936 resultados para Parametric sensitivity analysis
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Free surface flows in inclined channels can develop periodic instabilities that are propagated downstream as shock waves with well-defined wavelengths and amplitudes. Such disturbances are called roll waves and are common in channels, torrential lava, landslides, and avalanches. The prediction and detection of such waves over certain types of structures and environments are useful for the prevention of natural risks. In this work, a mathematical model is established using a theoretical approach based on Cauchy's equations with the Herschel-Bulkley rheological model inserted into the viscous part of the stress tensor. This arrangement can adequately represent the behavior of muddy fluids, such as water-clay mixture. Then, taking into account the shallow water and the Rankine-Hugoniot's (shock wave) conditions, the equation of the roll wave and its properties, profile, and propagation velocity are determined. A linear stability analysis is performed with an emphasis on determining the condition that allows the generation of such instabilities, which depends on the minimum Froude number. A sensitivity analysis on the numerical parameters is performed, and numerical results including the influence of the Froude number, the index flow and dimensionless yield stress on the amplitude, the wavelength of roll waves and the propagation velocity of roll waves are shown. We show that our numerical results were in agreement with Coussot's experimental results (1994).
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Decision making is one of the most important factors for growth and future, both from a business, as in people's life and attitudes in the simplest of everyday day. This work aims to assist decision making in buying a laser cut machine, a manufacturer of auto parts and wheels, and later this technique can be considered to acquisition of other equipment. In this case was used the AHP to aid the decision by multiple criteria. First we analyzed the most important criteria of the current machine for the application of the method and were later made the application and sensitivity analysis
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Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE
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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS
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In this work, nanometric displacement amplitudes of a Piezoelectric Flextensional Actuator (PFA) designed using the topology optimization technique and operating in its linear range are measured by using a homodyne Michelson interferometer. A new improved version of the J1...J4 method for optical phase measurements, named J1...J5 method, is presented, which is of easier implementation than the original one. This is a passive phase detection scheme, unaffected by signal fading, source instabilities and changes in visibility. Experimental results using this improvement were compared with those obtained by using the J1... J4, J1...J6(pos) and J1...J 6(neg) methods, concluding that the dynamic range is increased while maintaining the sensitivity. Analysis based on the 1/f voltage noise and random fading show the new method is more stable to phase drift than all those methods. © 2012 IEEE.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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The objective of this study was to dimension the economic risks and returns on adopters of genetically modified (GM) maize in one of the major corn producing regions of São Paulo state. We performed analysis of variation of the quantities and prices of insecticides used, productivity gains, and variation in the price differentials between GM maize and conventional hybrids seeds, according to account to the maize prices oscillation during the period studied. The net benefits methodology was used, in other words, the economic gains minus the costs of GM technology under risk conditions were calculated. The net benefits was calculated as a function of four critical variables: 1) GM maize productivity; 2) costs of pest control; 3) maize price; 4) GM seeds cost. The probability distribution functions of these critical variables were estimated and included in the net benefit equation. Using the Monte Carlo simulation methodology, the following indicator sets were estimated: central tendency measurements, variability in net benefits (total benefits minus total costs), sensitivity analysis of the net benefits in relation to the critical variables, and finally, a map of the risk to GM technology adopters. These indicators allow one to design economic scenarios associated with their probability of occurring. The results showed probability of 85% to positive gains to the farmers who adopted the transgenic maize seed cultivation. The variable with the greatest impact on the farmers' income was the reduction in productivity loss, that means, as higher is the maize productivity, higher will be the net income. The average gain was US$ 137,41 (R$ 2.45/US$)per hectare with the adoption of transgenic maize seed when compared to conventional maize seed.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Stage-structured models that integrate demography and dispersal can be used to identify points in the life cycle with large effects on rates of population spatial spread, information that is vital in the development of containment strategies for invasive species. Current challenges in the application of these tools include: (1) accounting for large uncertainty in model parameters, which may violate assumptions of ‘‘local’’ perturbation metrics such as sensitivities and elasticities, and (2) forecasting not only asymptotic rates of spatial spread, as is usually done, but also transient spatial dynamics in the early stages of invasion. We developed an invasion model for the Diaprepes root weevil (DRW; Diaprepes abbreviatus [Coleoptera: Curculionidae]), a generalist herbivore that has invaded citrus-growing regions of the United States. We synthesized data on DRW demography and dispersal and generated predictions for asymptotic and transient peak invasion speeds, accounting for parameter uncertainty. We quantified the contributions of each parameter toward invasion speed using a ‘‘global’’ perturbation analysis, and we contrasted parameter contributions during the transient and asymptotic phases. We found that the asymptotic invasion speed was 0.02–0.028 km/week, although the transient peak invasion speed (0.03– 0.045 km/week) was significantly greater. Both asymptotic and transient invasions speeds were most responsive to weevil dispersal distances. However, demographic parameters that had large effects on asymptotic speed (e.g., survival of early-instar larvae) had little effect on transient speed. Comparison of the global analysis with lower-level elasticities indicated that local perturbation analysis would have generated unreliable predictions for the responsiveness of invasion speed to underlying parameters. Observed range expansion in southern Florida (1992–2006) was significantly lower than the invasion speed predicted by the model. Possible causes of this mismatch include overestimation of dispersal distances, demographic rates, and spatiotemporal variation in parameter values. This study demonstrates that, when parameter uncertainty is large, as is often the case, global perturbation analyses are needed to identify which points in the life cycle should be targets of management. Our results also suggest that effective strategies for reducing spread during the asymptotic phase may have little effect during the transient phase. Includes Appendix.
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In this paper, we propose a cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Geometric distribution and the time to event follow a Birnbaum Saunders distribution. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a Geometric Birnbaum Saunders model with cure rate. Finally, to analyze a data set from the medical area. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The log-Burr XII regression model for grouped survival data is evaluated in the presence of many ties. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, where the times are grouped in k intervals, and we fit discrete lifetime regression models to the data. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed model, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, so-called global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to these measures, the total local influence and influential estimates are also used. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to assess the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of the proposed model for grouped survival. A real data set is analyzed using a regression model for grouped data.
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For the first time, we introduce a generalized form of the exponentiated generalized gamma distribution [Cordeiro et al. The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data, J. Statist. Comput. Simul. 81 (2011), pp. 827-842.] that is the baseline for the log-exponentiated generalized gamma regression model. The new distribution can accommodate increasing, decreasing, bathtub- and unimodal-shaped hazard functions. A second advantage is that it includes classical distributions reported in the lifetime literature as special cases. We obtain explicit expressions for the moments of the baseline distribution of the new regression model. The proposed model can be applied to censored data since it includes as sub-models several widely known regression models. It therefore can be used more effectively in the analysis of survival data. We obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters by considering censored data. We show that our extended regression model is very useful by means of two applications to real data.
Thermal design of a tray-type distillation column of an ammonia/water absorption refrigeration cycle
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The goal of this paper is to present an analysis of a segmented weir sieve-tray distillation column for a 17.58 kW (5 TR) ammonia/water absorption refrigeration cycle. Balances of mass and energy were performed based on the method of Ponchon-Savarit, from which it was possible to determine the ideal number of trays. The analysis showed that four ideal trays were adequate for that small absorption refrigeration system having the feeding system to the column right above the second tray. It was carried out a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters. Vapor and liquid pressure drop constraint along with ammonia and water mass flow ratios defined the internal geometrical sizes of the column, such as the column diameter and height, as well as other designing parameters. Due to the lack of specific correlations, the present work was based on practical correlations used in the petrochemical and beverage production industries. The analysis also permitted to obtain the recommended values of tray spacing in order to have a compact column. The geometry of the tray turns out to be sensitive to the charge of vapor and, to a lesser extent, to the load of the liquid, being insensible to the diameter of tray holes. It was found a column efficiency of 50%. Finally, the paper presents some recommendations in order to have an optimal geometry for a compact size distillation column. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.