosol speciation and GlobAerosol speciation can differ by as much as 50 - 70 %.

The structure and evolution of the stratospheric vortex in response to natural forcings

The structure and evolution of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is assessed during opposing phases of, primarily, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), but the 11 year solar cycle and winters following large volcanic eruptions are also examined. The analysis is performed by taking 2-D moments of vortex potential vorticity (PV) fields which allow the area and centroid of the vortex to be calculated throughout the ERA-40 reanalysis data set (1958–2002). Composites of these diagnostics for the different phases of the natural forcings are then considered. Statistically significant results are found regarding the structure and evolution of the vortex during, in particular, the ENSO and QBO phases. When compared with the more traditional zonal mean zonal wind diagnostic at 60°N, the moment-based diagnostics are far more robust and contain more information regarding the state of the vortex. The study details, for the first time, a comprehensive sequence of events which map the evolution of the vortex during each of the forcings throughout an extended winter period.

The precipitation climate of Central Asia: intercomparison of observational and numerical data sources in a remote semiarid region

In this study, we systematically compare a wide range of observational and numerical precipitation datasets for Central Asia. Data considered include two re-analyses, three datasets based on direct observations, and the output of a regional climate model simulation driven by a global re-analysis. These are validated and intercompared with respect to their ability to represent the Central Asian precipitation climate. In each of the datasets, we consider the mean spatial distribution and the seasonal cycle of precipitation, the amplitude of interannual variability, the representation of individual yearly anomalies, the precipitation sensitivity (i.e. the response to wet and dry conditions), and the temporal homogeneity of precipitation. Additionally, we carried out part of these analyses for datasets available in real time. The mutual agreement between the observations is used as an indication of how far these data can be used for validating precipitation data from other sources. In particular, we show that the observations usually agree qualitatively on anomalies in individual years while it is not always possible to use them for the quantitative validation of the amplitude of interannual variability. The regional climate model is capable of improving the spatial distribution of precipitation. At the same time, it strongly underestimates summer precipitation and its variability, while interannual variations are well represented during the other seasons, in particular in the Central Asian mountains during winter and spring

An item response analysis of the motor and behavioral subscales of the unified Huntington's disease rating scale in huntington disease gene expansion carriers

Although the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) is widely used in the assessment of Huntington disease (HD), the ability of individual items to discriminate individual differences in motor or behavioral manifestations has not been extensively studied in HD gene expansion carriers without a motor-defined clinical diagnosis (ie, prodromal-HD or prHD). To elucidate the relationship between scores on individual motor and behavioral UHDRS items and total score for each subscale, a nonparametric item response analysis was performed on retrospective data from 2 multicenter longitudinal studies. Motor and behavioral assessments were supplied for 737 prHD individuals with data from 2114 visits (PREDICT-HD) and 686 HD individuals with data from 1482 visits (REGISTRY). Option characteristic curves were generated for UHDRS subscale items in relation to their subscale score. In prHD, overall severity of motor signs was low, and participants had scores of 2 or above on very few items. In HD, motor items that assessed ocular pursuit, saccade initiation, finger tapping, tandem walking, and to a lesser extent, saccade velocity, dysarthria, tongue protrusion, pronation/supination, Luria, bradykinesia, choreas, gait, and balance on the retropulsion test were found to discriminate individual differences across a broad range of motor severity. In prHD, depressed mood, anxiety, and irritable behavior demonstrated good discriminative properties. In HD, depressed mood demonstrated a good relationship with the overall behavioral score. These data suggest that at least some UHDRS items appear to have utility across a broad range of severity, although many items demonstrate problematic features.

An inverse method for determining source characteristics for emergency response applications

Following a malicious or accidental atmospheric release in an outdoor environment it is essential for first responders to ensure safety by identifying areas where human life may be in danger. For this to happen quickly, reliable information is needed on the source strength and location, and the type of chemical agent released. We present here an inverse modelling technique that estimates the source strength and location of such a release, together with the uncertainty in those estimates, using a limited number of measurements of concentration from a network of chemical sensors considering a single, steady, ground-level source. The technique is evaluated using data from a set of dispersion experiments conducted in a meteorological wind tunnel, where simultaneous measurements of concentration time series were obtained in the plume from a ground-level point-source emission of a passive tracer. In particular, we analyze the response to the number of sensors deployed and their arrangement, and to sampling and model errors. We find that the inverse algorithm can generate acceptable estimates of the source characteristics with as few as four sensors, providing these are well-placed and that the sampling error is controlled. Configurations with at least three sensors in a profile across the plume were found to be superior to other arrangements examined. Analysis of the influence of sampling error due to the use of short averaging times showed that the uncertainty in the source estimates grew as the sampling time decreased. This demonstrated that averaging times greater than about 5min (full scale time) lead to acceptable accuracy.

Exposure of Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium to triclosan induces a species-specific response, including drug detoxification

Objectives: The use of triclosan within various environments has been linked to the development of multiple drug resistance (MDR) through the increased expression of efflux pumps such as AcrAB-ToIC. In this work, we investigate the effect of triclosan exposure in order to ascertain the response of two species to the presence of this widely used biocide. Methods: The transcriptomes of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium SL1344 and Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 after exposure to the MIC of triclosan (0.12 mg/L) were determined in microarray experiments. Phenotypic validation of the transcriptomic data included RT-PCR, ability to form a biofilm and motility assays. Results: Despite important differences in the triclosan-dependent transcriptomes of the two species, increased expression of efflux pump component genes was seen in both. Increased expression of soxS was observed in Salmonella Typhimurium, however, within E. coli, decreased expression was seen. Expression of fabBAGI in Salmonella Typhimurium was decreased, whereas in E. coli expression of fabABFH was increased. Increased expression of ompR and genes within this regulon (e.g. ompC, csgD and ssrA) was seen in the transcriptome of Salmonella Typhimurium. An unexpected response of E. coli was the differential expression of genes within operons involved in iron homeostasis; these included fhu, fep and ent. Conclusions: These data indicate that whilst a core response to triclosan exposure exists, the differential transcriptome of each species was different. This suggests that E. coli K-12 should not be considered the paradigm for the Enterobacteriaceae when exploring the effects of antimicrobial agents.

History education in comprehensive schools: using school level data to interpret national patterns

This paper reports the findings from two large scale national on-line surveys carried out in 2009 and 2010, which explored the state of history teaching in English secondary schools. Large variation in provision was identified within comprehensive schools in response to national policy decisions and initiatives. Using the data from the surveys and school level data that is publicly available, this study examines situated factors, particularly the nature of the school intake, the numbers of pupils with special educational needs and the socio-economic status of the area surrounding the school, and the impact these have on the provision of history education. The findings show that there is a growing divide between those students that have access to the ‘powerful knowledge’, provided by subjects like history, and those that do not.

Vertical propagation of information in a middle atmosphere data assimilation system by gravity-wave drag feedbacks

The mesospheric response to the 2002 Antarctic Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is analysed using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model Data Assimilation System (CMAM-DAS), where it represents a vertical propagation of information from the observations into the data-free mesosphere. The CMAM-DAS simulates a cooling in the lowest part of the mesosphere which is accomplished by resolved motions, but which is extended to the mid- to upper mesosphere by the response of the model's non-orographic gravity-wave drag parameterization to the change in zonal winds. The basic mechanism is that elucidated by Holton consisting of a net eastward wave-drag anomaly in the mesosphere during the SSW, although in this case there is a net upwelling in the polar mesosphere. Since the zonal-mean mesospheric response is shown to be predictable, this demonstrates that variations in the mesospheric state can be slaved to the lower atmosphere through gravity-wave drag.

Tree species diversity interacts with elevated CO2 to induce a greater root system response

As a consequence of land use change and the burning of fossil fuels, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are increasing and altering the dynamics of the carbon cycle in forest ecosystems. In a number of studies using single tree species, fine root biomass has been shown to be strongly increased by elevated CO2. However, natural forests are often intimate mixtures of a number of co-occurring species. To investigate the interaction between tree mixture and elevated CO2, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula and Fagus sylvatica were planted in areas of single species and a three species polyculture in a free-air CO2 enrichment study (BangorFACE). The trees were exposed to ambient or elevated CO2 (580 µmol mol-1) for four years. Fine and coarse root biomass, together with fine root turnover and fine root morphological characteristics were measured. Fine root biomass, and morphology responded differentially to elevated CO2 at different soil depths in the three species when grown in monocultures. In polyculture, a greater response to elevated CO2 was observed in coarse roots to a depth of 20 cm, and fine root area index to a depth of 30 cm. Total fine root biomass was positively affected by elevated CO2 at the end of the experiment, but not by species diversity. Our data suggest that existing biogeochemical cycling models parameterised with data from species grown in monoculture may be underestimating the belowground response to global change.

Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data

The nature of private commercial real estate markets presents difficulties for monitoring market performance. Assets are heterogeneous and spatially dispersed, trading is infrequent and there is no central marketplace in which prices and cash flows of properties can be easily observed. Appraisal based indices represent one response to these issues. However, these have been criticised on a number of grounds: that they may understate volatility, lag turning points and be affected by client influence issues. Thus, this paper reports econometrically derived transaction based indices of the UK commercial real estate market using Investment Property Databank (IPD) data, comparing them with published appraisal based indices. The method is similar to that presented by Fisher, Geltner, and Pollakowski (2007) and used by Massachusett, Institute of Technology (MIT) on National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data, although it employs value rather than equal weighting. The results show stronger growth from the transaction based indices in the run up to the peak in the UK market in 2007. They also show that returns from these series are more volatile and less autocorrelated than their appraisal based counterparts, but, surprisingly, differences in turning points were not found. The conclusion then debates the applications and limitations these series have as measures of market performance.

Demand response — a different form of distributed storage?

Reduced flexibility of low carbon generation could pose new challenges for future energy systems. Both demand response and distributed storage may have a role to play in supporting future system balancing. This paper reviews how these technically different, but functionally similar approaches compare and compete with one another. Household survey data is used to test the effectiveness of price signals to deliver demand responses for appliances with a high degree of agency. The underlying unit of storage for different demand response options is discussed, with particular focus on the ability to enhance demand side flexibility in the residential sector. We conclude that a broad range of options, with different modes of storage, may need to be considered, if residential demand flexibility is to be maximised.

Emotion and anticipation in an enactive framework for cognition (response to Andy Clark)

Undeniably, anticipation plays a crucial role in cognition. By what means, to what extent, and what it achieves remain open questions. In a recent BBS target article, Clark (in press) depicts an integrative model of the brain that builds on hierarchical Bayesian models of neural processing (Rao and Ballard, 1999; Friston, 2005; Brown et al., 2011), and their most recent formulation using the free-energy principle borrowed from thermodynamics (Feldman and Friston, 2010; Friston, 2010; Friston et al., 2010). Hierarchical generative models of cognition, such as those described by Clark, presuppose the manipulation of representations and internal models of the world, in as much detail as is perceptually available. Perhaps surprisingly, Clark acknowledges the existence of a “virtual version of the sensory data” (p. 4), but with no reference to some of the historical debates that shaped cognitive science, related to the storage, manipulation, and retrieval of representations in a cognitive system (Shanahan, 1997), or accounting for the emergence of intentionality within such a system (Searle, 1980; Preston and Bishop, 2002). Instead of demonstrating how this Bayesian framework responds to these foundational questions, Clark describes the structure and the functional properties of an action-oriented, multi-level system that is meant to combine perception, learning, and experience (Niedenthal, 2007).

The early transcriptomic response to interleukin 1β and interleukin 33 in rat neonatal cardiomyocytes

In the heart, inflammatory cytokines including interleukin (IL) 1β are implicated in regulating adaptive and maladaptive changes, whereas IL33 negatively regulates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and promotes cardioprotection. These agonists signal through a common co-receptor but, in cardiomyocytes, IL1β more potently activates mitogen-activated protein kinases and NFκB, pathways that regulate gene expression. We compared the effects of external application of IL1β and IL33 on the cardiomyocyte transcriptome. Neonatal rat cardiomyocytes were exposed to IL1β or IL33 (0.5, 1 or 2h). Transcriptomic profiles were determined using Affymetrix rat genome 230 2.0 microarrays and data were validated by quantitative PCR. IL1β induced significant changes in more RNAs than IL33 and, generally, to a greater degree. It also had a significantly greater effect in downregulating mRNAs and in regulating mRNAs associated with selected pathways. IL33 had a greater effect on a small, select group of specific transcripts. Thus, differences in intensity of intracellular signals can deliver qualitatively different responses. Quantitatively different responses in production of receptor agonists and transcription factors may contribute to qualitative differences at later times resulting in different phenotypic cellular responses.

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.