Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets

In this paper, we focus on the tails of the unconditional distribution of Latin American emerging markets stock returns. We explore their implications for portfolio diversification according to the safety tirst principIe, tirst proposed by Roy (1952). We tind that the Latin American emerging markets have signiticantly fatter tails than industrial markets. especially, the lower tail of the distrihution. We consider the implication of the safety tirst principIe for a U .S. investor who creates a diversitied portfolio using Latin American stock markets. We tind that a U.S. investor gains by adding Latin American equity markets to her purely domestic portfolio. For different parameter specitications. we finu a more realistic asset allocation than the one suggested by the Iiterature haseu on the traditional mean-variance framework.

Common factors in Latin America's business cycles

This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external trade, fiscal and financial variables. The analysis spans the 135 years since the insertion of these economies into the global economy in the 1870s. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cyc1e chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that ali four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cyc1e volatility and persistence relative to advanced country benchmarks. Volatility changed considerably over time, however, being very high during early formative decades through the Great Depression, and again during the 1970s and ear1y 1980s, before declining sharply in three of the four countries. We also identify a sizeable common factor across the four economies which variance decompositions ascribe mostly to foreign interest rates and shocks to commodity terms of trade.

Analysis of the economic and financial relations between Latin American and the Caribbean and the BRICS group

This document has been prepared in compliance with Activity III.1.2 of the Work Programme of SELA for the year 2015, entitled “Analysis of the economic and financial relations between Latin America and the Caribbean and the BRICS countries”. The document comprises an introduction, four chapters and a final section with the conclusions and recommendations stemming from the study. Chapter I describes the economic performance of the BRICS countries, their economic relations with Latin America and the Caribbean and the functioning of the development banks of the member countries. Chapter II assesses the financial architecture of Latin America and the Caribbean and explores the needs for financing in the region. Chapter III deals with the regulatory frameworks governing public and private investments in Latin America and the Caribbean and the Bilateral Investment Treaties with the BRICS countries. Finally, Chapter IV describes the main features of the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingent Reserve Agreement of the BRICS

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Why has productivity growth stagnated in most Latin American countries since the neo-liberal reforms?

Latin America’s economic performance since the beginning of neo-liberal reforms has been poor; this not only contrasts with its own performance pre-1980, but also with what has happened in Asia since 1980. I shall argue that the weakness of the region’s new paradigm is rooted as much in its intrinsic flaws as in the particular way it has been implemented. Latin America’s economic reforms were undertaken primarily as a result of the perceived economic weaknesses of the region — i.e., there was an attitude of ‘throwing in the towel’ vis-à-vis the previous state-led import substituting industrialisation strategy, because most politicians and economists interpreted the 1982 debt crisis as conclusive evidence that it had led the region into a cul-de-sac. As Hirschman has argued, policymaking has a strong component of ‘path-dependency’; as a result, people often stick with policies after they have achieved their aims, and those policies have become counterproductive. This leads to such frustration and disappointment with existing policies and institutions that is not uncommon to experience a ‘rebound effect’. An extreme example of this phenomenon is post-1982 Latin America, where the core of the discourse of the economic reforms that followed ended up simply emphasising the need to reverse as many aspects of the previous development (and political) strategies as possible. This helps to explain the peculiar set of priorities, the rigidity and the messianic attitude with which the reforms were implemented in Latin America, as well as their poor outcome. Something very different happened in Asia, where economic reforms were often intended (rightly or wrongly) as a more targeted and pragmatic mechanism to overcome specific economic and financial constraints. Instead of implementing reforms as a mechanism to reverse existing industrialisation strategies, in Asia they were put into practice in order to continue and strengthen ambitious processes of industrialisation.

Metabolic syndrome in postmenopausal women: higher prevalence in the Northeastern Region of Brazil than in other Latin American countries and the influence of obesity and socioeconomic factors

SILVEIRA, Inavan Lopes da; MARANHÃO, T. M. O.; AZEVEDO, George Dantas. Metabolic syndrome in postmenopausal women: higher prevalence in the Northeastern Region of Brazil than in other Latin American countries and the influence of obesity and socioeconomic factors. Climacteric (Carnforth), v.10, p.438-439, 2007.

Strategies to promote farm animal welfare in Latin America and their effects on carcass and meat quality traits

Several initiatives, including research and development, increasing stakeholders' awareness and application of legislation and recommendation, have been carried out in Latin America to promote animal welfare and meat quality. Most activities focused on the impact of pre-slaughter conditions (facilities, equipment and handling procedures) on animal welfare and meat quality. The results are encouraging; data from Brazil, Chile and Uruguay showed that the application of the improved pre-slaughter handling practices reduced aggressive handling and the incidence of bruised carcasses at slaughter in cattle and pigs. These outcomes stimulated some to apply animal welfare concepts in livestock handling within the meat production chain as shown by the increasing demand for personnel training on the best. To attend this demand is important to expand local studies on farm animal welfare and to set up (or maintain) an efficient system for knowledge transfer to all stakeholders in the Latin America meat production chains. However, it is clear that to promote the long-term progress in this field is important to deliver practical solutions, assuring that they match the technical and financial conditions of those who are the target of training programs. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Divergence Between Sympatric Rice- and Maize-Infecting Populations of Rhizoctonia solani AG-1 IA from Latin America

The basidiomycetous fungus, Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group (AG)-1 IA is a major pathogen in Latin America causing sheath blight (SB) of rice Particularly in Venezuela. the fungus also Causes banded leaf and sheath blight (BLSB) oil maize, which is considered all emerging disease problem where maize replaced traditional rice-cropping areas or is now planted in adjacent. fields Our goals in this study Were 10 elucidate (i) the effects of host specialization on gene flow between sympatric and allopatric rice and maize-infecting fungal populations and (ii) the reproductive mode of the fungus, looking for evidence of recombination in total, 375 isolates of R. solani AG1 IA sampled from three sympatric rice and maize fields in Venezuela (Porutuguesa State) and two allopatric rice fields from Colombia (Meta State) and Panama (Chiriqui State) were genotyped Using, 10 microsatellite loci Allopatric populations from Venezuela. Colombia. and Panama were significantly differentiated (Phi(ST), of 0 16 to 0 34). Partitioning of the genetic diversity indicated differentiation between sympatric populations from different host species, with 17% of the total genetic variation distributed between hosts while only 3 to 6% wits distributed geographically among the sympatric Venezuelan Fields We detected symmetrical historical migration between the rice- and the maize-infecting populations from Venezuela Rice- and maize-derived isolates were able to infect built rice and maize but were more aggressive Oil their original hosts, consistent with host specialization. Because the maize- and rice-infecting populations are still cross-pathogenic, we postulate that the genetic differentiation was relatively recent and mediated via a host shift. An isolation with nu.-ration analysis indicated that the maize-infecting population diverged from the rice-infecting population between 40 and 240 years ago Our findings also suggest that maize-infecting Populations have a mainly recombining reproductive system whereas the rice-infecting Populations have a Mixed reproductive system in Latin America

Peritonitis in Latin America

Peritoneal dialysis has a high acceptance rate in Latin America, thus the knowledge concerning complication patterns is of great relevance. This work reviews Latin American data on peritonitis, the most serious complication of peritoneal dialysis.The incidence of peritonitis has been reduced over time, concomitantly with the incorporation of safer exchange systems and the use of prophylactic measurements. Today, rates tower than 1 episode per 24 patient-months are commonly reported. Furthermore, changes in causative organisms have been observed, with predominance of Staphylococcus aureus up through the mid-1990s, as welt as increases in coagulase-negative staphylococcus and participation of gram negatives. However, the prevalence of S. aureus is still high, due possibly to climatic conditions and the elevated prevalence of carriers. Resolution rate varies from 55% to 78%, transfer to hemodialysis from 10.9% to 15.4%, and death in 3% to 9.9% of cases. Outcome is worse in S. aureus episodes compared to those with coagulase-negative staphylococcus, despite the higher percentage of oxacillin-resistant strains among the former. In general, despite socioeconomic or climatic conditions, our results are similar to those in developed countries, perhaps as a consequence of technological improvements and/or center expertise.

Prevalence of dementia in Latin America: a collaborative study of population-based cohorts

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)