Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Majorana fermions in superconducting wires: Effects of long-range hopping, broken time-reversal symmetry, and potential landscapes

We present a comprehensive study of two of the most experimentally relevant extensions of Kitaev's spinless model of a one-dimensional p-wave superconductor: those involving (i) longer-range hopping and superconductivity and (ii) inhomogeneous potentials. We commence with a pedagogical review of the spinless model and, as a means of characterizing topological phases exhibited by the systems studied here, we introduce bulk topological invariants as well as those derived from an explicit consideration of boundary modes. In time-reversal symmetric systems, we find that the longer range hopping leads to topological phases characterized by multiple Majorana modes. In particular, we investigate a spin model that respects a duality and maps to a fermionic model with multiple Majorana modes; we highlight the connection between these topological phases and the broken symmetry phases in the original spin model. In the presence of time-reversal symmetry breaking terms, we show that the topological phase diagram is characterized by an extended gapless regime. For the case of inhomogeneous potentials, we explore phase diagrams of periodic, quasiperiodic, and disordered systems. We present a detailed mapping between normal state localization properties of such systems and the topological phases of the corresponding superconducting systems. This powerful tool allows us to leverage the analyses of Hofstadter's butterfly and the vast literature on Anderson localization to the question of Majorana modes in superconducting quasiperiodic and disordered systems, respectively. We briefly touch upon the synergistic effects that can be expected in cases where long-range hopping and disorder are both present.

Predictability of nonstationary time series using wavelet and EMD based ARMA models

Research has been undertaken to ascertain the predictability of non-stationary time series using wavelet and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) based time series models. Methods have been developed in the past to decompose a time series into components. Forecasting of these components combined with random component could yield predictions. Using this ideology, wavelet and EMD analyses have been incorporated separately which decomposes a time series into independent orthogonal components with both time and frequency localizations. The component series are fit with specific auto-regressive models to obtain forecasts which are later combined to obtain the actual predictions. Four non-stationary streamflow sites (USGS data resources) of monthly total volumes and two non-stationary gridded rainfall sites (IMD) of monthly total rainfall are considered for the study. The predictability is checked for six and twelve months ahead forecasts across both the methodologies. Based on performance measures, it is observed that wavelet based method has better prediction capabilities over EMD based method despite some of the limitations of time series methods and the manner in which decomposition takes place. Finally, the study concludes that the wavelet based time series algorithm can be used to model events such as droughts with reasonable accuracy. Also, some modifications that can be made in the model have been discussed that could extend the scope of applicability to other areas in the field of hydrology. (C) 2013 Elesvier B.V. All rights reserved.

Selection of Optimal Time-to-go in Generalized Vector Explicit Guidance

A new method of selection of time-to-go (t(go)) for Generalized Vector Explicit Guidance (GENEX) law have been proposed in this paper. t(go) is known to be an important parameter in the control and cost function of GENEX guidance law. In this paper the formulation has been done to find an optimal value of t(go) that minimizes the performance cost. Mechanization of GENEX with this optimal t(go) reduces the lateral acceleration demand and consequently increases the range of the interceptor. This new formulation of computing t(go) comes in closed form and thus it can be implemented onboard. This new formulation is applied in the terminal phase of an surface-to-air interceptor for an angle constrained engagement. Results generated by simulation justify the use of optimal t(go).

Time Correlations Of Pressure In Isotropic Turbulence

The time correlations of pressure modes in stationary isotropic turbulence are investigated under the Kraichnan and Tennekes "random sweeping" hypothesis. A simple model is obtained which predicts a universal form for the time correlations. It implies that the decorrelation process of pressure fluctuations in time is mainly dominated by the sweeping velocity, and the pressure correlations have the same decorrelation time scales as the velocity correlations. These results are verified using direct numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence at two moderate Reynolds numbers; the mode correlations collapse to the universal form when the time separations are scaled by wavenumber times the sweeping velocity, and the ratios of the correlation coefficients of pressure modes to those of velocity modes are approximately unity for the entire range of time separation. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

On the computation of space-time correlations by large-eddy simulation

The effect of subgrid-scale (SGS) modeling on velocity (space-) time correlations is investigated in decaying isotropic turbulence. The performance of several SGS models is evaluated, which shows superiority of the dynamic Smagorinsky model used in conjunction with the multiscale large-eddy simulation (LES) procedure. Compared to the results of direct numerical simulation, LES is shown to underpredict the (un-normalized) correlation magnitude and slightly overpredict the decorrelation time scales. This can lead to inaccurate solutions in applications such as aeroacoustics. The underprediction of correlation functions is particularly severe for higher wavenumber modes which are swept by the most energetic modes. The classic sweeping hypothesis for stationary turbulence is generalized for decaying turbulence and used to analyze the observed discrepancies. Based on this analysis, the time correlations are determined by the wavenumber energy spectra and the sweeping velocity, which is the square root of the total energy. Hence, an accurate prediction of the instantaneous energy spectra is most critical to the accurate computation of time correlations. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

The motion and the core structure of a geostrophic vortex - one-time scale inner solution and the motion of the vortex

By means of the matched asymptotic expansion method with one-time scale analysis we have shown that the inviscid geostrophic vortex solution represents our leading solution away from the vortex. Near the vortex there is a viscous core structure, with the length scale O(a). In the core the viscous stresses (or turbulent stresses) are important, the variations of the velocity and the equivalent height are finite and dependent of time. It also has been shown that the leading inner solutions of the core structure are the same for two different time scales of S/(ghoo)1/2 and S/a (ghoo)1/2. Within the accuracy of O(a) the velocity of a geostrophic vortex center is equal to the velocity of the local background flow, where the vortex is located, in the absence of the vortex. Some numerical examples demonstrate the contributions of these results.

Time and Fate in Shakespeare’s Othello and Cinthio’s "The Moor of Venice"

[Introduction]Giraldi Cinthio’s short story "The Moor of Venice" forms the basis for William Shakespeare’s tragedy Othello. In addition to altering a number of minor aspects of the original tale, Shakespeare also introduces several overarching changes to the narrative by shortening the time frame of the story and excluding fate as a primary driving force of the plot. By diminishing the consequences of time and fate, Shakespeare allows the characters and their inner motivations to be at the forefront of the action.

Contributions to time series data mining departing from the problem of road travel time modeling

194 p.

Influence of soak time and fish accumulation on catches of reef fishes in a multispecies trap survey

Catch rates from fishery-independent surveys often are assumed to vary in proportion to the actual abundance of a population, but this approach assumes that the catchability coefficient (q) is constant. When fish accumulate in a gear, the rate at which the gear catches fish can decline, and, as a result, catch asymptotes and q declines with longer fishing times. We used data from long-term trap surveys (1990–2011) in the southeastern U.S. Atlantic to determine whether traps saturated for 8 reef fish species because of the amount of time traps soaked or the level of fish accumulation (the total number of individuals of all fish species caught in a trap). We used a delta-generalized-additive model to relate the catch of each species to a variety of predictor variables to determine how catch was influenced by soak time and fish accumulation after accounting for variability in catch due to the other predictor variables in the model. We found evidence of trap saturation for all 8 reef fish species examined. Traps became saturated for most species across the range of soak times examined, but trap saturation occurred for 3 fish species because of fish accumulation levels in the trap. Our results indicate that, to infer relative abundance levels from catch data, future studies should standardize catch or catch rates with nonlinear regression models that incorporate soak time, fish accumulation, and any other predictor variable that may ultimately influence catch. Determination of the exact mechanisms that cause trap saturation is a critical need for accurate stock assessment, and our results indicate that these mechanisms may vary considerably among species.

Wave forecasts associated with hurricane landfalls in the vicinity of Cape Lookout, North Carolina

Hurricanes can cause extensive damage to the coastline and coastal communities due to wind-generated waves and storm surge. While extensive modeling efforts have been conducted regarding storm surge, there is far less information about the effects of waves on these communities and ecosystems as storms make landfall. This report describes a preliminary use of NCCOS’ WEMo (Wave Exposure Model; Fonseca and Malhotra 2010) to compute the wind wave exposure within an area of approximately 25 miles radius from Beaufort, North Carolina for estuarine waters encompassing Bogue Sound, Back Sound and Core Sound during three hurricane landfall scenarios. The wind wave heights and energy of a site was a computation based on wind speed, direction, fetch and local bathymetry. We used our local area (Beaufort, North Carolina) as a test bed for this product because it is frequently impacted by hurricanes and we had confidence in the bathymetry data. Our test bed conditions were based on two recent Hurricanes that strongly affected this area. First, we used hurricane Isabel which made landfall near Beaufort in September 2003. Two hurricane simulations were run first by passing hurricane Isabel along its actual path (east of Beaufort) and second by passing the same storm to the west of Beaufort to show the potential effect of the reversed wind field. We then simulated impacts by a hurricane (Ophelia) with a different landfall track, which occurred in September of 2005. The simulations produced a geographic description of wave heights revealing the changing wind and wave exposure of the region as a consequence of landfall location and storm intensity. This highly conservative simulation (water levels were that of low tide) revealed that many inhabited and developed shorelines would receive wind waves for prolonged periods of time at heights far above that found during even the top few percent of non-hurricane events. The simulations also provided a sense for how rapidly conditions could transition from moderate to highly threatening; wave heights were shown to far exceed normal conditions often long before the main body of the storm arrived and importantly, at many locations that could impede and endanger late-fleeing vessels seeking safe harbor. When joined with other factors, such as storm surge and event duration, we anticipate that the WEMo forecasting tool will have significant use by local emergency agencies and the public to anticipate the relative exposure of their property arising as a function of storm location and may also be used by resource managers to examine the effects of storms in a quantitative fashion on local living marine resources.

Fish lost at sea: the effect of soak time on pelagic longline catches

Our analyses of observer records reveal that abundance estimates are strongly influenced by the timing of longline operations in relation to dawn and dusk and soak time— the amount of time that baited hooks are available in the water. Catch data will underestimate the total mortality of several species because hooked animals are “lost at sea.” They fall off, are removed, or escape from the hook before the longline is retrieved. For example, longline segments with soak times of 20 hours were retrieved with fewer skipjack tuna and seabirds than segments with soak times of 5 hours. The mortality of some seabird species is up to 45% higher than previously estimated. The effects of soak time and timing vary considerably between species. Soak time and exposure to dusk periods have strong positive effects on the catch rates of many species. In particular, the catch rates of most shark and billfish species increase with soak time. At the end of longline retrieval, for example, expected catch rates for broadbill swordfish are four times those at the beginning of retrieval. Survival of the animal while it is hooked on the longline appears to be an important factor determining whether it is eventually brought on board the vessel. Catch rates of species that survive being hooked (e.g. blue shark) increase with soak time. In contrast, skipjack tuna and seabirds are usually dead at the time of retrieval. Their catch rates decline with time, perhaps because scavengers can easily remove hooked animals that are dead. The results of our study have important implications for fishery management and assessments that rely on longline catch data. A reduction in soak time since longlining commenced in the 1950s has introduced a systematic bias in estimates of mortality levels and abundance. The abundance of species like seabirds has been over-estimated in recent years. Simple modifications to procedures for data collection, such as recording the number of hooks retrieved without baits, would greatly improve mortality estimates.

Evidence of shark predation and scavenging on fishes equipped with pop-up satellite archival tags

Over the past few years, pop-up satellite archival tags (PSATs) have been used to investigate the behavior, movements, thermal biology, and postrelease mortality of a wide range of large, highly migratory species including bluefin tuna (Block et al., 2001), swordfish (Sedberry and Loefer, 2001), blue marlin (Graves et al., 2002), striped marlin (Domeier and Dewar, 2003), and white sharks (Boustany et al., 2002). PSAT tag technology has improved rapidly, and current tag models are capable of collecting, processing, and storing large amounts of information on light level, temperature, and pressure (depth) for a predetermined length of time before the release of these tags from animals. After release, the tags float to the surface, and transmit the stored data to passing satellites of the Argos system.

Application of domain decomposition and transmission line modelling techniques to 2D, time-domain, finite element problems

In this paper a recently published finite element method, which combines domain decomposition with a novel technique for solving nonlinear magnetostatic finite element problems is described. It is then shown how the method can be extended to, and optimised for, the solution of time-domain problems. © 1999 IEEE.

A transonic vane for use downstream of a pressure gain combustor

Replacing a conventional combustor in a gas turbine with one that produces a pressure gain could significantly raise cycle efficiency. For this efficiency gain to be achieved the exit flow from the combustor must be coupled to the downstream turbine such that the pressure gain produced by the combustor is retained and such that the turbine efficiency is maintained. The exit flow from a pressure gain combustor will often contain a high velocity unsteady jet. It has previously been proposed that ejectors should be used to harness the energy in the unsteady jet, this paper proposes combining an ejector with the first stage vane, producing a single compact component that preserves the combustion driven pressure gain and delivers a suitable flow to the turbine so that its efficiency is not compromised. This novel component has been experimentally tested for the first time. The performance of this first prototype design is found to be low due to high levels of loss generated by secondary flows. However possible mitigation strategies are discussed. It is shown that the unsteadiness at exit form the ejector-vane is reduced compared to the inlet flow. If a pulse combustor were incorporated into a gas turbine, it is unlikely that the level of unsteadiness experienced in a downstream rotor will be significantly larger that that due to the periodic passing of upstream wakes. Copyright © 2010 by Jonathan Heffer.