Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study.

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

Pulmonary embolism severity index and troponin testing for the selection of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

Summary Background: The combination of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and troponin testing could help physicians identify appropriate patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) for early hospital discharge. Methods: This prospective cohort study included a total of 567 patients from a single center registry with objectively confirmed acute symptomatic PE. On the basis of the PESI, each patient was classified into 1 of 5 classes (I to V). At the time of hospital admission, patients had troponin I (cTnI) levels measured. The endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality within 30 days after diagnosis. We calculated the mortality rates in 4 patient groups: group 1: PESI class I-II plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 2: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 3: PESI classes I-II plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1); and group 4: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1). Results: The study cohort had a 30-day mortality of 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.6 to 12.5%). Mortality rates in the 4 groups were 1.3%, 14.2%, 0% and 15.4%, respectively. Compared to non-elevated cTnl, the low-risk PESI had a higher negative predictive value (NPV) (98.9% vs 90.8%) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) (0.1 vs 0.9) for predicting mortality. The addition of non-elevated cTnI to low-risk PESI did not improve the NPV or the NLR compared to either test alone. Conclusions: Compared to cTnl testing, PESI classification more accurately identified patients with PE who are at low risk of all-cause death within 30-days of presentation.

Diagnosis of right ventricular dysfunction in acute pulmonary embolism using helical computed tomography.

Forty-six consecutive patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) who underwent pulmonary angiography, helical computed tomography (CT), and echocardiography in the investigators' emergency department were studied. It was determined that the CT right ventricular (RV)/left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic area ratio was correlated with PE obstruction and echocardiography. A CT RV/LV area ratio &gt;1 had a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 88% in diagnosing significant PE. The present study suggests that helical CT may be used as a triage tool in acute PE for selecting high-risk patients, using calculation of the RV/LV area ratio to detect RV dysfunction.

Transcranial Doppler for predicting delayed cerebral ischemia after subarachnoid hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: Transcranial Doppler (TCD) is widely used to monitor the temporal course of vasospasm after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), but its ability to predict clinical deterioration or infarction from delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) remains controversial. We sought to determine the prognostic utility of serial TCD examination after SAH. METHODS: We analyzed 1877 TCD examinations in 441 aneurysmal SAH patients within 14 days of onset. The highest mean blood flow velocity (mBFV) value in any vessel before DCI onset was recorded. DCI was defined as clinical deterioration or computed tomographic evidence of infarction caused by vasospasm, with adjudication by consensus of the study team. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios for DCI risk after controlling for other risk factors. RESULTS: DCI occurred in 21% of patients (n = 92). Multivariate predictors of DCI included modified Fisher computed tomographic score (P = 0.001), poor clinical grade (P = 0.04), and female sex (P = 0.008). After controlling for these variables, all TCD mBFV thresholds between 120 and 180 cm/s added a modest degree of incremental predictive value for DCI at nearly all time points, with maximal sensitivity by SAH day 8. However, the sensitivity of any mBFV more than 120 cm/s for subsequent DCI was only 63%, with a positive predictive value of 22% among patients with Hunt and Hess grades I to III and 36% in patients with Hunt and Hess grades IV and V. Positive predictive value was only slightly higher if mBFV exceeded 180 cm/s. CONCLUSION: Increased TCD flow velocities imply only a mild incremental risk of DCI after SAH, with maximal sensitivity by day 8. Nearly 40% of patients with DCI never attained an mBFV more than 120 cm/s during the course of monitoring. Given the poor overall sensitivity of TCD, improved methods for identifying patients at high risk for DCI after SAH are needed.

The potential of metastatic lymph nodes to predict positive resection margins in patients with resectable pancreatic cancer

Objective: Despite progress during recent decades, long-term outcome¦of patients with pancreatic cancer remains dismal. Since positive resection¦margins and metastatic lymph nodes are known risk factors for early tumor¦recurrence, patients at risk should be identified and could potentially benefit¦from preoperative radio-chemotherapy. This study aimed to assess whether the¦presence of lymph node metastasis could be used to predict positive resection¦margins in patients with pancreatic cancer.¦Methods: A series of 146 patients (82 male, 64 female, median age 68 years)¦underwent pancreatic head resection for various malignant diseases (pancreatic¦ductal adenocarcinoma, biliary cancer, periampullary cancer) at our institution¦from 2000 to 2011. Patients were identified from our prospective database¦that collects more than 60 single items of all patients undergoing pancreatic¦resection. Lymph node metastasis and positive resection margins were all¦confirmed by histological evaluation. Positive predictive value (PPV), negative¦predictive value (NPV), sensitivity and specificity were calculated to assess¦the predictive value of metastatic lymph nodes regarding tumor-free (R0) and¦tumor-involved (R1) resection margins.¦Results: There were 110 specimens (76%) with tumor-positive lymph nodes¦and 36 specimens with tumor-negative lymph nodes. Resection margins were¦positive in 47 specimens (32%) and negative in 99 specimens. Sensitivity of¦tumor-positive lymph nodes to detect positive resection margins was 96%, and¦the NPV was 94%. In contrast, specificity was 34% and the PPV was 41%.¦Conclusion: Patients with resectable pancreatic cancer, who have no lymph¦node metastasis, are at very low risk to have positive resection margins (2 of¦36 patients, NPV 94%). In contrast, more than one third of patients with¦metastatic lymph nodes are at increased risk for an incomplete tumor resection¦(sensitivity 96%). If lymph nodesmetastases are highly suspected at preoperative¦staging, a neoadjuvant treatment strategy should be considered to increase the¦R0 resection rate.

Infective endocarditis.

Infective endocarditis (IE) is lethal if not aggressively treated with antibiotics alone or in combination with surgery. The epidemiology of this condition has substantially changed over the past four decades, especially in industrialized countries. Once a disease that predominantly affected young adults with previously well-identified valve disease--mostly chronic rheumatic heart disease--IE now tends to affect older patients and new at-risk groups, including intravenous-drug users, patients with intracardiac devices, and patients exposed to healthcare-associated bacteremia. As a result, skin organisms (for example, Staphylococcus spp.) are now reported as the pathogen in these populations more often than oral streptococci, which still prevail in the community and in native-valve IE. Moreover, progress in molecular diagnostics has helped to improve the diagnosis of poorly cultivable pathogens, such as Bartonella spp. and Tropheryma whipplei, which are responsible for blood-culture-negative IE more often than expected. Epidemiological data indicate that IE mostly occurs independently of medico-surgical procedures, and that circumstantial antibiotic prophylaxis is likely to protect only a minute proportion of individuals at risk. Therefore, new strategies to prevent IE--including improvement of dental hygiene, decontamination of carriers of Staphylococcus aureus, vaccination, and, possibly, antiplatelet therapy--must be explored.

Should biomarkers be used to design personalized medicine for the treatment of glioblastoma?

Significant progress has been made in understanding the molecular pathogenesis of gliomas and in predicting general outcome depending on a limited set of clinical parameters and molecular markers. However, methylation of the O⁶-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) gene promoter is the only molecular marker linked to sensitivity of a specific treatment, that is, alkylating agent chemotherapy, and this predictive value may be limited to glioblastoma. Moreover, in the absence of potent alternative drugs, temozolomide chemotherapy should not be withheld from patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma without MGMT promoter methylation in general practice. In the context of clinical trials, however, irrespective of whether classical cytotoxic drugs, tyrosine kinase inhibitors or antiangiogenic agents are used, tissue should be centrally collected. Appropriate research programs should seek to define enriched patient populations for future trials and ultimately facilitate individualized cancer treatments.

Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

Predictions of the MCMI-III personality disorders from NEO-PI-R domains and facets: Comparison between American and Spanish samples

Este estudio ex post facto analiza las relaciones entre las dimensiones y facetas del NEO-PI-R y los 14 trastornos de personalidad del MCMI-III en una muestra no clínica española (N = 674). Se exploran las diferencias y similitudes con los resul- tados de Dyce y O’Connor en una muestra americana con los mismos instrumentos. Como se esperaba, los análisis factoriales de facetas reteniendo cinco factores mostraron un modelo de relaciones muy similar entre ambas muestras, con un coeficiente de la congruencia total de 0,92, y coeficientes de congruencia de factor aceptables, salvo para el factor Apertura (0,68). En consonancia con las predicciones de Widiger y Widiger et al. los porcentajes de correlaciones significativas estaban alrededor de 60% en ambas muestras, y la mayoría coincidían. El análisis de regresión múltiple con dimensiones también reveló un gran parecido entre los resultados americanos y españoles, Neuroticismo fue el predictor más relacionado con los trastornos de personalidad. Se encontraron diferencias en las regresiones por facetas, aunque la varianza explicada fue prácticamente la misma que en las dimensiones. Se discute la validez transcultural y el valor predictivo del NEO-PI-R sobre los trastornos de personalidad del MCMI-III, junto con las ventajas relativas de las facetas sobre las dimensiones.

Predicting neurological outcome after cardiac arrest.

Purpose of reviewTherapeutic hypothermia and aggressive management of postresuscitation disease considerably improved outcome after adult cardiac arrest over the past decade. However, therapeutic hypothermia alters prognostic accuracy. Parameters for outcome prediction, validated by the American Academy of Neurology before the introduction of therapeutic hypothermia, need further update.Recent findingsTherapeutic hypothermia delays the recovery of motor responses and may render clinical evaluation unreliable. Additional modalities are required to predict prognosis after cardiac arrest and therapeutic hypothermia. Electroencephalography (EEG) can be performed during therapeutic hypothermia or shortly thereafter; continuous/reactive EEG background strongly predicts good recovery from cardiac arrest. On the contrary, unreactive/spontaneous burst-suppression EEG pattern, together with absent N20 on somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP), is almost 100% predictive of irreversible coma. Therapeutic hypothermia alters the predictive value of serum markers of brain injury [neuron-specific enolase (NSE), S-100B]. Good recovery can occur despite NSE levels >33 mu g/l, thus this cut-off value should not be used to guide therapy. Diffusion MRI may help predicting long-term neurological sequelae of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy.SummaryAwakening from postanoxic coma is increasingly observed, despite early absence of motor signs and frank elevation of serum markers of brain injury. A new multimodal approach to prognostication is therefore required, which may particularly improve early prediction of favorable clinical evolution after cardiac arrest.

Diabetes risk scores and death: predictability and practicability in two different populations.

The aim was to examine the capacity of commonly used type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk scores to predict overall mortality. The US-based NHANES III (n = 3138; 982 deaths) and the Swiss-based CoLaus study (n = 3946; 191 deaths) were used. The predictive value of eight T2DM risk scores regarding overall mortality was tested. The Griffin score, based on few self-reported parameters, presented the best (NHANES III) and second best (CoLaus) predictive capacity. Generally, the predictive capacity of scores based on clinical (anthropometrics, lifestyle, history) and biological (blood parameters) data was not better than of scores based solely on clinical self-reported data. T2DM scores can be validly used to predict mortality risk in general populations without diabetes. Comparison with other scores could further show whether such scores also suit as a screening tool for quick overall health risk assessment.

Performance of parental history for the targeted screening of hypertension in children.

OBJECTIVES: Several guidelines recommend universal screening for hypertension in childhood and adolescence. Targeted screening to children with parental history of hypertension could be a more efficient strategy than universal screening. Therefore, we assessed the association between parental history of hypertension and hypertension in children, and estimated the sensitivity, specificity, negative, and positive predictive values of parental history of hypertension for hypertension in children. METHODS: The present study was a school-based cross-sectional study including 5207 children aged 10-14 years from all public 6th grade classes in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Children had hypertension if they had sustained elevated blood pressure over three separate visits. RESULTS: In children, the prevalence of hypertension was 2.2%. Some 8.5% of mothers and 12.9% of fathers reported to be hypertensive. Maternal history of hypertension (odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.2-3.3) and paternal history of hypertension (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.4-3.6) were independent risk factors for hypertension in children. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of parental history of hypertension for the identification of hypertension in children was low (from 4% for both parents' positive history up to 41% for at least one parent's positive history). Positive predictive values were also low (between 4 and 5%). CONCLUSION: Children with hypertensive parents were at higher risk of hypertension. Nevertheless, parental history of hypertension helped only marginally to identify hypertension in offspring. Targeting screening only toward children with a parental history of hypertension may not be a substantially better strategy to identify hypertension in children compared with universal screening.

Preventing invasive candida infections. Where could we do better?

Invasive candidiasis is associated with high mortality rates, ranging from 35% to 60%, in the range reported for septic shock. The epidemiology and pathogenesis of invasive candidiasis differ according to the patient's immune status; the majority of cases in immunocompromised hosts are candidaemia, whereas non-candidaemic systemic candidiasis accounts for the majority of cases in critically ill patients. In contrast to candidaemia, non-candidaemic systemic candidiasis is difficult to prove, especially in critically ill patients. Up to 80% of these patients are colonized, but only 5-30% develop invasive infection. The differentiation of colonization and proven infection is challenging, and evolution from the former to the latter requires seven to 10 days. This continuum from colonization of mucosal surfaces to local invasion and then invasive infection makes it difficult to identify those critically ill patients likely to benefit most from antifungal prophylaxis or early empirical antifungal treatment. Early empirical treatment of non-candidaemic systemic candidiasis currently relies on the positive predictive value of risk assessment strategies, such as the colonization index, candida score, and predictive rules based on combinations of risk factors such as candida colonization, broad-spectrum antibiotics, and abdominal surgery. Although guidelines recently scored these strategies as being supported by limited evidence, they are widely used at bedside and have substantially decreased the incidence of invasive candidiasis.

Mid-gut ACTH-secreting neuroendocrine tumor unmasked with (18)F-dihydroxyphenylalanine-positron emission tomography.

Ectopic ACTH Cushing's syndrome (EAS) is often caused by neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) of lungs, pancreas, thymus, and other less frequent locations. Localizing the source of ACTH can be challenging. A 64-year-old man presented with rapidly progressing fatigue, muscular weakness, and dyspnea. He was in poor condition and showed facial redness, proximal amyotrophy, and bruises. Laboratory disclosed hypokalemia, metabolic alkalosis, and markedly elevated ACTH and cortisol levels. Pituitary was normal on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and bilateral inferior petrosal sinus blood sampling with corticotropin-releasing hormone stimulation showed no significant central-to-periphery gradient of ACTH. Head and neck, thoracic and abdominal computerized tomography (CT), MRI, somatostatin receptor scintigraphy (SSRS), and (18)F-deoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) failed to identify the primary tumor. (18)F-dihydroxyphenylalanine (F-DOPA)-PET/CT unveiled a 20-mm nodule in the jejunum and a metastatic lymph node. Segmental jejunum resection showed two adjacent NETs, measuring 2.0 and 0.5 cm with a peritoneal metastasis. The largest tumor expressed ACTH in 30% of cells. Following surgery, after a transient adrenal insufficiency, ACTH and cortisol levels returned to normal values and remain normal over a follow-up of 26 months. Small mid-gut NETs are difficult to localize on CT or MRI, and require metabolic imaging. Owing to low mitotic activity, NETs are generally poor candidates for FDG-PET, whereas SSRS shows poor sensitivity in EAS due to intrinsically low tumor concentration of type-2 somatostatin receptors (SST2) or to receptor down regulation by excess cortisol. However, F-DOPA-PET, which is related to amine precursor uptake by NETs, has been reported to have high positive predictive value for occult EAS despite low sensitivity, and constitutes a useful alternative to more conventional methods of tumor localization. LEARNING POINTS: Uncontrolled high cortisol levels in EAS can be lethal if untreated.Surgical excision is the keystone of NETs treatment, thus tumor localization is crucial.Most cases of EAS are caused by NETs, which are located mainly in the lungs. However, small gut NETs are elusive to conventional imaging and require metabolic imaging for detection.FDG-PET, based on tumor high metabolic rate, may not detect NETs that have low mitotic activity. SSRS may also fail, due to absent or low concentration of SST2, which may be down regulated by excess cortisol.F-DOPA-PET, based on amine-precursor uptake, can be a useful method to localize the occult source of ACTH in EAS when other methods have failed.