The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones

A climatology of extratropical cyclones is produced using an objective method of identifying cyclones based on gradients of 1-km height wet-bulb potential temperature. Cyclone track and genesis density statistics are analyzed and this method is found to compare well with other cyclone identification methods. The North Atlantic storm track is reproduced along with the major regions of genesis. Cyclones are grouped according to their genesis location and the corresponding lysis regions are identified. Most of the cyclones that cross western Europe originate in the east Atlantic where the baroclinicity and the sea surface temperature gradients are weak compared to the west Atlantic. East Atlantic cyclones also have higher 1-km height relative vorticity and lower mean sea level pressure at their genesis point than west Atlantic cyclones. This is consistent with the hypothesis that they are secondary cyclones developing on the trailing fronts of preexisting “parent” cyclones. The evolution characteristics of composite west and east Atlantic cyclones have been compared. The ratio of their upper- to lower-level forcing indicates that type B cyclones are predominant in both the west and east Atlantic, with strong upper- and lower-level features. Among the remaining cyclones, there is a higher proportion of type C cyclones in the east Atlantic, whereas types A and C are equally frequent in the west Atlantic.

Layers of nocturnal insect migrants at high-altitude: the influence of atmospheric conditions on their formation

1 Radar studies of nocturnal insect migration have often found that the migrants tend to form well-defined horizontal layers at a particular altitude. 2 In previous short-term studies, nocturnal layers were usually observed to occur at the same altitude as certain meteorological features, most notably at the altitudes of temperature inversions or nocturnal wind jets. 3 Statistical analyses are presented of four years’ data that compared the presence, sharpness and duration of nocturnal layer profiles (observed using continuously-operating entomological radar) with meteorological variables at typical layer altitudes over the UK. 4 Analysis of these large datasets demonstrated that temperature was the foremost meteorological factor persistently associated with the presence and formation of longer-lasting and sharper layers of migrating insects over southern UK.

Perturbation growth at the convective scale for CSIP IOP18

The Met Office Unified Model is run for a case observed during Intensive Observation Period 18 (IOP18) of the Convective Storms Initiation Project (CSIP). The aims are to identify the physical processes that lead to perturbation growth at the convective scale in response to model-state perturbations and to determine their sensitivity to the character of the perturbations. The case is strongly upper-level forced but with detailed mesoscale/convective-scale evolution that is dependent on smaller-scale processes. Potential temperature is perturbed within the boundary layer. The effects on perturbation growth of both the amplitude and typical scalelength of the perturbations are investigated and perturbations are applied either sequentially (every 30 min throughout the simulation) or at specific times. The direct effects (within one timestep) of the perturbations are to generate propagating Lamb and acoustic waves and produce generally small changes in cloud parameters and convective instability. In exceptional cases a perturbation at a specific gridpoint leads to switching of the diagnosed boundary-layer type or discontinuous changes in convective instability, through the generation or removal of a lid. The indirect effects (during the entire simulation) are changes in the intensity and location of precipitation and in the cloud size distribution. Qualitatively different behaviour is found for strong (1K amplitude) and weak (0.01K amplitude) perturbations, with faster growth after sunrise found only for the weaker perturbations. However, the overall perturbation growth (as measured by the root-mean-square error of accumulated precipitation) reaches similar values at saturation, regardless of the perturbation characterisation.

On the dependence of boundary-layer ventilation on frontal type

Case study simulations with idealized tracers have been used to determine the relationship between the dynamics and conceptual representations of different midlatitude frontal systems and the amount, distribution, and time scale of boundary layer ventilation by these systems. The key features of ventilation by a kata– and ana–cold frontal system are found to be quantitatively and also often qualitatively similar to the main ventilation pathways, which are the conveyor belts, cloud head, and other convection. The conveyor belts and cloud head occur within cloud, implying that they can be identified using satellite imagery. Differences in the transport by the two systems can be related to their conceptual representations and include a sensitive dependence on the diurnal cycle for the kata- but not the ana-cold frontal case.

Strategy clusters and sources of knowledge in French L2 listening comprehension

This article reports on an exploratory investigation into the listening strategies of lower-intermediate learners of French as an L2, including the sources of knowledge they employed in order to comprehend spoken French. Data from 14 learners were analysed to investigate whether employment of strategies in general and sources of knowledge in particular varied according to the underlying linguistic knowledge of the student. While low linguistic knowledge learners were less likely to deploy effectively certain strategies or strategy clusters, high linguistic knowledge levels were not always associated with effective strategy use. Similarly, while there was an association between linguistic knowledge and learners’ ability to draw on more than one source of knowledge in a facilitative manner, there was also evidence that learners tended to over-rely on linguistic knowledge where other sources, such as world knowledge, would have proved facilitative. We conclude by arguing for a fresh approach to listening pedagogy and research, including strategy instruction, bottom-up skill development and a consideration of the role of linguistic knowledge in strategy use.

Can 4D-Var use dynamical information from targeted observations of a baroclinic structure?

Targeted observations are generally taken in regions of high baroclinicity, but often show little impact. One plausible explanation is that important dynamical information, such as upshear tilt, is not extracted from the targeted observations by the data assimilation scheme and used to correct initial condition error. This is investigated by generating pseudo targeted observations which contain a singular vector (SV) structure that is not present in the background field or routine observations, i.e. assuming that the background has an initial condition error with tilted growing structure. Experiments were performed for a single case-study with varying numbers of pseudo targeted observations. These were assimilated by the Met Office four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation scheme, which uses a 6 h window for observations and background-error covariances calculated using the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) method. The forecasts were run using the operational Met Office Unified Model on a 24 km grid. The results presented clearly demonstrate that a 6 h window 4D-Var system is capable of extracting baroclinic information from a limited set of observations and using it to correct initial condition error. To capture the SV structure well (projection of 0.72 in total energy), 50 sondes over an area of 1×106 km2 were required. When the SV was represented by only eight sondes along an example targeting flight track covering a smaller area, the projection onto the SV structure was lower; the resulting forecast perturbations showed an SV structure with increased tilt and reduced initial energy. The total energy contained in the perturbations decreased as the SV structure was less well described by the set of observations (i.e. as fewer pseudo observations were assimilated). The assimilated perturbation had lower energy than the SV unless the pseudo observations were assimilated with the dropsonde observation errors halved from operational values. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Horizontal potential vorticity dipoles on the convective storm scale

The structure and dynamics of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies generated by convective storms is investigated both theoretically and in a numerical model case study. Linear theory suggests that if the storm-induced heating is on a sufficiently small scale (relative to the Rossby radius of deformation), and the environment contains moderate vertical wind shear (of order 1 m s(-1) km(-1)), then the dominant mode of a diabatically generated PV anomaly is a horizontally oriented dipole. The horizontal dipoles are typically of O(10 PVU), compared with the O(1 PVU) vertical dipoles that have been studied extensively throughout the literature. Furthermore, the horizontal PV dipoles are realized almost entirely as relative vorticity anomalies (on a time-scale of the order of tens of minutes after the heating has been turned on). The analysis of horizontal PV dipoles offers a new perspective on the vorticity dynamics of individual convective cells, implying that moist processes play a role in the maintenance of vertical vorticity in the convective storm environment.

The dynamics of a polar low assessed using potential vorticity inversion

The dynamics of a polar low are examined using a piecewise potential vorticity (PV) inversion method. In previous studies of this and other polar lows, structural evolution has been described in terms of regions of anomalous PV. In this study the relative importance of different PV anomalies and the interactions between them have been quantified using PV diagnostics. The intensification of the polar low occurred in three stages (in contrast to previous studies of polar lows that have only identified two stages). The dynamical characteristics of stages one and two are consistent with the proposed type C cyclogenesis mechanism. A diabatically-generated lower-tropospheric PV anomaly dominated intensification after initial triggering by a positive upper-level PV anomaly. A phase tilt between the upper and lower levels was maintained through retardation of the positive upper-level anomaly by the effects of latent heat release. Stage three was a period of growth dominated by wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE), which contributed at least 18% to the amplitude of the mature surface polar low.

Synoptic controls on boundary-layer characteristics

We report the characteristics of the three-dimensional, time evolving, atmospheric boundary layer that develops beneath an idealised, dry, baroclinic weather system. The boundary-layer structure is forced by thermal advection associated with the weather system. Large positive heat fluxes behind the cold front drive a vigorous convective boundary layer, whereas moderate negative heat fluxes in the warm sector between the cold and warm fronts generate shallow, stably stratified or neutral boundary layers. The forcing of the boundary-layer structure is quantified by forming an Eulerian mass budget integrated over the depth of the boundary layer. The mass budget indicates that tropospheric air is entrained into the boundary layer both in the vicinity of the high-pressure centre, and behind the cold front. It is then transported horizontally within the boundary layer and converges towards the cyclone's warm sector, whence it is ventilated out into the troposphere. This cycling of air is likely to be important for the ventilation of pollution out of the boundary layer, and for the transformation of the properties of large-scale air masses.

Categorisation of synoptic environments associated with mesoscale convective systems over the UK

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are relatively rare events in the UK but, when they do occur, can be associated with weather that is considered extreme with respect to climatology (as indicated by the number of such events that have been analysed as case studies). These case studies usually associate UK MCSs with a synoptic environment known as the Spanish plume. Here a previously published 17 year climatology of UK MCS events is extended to the present day (from 1998 to 2008) and these events classified according to the synoptic environment in which they form. Three distinct synoptic environments have been identified, here termed the classical Spanish plume, modified Spanish plume, and European easterly plume. Detailed case studies of the two latter, newly defined, environments are presented. Composites produced for each environment further reveal the differences between them. The classical Spanish plume is associated with an eastward propagating baroclinic cyclone that evolves according to idealised life cycle 1. Conditional instability is released from a warm moist plume of air advected northeastwards from Iberia that is capped by warmer, but very dry air, from the Spanish plateau. The modified Spanish plume is associated with a slowly moving mature frontal system associated with a forward tilting trough (and possibly cut-off low) at 500 hPa that evolves according to idealised life cycle 2. As in the classical Spanish plume, conditional instability is released from a warm plume of air advected northwards from Iberia. The less frequent European easterly plume is associated with an omega block centred over Scandinavia at upper levels. Conditional instability is released from a warm plume of air advected westwards across northern continental Europe. Unlike the Spanish plume environments, the European easterly plume is not a warm sector phenomena associated with a baroclinic cyclone. However, in all environments the organisation of convection is associated with the interaction of an upper-level disturbance with a low-level region of warm advection.

CISK or WISHE as the mechanism for tropical cyclone intensification

Examination of conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) and wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE), two proposed mechanisms for tropical cyclone and polar low intensification, suggests that the sensitivity of the intensification rate of these disturbances to surface properties, such as surface friction and moisture supply, will be different for the two mechanisms. These sensitivities were examined by perturbing the surface characteristics in a numerical model with explicit convection. The intensification rate was found to have a strong positive dependence on the heat and moisture transfer coefficients, while remaining largely insensitive to the frictional drag coefficient. CISK does not predict the observed dependence of vortex intensification rate on the heat and moisture transfer coefficients, nor the insensitivity to the frictional drag coefficient since it anticipates that intensification rate is controlled by frictional convergence in the boundary layer. Since neither conditional instability nor boundary moisture content showed any significant sensitivity to the transfer coefficients, this is true of CISK using both the convective closures of Ooyama and of Charney and Eliassen. In comparison, the WISHE intensification mechanism does predict the observed increase in intensification rate with heat and moisture transfer coefficients, while not anticipating a direct influence from surface friction.

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows is developed using a minimal set of physical assumptions. These disturbances are assumed to be balanced systems intensifying through the WISHE (Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange) intensification mechanism, driven by surface fluxes of heat and moisture into an atmosphere which is neutral to moist convection. The equation set is linearized about a resting basic state and solved as an initial-value problem. A system is predicted to intensify with an exponential perturbation growth rate scaled by the radial gradient of an efficiency parameter which crudely represents the effects of unsaturated processes. The form of this efficiency parameter is assumed to be defined by initial conditions, dependent on the nature of a pre-existing vortex required to precondition the atmosphere to a state in which the vortex can intensify. Evaluation of the simple model using a primitive-equation, nonlinear numerical model provides support for the prediction of exponential perturbation growth. Good agreement is found between the simple and numerical models for the sensitivities of the measured growth rate to various parameters, including surface roughness, the rate of transfer of heat and moisture from the ocean surface, and the scale for the growing vortex.

Analysis of the eyes formed in simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows

The structure and size of the eyes generated in numerically simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows have been studied. A primitive-equation numerical model simulated systems in which the structures of the eyes formed were consistent with available observations. Whilst the tropical cyclone eyes generated were usually rapidly rotating, it appeared impossible for an eye formed in a system with a polar environment to develop this type of structure. The polar low eyes were found to be unable to warm through the subsidence of air with high values of potential temperature, as the environment was approximately statically neutral. Factors affecting the size of the eye were investigated through a series of controlled experiments. In mature tropical cyclone systems the size of the eye was insensitive to small changes in initial conditions, surface friction and latent and sensible heating from the ocean. In contrast, the eye size was strongly dependent on these parameters in the mature polar lows. Consistent with the findings, a mechanism is proposed in which the size of the eye in simulated polar lows is controlled by the strength of subsidence within it.

Parcel theory in three dimensions and the calculation of SCAPE

Slantwise convective available potential energy (SCAPE) is a measure of the degree to which the atmosphere is unstable to conditional symmetric instability (CSI). It has, until now, been defined by parcel theory in which the atmosphere is assumed to be nonevolving and balanced, that is, two-dimensional. When applying this two-dimensional theory to three-dimensional evolving flows, these assumptions can be interpreted as an implicit assumption that a timescale separation exists between a relatively rapid timescale for slantwise ascent and a slower timescale for the development of the system. An approximate extension of parcel theory to three dimensions is derived and it is shown that calculations of SCAPE based on the assumption of relatively rapid slantwise ascent can be qualitatively in error. For a case study example of a developing extratropical cyclone, SCAPE calculated along trajectories determined without assuming the existence of the timescale separation show large SCAPE values for parcels ascending from the warm sector and along the warm front. These parcels ascend into the cloud head within which there is some evidence consistent with the release of CSI from observational and model cross sections. This region of high SCAPE was not found for calculations along the relatively rapidly ascending trajectories determined by assuming the existence of the timescale separation.

Quantifying mesoscale variability in ocean transient tracer fields

A powerful way to test the realism of ocean general circulation models is to systematically compare observations of passive tracer concentration with model predictions. The general circulation models used in this way cannot resolve a full range of vigorous mesoscale activity (on length scales between 10–100 km). In the real ocean, however, this activity causes important variability in tracer fields. Thus, in order to rationally compare tracer observations with model predictions these unresolved fluctuations (the model variability error) must be estimated. We have analyzed this variability using an eddy‐resolving reduced‐gravity model in a simple midlatitude double‐gyre configuration. We find that the wave number spectrum of tracer variance is only weakly sensitive to the distribution of (large scale slowly varying) tracer sources and sinks. This suggests that a universal passive tracer spectrum may exist in the ocean. We estimate the spectral shape using high‐resolution measurements of potential temperature on an isopycnal in the upper northeast Atlantic Ocean, finding a slope near k −1.7 between 10 and 500 km. The typical magnitude of the variance is estimated by comparing tracer simulations using different resolutions. For CFC‐ and tritium‐type transient tracers the peak magnitude of the model variability saturation error may reach 0.20 for scales shorter than 100 km. This is of the same order as the time mean saturation itself and well over an order of magnitude greater than the instrumental uncertainty.