Market efficiency of commodity futures in India

This paper aims to examine the market efficiency of the commodity futures market in India, which has been growing phenomenally for the last few years. We estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the multi-commodity futures and spot prices and then test for market efficiency in a weak form sense by applying both the DOLS and the FMOLS methods. The entire sample period is from 2 January 2006 to 31 March 2011. The results indicate that a cointegrating relationship is found between these indices and that the commodity futures market seems to be efficient only during the more recent sub-sample period since July 2009.

Status and constraints of costly port rejection : a case from the Vietnamese frozen seafood export industry

While the rising exports have been the source of growth for many developing countries in recent years, the rate of commodities rejected at the ports of developed countries has also been high. Yet why it has remained so despite the costs involved is mostly unknown. This paper takes a case of the frozen seafood export industry in Vietnam and examines the current status of port rejection, roles played by various stakeholders along the value chains, and the constraints faced by the Vietnamese producers and exporters. It concludes with some policy implications, including strengthening the enforcement mechanism of standards compliance particularly at the upstream of the value chain and providing public testing labs for small-scale producers.

The middle-income trap from the viewpoint of trade structures

In this study, we try to elucidate the middle-income trap from the viewpoint of international trade. We conduct regression analyses on the relationship between income level and net export ratios for different types of goods for trapped and non-trapped samples separately. Our findings indicate that industrial upgrading appears to occur exactly as depicted by the flying-geese model for non-trapped countries while trapped countries tend to depend on the export of primary commodities, and industrialization appears to be driven by forward linkages to processed goods and a narrow base. The results of our analyses suggest that the middle-income trap is a form of Dutch disease or a 'resource curse' in the middle-income stage.

Understanding traders' regional arbitage : the case of rice traders in Antananarivo, Madagascar

Many studies find that agricultural markets in developing countries are poorly integrated spatially. Traders' regional arbitrage plays a key role in integrating markets across space. We investigate the performance of regional arbitrage and the associated obstacles for rice traders in Antananarivo, Madagascar. On the basis of a trader-level biweekly survey spanning 2012–2013, we find that traders are not fully exploiting the regional arbitrage opportunities: most of them fail to purchase from the cheapest district and are paying higher prices than those in the cheapest district. One apparent obstacle is obtaining price information from many different regions. To reduce search costs, we provided regional price information via SMS to randomly selected traders, but found that this had a null-effect on improving arbitrage performance. Traders tend to concentrate on trading with a few fixed districts, even if they are informed about cheaper prices in other new districts, because they worry about quality uncertainty and the trustworthiness of new partners. These findings suggest that not only transmission of price information but also issues related to produce quality and matching prevent the performance of arbitrage and market integration.

Simulation analysis of the EU ELV/RoHS directives based on an applied general equilibrium model with Melitz-type trade specification

This paper explores the potential usefulness of an AGE model with the Melitz-type trade specification to assess economic effects of technical regulations, taking the case of the EU ELV/RoHS directives as an example. Simulation experiments reveal that: (1) raising the fixed exporting cost to make sales in the EU market brings results that exports of the targeted commodities (motor vehicles and parts for ELV and electronic equipment for RoHS) to the EU from outside regions/countries expand while the domestic trade in the EU shrinks when the importer's preference for variety (PfV) is not strong; (2) if the PfV is not strong, policy changes that may bring reduction in the number of firms enable survived producers with high productivity to expand production to be large-scale mass producers fully enjoying the fruit of economies of scale; and (3) When the strength of the importer's PfV is changed from zero to unity, there is the value that totally changes simulation results and their interpretations.

Methodology for the design of offshore wind farms

Although still in an early stage, offshore wind development is now characterized by a boom process. This leads to the necessity of applying an integral management model for the design of offshore wind facilities, being the purpose of the model to achieve technical, economical and environmental viability, all within a sustainable development framework. The foregoing led to the research project exposed in this paper, consisting of drawing up an offshore wind farms methodological proposal; this methodology has a global and/or general nature or point of view whilst searching for optimization of the overall process of operations leading to the design of this type of installations and establishing collated theoretical bases for the further development of management tools. This methodological proposal follows a classical engineering thought scheme: it begins with the alternatives study, and ends with the detailed design. With this in mind, the paper includes the following sections: introduction, methodology used for the research project, conditioning factors, methodological proposal for the design of offshore wind farms, checking the methodological proposal, and conclusions

Comparative analysis of meta-analysis methods: when to use which?

Background: Several meta-analysis methods can be used to quantitatively combine the results of a group of experiments, including the weighted mean difference, statistical vote counting, the parametric response ratio and the non-parametric response ratio. The software engineering community has focused on the weighted mean difference method. However, other meta-analysis methods have distinct strengths, such as being able to be used when variances are not reported. There are as yet no guidelines to indicate which method is best for use in each case. Aim: Compile a set of rules that SE researchers can use to ascertain which aggregation method is best for use in the synthesis phase of a systematic review. Method: Monte Carlo simulation varying the number of experiments in the meta analyses, the number of subjects that they include, their variance and effect size. We empirically calculated the reliability and statistical power in each case Results: WMD is generally reliable if the variance is low, whereas its power depends on the effect size and number of subjects per meta-analysis; the reliability of RR is generally unaffected by changes in variance, but it does require more subjects than WMD to be powerful; NPRR is the most reliable method, but it is not very powerful; SVC behaves well when the effect size is moderate, but is less reliable with other effect sizes. Detailed tables of results are annexed. Conclusions: Before undertaking statistical aggregation in software engineering, it is worthwhile checking whether there is any appreciable difference in the reliability and power of the methods. If there is, software engineers should select the method that optimizes both parameters.

Influence of coiling on the stress relaxation of prestressing steel wires

The possible deleterious effects of coiling and long-term storage of coiled wires on the stress relaxation behaviour of prestressing steel wires has been checked by means of experimental work and a simple analytical model. The results show that if the requirements of standards are fulfilled (minimum coiling diameters), these effects can be neglected. However, some other factors, such as previous residual stresses, long-term storage or storage at high temperatures, can trigger or emphasize this damage to the material. In the authors' opinion, checking the final curvature of the wires after uncoiling prior to prestressing, as required in some standards, is to be recommended.

Obtaining carbonation depth of concrete used two different procedures standard EHE-08

In the Standard EHE 08, for the first time, durability acquires the status of Limit State. Article 8 provides that the term Durability limit state, produced by physical and chemical actions, different loads and actions of structural analysis, which can degrade the concrete and reinforcement to unacceptable limits. The verification of this limit state can be done through a procedure set out in the provisions of the Standard. This procedure is based on the use of tables that, depending on the aggressiveness of the environment in which the structure is the concrete strength and the life of the project, setting the quality of the concrete cover (minimum thickness and maximum water cement ratio of concrete used) and the maximum crack width. This procedure, simple in its application, provides highly secure solutions. In addition, on Annex 9, the Standard EHE 08 offers models for testing the durability limit state in cases of corrosion of reinforcement due to carbonation of concrete or entry of chloride ions. The results obtained with these models are tighter than those obtained with the procedure of the articles. In this paper we use both methods in the study of reinforced concrete structures with potential problems of corrosion of reinforcement due to carbonation of concrete. Later checking the results obtained by both procedures. Results demonstrate that the use of the models listed in Annex 9 of Standard EHE 08 offer cheaper solutions than those obtained using the procedure of the articles

Agile Construction and Evolution of Product-Line Architectures

Software Product Line Engineering (SPLE) has proved to have significant advantages in family-based software development, but also implies the up¬front design of a product-line architecture (PLA) from which individual product applications can be engineered. The big upfront design associated with PLAs is in conflict with the current need of "being open to change". However, the turbulence of the current business climate makes change inevitable in order to stay competitive, and requires PLAs to be open to change even late in the development. The trend of "being open to change" is manifested in the Agile Software Development (ASD) paradigm, but it is spreading to the domain of SPLE. To reduce the big upfront design of PLAs as currently practiced in SPLE, new paradigms are being created, one being Agile Product Line Engineering (APLE). APLE aims to make the development of product-lines more flexible and adaptable to changes as promoted in ASD. To put APLE into practice it is necessary to make mechanisms available to assist and guide the agile construction and evolution of PLAs while complying with the "be open to change" agile principle. This thesis defines a process for "the agile construction and evolution of product-line architectures", which we refer to as Agile Product-Line Archi-tecting (APLA). The APLA process provides agile architects with a set of models for describing, documenting and tracing PLAs, as well as an algorithm to analyze change impact. Both the models and the change impact analysis offer the following capabilities: Flexibility & adaptability at the time of defining software architectures, enabling change during the incremental and iterative design of PLAs (anticipated or planned changes) and their evolution (unanticipated or unforeseen changes). Assistance in checking architectural integrity through change impact analysis in terms of architectural concerns, such as dependencies on earlier design decisions, rationale, constraints, and risks, etc.Guidance in the change decision-making process through change im¬pact analysis in terms of architectural components and connections. Therefore, APLA provides the mechanisms required to construct and evolve PLAs that can easily be refined iteration after iteration during the APLE development process. These mechanisms are provided in a modeling frame¬work called FPLA. The contributions of this thesis have been validated through the conduction of a project regarding a metering management system in electrical power networks. This case study took place in an i-smart software factory and was in collaboration with the Technical University of Madrid and Indra Software Labs. La Ingeniería de Líneas de Producto Software (Software Product Line Engi¬neering, SPLE) ha demostrado tener ventajas significativas en el desarrollo de software basado en familias de productos. SPLE es un paradigma que se basa en la reutilización sistemática de un conjunto de características comunes que comparten los productos de un mismo dominio o familia, y la personalización masiva a través de una variabilidad bien definida que diferencia unos productos de otros. Este tipo de desarrollo requiere el diseño inicial de una arquitectura de línea de productos (Product-Line Architecture, PLA) a partir de la cual los productos individuales de la familia son diseñados e implementados. La inversión inicial que hay que realizar en el diseño de PLAs entra en conflicto con la necesidad actual de estar continuamente "abierto al cam¬bio", siendo este cambio cada vez más frecuente y radical en la industria software. Para ser competitivos es inevitable adaptarse al cambio, incluso en las últimas etapas del desarrollo de productos software. Esta tendencia se manifiesta de forma especial en el paradigma de Desarrollo Ágil de Software (Agile Software Development, ASD) y se está extendiendo también al ámbito de SPLE. Con el objetivo de reducir la inversión inicial en el diseño de PLAs en la manera en que se plantea en SPLE, en los último años han surgido nuevos enfoques como la Ingeniera de Líneas de Producto Software Ágiles (Agile Product Line Engineering, APLE). APLE propone el desarrollo de líneas de producto de forma más flexible y adaptable a los cambios, iterativa e incremental. Para ello, es necesario disponer de mecanismos que ayuden y guíen a los arquitectos de líneas de producto en el diseño y evolución ágil de PLAs, mientras se cumple con el principio ágil de estar abierto al cambio. Esta tesis define un proceso para la "construcción y evolución ágil de las arquitecturas de lineas de producto software". A este proceso se le ha denominado Agile Product-Line Architecting (APLA). El proceso APLA proporciona a los arquitectos software un conjunto de modelos para de¬scribir, documentar y trazar PLAs, así como un algoritmo para analizar vel impacto del cambio. Los modelos y el análisis del impacto del cambio ofrecen: Flexibilidad y adaptabilidad a la hora de definir las arquitecturas software, facilitando el cambio durante el diseño incremental e iterativo de PLAs (cambios esperados o previstos) y su evolución (cambios no previstos). Asistencia en la verificación de la integridad arquitectónica mediante el análisis de impacto de los cambios en términos de dependencias entre decisiones de diseño, justificación de las decisiones de diseño, limitaciones, riesgos, etc. Orientación en la toma de decisiones derivadas del cambio mediante el análisis de impacto de los cambios en términos de componentes y conexiones. De esta manera, APLA se presenta como una solución para la construcción y evolución de PLAs de forma que puedan ser fácilmente refinadas iteración tras iteración de un ciclo de vida de líneas de producto ágiles. Dicha solución se ha implementado en una herramienta llamada FPLA (Flexible Product-Line Architecture) y ha sido validada mediante su aplicación en un proyecto de desarrollo de un sistema de gestión de medición en redes de energía eléctrica. Dicho proyecto ha sido desarrollado en una fábrica de software global en colaboración con la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid e Indra Software Labs.

Integrating software testing and run-time checking in an assertion verification framework

We have designed and implemented a framework that unifies unit testing and run-time verification (as well as static verification and static debugging). A key contribution of our approach is that a unified assertion language is used for all of these tasks. We first propose methods for compiling runtime checks for (parts of) assertions which cannot be verified at compile-time via program transformation. This transformation allows checking preconditions and postconditions, including conditional postconditions, properties at arbitrary program points, and certain computational properties. The implemented transformation includes several optimizations to reduce run-time overhead. We also propose a minimal addition to the assertion language which allows defining unit tests to be run in order to detect possible violations of the (partial) specifications expressed by the assertions. This language can express for example the input data for performing the unit tests or the number of times that the unit tests should be repeated. We have implemented the framework within the Ciao/CiaoPP system and effectively applied it to the verification of ISO-prolog compliance and to the detection of different types of bugs in the Ciao system source code. Several experimental results are presented that ¡Ilústrate different trade-offs among program size, running time, or levéis of verbosity of the messages shown to the user.

Context-sensitive multivariant assertion checking in modular programs

We propose a modular, assertion-based system for verification and debugging of large logic programs, together with several interesting models for checking assertions statically in modular programs, each with different characteristics and representing different trade-offs. Our proposal is a modular and multivariant extensión of our previously proposed abstract assertion checking model and we also report on its implementation in the CiaoPP system. In our approach, the specification of the program, given by a set of assertions, may be partial, instead of the complete specification required by raditional verification systems. Also, the system can deal with properties which cannot always be determined at compile-time. As a result, the proposed system needs to work with safe approximations: all assertions proved correct are guaranteed to be valid and all errors actual errors. The use of modular, context-sensitive static analyzers also allows us to introduce a new distinction between assertions checked in a particular context or checked in general.

Combined static and dynamic assertion-based debugging of constraint logic programs

We propose a general framework for assertion-based debugging of constraint logic programs. Assertions are linguistic constructions for expressing properties of programs. We define several assertion schemas for writing (partial) specifications for constraint logic programs using quite general properties, including user-defined programs. The framework is aimed at detecting deviations of the program behavior (symptoms) with respect to the given assertions, either at compile-time (i.e., statically) or run-time (i.e., dynamically). We provide techniques for using information from global analysis both to detect at compile-time assertions which do not hold in at least one of the possible executions (i.e., static symptoms) and assertions which hold for all possible executions (i.e., statically proved assertions). We also provide program transformations which introduce tests in the program for checking at run-time those assertions whose status cannot be determined at compile-time. Both the static and the dynamic checking are provably safe in the sense that all errors flagged are definite violations of the pecifications. Finally, we report briefly on the currently implemented instances of the generic framework.

Generation of reduced certificates in abstraction-carrying code

Abstraction-Carrying Code (ACC) has recently been proposed as a framework for mobile code safety in which the code supplier provides a program together with an abstraction whose validity entails compliance with a predefined safety policy. The abstraction plays thus the role of safety certifícate and its generation is carried out automatically by a fixed-point analyzer. The advantage of providing a (fixedpoint) abstraction to the code consumer is that its validity is checked in a single pass of an abstract interpretation-based checker. A main challenge is to reduce the size of certificates as much as possible while at the same time not increasing checking time. In this paper, we first introduce the notion of reduced certifícate which characterizes the subset of the abstraction which a checker needs in order to validate (and re-construct) the full certifícate in a single pass. Based on this notion, we then instrument a generic analysis algorithm with the necessary extensions in order to identify the information relevant to the checker.

Integrating software testing and run-time checking in an assertion verification framework.

We have designed and implemented a framework that unifies unit testing and run-time verification (as well as static verification and static debugging). A key contribution of our approach is that a unified assertion language is used for all of these tasks. We first propose methods for compiling runtime checks for (parts of) assertions which cannot be verified at compile-time via program transformation. This transformation allows checking preconditions and postconditions, including conditional postconditions, properties at arbitrary program points, and certain computational properties. The implemented transformation includes several optimizations to reduce run-time overhead. We also propose a minimal addition to the assertion language which allows defining unit tests to be run in order to detect possible violations of the (partial) specifications expressed by the assertions. This language can express for example the input data for performing the unit tests or the number of times that the unit tests should be repeated. We have implemented the framework within the Ciao/CiaoPP system and effectively applied it to the verification of ISO-prolog compliance and to the detection of different types of bugs in the Ciao system source code. Several experimental results are presented that illustrate different trade-offs among program size, running time, or levels of verbosity of the messages shown to the user.