Pacific pandanus fruit: an ethnographic approach to understanding an overlooked source of provitamin A carotenoids

Commonly recommended plant sources of provitamin A, such as dark green leafy vegetables, are not acceptable in many population groups. The objective of this study was to identify other indigenous foods that may be effectively promoted to alleviate vitamin A deficiency (VAD) and to gather information relevant to identification, production, acquisition, and consumption of foods relevant to a food-based VAD prevention strategy in the Federated States of Micronesia. An ethnographic study on edible pandanus cultivars, involving key informant interviews and observation was carried out. Analyses revealed a great range in carotenoid content. Several orange-coloured pandanus cultivars, all highly acceptable, contained high levels of carotenoid, almost meeting daily requirements in usual consumption patterns, whereas light yellow-coloured cultivars contained low levels. Availability has decreased substantially in recent years due to increased consumption of imported foods and general neglect of indigenous foods. High-carotenoid pandanus should be promoted for general enjoyment and health benefits.

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics.

An investigation into effects of long-distance seed dispersal on organelle population genetic structure and colonization rate: a model analysis

A simulation-based modelling approach is used to examine the effects of stratified seed dispersal (representing the distribution of the majority of dispersal around the maternal parent and also rare long-distance dispersal) on the genetic structure of maternally inherited genomes and the colonization rate of expanding plant populations. The model is parameterized to approximate postglacial oak colonization in the UK, but is relevant to plant populations that exhibit stratified seed dispersal. The modelling approach considers the colonization of individual plants over a large area (three 500 km x 10 km rolled transects are used to approximate a 500 km x 300 km area). Our approach shows how the interaction of plant population dynamics with stratified dispersal can result in a spatially patchy haplotype structure. We show that while both colonization speeds and the resulting genetic structure are influenced by the characteristics of the dispersal kernel, they are robust to changes in the periodicity of long-distance events, provided the average number of long-distance dispersal events remains constant. We also consider the effects of additional physical and environmental mechanisms on plant colonization. Results show significant changes in genetic structure when the initial colonization of different haplotypes is staggered over time and when a barrier to colonization is introduced. Environmental influences on survivorship and fecundity affect both the genetic structure and the speed of colonization. The importance of these mechanisms in relation to the postglacial spread and genetic structure of oak in the UK is discussed.

A transdisciplinary approach to adolescent forensic mental health

Objective: To examine new strategies which may be implemented to address the significant mental health and substance abuse problems of young people within the juvenile justice system. Method: Wide-ranging literature review of mental health problems within the juvenile justice population is given, illustrating the high prevalence of mental health problems within this cohort of young people. Reference is made to the differing demographics and agendas of the American justice system compared to that found in Australia. Results: It is suggested that new initiatives stemming from quality Australian studies are required in order to facilitate reform within adolescent forensic mental health. Psychiatrists need to be at the forefront of innovative policy delivery within the juvenile justice system. Conclusions: A transdisciplinary approach is required to meet the changing needs of young people within the juvenile justice system. Such a system of care recognizes that these young people and their families have multiple needs that cross traditional boundaries and a collaborative approach across agencies is essential at both the policy and practical level. Psychiatrists have an important role to play in the development of these services. A systemic process to address such needs is offered.

Quantitative justification for target concentration intervention - parameter variability and predictive performance using population pharmacokinetic models for aminoglycosides

Aims [1] To quantify the random and predictable components of variability for aminoglycoside clearance and volume of distribution [2] To investigate models for predicting aminoglycoside clearance in patients with low serum creatinine concentrations [3] To evaluate the predictive performance of initial dosing strategies for achieving an aminoglycoside target concentration. Methods Aminoglycoside demographic, dosing and concentration data were collected from 697 adult patients (>=20 years old) as part of standard clinical care using a target concentration intervention approach for dose individualization. It was assumed that aminoglycoside clearance had a renal and a nonrenal component, with the renal component being linearly related to predicted creatinine clearance. Results A two compartment pharmacokinetic model best described the aminoglycoside data. The addition of weight, age, sex and serum creatinine as covariates reduced the random component of between subject variability (BSVR) in clearance (CL) from 94% to 36% of population parameter variability (PPV). The final pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for the model with the best predictive performance were: CL, 4.7 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); intercompartmental clearance (CLic), 1 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); volume of central compartment (V-1), 19.5 l 70 kg(-1); volume of peripheral compartment (V-2) 11.2 l 70 kg(-1). Conclusions Using a fixed dose of aminoglycoside will achieve 35% of typical patients within 80-125% of a required dose. Covariate guided predictions increase this up to 61%. However, because we have shown that random within subject variability (WSVR) in clearance is less than safe and effective variability (SEV), target concentration intervention can potentially achieve safe and effective doses in 90% of patients.

Validation of a food-frequency questionnaire assessment of carotenoid and vitamin E intake using weighed food records and plasma biomarkers: The method of triads model

Background: Reliability or validity studies are important for the evaluation of measurement error in dietary assessment methods. An approach to validation known as the method of triads uses triangulation techniques to calculate the validity coefficient of a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Objective: To assess the validity of an FFQ estimates of carotenoid and vitamin E intake against serum biomarker measurements and weighed food records (WFRs), by applying the method of triads. Design: The study population was a sub-sample of adult participants in a randomised controlled trial of beta-carotene and sunscreen in the prevention of skin cancer. Dietary intake was assessed by a self-administered FFQ and a WFR. Nonfasting blood samples were collected and plasma analysed for five carotenoids (alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein, lycopene) and vitamin E. Correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the dietary methods and the validity coefficient was calculated using the method of triads. The 95% confidence intervals for the validity coefficients were estimated using bootstrap sampling. Results: The validity coefficients of the FFQ were highest for alpha-carotene (0.85) and lycopene (0.62), followed by beta- carotene (0.55) and total carotenoids (0.55), while the lowest validity coefficient was for lutein (0.19). The method of triads could not be used for b- cryptoxanthin and vitamin E, as one of the three underlying correlations was negative. Conclusions: Results were similar to other studies of validity using biomarkers and the method of triads. For many dietary factors, the upper limit of the validity coefficients was less than 0.5 and therefore only strong relationships between dietary exposure and disease will be detected.

Estimates of sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities for a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population

Sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities of a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population were estimated using a capture - mark - recapture (CMR) study and a Cormack - Jolly - Seber (CJS) modelling approach. The CMR history profiles for 954 individual turtles tagged over a 9-year period ( 1984 - 1992) were classified into three age classes ( adult, subadult, juvenile) based on somatic growth and reproductive traits. Reduced-parameter CJS models, accounting for constant survival and time-specific recapture, fitted best for all age classes. There were no significant sex-specific differences in either survival or recapture probabilities for any age class. Mean annual adult survival was estimated at 0.9482 (95% CI: 0.92 - 0.98) and was significantly higher than survival for either subadults or juveniles. Mean annual subadult survival was 0.8474 ( 95% CI: 0.79 - 0.91), which was not significantly different from mean annual juvenile survival estimated at 0.8804 ( 95% CI: 0.84 - 0.93). The time-specific adult recapture probabilities were a function of sampling effort but this was not the case for either juveniles or subadults. The sampling effort effect was accounted for explicitly in the estimation of adult survival and recapture probabilities. These are the first comprehensive sex- and age-class-specific survival and recapture probability estimates for a green sea turtle population derived from a long-term CMR program.

Costs of managing urinary and faecal incontinence in a sub-acute care facility: A "bottom-up" approach

Aims: To measure accurately the direct costs of managing urinary and faecal incontinence in the sub-acute care setting. Materials and Methods: Prospective observational study was undertaken in two sub-acute care units in a metropolitan hospital. A consecutive series of 29 consecutive patients with urinary and/or faecal incontinence, who were in-patients in a geriatric rehabilitation or subacute neurologic unit underwent routine timed voiding protocol, as per usual care. Face-to-face bedside recordings of all incontinence care, with detailed cost analysis, were undertaken. Results: A total of 3,621 occasions of continence care were costed. The median time per 24 hr spent caring for incontinence per patient was 109 min (interquartile range 88-140). Isolated urinary incontinence episodes occurred in 28 patients (96.5%), mixed urinary/faecal incontinence episodes observed in 79.3%, and episodes of pure faecal incontinence were seen in 62%. The median costs of incontinence care in the sub-acute setting was $49AU per 24 hr, the major share ($41) spent on staff wages. The incontinence tasks of toileting assistance, pad changes, bed changes and catheter care were spread evenly across the three 8 hr shifts of duty. Conclusions: As our population demographics include an increasingly greater portion of the elderly, for whom long term institutional care is becoming relatively more scarce, provision of care in the sub-acute unit that may allow rehabilitation and return to home warrants scrutiny. This is the first study that delineates the costs of managing urinary and faecal incontinence in the sub-acute care setting. Such costs are substantial and place a heavy burden upon night-time carets. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Optimal design for model discrimination and parameter estimation for itraconazole population pharmacokinetics in cystic fibrosis patients

Optimal sampling times are found for a study in which one of the primary purposes is to develop a model of the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole in patients with cystic fibrosis for both capsule and solution doses. The optimal design is expected to produce reliable estimates of population parameters for two different structural PK models. Data collected at these sampling times are also expected to provide the researchers with sufficient information to reasonably discriminate between the two competing structural models.

Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.

Phytotoxicity of surface waters of the Thames and Brisbane River Estuaries: A combined chemical analysis and bioassay approach for the comparison of two systems

The Thames Estuary, UK, and the Brisbane River, Australia, are comparable in size and catchment area. Both are representative of the large and growing number of the world's estuaries associated with major cities. Principle differences between the two systems relate to climate and human population pressures. In order to assess the potential phytotoxic impact of herbicide residues in the estuaries, surface waters were analysed with a PAM fluorometry-based bioassay that employs the photosynthetic efficiency (photosystem II quantum yield) of laboratory cultured microalgae, as an endpoint measure of phytotoxicity. In addition, surface waters were chemically analysed for a limited number of herbicides. Diuron atrazine and simazine were detected in both systems at comparable concentrations. In contrast, bioassay results revealed that whilst detected herbicides accounted for the observed phytotoxicity of Brisbane River extracts with great accuracy, they consistently explained only around 50% of the phytotoxicity induced by Thames Estuary extracts. Unaccounted for phytotoxicity in Thames surface waters is indicative of unidentified phytotoxins. The greatest phytotoxic response was measured at Charing Cross, Thames Estuary, and corresponded to a diuron equivalent concentration of 180 ng L-1. The study employs relative potencies (REP) of PSII impacting herbicides and demonstrates that chemical analysis alone is prone to omission of valuable information. Results of the study provide support for the incorporation of bioassays into routine monitoring programs where bioassay data may be used to predict and verify chemical contamination data, alert to unidentified compounds and provide the user with information regarding cumulative toxicity of complex mixtures. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.

A diffusion approach to approximating preservation probabilities for gene duplicates

Consider a haploid population and, within its genome, a gene whose presence is vital for the survival of any individual. Each copy of this gene is subject to mutations which destroy its function. Suppose one member of the population somehow acquires a duplicate copy of the gene, where the duplicate is fully linked to the original gene's locus. Preservation is said to occur if eventually the entire population consists of individuals descended from this one which initially carried the duplicate. The system is modelled by a finite state-space Markov process which in turn is approximated by a diffusion process, whence an explicit expression for the probability of preservation is derived. The event of preservation can be compared to the fixation of a selectively neutral gene variant initially present in a single individual, the probability of which is the reciprocal of the population size. For very weak mutation, this and the probability of preservation are equal, while as mutation becomes stronger, the preservation probability tends to double this reciprocal. This is in excellent agreement with simulation studies.

Population pharmacokinetics of itraconazole and its active metabolite hydroxy-itraconazole in paediatric cystic fibrosis and bone marrow transplant patients

Objective: The objective of the study was to characterise the population pharmacokinetic properties of itraconazole and its active metabolite hydroxyitraconazole in a representative paediatric population of cystic fibrosis and bone marrow transplant (BMT) patients and to identify patient characteristics influencing the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole. The ultimate goals were to determine the relative bioavailability between the two oral formulations (capsules vs oral solution) and to optimise dosing regimens in these patients. Methods: All paediatric patients with cystic fibrosis or patients undergoing BMT at The Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia, who were prescribed oral itraconazole for the treatment of allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (cystic fibrosis patients) or for prophylaxis of any fungal infection (BMT patients) were eligible for the study. Blood samples were taken from the recruited patients as per an empirical sampling design either during hospitalisation or during outpatient clinic visits. ltraconazole and hydroxy-itraconazole plasma concentrations were determined by a validated high-performance liquid chromatography assay with fluorometric detection. A nonlinear mixed-effect modelling approach using the NONMEM software to simultaneously describe the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole and its metabolite. Results: A one-compartment model with first-order absorption described the itraconazole data, and the metabolism of the parent drug to hydroxy-itraconazole was described by a first-order rate constant. The metabolite data also showed one-compartment characteristics with linear elimination. For itraconazole the apparent clearance (CLitraconazole) was 35.5 L/hour, the apparent volume of distribution (V-d(itraconazole)) was 672L, the absorption rate constant for the capsule formulation was 0.0901 h(-1) and for the oral solution formulation was 0.96 h-1. The lag time was estimated to be 19.1 minutes and the relative bioavailability between capsules and oral solution (F-rel) was 0.55. For the metabolite, volume of distribution, V-m/(F (.) f(m)), and clearance, CL/(F (.) fm), were 10.6L and 5.28 L/h, respectively. The influence of total bodyweight was significant, added as a covariate on CLitraconazoie/F and V-d(itraconazole)/F (standardised to a 70kg person) using allometric three-quarter power scaling on CLitraconazole/F, which therefore reflected adult values. The unexplained between-subject variability (coefficient of variation %) was 68.7%, 75.8%, 73.4% and 61.1% for CLitraconazoie/F, Vd(itraconazole)/F, CLm/(F (.) fm) and F-rel, respectively. The correlation between random effects of CLitraconazole and Vd((itraconazole)) was 0.69. Conclusion: The developed population pharmacokinetic model adequately described the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole and its active metabolite, hydroxy-itraconazole, in paediatric patients with either cystic fibrosis or undergoing BMT. More appropriate dosing schedules have been developed for the oral solution and the capsules to secure a minimum therapeutic trough plasma concentration of 0.5 mg/L for these patients.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.