Generating Semantic Descriptions From Drawings of Scenes With Shadows

The research reported here concerns the principles used to automatically generate three-dimensional representations from line drawings of scenes. The computer programs involved look at scenes which consist of polyhedra and which may contain shadows and various kinds of coincidentally aligned scene features. Each generated description includes information about edge shape (convex, concave, occluding, shadow, etc.), about the type of illumination for each region (illuminated, projected shadow, or oriented away from the light source), and about the spacial orientation of regions. The methods used are based on the labeling schemes of Huffman and Clowes; this research provides a considerable extension to their work and also gives theoretical explanations to the heuristic scene analysis work of Guzman, Winston, and others.

Description and Theoretical Analysis (Using Schemata) of Planner: A Language for Proving Theorems and Manipulating Models in a Robot

Planner is a formalism for proving theorems and manipulating models in a robot. The formalism is built out of a number of problem-solving primitives together with a hierarchical multiprocess backtrack control structure. Statements can be asserted and perhaps later withdrawn as the state of the world changes. Under BACKTRACK control structure, the hierarchy of activations of functions previously executed is maintained so that it is possible to revert to any previous state. Thus programs can easily manipulate elaborate hypothetical tentative states. In addition PLANNER uses multiprocessing so that there can be multiple loci of changes in state. Goals can be established and dismissed when they are satisfied. The deductive system of PLANNER is subordinate to the hierarchical control structure in order to maintain the desired degree of control. The use of a general-purpose matching language as the basis of the deductive system increases the flexibility of the system. Instead of explicitly naming procedures in calls, procedures can be invoked implicitly by patterns of what the procedure is supposed to accomplish. The language is being applied to solve problems faced by a robot, to write special purpose routines from goal oriented language, to express and prove properties of procedures, to abstract procedures from protocols of their actions, and as a semantic base for English.

Nearest-neighbor Queries in Probabilistic Graphs

Large probabilistic graphs arise in various domains spanning from social networks to biological and communication networks. An important query in these graphs is the k nearest-neighbor query, which involves finding and reporting the k closest nodes to a specific node. This query assumes the existence of a measure of the "proximity" or the "distance" between any two nodes in the graph. To that end, we propose various novel distance functions that extend well known notions of classical graph theory, such as shortest paths and random walks. We argue that many meaningful distance functions are computationally intractable to compute exactly. Thus, in order to process nearest-neighbor queries, we resort to Monte Carlo sampling and exploit novel graph-transformation ideas and pruning opportunities. In our extensive experimental analysis, we explore the trade-offs of our approximation algorithms and demonstrate that they scale well on real-world probabilistic graphs with tens of millions of edges.

At what price? A cost-effectiveness analysis comparing trial of labour after previous caesarean versus elective repeat caesarean delivery

Background: Elective repeat caesarean delivery (ERCD) rates have been increasing worldwide, thus prompting obstetric discourse on the risks and benefits for the mother and infant. Yet, these increasing rates also have major economic implications for the health care system. Given the dearth of information on the cost-effectiveness related to mode of delivery, the aim of this paper was to perform an economic evaluation on the costs and short-term maternal health consequences associated with a trial of labour after one previous caesarean delivery compared with ERCD for low risk women in Ireland.Methods: Using a decision analytic model, a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) was performed where the measure of health gain was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a six-week time horizon. A review of international literature was conducted to derive representative estimates of adverse maternal health outcomes following a trial of labour after caesarean (TOLAC) and ERCD. Delivery/procedure costs derived from primary data collection and combined both "bottom-up" and "top-down" costing estimations.Results: Maternal morbidities emerged in twice as many cases in the TOLAC group than the ERCD group. However, a TOLAC was found to be the most-effective method of delivery because it was substantially less expensive than ERCD ((sic)1,835.06 versus (sic)4,039.87 per women, respectively), and QALYs were modestly higher (0.84 versus 0.70). Our findings were supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Conclusions: Clinicians need to be well informed of the benefits and risks of TOLAC among low risk women. Ideally, clinician-patient discourse would address differences in length of hospital stay and postpartum recovery time. While it is premature advocate a policy of TOLAC across maternity units, the results of the study prompt further analysis and repeat iterations, encouraging future studies to synthesis previous research and new and relevant evidence under a single comprehensive decision model.

Equity trading volume and volatility: Latent information arrivals and common long-run dependencies

This article examines the behavior of equity trading volume and volatility for the individual firms composing the Standard & Poor's 100 composite index. Using multivariate spectral methods, we find that fractionally integrated processes best describe the long-run temporal dependencies in both series. Consistent with a stylized mixture-of-distributions hypothesis model in which the aggregate "news"-arrival process possesses long-memory characteristics, the long-run hyperbolic decay rates appear to be common across each volume-volatility pair.

Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Probabilistic Fréchet means for time varying persistence diagrams

© 2015, Institute of Mathematical Statistics. All rights reserved.In order to use persistence diagrams as a true statistical tool, it would be very useful to have a good notion of mean and variance for a set of diagrams. In [23], Mileyko and his collaborators made the first study of the properties of the Fréchet mean in (Dp, Wp), the space of persistence diagrams equipped with the p-th Wasserstein metric. In particular, they showed that the Fréchet mean of a finite set of diagrams always exists, but is not necessarily unique. The means of a continuously-varying set of diagrams do not themselves (necessarily) vary continuously, which presents obvious problems when trying to extend the Fréchet mean definition to the realm of time-varying persistence diagrams, better known as vineyards. We fix this problem by altering the original definition of Fréchet mean so that it now becomes a probability measure on the set of persistence diagrams; in a nutshell, the mean of a set of diagrams will be a weighted sum of atomic measures, where each atom is itself a persistence diagram determined using a perturbation of the input diagrams. This definition gives for each N a map (Dp)^N→ℙ(Dp). We show that this map is Hölder continuous on finite diagrams and thus can be used to build a useful statistic on vineyards.

Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements

Most of the air quality modelling work has been so far oriented towards deterministic simulations of ambient pollutant concentrations. This traditional approach, which is based on the use of one selected model and one data set of discrete input values, does not reflect the uncertainties due to errors in model formulation and input data. Given the complexities of urban environments and the inherent limitations of mathematical modelling, it is unlikely that a single model based on routinely available meteorological and emission data will give satisfactory short-term predictions. In this study, different methods involving the use of more than one dispersion model, in association with different emission simulation methodologies and meteorological data sets, were explored for predicting best CO and benzene estimates, and related confidence bounds. The different approaches were tested using experimental data obtained during intensive monitoring campaigns in busy street canyons in Paris, France. Three relative simple dispersion models (STREET, OSPM and AEOLIUS) that are likely to be used for regulatory purposes were selected for this application. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to identify internal model parameters that might significantly affect results. Finally, a probabilistic methodology for assessing urban air quality was proposed.

Rasch Analysis of the Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision (DLTV)

PURPOSE. To examine internal consistency, refine the response scale, and obtain a linear scoring system for the visual function instrument, the Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision (DLTV). METHODS. Data were available from 186 participants with a clinical diagnosis of AMD who completed the 22-item DLTV (DLTV-22) according to four-point ordinal response scale. An independent group of 386 participants with AMD were administered a reduced version of the DLTV with 11 items (DLTV-11), according to a five-point response scale. Rasch analysis was performed on both datasets and used to generate item statistics for measure order, response odds ratios per item and per person, and infit and outfit mean square statistics. The Rasch output from the DLTV-22 was examined to identify redundant items and for factorial validity and person item measure separation reliabilities. RESULTS. The average rating for the DLTV-22 changed monotonically with the magnitude of the latent person trait. The expected versus observed average measures were extremely close, with step calibrations evenly separated for the four-point ordinal scale. In the case of the DLTV-11, step calibrations were not as evenly separated, suggesting that the five-point scale should be reduced to either a four- or three-point scale. Five items in the DLTV-22 were removed, and all 17 remaining items had good infit and outfit mean squares. PCA with residuals from Rasch analysis identified two domains containing 7 and 10 items each. The domains had high person separation reliabilities (0.86 and 0.77 for domains 1 and 2, respectively) and item measure reliabilities (0.99 and 0.98 for domains 1 and 2, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. With the improved internal consistency, establishment of the accuracy and precision of the rating scale for the DLTV and the establishment of a valid domain structure we believe that it constitutes a useful instrument for assessing visual function in older adults with age-related macular degeneration.

Probabilistic classification of acute myocardial infarction from multiple cardiac markers

Logistic regression and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifiers have been trained to estimate the probability of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients based upon the concentrations of a panel of cardiac markers. The panel consists of two new markers, fatty acid binding protein (FABP) and glycogen phosphorylase BB (GPBB), in addition to the traditional cardiac troponin I (cTnI), creatine kinase MB (CKMB) and myoglobin. The effect of using principal component analysis (PCA) and Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) to preprocess the marker concentrations was also investigated. The need for classifiers to give an accurate estimate of the probability of AMI is argued and three categories of performance measure are described, namely discriminatory ability, sharpness, and reliability. Numerical performance measures for each category are given and applied. The optimum classifier, based solely upon the samples take on admission, was the logistic regression classifier using FDA preprocessing. This gave an accuracy of 0.85 (95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.91) and a normalised Brier score of 0.89. When samples at both admission and a further time, 1-6 h later, were included, the performance increased significantly, showing that logistic regression classifiers can indeed use the information from the five cardiac markers to accurately and reliably estimate the probability AMI. © Springer-Verlag London Limited 2008.

The discursive turn in policy analysis and the validation of policy stories

This paper is concerned with the language of policy documents in the field of health care, and how ‘readings’ of such documents might be validated in the context of a narrative analysis. The substantive focus is on a comparative study of UK health policy documents (N=20) as produced by the various assemblies, governments and executives of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland during the period 2000-2009. Following an identification of some key characteristics of narrative structure the authors indicate how text-mining strategies allied with features of semantic and network analysis can be used to unravel the basic elements of policy stories and to facilitate the presentation of data in such a way that readers can verify the strengths (and weaknesses) of any given analysis – with regard to claims concerning, say, the presence, absence, or relative importance of key ideas and concepts. Readers can also ‘see’ how the different components of any one story might fit together, and to get a sense of what has been excluded from the narrative as well as what has been included, and thereby assess the reliability and validity of interpretations that have been placed upon the data.

Reliability Assessment of 3-D Space Frame Structures Applying Stochastic Finite Element Analysis

Throughout design development of satellite structure, stress engineer is usually challenged with randomness in applied loads and material properties. To overcome such problem, a risk-based design is applied which estimates satellite structure probability of failure under static and thermal loads. Determining probability of failure can help to update initially applied factors of safety that were used during structure preliminary design phase. These factors of safety are related to the satellite mission objective. Sensitivity-based analysis is to be implemented in the context of finite element analysis (probabilistic finite element method or stochastic finite element method (SFEM)) to determine the probability of failure for satellite structure or one of its components.

Behaviour analysis and evidence-based education

Education has a powerful and long-term effect on people’s lives and therefore should be based on evidence of what works best. This assertion warrants a definition of what constitutes good research evidence. Two research designs that are often thought to come from diametrically opposed fields, single-subject research designs and randomised controlled-trials, are described and common features, such as the use of probabilistic assumptions and the aim of discovering causal relations are delineated. Differences between the two research designs are also highlighted and this is used as the basis to set out how these two research designs might better be used to complement one another. Recommendations for future action are made accordingly.

A unified view on the effect of fibers and loading on sfrc creep through linear projection to latent structures

Creep of Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete (SFRC) under flexural loads in the cracked state and to what extent different factors determine creep behaviour are quite understudied topics within the general field of SFRC mechanical properties. A series of prismatic specimens have been produced and subjected to sustained flexural loads. The effect of a number of variables (fiber length and slenderness, fiber content, and concrete compressive strength) has been studied in a comprehensive fashion. Twelve response variables (creep parameters measured at different times) have been retained as descriptive of flexural creep behaviour. Multivariate techniques have been used: the experimental results have been projected to their latent structure by means of Principal Components Analysis (PCA), so that all the information has been reduced to a set of three latent variables. They have been related to the variables considered and statistical significance of their effects on creep behaviour has been assessed. The result is a unified view on the effects of the different variables considered upon creep behaviour: fiber content and fiber slenderness have been detected to clearly modify the effect that load ratio has on flexural creep behaviour.