On the optimal capacity expansion of electric power systems

The analysis of investment in the electric power has been the subject of intensive research for many years. The efficient generation and distribution of electrical energy is a difficult task involving the operation of a complex network of facilities, often located over very large geographical regions. Electric power utilities have made use of an enormous range of mathematical models. Some models address time spans which last for a fraction of a second, such as those that deal with lightning strikes on transmission lines while at the other end of the scale there are models which address time horizons consisting of ten or twenty years; these usually involve long range planning issues. This thesis addresses the optimal long term capacity expansion of an interconnected power system. The aim of this study has been to derive a new, long term planning model which recognises the regional differences which exist for energy demand and which are present in the construction and operation of power plant and transmission line equipment. Perhaps the most innovative feature of the new model is the direct inclusion of regional energy demand curves in the nonlinear form. This results in a nonlinear capacity expansion model. After review of the relevant literature, the thesis first develops a model for the optimal operation of a power grid. This model directly incorporates regional demand curves. The model is a nonlinear programming problem containing both integer and continuous variables. A solution algorithm is developed which is based upon a resource decomposition scheme that separates the integer variables from the continuous ones. The decompostion of the operating problem leads to an interactive scheme which employs a mixed integer programming problem, known as the master, to generate trial operating configurations. The optimum operating conditions of each trial configuration is found using a smooth nonlinear programming model. The dual vector recovered from this model is subsequently used by the master to generate the next trial configuration. The solution algorithm progresses until lower and upper bounds converge. A range of numerical experiments are conducted and these experiments are included in the discussion. Using the operating model as a basis, a regional capacity expansion model is then developed. It determines the type, location and capacity of additional power plants and transmission lines, which are required to meet predicted electicity demands. A generalised resource decompostion scheme, similar to that used to solve the operating problem, is employed. The solution algorithm is used to solve a range of test problems and the results of these numerical experiments are reported. Finally, the expansion problem is applied to the Queensland electricity grid in Australia.

On the optimal capacity expansion of electric power systems

The analysis of investment in the electric power has been the subject of intensive research for many years. The efficient generation and distribution of electrical energy is a difficult task involving the operation of a complex network of facilities, often located over very large geographical regions. Electric power utilities have made use of an enormous range of mathematical models. Some models address time spans which last for a fraction of a second, such as those that deal with lightning strikes on transmission lines while at the other end of the scale there are models which address time horizons consisting of ten or twenty years; these usually involve long range planning issues. This thesis addresses the optimal long term capacity expansion of an interconnected power system. The aim of this study has been to derive a new, long term planning model which recognises the regional differences which exist for energy demand and which are present in the construction and operation of power plant and transmission line equipment. Perhaps the most innovative feature of the new model is the direct inclusion of regional energy demand curves in the nonlinear form. This results in a nonlinear capacity expansion model. After review of the relevant literature, the thesis first develops a model for the optimal operation of a power grid. This model directly incorporates regional demand curves. The model is a nonlinear programming problem containing both integer and continuous variables. A solution algorithm is developed which is based upon a resource decomposition scheme that separates the integer variables from the continuous ones. The decompostion of the operating problem leads to an interactive scheme which employs a mixed integer programming problem, known as the master, to generate trial operating configurations. The optimum operating conditions of each trial configuration is found using a smooth nonlinear programming model. The dual vector recovered from this model is subsequently used by the master to generate the next trial configuration. The solution algorithm progresses until lower and upper bounds converge. A range of numerical experiments are conducted and these experiments are included in the discussion. Using the operating model as a basis, a regional capacity expansion model is then developed. It determines the type, location and capacity of additional power plants and transmission lines, which are required to meet predicted electicity demands. A generalised resource decompostion scheme, similar to that used to solve the operating problem, is employed. The solution algorithm is used to solve a range of test problems and the results of these numerical experiments are reported. Finally, the expansion problem is applied to the Queensland electricity grid in Australia

Web-based and traditional public participation in comprehensive planning : a comparative study

The present paper examines whether the potential advantages of the expanding practice of web-based public participation only complement the benefits of the traditional techniques, or are empowering enough to replace them. The question is examined in a real-world case of neighbourhood revitalization, in which both techniques were practiced simultaneously. Comparisons are made at four major planning junctions, in order to study the contributions of each technique to the qualities of involvement, trust, and empowerment. The results show that web-based participants not only differ from the participants of traditional practices, but they also differ from each other on the basis of their type of web participation. The results indicate that web-based participation is an effective and affective complementary means of public participation, but it cannot replace the traditional unmediated techniques.

Improved algebraic cryptanalysis of QUAD, Bivium and Trivium via graph partitioning on equation systems

We present a novel approach for preprocessing systems of polynomial equations via graph partitioning. The variable-sharing graph of a system of polynomial equations is defined. If such graph is disconnected, then the corresponding system of equations can be split into smaller ones that can be solved individually. This can provide a tremendous speed-up in computing the solution to the system, but is unlikely to occur either randomly or in applications. However, by deleting certain vertices on the graph, the variable-sharing graph could be disconnected in a balanced fashion, and in turn the system of polynomial equations would be separated into smaller systems of near-equal sizes. In graph theory terms, this process is equivalent to finding balanced vertex partitions with minimum-weight vertex separators. The techniques of finding these vertex partitions are discussed, and experiments are performed to evaluate its practicality for general graphs and systems of polynomial equations. Applications of this approach in algebraic cryptanalysis on symmetric ciphers are presented: For the QUAD family of stream ciphers, we show how a malicious party can manufacture conforming systems that can be easily broken. For the stream ciphers Bivium and Trivium, we nachieve significant speedups in algebraic attacks against them, mainly in a partial key guess scenario. In each of these cases, the systems of polynomial equations involved are well-suited to our graph partitioning method. These results may open a new avenue for evaluating the security of symmetric ciphers against algebraic attacks.

The patentability of non-physical inventions : lessons from the United States

Patent systems around the world are being pressed to recognise and protect challengingly new and exciting subject matter in order to keep pace with the rapid technological advancement of our age and the fact we are moving into the era of the ‘knowledge economy’. This rapid development and pressure to expand the bounds of what has traditionally been recognised as patentable subject matter has created uncertainty regarding what it is that the patent system is actually supposed to protect. Among other things, the patent system has had to contend with uncertainty surrounding claims to horticultural and agricultural methods, artificial living micro-organisms, methods of treating the human body, computer software and business methods. The contentious issue of the moment is one at whose heart lies the important distinction between what is a mere abstract idea and what is properly an invention deserving of the monopoly protection afforded by a patent. That question is whether purely intangible inventions, being methods that do not involve a physical aspect or effect or cause a physical transformation of matter, constitute patentable subject matter. This paper goes some way to addressing these uncertainties by considering how the Australian approach to the question can be informed by developments arising in the United States of America, and canvassing some of the possible lessons we in Australia might learn from the approaches taken thus far in the United States.

The question concerning (internet) time

Spatial representations, metaphors and imaginaries (cyberspace, web pages) have been the mainstay of internet research for a long time. Instead of repeating these themes, this paper seeks to answer the question of how we might understand the concept of time in relation to internet research. After a brief excursus on the general history of the concept, this paper proposes three different approaches to the conceptualisation of internet time. The common thread underlying all the approaches is the notion of time as an assemblage of elements such as technical artefacts, social relations and metaphors. By drawing out time in this way, the paper addresses the challenge of thinking of internet time as coexistence, a clash of fluxes, metaphors, lived experiences and assemblages. In other words, this paper proposes a way to articulate internet time as a multiplicity.

Accounting information systems in a centrally planned economy : the case of the General Company for Pipelines (GCP)

The paper has a twofold purpose. First it highlights the importance of accounting information in the economic development of developing countries, with a particular focus on the nation of Libya. Secondly, using the case of Libya's General Company for Pipelines (GCP), it demonstrates that the use of accounting information to achieve economic development goals is determined to a large extent by the political/ideological setting in which it is generated. The study is based on a literature review and archival research, reinforced by a qualitative case study comprised of interviews, attendance at meetings and a study of internal documents. A study of The General Company for Pipelines (GCP) revealed that frequent politically driven changes in the structure and number of popular congresses and committees severely limited the use of accounting information, relegating it to a formal role. In consequence, accounting information had litle effect on stimulating economic development in Libya. This study focuses on one case study which does limit generalisability. However, it also suggests fruitful research areas considering the historic factors which have determined the accounting role in developing and planned economies. By providing insights about social factors which have determined the use of accounting in a planned economy, this study has implications for similar economies as they move towards a more globalised mode of operations which enhance the role of accounting in meeting economic development needs. If devleoping countries are to harness the potential of accounting aid in the achievement of their development plans, the social and political setting in which accounting has been conducted needs to be understood.

Overcoming reputation and proof-of-work systems in botnets

Reputation and proof-of-work systems have been outlined as methods bot masters will soon use to defend their peer-to-peer botnets. These techniques are designed to prevent sybil attacks, such as those that led to the downfall of the Storm botnet. To evaluate the effectiveness of these techniques, a botnet that employed these techniques was simulated, and the amount of resources required to stage a successful sybil attack against it measured. While the proof-of-work system was found to increase the resources required for a successful sybil attack, the reputation system was found to lower the amount of resources required to disable the botnet.

Complex Urban Systems

Presentation about research projects that build understanding of urban design and interactions and plan for future opportunities. What do we need to model?

Novel analytical and numerical methods for solving fractional dynamical systems

During the past three decades, the subject of fractional calculus (that is, calculus of integrals and derivatives of arbitrary order) has gained considerable popularity and importance, mainly due to its demonstrated applications in numerous diverse and widespread fields in science and engineering. For example, fractional calculus has been successfully applied to problems in system biology, physics, chemistry and biochemistry, hydrology, medicine, and finance. In many cases these new fractional-order models are more adequate than the previously used integer-order models, because fractional derivatives and integrals enable the description of the memory and hereditary properties inherent in various materials and processes that are governed by anomalous diffusion. Hence, there is a growing need to find the solution behaviour of these fractional differential equations. However, the analytic solutions of most fractional differential equations generally cannot be obtained. As a consequence, approximate and numerical techniques are playing an important role in identifying the solution behaviour of such fractional equations and exploring their applications. The main objective of this thesis is to develop new effective numerical methods and supporting analysis, based on the finite difference and finite element methods, for solving time, space and time-space fractional dynamical systems involving fractional derivatives in one and two spatial dimensions. A series of five published papers and one manuscript in preparation will be presented on the solution of the space fractional diffusion equation, space fractional advectiondispersion equation, time and space fractional diffusion equation, time and space fractional Fokker-Planck equation with a linear or non-linear source term, and fractional cable equation involving two time fractional derivatives, respectively. One important contribution of this thesis is the demonstration of how to choose different approximation techniques for different fractional derivatives. Special attention has been paid to the Riesz space fractional derivative, due to its important application in the field of groundwater flow, system biology and finance. We present three numerical methods to approximate the Riesz space fractional derivative, namely the L1/ L2-approximation method, the standard/shifted Gr¨unwald method, and the matrix transform method (MTM). The first two methods are based on the finite difference method, while the MTM allows discretisation in space using either the finite difference or finite element methods. Furthermore, we prove the equivalence of the Riesz fractional derivative and the fractional Laplacian operator under homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions – a result that had not previously been established. This result justifies the aforementioned use of the MTM to approximate the Riesz fractional derivative. After spatial discretisation, the time-space fractional partial differential equation is transformed into a system of fractional-in-time differential equations. We then investigate numerical methods to handle time fractional derivatives, be they Caputo type or Riemann-Liouville type. This leads to new methods utilising either finite difference strategies or the Laplace transform method for advancing the solution in time. The stability and convergence of our proposed numerical methods are also investigated. Numerical experiments are carried out in support of our theoretical analysis. We also emphasise that the numerical methods we develop are applicable for many other types of fractional partial differential equations.

On democracy

If one clear argument emerged from my doctoral thesis in political science, it is that there is no agreement as to what democracy is. There are over 40 different varieties of democracy ranging from those in the mainstream with subtle or minute differences to those playing by themselves in the corner. And many of these various types of democracy are very well argued, empirically supported, and highly relevant to certain polities. The irony is that the thing which all of these democratic varieties or the ‘basic democracy’ that all other forms of democracy stem from, is elusive. There is no international agreement in the literature or in political practice as to what ‘basic democracy’ is and that is problematic as many of us use the word ‘democracy’ every day and it is a concept of tremendous importance internationally. I am still uncertain as to why this problem has not been resolved before by far greater minds than my own, and it may have something to do with the recent growth in democratic theory this past decade and the innovative areas of thought my thesis required, but I think I’ve got the answer. By listing each type of democracy and filling the column next to this list with the literature associated with these various styles of democracy, I amassed a large and comprehensive body of textual data. My research intended to find out what these various styles of democracy had in common and to create a taxonomy (like the ‘tree of life’ in biology) of democracy to attempt at showing how various styles of democracy have ‘evolved’ over the past 5000 years.ii I then ran a word frequency analysis program or a piece of software that counts the 100 most commonly used words in the texts. This is where my logic came in as I had to make sense of these words. How did they answer what the most fundamental commonalities are between 40 different styles of democracy? I used a grounded theory analysis which required that I argue my way through these words to form a ‘theory’ or plausible explanation as to why these particular words and not others are the important ones for answering the question. It came down to the argument that all 40 styles of democracy analysed have the following in common 1) A concept of a citizenry. 2) A concept of sovereignty. 3) A concept of equality. 4) A concept of law. 5) A concept of communication. 6) And a concept of selecting officials. Thus, democracy is a defined citizenry with its own concept of sovereignty which it exercises through the institutions which support the citizenry’s understandings of equality, law, communication, and the selection of officials. Once any of these 6 concepts are defined in a particular way it creates a style of democracy. From this, we can also see that there can be more than one style of democracy active in a particular government as a citizenry is composed of many different aggregates with their own understandings of the six concepts.

Analysis of distrubances in large interconnected power systems

World economies increasingly demand reliable and economical power supply and distribution. To achieve this aim the majority of power systems are becoming interconnected, with several power utilities supplying the one large network. One problem that occurs in a large interconnected power system is the regular occurrence of system disturbances which can result in the creation of intra-area oscillating modes. These modes can be regarded as the transient responses of the power system to excitation, which are generally characterised as decaying sinusoids. For a power system operating ideally these transient responses would ideally would have a “ring-down” time of 10-15 seconds. Sometimes equipment failures disturb the ideal operation of power systems and oscillating modes with ring-down times greater than 15 seconds arise. The larger settling times associated with such “poorly damped” modes cause substantial power flows between generation nodes, resulting in significant physical stresses on the power distribution system. If these modes are not just poorly damped but “negatively damped”, catastrophic failures of the system can occur. To ensure system stability and security of large power systems, the potentially dangerous oscillating modes generated from disturbances (such as equipment failure) must be quickly identified. The power utility must then apply appropriate damping control strategies. In power system monitoring there exist two facets of critical interest. The first is the estimation of modal parameters for a power system in normal, stable, operation. The second is the rapid detection of any substantial changes to this normal, stable operation (because of equipment breakdown for example). Most work to date has concentrated on the first of these two facets, i.e. on modal parameter estimation. Numerous modal parameter estimation techniques have been proposed and implemented, but all have limitations [1-13]. One of the key limitations of all existing parameter estimation methods is the fact that they require very long data records to provide accurate parameter estimates. This is a particularly significant problem after a sudden detrimental change in damping. One simply cannot afford to wait long enough to collect the large amounts of data required for existing parameter estimators. Motivated by this gap in the current body of knowledge and practice, the research reported in this thesis focuses heavily on rapid detection of changes (i.e. on the second facet mentioned above). This thesis reports on a number of new algorithms which can rapidly flag whether or not there has been a detrimental change to a stable operating system. It will be seen that the new algorithms enable sudden modal changes to be detected within quite short time frames (typically about 1 minute), using data from power systems in normal operation. The new methods reported in this thesis are summarised below. The Energy Based Detector (EBD): The rationale for this method is that the modal disturbance energy is greater for lightly damped modes than it is for heavily damped modes (because the latter decay more rapidly). Sudden changes in modal energy, then, imply sudden changes in modal damping. Because the method relies on data from power systems in normal operation, the modal disturbances are random. Accordingly, the disturbance energy is modelled as a random process (with the parameters of the model being determined from the power system under consideration). A threshold is then set based on the statistical model. The energy method is very simple to implement and is computationally efficient. It is, however, only able to determine whether or not a sudden modal deterioration has occurred; it cannot identify which mode has deteriorated. For this reason the method is particularly well suited to smaller interconnected power systems that involve only a single mode. Optimal Individual Mode Detector (OIMD): As discussed in the previous paragraph, the energy detector can only determine whether or not a change has occurred; it cannot flag which mode is responsible for the deterioration. The OIMD seeks to address this shortcoming. It uses optimal detection theory to test for sudden changes in individual modes. In practice, one can have an OIMD operating for all modes within a system, so that changes in any of the modes can be detected. Like the energy detector, the OIMD is based on a statistical model and a subsequently derived threshold test. The Kalman Innovation Detector (KID): This detector is an alternative to the OIMD. Unlike the OIMD, however, it does not explicitly monitor individual modes. Rather it relies on a key property of a Kalman filter, namely that the Kalman innovation (the difference between the estimated and observed outputs) is white as long as the Kalman filter model is valid. A Kalman filter model is set to represent a particular power system. If some event in the power system (such as equipment failure) causes a sudden change to the power system, the Kalman model will no longer be valid and the innovation will no longer be white. Furthermore, if there is a detrimental system change, the innovation spectrum will display strong peaks in the spectrum at frequency locations associated with changes. Hence the innovation spectrum can be monitored to both set-off an “alarm” when a change occurs and to identify which modal frequency has given rise to the change. The threshold for alarming is based on the simple Chi-Squared PDF for a normalised white noise spectrum [14, 15]. While the method can identify the mode which has deteriorated, it does not necessarily indicate whether there has been a frequency or damping change. The PPM discussed next can monitor frequency changes and so can provide some discrimination in this regard. The Polynomial Phase Method (PPM): In [16] the cubic phase (CP) function was introduced as a tool for revealing frequency related spectral changes. This thesis extends the cubic phase function to a generalised class of polynomial phase functions which can reveal frequency related spectral changes in power systems. A statistical analysis of the technique is performed. When applied to power system analysis, the PPM can provide knowledge of sudden shifts in frequency through both the new frequency estimate and the polynomial phase coefficient information. This knowledge can be then cross-referenced with other detection methods to provide improved detection benchmarks.