The Australian mortality decline: all-cause mortality 1788-1990

This review describes the Australian decline in all-cause mortality, 1788-1990, and compares this with declines in Europe and North America. The period until the 1870s shows characteristic 'crisis mortality', attributable to epidemics of infectious disease. A decline in overall mortality is evident from 1880. A precipitous fall occurs in infant mortality from 1900, similar to that in European countries. Infant mortality continues downward during this century (except during the 1930s), with periods of accelerated decline during the 1940s (antibiotics) and early 1970s. Maternal mortality remains high until a precipitous fall in 1937 coinciding with the arrival of sulphonamide. Excess mortality due to the 1919 influenza epidemic is evident. Artefactual falls in mortality occur in 1930, and for men during the war of 1939-1945. Stagnation in overall mortality decline during the 1930s and 1945-1970 is evident for adult males, and during 1960-1970 for adult females. A decline in mortality is registered in both sexes from 1970, particularly in middle and older age groups, with narrowing of the sex differential. The mortality decline in Australia is broadly similar to those of the United Kingdom and several European countries, although an Australian advantage during last century and the first part of this century may have been due to less industrialisation, lower population density and better nutrition. Australia shows no war-related interruptions in the mortality decline. Australian mortality patterns from 1970 are also similar to those observed in North America and European countries (including the United Kingdom, but excluding Eastern Europe).

The Australian mortality decline: cause-specific mortality 1907-1990

This review describes the changes in composition of mortality by major attributed cause during the Australian mortality decline this century. The principal categories employed were: infectious diseases, nonrheumatic cardiovascular disease, external causes, cancer,'other' causes and ill-defined conditions. The data were age-adjusted. Besides registration problems (which also affect all-cause mortality) artefacts due to changes in diagnostic designation and coding-are evident. The most obvious trends over the period are the decline in infectious disease mortality (half the decline 1907-1990 occurs before 1949), and the epidemic of circulatory disease mortality which appears to commence around 1930, peaks during the 1950s and 1960s, and declines from 1970 to 1990 (to a rate half that at the peak). Mortality for cancer remains static for females after 1907, but increases steadily for males, reaching a plateau in the mid-1980s (owing to trends in lung cancer); trends in cancers of individual sites are diverse. External cause mortality declines after 1970. The decline in total mortality to 1930 is associated with decline in infection and 'other' causes, Stagnation of mortality decline in 1930-1940 and 1946-1970 for males is a consequence of contemporaneous movements in opposite directions of infection mortality (decrease) and circulatory disease and cancer mortality (increase). In females, declines in infections and 'other' causes of death exceed the increase in circulatory disease mortality until 1960, then stability in all major causes of death to 1970. The overall mortality decline since 1970 is a consequence of a reduction in circulatory disease,'other' cause, external cause and infection mortality, despite the increase in cancer mortality (for males).

Incoherent interlayer transport and angular-dependent magnetoresistance oscillations in layered metals

The effect of incoherent interlayer transport on the interlayer resistance of a layered metal is considered. We find that for both quasi-one-dimensional and quasi-two-dimensional Fermi liquids the angular dependence of the magnetoresistance is essentially the same for coherent and incoherent transport. Consequently, the existence of a three-dimensional Fermi surface is not necessary to explain the oscillations in the magnetoresistance that are seen in many organic conductors as the field direction is varied. [S0031-9007(98)07660-1].

Comparison of coherent and weakly incoherent transport models for the interlayer magnetoresistance of layered Fermi liquids

The interlayer magnetoresistance of layered metals in a tilted magnetic field is calculated for two distinct models for the interlayer transport. The first model involves coherent interlayer transport, and makes use of results of semiclassical or Bloch-Boltzmann transport theory. The second model involves weakly incoherent interlayer transport where the electron is scattered many times within a layer before tunneling into the next layer. The results are relevant to the interpretation of experiments on angular-dependent magnetoresistance oscillations (AMRO) in quasi-one- and quasi-two-dimensional organic metals. We find that the dependence of the magnetoresistance on the direction of the magnetic field is identical for both models except when the field is almost parallel to the layers. An important implication of this result is that a three-dimensional Fermi surface is not necessary for the observation of the Yamaji and Danner oscillations seen in quasi-two- and quasi-one-dimensional metals, respectively. A universal expression is given for the dependence of the resistance at AMRO maxima and minima on the magnetic field and scattering time (and thus the temperature). We point out three distinctive features of coherent interlayer transport: (i) a beat frequency in the magnetic oscillations of quasi-two-dimensional systems, (ii) a peak in the angular-dependent magnetoresistance when the field is sufficiently large and parallel to the layers, and (iii) a crossover from a linear to a quadratic field dependence for the magnetoresistance when the field is parallel to the layers. Properties (i) and (ii) are compared with published experimental data for a range of quasi-two-dimensional organic metals. [S0163-1829(99)02236-5].

Periodic orbit resonances in layered metals in tilted magnetic fields

The frequency dependence of the interlayer conductivity of a layered Fermi liquid in a magnetic field that is tilted away from the normal to the layers is considered. For both quasi-one- and quasi-two-dimensional systems resonances occur when the frequency is a harmonic of the frequency at which the magnetic field causes the electrons to oscillate on the Fermi surface within the layers. The intensity of the different harmonic resonances varies significantly with the direction of the field. The resonances occur for both coherent and weakly incoherent interlayer transport and so their observation does not imply the existence of a three-dimensional Fermi surface. [S0163-1829(99)51240-X].

Quasistationarity of continuous-time Markov chains with positive drift

We shall study continuous-time Markov chains on the nonnegative integers which are both irreducible and transient, and which exhibit discernible stationarity before drift to infinity sets in. We will show how this 'quasi' stationary behaviour can be modelled using a limiting conditional distribution: specifically, the limiting state probabilities conditional on not having left 0 for the last time. By way of a dual chain, obtained by killing the original process on last exit from 0, we invoke the theory of quasistationarity for absorbing Markov chains. We prove that the conditioned state probabilities of the original chain are equal to the state probabilities of its dual conditioned on non-absorption, thus allowing us to establish the simultaneous existence and then equivalence, of their limiting conditional distributions. Although a limiting conditional distribution for the dual chain is always a quasistationary distribution in the usual sense, a similar statement is not possible for the original chain.

High-frequency acousto-electric single-photon source

We propose a single optical photon source for quantum cryptography based on the acoustoelectric effect. Surface acoustic waves (SAWs) propagating through a quasi-one-dimensional channel have been shown to produce packets of electrons that reside in the SAW minima and travel at the velocity of sound. In our scheme, the electron packets are injected into a p-type region, resulting in photon emission. Since the number of electrons in each packet can be controlled down to a single electron, a stream of single- (or N-) photon states, with a creation time strongly correlated with the driving acoustic field, should be generated.

Cyclotron effective masses in layered metals

Many layered metals such as quasi-two-dimensional organic molecular crystals show properties consistent with a Fermi-liquid description at low temperatures. The effective masses extracted from the temperature dependence of the magnetic oscillations observed in these materials are in the range, m(c)*/m(e) similar to 1 - 7, suggesting that these systems are strongly correlated. However, the ratio m(c)*/m(e) contains both the renormalization due to the electron-electron interaction and the periodic potential of the lattice. We show that for any quasi-two-dimensional band structure, the cyclotron mass is proportional to the density-of-states at the Fermi energy. Due to Luttinger's theorem, this result is also valid in the presence of interactions. We then evaluate m(c) for several model band structures for the beta, kappa, and theta families of (BEDT-TTF)(2)X, where BEDT-TTF is bis-(ethylenedithia-tetrathiafulvalene) and X is an anion. We find that for kappa-(BEDT-TTF)(2)X, the cyclotron mass of the beta orbit, m(c)*(beta) is close to 2 m(c)*(alpha), where m(c)*(alpha) is the effective mass of the alpha orbit. This result is fairly insensitive to the band-structure details. For a wide range of materials we compare values of the cyclotron mass deduced from band-structure calculations to values deduced from measurements of magnetic oscillations and the specific-heat coefficient gamma.

Coupled experimental and thermodynamic modeling studies for metallurgical smelting and coal combustion slag systems

An extensive research program focused on the characterization of various metallurgical complex smelting and coal combustion slags is being undertaken. The research combines both experimental and thermodynamic modeling studies. The approach is illustrated by work on the PbO-ZnO-Al2O3-FeO-Fe2O3-CaO-SiO2 system. Experimental measurements of the liquidus and solidus have been undertaken under oxidizing and reducing conditions using equilibration, quenching, and electron probe X-ray microanalysis. The experimental program has been planned so as to obtain data for thermodynamic model development as well as for pseudo-ternary Liquidus diagrams that can be used directly by process operators. Thermodynamic modeling has been carried out using the computer system FACT, which contains thermodynamic databases with over 5000 compounds and evaluated solution models. The FACT package is used for the calculation of multiphase equilibria in multicomponent systems of industrial interest. A modified quasi-chemical solution model is used for the liquid slag phase. New optimizations have been carried out, which significantly improve the accuracy of the thermodynamic models for lead/zinc smelting and coal combustion processes. Examples of experimentally determined and calculated liquidus diagrams are presented. These examples provide information of direct relevance to various metallurgical smelting and coal combustion processes.

Water wave-driven seepage in marine sediments

The action of water waves moving over a porous seabed drives a seepage flux into and out of the marine sediments. The volume of fluid exchange per wave cycle may affect the rate of contaminant transport in the sediments. In this paper, the dynamic response of the seabed to ocean waves is treated analytically on the basis of pore-elastic theory applied to a porous seabed. The seabed is modelled as a semi-infinite, isotropic, homogeneous material. Most previous investigations on the wave-seabed interaction problem have assumed quasi-static conditions within the seabed, although dynamic behaviour often occurs in natural environments. Furthermore, wave pressures used in the previous approaches were obtained from conventional ocean wave theories: which are based on the assumption of an impermeable rigid seabed. By introducing a complex wave number, we derive a new wave dispersion equation, which includes the seabed characteristics (such as soil permeability, shear modulus, etc.). Based on the new closed-form analytical solution, the relative differences of the wave-induced seabed response under dynamic and quasi-static conditions are examined. The effects of wave and soil parameters on the seepage flux per wave cycle are also discussed in detail. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantum measurement and stochastic processes in mesoscopic conductors

In quantum measurement theory it is necessary to show how a, quantum source conditions a classical stochastic record of measured results. We discuss mesoscopic conductance using quantum stochastic calculus to elucidate the quantum nature of the measurement taking place in these systems. To illustrate the method we derive the current fluctuations in a two terminal mesoscopic circuit with two tunnel barriers containing a single quasi bound state on the well. The method enables us to focus on either the incoming/ outgoing Fermi fields in the leads, or on the irreversible dynamics of the well state itself. We show an equivalence between the approach of Buttiker and the Fermi quantum stochastic calculus for mesoscopic systems.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Anisotropic convection model for the earth's mantle

The paper presents a theory for modeling flow in anisotropic, viscous rock. This theory has originally been developed for the simulation of large deformation processes including the folding and kinking of multi-layered visco-elastic rock (Muhlhaus et al. [1,2]). The orientation of slip planes in the context of crystallographic slip is determined by the normal vector - the director - of these surfaces. The model is applied to simulate anisotropic mantle convection. We compare the evolution of flow patterns, Nusselt number and director orientations for isotropic and anisotropic rheologies. In the simulations we utilize two different finite element methodologies: The Lagrangian Integration Point Method Moresi et al [8] and an Eulerian formulation, which we implemented into the finite element based pde solver Fastflo (www.cmis.csiro.au/Fastflo/). The reason for utilizing two different finite element codes was firstly to study the influence of an anisotropic power law rheology which currently is not implemented into the Lagrangian Integration point scheme [8] and secondly to study the numerical performance of Eulerian (Fastflo)- and Lagrangian integration schemes [8]. It turned out that whereas in the Lagrangian method the Nusselt number vs time plot reached only a quasi steady state where the Nusselt number oscillates around a steady state value the Eulerian scheme reaches exact steady states and produces a high degree of alignment (director orientation locally orthogonal to velocity vector almost everywhere in the computational domain). In the simulations emergent anisotropy was strongest in terms of modulus contrast in the up and down-welling plumes. Mechanisms for anisotropic material behavior in the mantle dynamics context are discussed by Christensen [3]. The dominant mineral phases in the mantle generally do not exhibit strong elastic anisotropy but they still may be oriented by the convective flow. Thus viscous anisotropy (the main focus of this paper) may or may not correlate with elastic or seismic anisotropy.

Environmental influence on the stress corrosion cracking of rock bolts

In order to understand rock bolt Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC), a series of experiments have been performed in Linearly Increasing Stress Test (LIST) apparatus. One series of experiments determined the threshold stress of various bolt metallurgies (900 MPa for Steel A, and 800 MPa for Steel B and C). The high values of threshold stress suggest that SCC begins in rock bolts when they are sheared by moving rock strata. Typical crack velocity values have been measured to be 2.5 x 10(-8) m s(-1), indicating that there is not much benefit for rock bolt steel of higher fracture toughness. Another series of experiments were performed to understand the environmental conditions causing SCC of steel A and galvanised Steel A rock bolt steel. SCC only occurred for environmental conditions for which produce hydrogen on the sample surface, leading to hydrogen embrittlement and SCC. Fracture surfaces of LIST samples failed by SCC were found to display the same fracture regions as fracture surfaces of rock bolts failed in service by SCC: Tearing Topography Surface (TTS), Corrugated Irregular Surface (CIS), quasi Micro Void Coalescence (qMVC) and Fast Fracture Surface (FFS). Water chemistry analysis were carried out on samples collected from various Australian mines in order to compare laboratory electrolyte conditions to those found in underground mines.

Impact of the Subprime Crisis in the Provision of Credit Risk of Major National Banks

Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.