Predictive ability of an early diagnostic guess in patients presenting with chest pain; a longitudinal descriptive study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The intuitive early diagnostic guess could play an important role in reaching a final diagnosis. However, no study to date has attempted to quantify the importance of general practitioners' (GPs) ability to correctly appraise the origin of chest pain within the first minutes of an encounter. METHODS: The validation study was nested in a multicentre cohort study with a one year follow-up and included 626 successive patients who presented with chest pain and were attended by 58 GPs in Western Switzerland. The early diagnostic guess was assessed prior to a patient's history being taken by a GP and was then compared to a diagnosis of chest pain observed over the next year. RESULTS: Using summary measures clustered at the GP's level, the early diagnostic guess was confirmed by further investigation in 51.0% (CI 95%; 49.4% to 52.5%) of patients presenting with chest pain. The early diagnostic guess was more accurate in patients with a life threatening illness (65.4%; CI 95% 64.5% to 66.3%) and in patients who did not feel anxious (62.9%; CI 95% 62.5% to 63.3%). The predictive abilities of an early diagnostic guess were consistent among GPs. CONCLUSIONS: The GPs early diagnostic guess was correct in one out of two patients presenting with chest pain. The probability of a correct guess was higher in patients with a life-threatening illness and in patients not feeling anxious about their pain.

Influence of Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination on size of tuberculin skin test reaction : to what size ?

RESUME Le diagnostic d'infection tuberculeuse repose essentiellement sur le test tuberculinique (test de Mantoux). Cependant, le résultat de ce dernier est également influencé par d'autres facteurs, le plus important étant la vaccination par le Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), interaction connue depuis de nombreuses années. Il est généralement admis que l'effet de la vaccination peut entraîner des réactions positives jusqu'à un diamètre d'induration de 15 mm. Au-delà, la positivité du test est en général attribuée à une primo-infection tuberculeuse. Peu d'études se sont réellement penchées sur le sujet. Chez le personnel de soins soumis à des Mantoux répétés, cette notion revêt une importance particulière pour interpréter correctement une réaction fortement positive en l'absence de facteurs de risque tuberculeux, dans un pays à faible endémie tuberculeuse. Notre étude a cherché à déterminer si le diamètre transversal de l'induration du Mantoux était un critère fiable pour distinguer une positivité associée à une infection tuberculeuse de celle associée à une ancienne vaccination. Elle s'est attachée à rechercher un seuil au-delà duquel l'infection tuberculeuse pourrait être considérée comme probable. Entre janvier 1991 et mars 1998, tous les nouveaux employés du CHUV ont été invités à recevoir un test tuberculinique à l'occasion de leur visite d'entrée à la Médecine du personnel. En cas de réponse négative, un deuxième test a été pratiqué une semaine plus tard, pour détecter un éventuel effet booster. Lors de la première visite, l'infirmière a rempli un questionnaire comprenant les données démographiques usuelles, des informations concernant les facteurs pouvant influencer la positivité du test, notamment les antécédents de vaccination par le BCG, les expositions à la tuberculose et l'existence d'antécédents d'infection tuberculeuse. Parmi les 5117 sujets inclus dans l'étude, nous avons trouvé que l'influence de la vaccination variait en fonction de l'âge. Chez les sujets de moins de 40 ans, la vaccination par le BCG était le prédicteur le plus important d'un Mantoux positif inférieur à 18 mm, de loin supérieur aux facteurs de risque habituels pour une infection tuberculeuse, eux aussi significatifs. L'effet du BCG était présent pour des réactions allant jusqu'à 20 mm. Pour les Mantoux supérieurs à 20 mm, l'odds ratio (OR) relatif au BCG demeure clairement élevé (supérieur à 3,4) bien que non significatif. Par contre, pour les employés âgés de plus de 40 ans, le BCG est un facteur prédictif pour les tests supérieurs à 10 mm (OR 2.4) mais n'est plus un facteur significatif pour une taille supérieure à 15 mm. Ces résultats montrent que l'interprétation d'un test tuberculinique même fortement positif, doit être faite avec prudence et discernement. En effet, notre étude démontre que chez les sujets vaccinés de moins de 40 ans, dans les zones de faible endémie tuberculeuse particulièrement en l'absence de facteurs de risque pour une infection tuberculeuse, un Mantoux positif jusqu'à 18 mm est dû, le plus probablement, à une ancienne vaccination par le BCG, plutôt qu'à une infection par M tuberczilosis. L'interprétation des Mantoux de taille inférieure à 18 mm et les Mantoux effectués chez des sujets de moins de 40 ans, doit prendre en compte l'existence d'un BCG antérieur. En conséquence, la mise en évidence d'une réaction de Mantoux fortement positive ne devrait pas conduire systématiquement à un traitement préventif. L'absence de spécificité du test Mantoux, utilisé pour le dépistage de la tuberculose depuis bientôt une centaine d'année, est un problème connu. Nous démontrons que la taille de l'induration ne peut pas être utilisée de façon fiable comme critère pour identifier une infection tuberculeuse chez une personne vaccinée avec le BCG, avec le risque de sui-traiter un nombre important de sujets. Dans notre étude, 21% des sujets avaient un Mantoux supérieur ou égal à 15 mm et auraient dû être traités selon les recommandations en vigueur en Suisse si l'on ne tenait pas compte du BCG antérieur. Des tests plus spécifiques sont actuellement à l'étude et permettront vraisemblablement, à l'avenir, de palier au problème de l'absence de spécificité du test de Mantoux. Abstract : Background. Previous bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination can confound the results of a tuberculin skin test (TST). We sought to determine a cutoff diameter of TST induration beyond which the influence of BCG vaccination was negligible in evaluating potential Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in a population of health care workers with a high vaccination rate and low incidence of tuberculosis. Methods. From 1991 through 1998, all new employees at the University Hospital of Lausanne, Switzerland, underwent a 2-step TST at entry visit. We also gathered information on demographic characteristics, along with factors commonly associated with tuberculin positivity, including previous BCG vaccination, history of latent M. tuberculosis infection, and predictors for M. tuberculosis infection. Results. Among the 5117 investigated subjects, we found that influence of BCG vaccination on TST results varied across categories of age (likelihood ratio test, 0.0001). Prior BCG vaccination had a strong influence on skin test results of mm in diameter among persons <40 years old, compared with the influence of factors predictive of M. tuberculosis infection. Prior latent M. tuberculosis infection and travel or employment in a country in which tuberculosis is endemic also had significant influences. Conclusions. Interpretation of TST reactions of mm among BCG-vaccinated persons <40 years of age must be done with caution in areas with a low incidence of tuberculosis. In such a population, except for persons who have never been vaccinated, TST reactions of ---518 mm are more likely to be the result of prior vaccination than infection and should not systematically lead to preventive treatment.

La reincidència penitenciària a Catalunya

L’estudi té per objectiu conèixer la reincidència penitenciària de la població excarcerada de les presons catalanes l’any 1997, fent el seguiment durant 5 anys en tot el territori Espanyol. La població total es composa de 3.898 persones, de les que la mostra estudiada ha estat de 1.555 persones. S’ha treballat amb els expedients informàtics dels interns que composen la mostra, identificats amb codis numèrics per garantir la privacitat de les dades. A part d’actualitzar la taxa de reincidència penitenciària (la última datava de l’any 1994 i es referia a les dades de 1987), l’estudi també descriu e les relacions significatives entre determinades variables individuals i d’historial delictiu i penitenciari, i el fet que es reincideixi o no. També identifica el perfil més comú de les persones reincidents front a les que no ho són. I, finalment, es desenvolupa un model predictiu de la reincidència mitjançant l’aplicació de tècniques d’anàlisi multivariat.

The effect of homozygous deletion of the BBOX1 and Fibin genes on carnitine level and acyl carnitine profile.

BACKGROUND: Carnitine is a key molecule in energy metabolism that helps transport activated fatty acids into the mitochondria. Its homeostasis is achieved through oral intake, renal reabsorption and de novo biosynthesis. Unlike dietary intake and renal reabsorption, the importance of de novo biosynthesis pathway in carnitine homeostasis remains unclear, due to lack of animal models and description of a single patient defective in this pathway. CASE PRESENTATION: We identified by array comparative genomic hybridization a 42 months-old girl homozygote for a 221 Kb interstitial deletions at 11p14.2, that overlaps the genes encoding Fibin and butyrobetaine-gamma 2-oxoglutarate dioxygenase 1 (BBOX1), an enzyme essential for the biosynthesis of carnitine de novo. She presented microcephaly, speech delay, growth retardation and minor facial anomalies. The levels of almost all evaluated metabolites were normal. Her serum level of free carnitine was at the lower limit of the reference range, while her acylcarnitine to free carnitine ratio was normal. CONCLUSIONS: We present an individual with a completely defective carnitine de novo biosynthesis. This condition results in mildly decreased free carnitine level, but not in clinical manifestations characteristic of carnitine deficiency disorders, suggesting that dietary carnitine intake and renal reabsorption are sufficient to carnitine homeostasis. Our results also demonstrate that haploinsufficiency of BBOX1 and/or Fibin is not associated with Primrose syndrome as previously suggested.

Object-oriented Bayesian networks for evaluating DIP-STR profiling results from unbalanced DNA mixtures.

The genetic characterization of unbalanced mixed stains remains an important area where improvement is imperative. In fact, with current methods for DNA analysis (Polymerase Chain Reaction with the SGM Plus™ multiplex kit), it is generally not possible to obtain a conventional autosomal DNA profile of the minor contributor if the ratio between the two contributors in a mixture is smaller than 1:10. This is a consequence of the fact that the major contributor's profile 'masks' that of the minor contributor. Besides known remedies to this problem, such as Y-STR analysis, a new compound genetic marker that consists of a Deletion/Insertion Polymorphism (DIP), linked to a Short Tandem Repeat (STR) polymorphism, has recently been developed and proposed elsewhere in literature [1]. The present paper reports on the derivation of an approach for the probabilistic evaluation of DIP-STR profiling results obtained from unbalanced DNA mixtures. The procedure is based on object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs) and uses the likelihood ratio as an expression of the probative value. OOBNs are retained in this paper because they allow one to provide a clear description of the genotypic configuration observed for the mixed stain as well as for the various potential contributors (e.g., victim and suspect). These models also allow one to depict the assumed relevance relationships and perform the necessary probabilistic computations.

Lifelong dynamics of human CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells: insights from in vivo data and mathematical modeling.

Despite their limited proliferation capacity, regulatory T cells (T(regs)) constitute a population maintained over the entire lifetime of a human organism. The means by which T(regs) sustain a stable pool in vivo are controversial. Using a mathematical model, we address this issue by evaluating several biological scenarios of the origins and the proliferation capacity of two subsets of T(regs): precursor CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(-) and mature CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(+) cells. The lifelong dynamics of T(regs) are described by a set of ordinary differential equations, driven by a stochastic process representing the major immune reactions involving these cells. The model dynamics are validated using data from human donors of different ages. Analysis of the data led to the identification of two properties of the dynamics: (1) the equilibrium in the CD4(+)CD25(+)FoxP3(+)T(regs) population is maintained over both precursor and mature T(regs) pools together, and (2) the ratio between precursor and mature T(regs) is inverted in the early years of adulthood. Then, using the model, we identified three biologically relevant scenarios that have the above properties: (1) the unique source of mature T(regs) is the antigen-driven differentiation of precursors that acquire the mature profile in the periphery and the proliferation of T(regs) is essential for the development and the maintenance of the pool; there exist other sources of mature T(regs), such as (2) a homeostatic density-dependent regulation or (3) thymus- or effector-derived T(regs), and in both cases, antigen-induced proliferation is not necessary for the development of a stable pool of T(regs). This is the first time that a mathematical model built to describe the in vivo dynamics of regulatory T cells is validated using human data. The application of this model provides an invaluable tool in estimating the amount of regulatory T cells as a function of time in the blood of patients that received a solid organ transplant or are suffering from an autoimmune disease.

Early and Prolonged Antiretroviral Therapy Is Associated with an HIV-1-Specific T-Cell Profile Comparable to That of Long-Term Non-Progressors.

Background: Intervention with antiretroviral treatment (ART) and control of viral replication at the time of HIV-1 seroconversion may curtail cumulative immunological damage. We have therefore hypothesized that ART maintenance over a very prolonged period in HIV-1 seroconverters could induce an immuno-virological status similar to that of HIV-1 long-term non-progressors (LTNPs).Methodology/Principal Findings: We have investigated a cohort of 20 HIV-1 seroconverters on long-term ART (LTTS) and compared it to one of 15 LTNPs. Residual viral replication and reservoirs in peripheral blood, as measured by cell-associated HIV-1 RNA and DNA, respectively, were demonstrated to be similarly low in both cohorts. These two virologically matched cohorts were then comprehensively analysed by polychromatic flow cytometry for HIV-1-specific CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell functional profile in terms of cytokine production and cytotoxic capacity using IFN-gamma, IL-2, TNF-alpha production and perforin expression, respectively. Comparable levels of highly polyfunctional HIV-1-specific CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cells were found in LTTS and LTNPs, with low perforin expression on HIV-1-specific CD8+ T-cells, consistent with a polyfunctional/non-cytotoxic profile in a context of low viral burden.Conclusions: Our results indicate that prolonged ART initiated at the time of HIV-1 seroconversion is associated with immuno-virological features which resemble those of LTNPs, strengthening the recent emphasis on the positive impact of early treatment initiation and paving the way for further interventions to promote virological control after treatment interruption.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part II. Statistical and ethical considerations on familial searching.

Familial searching consists of searching for a full profile left at a crime scene in a National DNA Database (NDNAD). In this paper we are interested in the circumstance where no full match is returned, but a partial match is found between a database member's profile and the crime stain. Because close relatives share more of their DNA than unrelated persons, this partial match may indicate that the crime stain was left by a close relative of the person with whom the partial match was found. This approach has successfully solved important crimes in the UK and the USA. In a previous paper, a model, which takes into account substructure and siblings, was used to simulate a NDNAD. In this paper, we have used this model to test the usefulness of familial searching and offer guidelines for pre-assessment of the cases based on the likelihood ratio. Siblings of "persons" present in the simulated Swiss NDNAD were created. These profiles (N=10,000) were used as traces and were then compared to the whole database (N=100,000). The statistical results obtained show that the technique has great potential confirming the findings of previous studies. However, effectiveness of the technique is only one part of the story. Familial searching has juridical and ethical aspects that should not be ignored. In Switzerland for example, there are no specific guidelines to the legality or otherwise of familial searching. This article both presents statistical results, and addresses criminological and civil liberties aspects to take into account risks and benefits of familial searching.

Malaria in pregnant women living in areas of low transmission on the southeast Brazilian Coast: molecular diagnosis and humoural immunity profile

Studies on autochthonous malaria in low-transmission areas in Brazil have acquired epidemiological relevance because they suggest continued transmission in what remains of the Atlantic Forest. In the southeastern portion of the state of São Paulo, outbreaks in the municipality of Juquitiba have been the focus of studies on the prevalence of Plasmodium, including asymptomatic cases. Data on the occurrence of the disease or the presence of antiplasmodial antibodies in pregnant women from this region have not previously been described. Although Plasmodium falciparum in pregnant women has been widely addressed in the literature, the interaction of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium malariae with this cohort has been poorly explored to date. We monitored the circulation of Plasmodium in pregnant women in health facilities located in Juquitiba using thick blood film and molecular protocols, as well as immunological assays, to evaluate humoural immune parameters. Through real-time and nested polymerase chain reaction, P. vivax and P. malariae were detected for the first time in pregnant women, with a positivity of 5.6%. Immunoassays revealed the presence of IgG antibodies: 44% for ELISA-Pv, 38.4% for SD-Bioline-Pv and 18.4% for indirect immunofluorescence assay-Pm. The high prevalence of antibodies showed significant exposure of this population to Plasmodium. In regions with similar profiles, testing for a malaria diagnosis might be indicated in prenatal care.

Is intra-operative blood fllow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula ?

Rapport de Synthèse : Introduction : Depuis plus de 50 ans, les fistules artérioveineuses radiocéphaliques (FAV) restent le meilleur accès d'hémodialyse en termes de perméabilité et de complications. Néanmoins, l'échec précoce dû aux thromboses ou à la non maturation entraîne leur abandon chez un nombre significatif de patients. Cette étude prospective est destinée à investiguer la mesure peropératoire du débit sanguin dans les FAV comme valeur prédictive d'échec précoce. Méthode : Nous avons sélectionné des patients nécessitant la confection d'une FAV pour hémodialyse en se basant sur le repérage veineux effectué par ultrason dans la période préopératoire. La mesure du débit sanguin dans la FAV a été réalisée systématiquement après la réalisation de l'anastomose en utilisant une sonde mesurant le temps de transit des globules rouges. Durant le suivi, le débit a été estimé par ultrason à des intervalles réguliers. Résultats : Nous avons réalisés 58 FAV chez 58 patients avec un suivi moyen de 30 jours. La thrombose et non maturation a été observée chez 8 patients (14%) et 4 patients (7%) respectivement. La valeur de débit peropératoire des fistules sans échec précoce était significativement plus élevée que dans les fistules avec échec précoce (230 v. 98 mL/min ; Ρ = 0.007), tout comme à une semaine (753 vs 228 mL/min ; P=0.0008) et 4 semaines (915 vs 245 mL/min, P<0.0001j. La mesure du débit avec une valeur seuil à 120 mL/min présente une sensibilité de 67%, une spécificité de 75% et une valeur prédictive positive de 91%. Conclusions : Un débit sanguin < 120mL/min a une bonne valeur prédictive positive d'échec précoce dans les FAV. Durant la procédure, cette valeur seuil, doit être utilisée pour sélectionner de manière appropriée les FAV nécessitant durant la même intervention une correction immédiate afin d'améliorer le débit. Une étude consécutive devra investiguer les origines des débits faibles des FAV objectivés durant leur confection.

Moderate-Vigorous Physical Activity across Body Mass Index in Females: Moderating Effect of Endocannabinoids and Temperament.

BACKGROUND Endocannabinoids and temperament traits have been linked to both physical activity and body mass index (BMI) however no study has explored how these factors interact in females. The aims of this cross-sectional study were to 1) examine differences among distinct BMI groups on daytime physical activity and time spent in moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), temperament traits and plasma endocannabinoid concentrations; and 2) explore the association and interaction between MVPA, temperament, endocannabinoids and BMI. METHODS Physical activity was measured with the wrist-worn accelerometer Actiwatch AW7, in a sample of 189 female participants (43 morbid obese, 30 obese, and 116 healthy-weight controls). The Temperament and Character Inventory-Revised questionnaire was used to assess personality traits. BMI was calculated by bioelectrical impedance analysis via the TANITA digital scale. Blood analyses were conducted to measure levels of endocannabinoids and endocannabinoid-related compounds. Path-analysis was performed to examine the association between predictive variables and MVPA. RESULTS Obese groups showed lower MVPA and dysfunctional temperament traits compared to healthy-weight controls. Plasma concentrations of 2-arachidonoylglyceryl (2-AG) were greater in obese groups. Path-analysis identified a direct effect between greater MVPA and low BMI (b = -0.13, p = .039) and high MVPA levels were associated with elevated anandamide (AEA) levels (b = 0.16, p = .049) and N-oleylethanolamide (OEA) levels (b = 0.22, p = .004), as well as high Novelty seeking (b = 0.18, p<.001) and low Harm avoidance (b = -0.16, p<.001). CONCLUSIONS Obese individuals showed a distinct temperament profile and circulating endocannabinoids compared to controls. Temperament and endocannabinoids may act as moderators of the low MVPA in obesity.

Impaired left ventricular function as a predictive factor for mid-term survival in octogenarians after primary coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: The impact of preoperative impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) in octogenarians following coronary bypass surgery on short-term survival was evaluated in this study. METHODS: A total of 147 octogenarians (mean age 82.1 ± 1.9 years) with coronary artery diseases underwent elective coronary artery bypass graft between January 2000 and December 2009. Patients were stratified into: Group I (n = 59) with EF >50%, Group II (n = 59) with 50% > EF >30% and in Group III (n = 29) with 30% > EF. RESULTS: There was no difference among the three groups regarding incidence of COPD, renal failure, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and preoperative cerebrovascular events. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was the sole independent predictive factor for in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR), 18.1); this was 8.5% in Group I, 15.3% in Group II and 10.3% in Group III. Independent predictive factors for mortality during follow up were: decrease of EF during follow-up for more that 5% (OR, 5.2), usage of left internal mammary artery as free graft (OR, 18.1), and EF in follow-up lower than 40% (OR, 4.8). CONCLUSIONS: The results herein suggest acceptable in-hospital as well short-term mortality in octogenarians with impaired EF following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and are comparable to recent literature where the mortality of younger patients was up to 15% and short-term mortality up to 40%, respectively. Accordingly, we can also state that in an octogenarian cohort with impaired EF, CABG is a viable treatment with acceptable mortality.

Relevant gender differences in epidemiological profile, exposure to first antiretroviral regimen and survival in the Spanish AIDS Research Network Cohort.

BACKGROUND The possible differences in the disease spectrum and prognosis of HIV infection in women and men is a major point of concern. Women are under-represented in randomized clinical trials and in some cohorts. Discordant results have often been obtained depending on the setting. METHODS We assessed gender differences in clinical and epidemiological features, antiretroviral treatment (ART) exposure and survival in two multicentre cohorts of HIV-positive subjects in Spain: CoRIS-MD and CoRIS. Competing risk regression models were used to assess gender effect on time to start ART and time to first ART change, and a Cox regression model to estimate gender effect on time to death. RESULTS Between January 1996 and December 2008, 1,953 women and 6,072 men naive to ART at study entry were included. The trend analysis over time showed the percentage of women in the younger (<20 years) and older (>50 years) strata increased significantly (P<0.001) from 0.5% and 1.8% in 1996 to 4.9% and 4.2% in 2008, respectively. By competing risk analysis women started ART earlier than men (adjusted subhazard ratio [ASHR] 1.21, 95% CI 1.11, 1.31) in CoRIS cohort, while in CoRIS-MD none of these differences were observed. In both cohorts women showed a shorter time to the first ART change (ASHR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01, 1.19). Pregnancy and patient's/physician's decisions as reasons for changing were more frequent in women than in men in CoRIS. In the Cox regression model, gender was not associated with differences in survival. CONCLUSIONS In two large cohorts in Spain, we observed relevant gender differences in epidemiological characteristics and antiretroviral exposure outcomes, while survival differences were not attributable to gender.