A prognostic score to identify low-risk outpatients with acute deep vein thrombosis in the upper extremity.

BACKGROUND: No studies have identified which patients with upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) are at low risk for adverse events within the first week of therapy. METHODS: We used data from Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to explore in patients with upper-extremity DVT a prognostic score that correctly identified patients with lower limb DVT at low risk for pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, or death within the first week. RESULTS: As of December 2014, 1135 outpatients with upper-extremity DVT were recruited. Of these, 515 (45%) were treated at home. During the first week, three patients (0.26%) experienced pulmonary embolism, two (0.18%) had major bleeding, and four (0.35%) died. We assigned 1 point to patients with chronic heart failure, creatinine clearance levels 30-60 mL min(-1) , recent bleeding, abnormal platelet count, recent immobility, or cancer without metastases; 2 points to those with metastatic cancer; and 3 points to those with creatinine clearance levels < 30 mL min(-1) . Overall, 759 (67%) patients scored ≤ 1 point and were considered to be at low risk. The rate of the composite outcome within the first week was 0.26% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.004-0.87) in patients at low risk and 1.86% (95% CI 0.81-3.68) in the remaining patients. C-statistics was 0.73 (95% CI 0.57-0.88). Net reclassification improvement was 22%, and integrated discrimination improvement was 0.0055. CONCLUSIONS: Using six easily available variables, we identified outpatients with upper-extremity DVT at low risk for adverse events within the first week. These data may help to safely treat more patients at home.

Identification of Low-Risk Patients with Acute Symptomatic Pulmonary Embolism for Outpatient Therapy.

RATIONALE: Patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) deemed to be at low risk for early complications might be candidates for partial or complete outpatient treatment. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a clinical prediction rule that accurately identifies patients with PE and low risk of short-term complications and to compare its prognostic ability with two previously validated models (i.e., the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index [PESI] and the Simplified PESI [sPESI]) METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression of a large international cohort of patients with PE prospectively enrolled in the RIETE (Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica) registry. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: All-cause mortality, recurrent PE, and major bleeding up to 10 days after PE diagnosis were determined. Of 18,707 eligible patients with acute symptomatic PE, 46 (0.25%) developed recurrent PE, 203 (1.09%) bled, and 471 (2.51%) died. Predictors included in the final model were chronic heart failure, recent immobilization, recent major bleeding, cancer, hypotension, tachycardia, hypoxemia, renal insufficiency, and abnormal platelet count. The area under receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.78) for the RIETE score, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73) for PESI (P < 0.05), and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.73) for sPESI (P < 0.05). Our RIETE score outperformed the prognostic value of PESI in terms of net reclassification improvement (P < 0.001), integrated discrimination improvement (P < 0.001), and sPESI (net reclassification improvement, P < 0.001; integrated discrimination improvement, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We built a new score, based on widely available variables, that can be used to identify patients with PE at low risk of short-term complications, assisting in triage and potentially shortening duration of hospital stay.

Prognostic value of PCSK9 levels in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

AIMS: Proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin 9 (PCSK9) is an emerging target for the treatment of hypercholesterolaemia, but the clinical utility of PCSK9 levels to guide treatment is unknown. We aimed to prospectively assess the prognostic value of plasma PCSK9 levels in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma PCSK9 levels were measured in 2030 ACS patients undergoing coronary angiography in a Swiss prospective cohort. At 1 year, the association between PCSK9 tertiles and all-cause death was assessed adjusting for the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) variables, as well as the achievement of LDL cholesterol targets of <1.8 mmol/L. Patients with higher PCSK9 levels at angiography were more likely to have clinical familial hypercholesterolaemia (rate ratio, RR 1.21, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.09-1.53), be treated with lipid-lowering therapy (RR 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.63), present with longer time interval of chest pain (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.09-1.53) and higher C-reactive protein levels (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16-1.30). PCSK9 increased 12-24 h after ACS (374 ± 149 vs. 323 ± 134 ng/mL, P < 0.001). At 1 year follow-up, HRs for upper vs. lower PCSK9-level tertiles were 1.13 (95% CI 0.69-1.85) for all-cause death and remained similar after adjustment for the GRACE score. Patients with higher PCSK9 levels were less likely to reach the recommended LDL cholesterol targets (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.66-0.99). CONCLUSION: In ACS patients, high initial PCSK9 plasma levels were associated with inflammation in the acute phase and hypercholesterolaemia, but did not predict mortality at 1 year.

Prognostic factors for progression-free and overall survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

BACKGROUND: Biliary tract cancer is an uncommon cancer with a poor outcome. We assembled data from the National Cancer Research Institute (UK) ABC-02 study and 10 international studies to determine prognostic outcome characteristics for patients with advanced disease. METHODS: Multivariable analyses of the final dataset from the ABC-02 study were carried out. All variables were simultaneously included in a Cox proportional hazards model, and backward elimination was used to produce the final model (using a significance level of 10%), in which the selected variables were associated independently with outcome. This score was validated externally by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis using the independent international dataset. RESULTS: A total of 410 patients were included from the ABC-02 study and 753 from the international dataset. An overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) Cox model was derived from the ABC-02 study. White blood cells, haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, neutrophils, gender, and performance status were considered prognostic for survival (all with P < 0.10). Patients with metastatic disease {hazard ratio (HR) 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.02]} and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) 2 had worse survival [HR 2.24 (95% CI 1.53-3.28)]. In a dataset restricted to patients who received cisplatin and gemcitabine with ECOG PS 0 and 1, only haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, and neutrophils were associated with PFS and OS. ROC analysis suggested the models generated from the ABC-02 study had a limited prognostic value [6-month PFS: area under the curve (AUC) 62% (95% CI 57-68); 1-year OS: AUC 64% (95% CI 58-69)]. CONCLUSION: These data propose a set of prognostic criteria for outcome in advanced biliary tract cancer derived from the ABC-02 study that are validated in an international dataset. Although these findings establish the benchmark for the prognostic evaluation of patients with ABC and confirm the value of longheld clinical observations, the ability of the model to correctly predict prognosis is limited and needs to be improved through identification of additional clinical and molecular markers.

Prognostic Importance of the Cuse of Renal Failure in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic value of the different causes of renal failure in cirrhosis is not well established. This study investigated the predictive value of the cause of renal failure in cirrhosis. METHODS: Five hundred sixty-two consecutive patients with cirrhosis and renal failure (as defined by serum creatinine 1.5 mg/dL on 2 successive determinations within 48 hours) hospitalized over a 6-year period in a single institution were included in a prospective study. The cause of renal failure was classified into 4 groups: renal failure associated with bacterial infections, renal failure associated with volume depletion, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and parenchymal nephropathy. The primary end point was survival at 3 months. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-three patients (82.4%) had renal failure that could be classified in 1 of 4 groups. The most frequent was renal failure associated with infections (213 cases; 46%), followed by hypovolemia-associated renal failure (149; 32%), HRS (60; 13%), and parenchymal nephropathy (41; 9%). The remaining patients had a combination of causes or miscellaneous conditions. Prognosis was markedly different according to cause of renal failure, 3-month probability of survival being 73% for parenchymal nephropathy, 46% for hypovolemia-associated renal failure, 31% for renal failure associated with infections, and 15% for HRS (P .0005). In a multivariate analysis adjusted for potentially confounding variables, cause of renal failure was independently associated with prognosis, together with MELD score, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy at time of diagnosis of renal failure. CONCLUSIONS: A simple classification of patients with cirrhosis according to cause of renal failure is useful in assessment of prognosis and may help in decision making in liver transplantation.

[(18)F]FDG-PET/CT metabolic parameters as useful prognostic factors in cervical cancer patients treated with chemo-radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: To compare the prognostic value of different anatomical and functional metabolic parameters determined using [(18)F]FDG-PET/CT with other clinical and pathological prognostic parameters in cervical cancer (CC). METHODS: Thirty-eight patients treated with standard curative doses of chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) underwent pre- and post-therapy [(18)F]FDG-PET/CT. [(18)F]FDG-PET/CT parameters including mean tumor standardized uptake values (SUV), metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and tumor glycolytic volume (TGV) were measured before the start of CRT. The post-treatment tumor metabolic response was evaluated. These parameters were compared to other clinical prognostic factors. Survival curves were estimated by using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression analysis was performed to determine the independent contribution of each prognostic factor. RESULTS: After 37 months of median follow-up (range, 12-106), overall survival (OS) was 71 % [95 % confidence interval (CI), 54-88], disease-free survival (DFS) 61 % [95 % CI, 44-78] and loco-regional control (LRC) 76 % [95 % CI, 62-90]. In univariate analyses the [(18)F]FDG-PET/CT parameters unfavorably influencing OS, DFS and LRC were pre-treatment TGV-cutoff ≥562 (37 vs. 76 %, p = 0.01; 33 vs. 70 %, p = 0.002; and 55 vs. 83 %, p = 0.005, respectively), mean pre-treatment tumor SUV cutoff ≥5 (57 vs. 86 %, p = 0.03; 36 vs. 88 %, p = 0.004; 65 vs. 88 %, p = 0.04, respectively) and a partial tumor metabolic response after treatment (9 vs. 29 %, p = 0.0008; 0 vs. 83 %, p < 0.0001; 22 vs. 96 %, p < 0.0001, respectively). After multivariate analyses a partial tumor metabolic response after treatment remained as an independent prognostic factor unfavorably influencing DFS and LRC (RR 1:7.7, p < 0.0001, and RR 1:22.6, p = 0.0003, respectively) while the pre-treatment TGV-cutoff ≥562 negatively influenced OS and DFS (RR 1:2, p = 0.03, and RR 1:2.75, p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Parameters capturing the pre-treatment glycolytic volume and metabolic activity of [(18)F]FDG-positive disease provide important prognostic information in patients with CC treated with CRT. The post-therapy [(18)F]FDG-PET/CT uptake (partial tumor metabolic response) is predictive of disease outcome.

Trajectory and predictors of quality of life in first episode psychotic mania.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the trajectory of quality of life (QoL) following a first episode of psychotic mania in bipolar disorder (BD). This 18-month longitudinal study investigated the trajectory of QoL, and the influence of premorbid adjustment and symptoms on 18-month QoL in a cohort of young people experiencing a first episode of psychotic mania. METHODS: As part of an overarching clinical trial, at baseline, sixty participants presenting with a first episode of psychotic mania (BD Type 1 - DSM-IV) completed symptomatic and functional assessments in addition to the Premorbid Adjustment Scale - General Subscale. Symptom measures were repeated at 18-month follow up. QoL was rated using the Quality of Life Scale (QLS) at designated time points. RESULTS: Mean QLS scores at initial measurement (8 weeks) were 61% of the maximum possible score, increasing significantly to 70% at 12 months, and 71.2% at 18-month follow-up. Premorbid adjustment and 18-month depressive symptoms were significantly associated with QoL at 18-month follow-up. LIMITATIONS: Study limitations include the small sample size, inclusion of participants with psychotic mania only, use of measures originally designed for use with schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and lack of premorbid or baseline measurement of QoL. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that QoL can be maintained early in BD, and reinforce the importance of assertively treating depressive symptoms throughout the course of this disorder. The emergence of a link between premorbid adjustment and poorer QoL in this cohort highlights the importance of assessing facets of adjustment when planning psychological interventions.

Prognostic value of baseline total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV0) measured on FDG-PET/CT in patients with peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL).

BACKGROUND: Most peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) patients have a poor outcome and the identification of prognostic factors at diagnosis is needed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The prognostic impact of total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV0), measured on baseline [(18)F]2-fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography, was evaluated in a retrospective study including 108 PTCL patients (27 PTCL not otherwise specified, 43 angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphomas and 38 anaplastic large-cell lymphomas). All received anthracycline-based chemotherapy. TMTV0 was computed with the 41% maximum standardized uptake value threshold method and an optimal cut-off point for binary outcomes was determined and compared with others prognostic factors. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 23 months, 2-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 49% and 2-year overall survival (OS) was 67%. High TMTV0 was significantly associated with a worse prognosis. At 2 years, PFS was 26% in patients with a high TMTV0 (>230 cm(3), n = 53) versus 71% for those with a low TMTV0, [P < 0.0001, hazard ratio (HR) = 4], whereas OS was 50% versus 80%, respectively, (P = 0.0005, HR = 3.1). In multivariate analysis, TMTV0 was the only significant independent parameter for both PFS and OS. TMTV0, combined with PIT, discriminated even better than TMTV0 alone, patients with an adverse outcome (TMTV0 >230 cm(3) and PIT >1, n = 33,) from those with good prognosis (TMTV0 ≤230 cm(3) and PIT ≤1, n = 40): 19% versus 73% 2-year PFS (P < 0.0001) and 43% versus 81% 2-year OS, respectively (P = 0.0002). Thirty-one patients (other TMTV0-PIT combinations) had an intermediate outcome, 50% 2-year PFS and 68% 2-year OS. CONCLUSION: TMTV0 appears as an independent predictor of PTCL outcome. Combined with PIT, it could identify different risk categories at diagnosis and warrants further validation as a prognostic marker.

Is Favorable Outcome Possible After Prolonged Refractory Status Epilepticus?

When status epilepticus (SE) remains refractory to appropriate therapy, it is associated with high mortality and with substantial morbidity in survivors. Many outcome predictors such as age, seizure type, level of consciousness before treatment, and mostly, etiology, are well-established. A longer duration of SE is often associated with worse outcome, but duration may lose its prognostic value after several hours. Several terms and definitions have been used to describe prolonged, refractory SE, including "malignant SE," "prolonged" SE, and more recently, "super refractory" SE, defined as "SE that has continued or recurred despite 24 hours of general anesthesia (or coma-inducing anticonvulsants)." There are few data available regarding the outcome of prolonged refractory SE, and even fewer for SE remaining refractory to anesthetic drugs. This article reviews reports of outcome after prolonged, refractory, and "super refractory" SE. Most information detailing the clinical outcome of patients surviving these severe illnesses, in which seizures can persist for days or weeks (and especially those concerning "super-refractory" SE) come from case reports and retrospective cohort studies. In many series, prolonged, refractory SE has a mortality of 30% to 50%, and several studies indicate that most survivors have a substantial decline in functional status. Nevertheless, several reports demonstrate that good functional outcome is possible even after several days of SE and coma induction. Treatment of refractory SE should not be withdrawn from younger patients without structural brain damage at presentation solely because of the duration of SE.

Paranoia and post-traumatic stress disorder in the months after a physical assault: a longitudinal study examining shared and differential predictors.

Background: Being physically assaulted is known to increase the risk of the occurrence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms but it may also skew judgements about the intentions of other people. The objectives of the study were to assess paranoia and PTSD after an assault and to test whether theory-derived cognitive factors predicted the persistence of these problems. Method: At 4 weeks after hospital attendance due to an assault, 106 people were assessed on multiple symptom measures (including virtual reality) and cognitive factors from models of paranoia and PTSD. The symptom measures were repeated 3 and 6 months later. Results: Factor analysis indicated that paranoia and PTSD were distinct experiences, though positively correlated. At 4 weeks, 33% of participants met diagnostic criteria for PTSD, falling to 16% at follow-up. Of the group at the first assessment, 80% reported that since the assault they were excessively fearful of other people, which over time fell to 66%. Almost all the cognitive factors (including information-processing style during the trauma, mental defeat, qualities of unwanted memories, self-blame, negative thoughts about self, worry, safety behaviours, anomalous internal experiences and cognitive inflexibility) predicted later paranoia and PTSD, but there was little evidence of differential prediction. Conclusions: Paranoia after an assault may be common and distinguishable from PTSD but predicted by a strikingly similar range of factors.

Anoxic-ischemic encephalopathy: association of predictors with the vital and functional prognosis of patients

Improve the prediction of the vital and functional prognosis of comatose patients suffering from anoxic-ischemic encephalopathy after successful resuscitation from a cardiac arrest, addmitted to the Intensive Care and Coronary Units of the Dr. Josep Trueta Hospital, based on clinical, neurophysiological and biochemical results.The results of these different tests, revised and combined all together, will improve the prediction of the patients' prognosis, leading to an accurate vital and functional outcome, as they only have been studied separately so far. Anoxia is the third most frequent cause of coma, and the most common cause of post-anoxic coma in adults is the cardiac arrest. The incidence of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury is not well known, but it is certain that cardiac arrest, the most common cause of post-anoxic coma, affects approximately 24000 to 50000 Spanish people every year, most of them occuring out of the hospital. A cardiac arrest is the abrupt cessation of normal circulation of the blood due to failure of the heart to contract effectively during systole. It is different from, but may be caused by, a heart attack or myocardial infarction, where blood flow to the still-beating heart is interrupted. Arrested blood circulation prevents delivery of oxygen to all parts of the body. Cerebral hypoxia, or lack of oxygen supply to the brain, causes victims to lose consciousness and to stop normal breathing, although agonal breathing may still occur. Brain injury is likely if cardiac arrest is untreated for more than five minutes

Apolipoprotein E and Recovery from Traumatic Brain Injury

The outcome from traumatic brain injury (TBI) is variable and only partly explained by known prognostic factors. This is especially true for predicting long-term outcome. Genetic factors may influence the brain`s susceptibility to injury or capacity for repair and regeneration. To examine the association of apolipoproteinE (apoE) genotype with long-term outcome, hippocampal volumes and general brain atrophy, we determined the apoE genotype from 61 TBI patients who had been injured over on average 31 years earlier. The long-term outcome was evaluated with repeated neuropsychological testing and by applying various measures of everyday functioning and quality of life. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) based volumetric analyses of the hippocampus and lateral ventricles were performed. In the prospective study, the purpose was to examine the association between apoE genotype and visibility of traumatic brain lesions during the first year after TBI and the ability of apoE genotype, the Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), MRI findings and duration of posttraumatic amnesia (PTA) to predict the one-year outcome. Thirty-three patients with TBI were studied and the outcome was evaluated with the Head Injury Symptom Checklist (HISC) and the Glasgow Outcome Scale extended version (GOS-E) scores one year after the injury. MRI and apoE genotyping were carried out. After three decades, neither hippocampal nor lateral ventricle volumes differed significantly in those patients with the apoE ε4 allele vs those without this allele, but the TBI patients with the apoE ε4 allele showed significantly poorer general cognitive level than those without this allele. This decline was wholly accounted for by a subgroup of patients who had developed incident or clinical dementia. In the prospective study the apoE genotype was not associated with visible MRI changes or outcome. The duration of PTA and acute MRI were the best predictors of one-year outcome in TBI. A portion of the TBI patients with the apoE ε4 allele seem to be at risk of long-term cognitive decline. This association may involve mechanisms other than those responsible for the development of brain atrophy. The early MRI and PTA have an important role in assessing the injury severity and prognosis.

Predictors of smoking craving during virtual reality exposure

Cue exposure treatment (CET) consists of controlled and repeated exposure to drugrelated stimuli in order to reduce cue-reactivity. Virtual reality (VR) has proved to be a promising tool for exposition. However, identifying the variables that can modulate the efficacy of this technique is essential for selecting the most appropriate exposure modality. The aim of this study was to determine the relation between several individual variables and self-reported craving in smokers exposed to VR environments. Fortysix smokers were exposed to seven complex virtual environments that reproduce typical situations in which people smoke. Self-reported craving was selected as the criterion variable and three types of variables were selected as the predictor variables: related to nicotine dependence, related to anxiety and impulsivity, and related to the sense of presence in the virtual environments. Sense of presence was the only predictor of self-reported craving in all the experimental virtual environments. Nicotine dependence variables added predictive power to the model only in the virtual breakfast at home. No relation was found between anxiety or impulsivity and self-reported craving. Virtual reality technology can be very helpful for improving CET for substance use disorders. However, the use of virtual environments would make sense only insofar as the sense of presence was high. Otherwise, the effectiveness of exposure might be affected. © 2012 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Predictors of psychiatric hospitalization during 6 months of maintenance treatment with olanzapine long-acting injection: post hoc analysis of a randomized, double-blind study.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization is a costly and distressing event associated with relapse during schizophrenia treatment. No information is available on the predictors of psychiatric hospitalization during maintenance treatment with olanzapine long-acting injection (olanzapine-LAI) or how the risk of hospitalization differs between olanzapine-LAI and oral olanzapine. This study aimed to identify the predictors of psychiatric hospitalization during maintenance treatment with olanzapine-LAI and assessed four parameters: hospitalization prevalence, incidence rate, duration, and the time to first hospitalization. Olanzapine-LAI was also compared with a sub-therapeutic dose of olanzapine-LAI and with oral olanzapine. METHODS: This was a post hoc exploratory analysis of data from a randomized, double-blind study comparing the safety and efficacy of olanzapine-LAI (pooled active depot groups: 405 mg/4 weeks, 300 mg/2 weeks, and 150 mg/2 weeks) with oral olanzapine and sub-therapeutic olanzapine-LAI (45 mg/4 weeks) during 6 months' maintenance treatment of clinically stable schizophrenia outpatients (n=1064). The four psychiatric hospitalization parameters were analyzed for each treatment group. Within the olanzapine-LAI group, patients with and without hospitalization were compared on baseline characteristics. Logistic regression and Cox's proportional hazards models were used to identify the best predictors of hospitalization. Comparisons between the treatment groups employed descriptive statistics, the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox's proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Psychiatric hospitalization was best predicted by suicide threats in the 12 months before baseline and by prior hospitalization. Compared with sub-therapeutic olanzapine-LAI, olanzapine-LAI was associated with a significantly lower hospitalization rate (5.2% versus 11.1%, p < 0.01), a lower mean number of hospitalizations (0.1 versus 0.2, p = 0.01), a shorter mean duration of hospitalization (1.5 days versus 2.9 days, p < 0.01), and a similar median time to first hospitalization (35 versus 60 days, p = 0.48). Olanzapine-LAI did not differ significantly from oral olanzapine on the studied hospitalization parameters. CONCLUSIONS: In clinically stable schizophrenia outpatients receiving olanzapine-LAI maintenance treatment, psychiatric hospitalization was best predicted by a history of suicide threats and prior psychiatric hospitalization. Olanzapine-LAI was associated with a significantly lower incidence of psychiatric hospitalization and shorter duration of hospitalization compared with sub-therapeutic olanzapine-LAI. Olanzapine-LAI did not differ significantly from oral olanzapine on hospitalization parameters.