Mimicking the behaviour of idiotypic AIS robot controllers using probabilistic systems

Previous work has shown that robot navigation systems that employ an architecture based upon the idiotypic network theory of the immune system have an advantage over control techniques that rely on reinforcement learning only. This is thought to be a result of intelligent behaviour selection on the part of the idiotypic robot. In this paper an attempt is made to imitate idiotypic dynamics by creating controllers that use reinforcement with a number of different probabilistic schemes to select robot behaviour. The aims are to show that the idiotypic system is not merely performing some kind of periodic random behaviour selection, and to try to gain further insight into the processes that govern the idiotypic mechanism. Trials are carried out using simulated Pioneer robots that undertake navigation exercises. Results show that a scheme that boosts the probability of selecting highly-ranked alternative behaviours to 50% during stall conditions comes closest to achieving the properties of the idiotypic system, but remains unable to match it in terms of all round performance.

Early consumption of liquids different to breast milk in Mexican infants under 1 year: results of the probabilistic National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012

Introduction: Studies on infant dietary intake do not generally focus on the types of liquids consumed. Objective: To document by age and breastfeeding status, the types of liquids present in the diet of Mexican children under 1 year of age (< 1 y) who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012 (ENSANUT-2012). Methods: Analysis of the infant < 1 y feeding practices from the ENSANUT-2012 survey in non-breastfed (non-BF) and breastfed (BF) infants by status quo for the consumption of liquids grouped in: water, formula, fortified LICONSA milk, nutritive liquids (NL; thin cereal-based gruel with water or milk and coffee with milk) and non-nutritive liquids (non-NL) as sugared water, water-based drinks, tea, beans or chicken broth, aguamiel and coffee. In this infants < 1 y we analyzed the not grouped consumption of liquids in the first three days of life (newborns) from the mother's recall. Percentage and confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated adjusting for survey design. Statistical differences were analyzed by Z test. Results: We observed a high consumption of human milk followed by formula (56.7%) and water (51.1%) in infants under 6 months of age (< 6 mo). The proportion of non-BF infants consuming non-NL was higher than for BF infants (p < 0.05). More than 60% of older infants (6 mo and < 1 y) consumed formula and were non-BF. In newborns formula consumption was predominant, followed by tea or infusion and water. Conclusions: Non-breast milk liquids are present undesirably in Mexican infants' diet and non-NL are consumed earlier than NL, revealing inadequate early dietary practices.

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.

Comunidades energéticas sustentáveis: estudo de Implementação de uma comunidade eólica no Algarve

Tese de Doutoramento, Gestão da Inovação e do Território, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

The efficiency of multivariate macroeconomic forecasts

We examine the efficiency of multivariate macroeconomic forecasts by estimating a vector autoregressive model on the forecast revisions of four variables (GDP, inflation, unemployment and wages). Using a data set of professional forecasts for the G7 countries, we find evidence of cross‐series revision dynamics. Specifically, forecasts revisions are conditionally correlated to the lagged forecast revisions of other macroeconomic variables, and the sign of the correlation is as predicted by conventional economic theory. This indicates that forecasters are slow to incorporate news across variables. We show that this finding can be explained by forecast underreaction.

Jointly event extraction and visualization on Twitter via probabilistic modelling

Event extraction from texts aims to detect structured information such as what has happened, to whom, where and when. Event extraction and visualization are typically considered as two different tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on probabilistic modelling to jointly extract and visualize events from tweets where both tasks benefit from each other. We model each event as a joint distribution over named entities, a date, a location and event-related keywords. Moreover, both tweets and event instances are associated with coordinates in the visualization space. The manifold assumption that the intrinsic geometry of tweets is a low-rank, non-linear manifold within the high-dimensional space is incorporated into the learning framework using a regularization. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can effectively deal with both event extraction and visualization and performs remarkably better than both the state-of-the-art event extraction method and a pipeline approach for event extraction and visualization.

Probabilistic Security Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow Models

In restructured power systems, generation and commercialization activities became market activities, while transmission and distribution activities continue as regulated monopolies. As a result, the adequacy of transmission network should be evaluated independent of generation system. After introducing the constrained fuzzy power flow (CFPF) as a suitable tool to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy 'reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity' (as stated, for instance, at European Directive 2009/72/EC), the aim is now showing how this approach can be used in conjunction with probabilistic criteria in security analysis. In classical security analysis models of power systems are considered the composite system (generation plus transmission). The state of system components is usually modeled with probabilities and loads (and generation) are modeled by crisp numbers, probability distributions or fuzzy numbers. In the case of CFPF the component’s failure of the transmission network have been investigated. In this framework, probabilistic methods are used for failures modeling of the transmission system components and possibility models are used to deal with 'reasonable demands'. The enhanced version of the CFPF model is applied to an illustrative case.

A probabilistic approach to user mobility prediction for wireless services.

Mobile and wireless networks have long exploited mobility predictions, focused on predicting the future location of given users, to perform more efficient network resource management. In this paper, we present a new approach in which we provide predictions as a probability distribution of the likelihood of moving to a set of future locations. This approach provides wireless services a greater amount of knowledge and enables them to perform more effectively. We present a framework for the evaluation of this new type of predictor, and develop 2 new predictors, HEM and G-Stat. We evaluate our predictors accuracy in predicting future cells for mobile users, using two large geolocation data sets, from MDC [11], [12] and Crawdad [13]. We show that our predictors can successfully predict with as low as an average 2.2% inaccuracy in certain scenarios.

Analysis of human posterior EEG alpha frequency as a function of implicit learning of probabilistic lateralized stimuli in a visual detection task

Alpha oscillatory activity has long been associated with perceptual and cognitive processes related to attention control. The aim of this study is to explore the task-dependent role of alpha frequency in a lateralized visuo-spatial detection task. Specifically, the thesis focuses on consolidating the scientific literature's knowledge about the role of alpha frequency in perceptual accuracy, and deepening the understanding of what determines trial-by-trial fluctuations of alpha parameters and how these fluctuations influence overall task performance. The hypotheses, confirmed empirically, were that different implicit strategies are put in place based on the task context, in order to maximize performance with optimal resource distribution (namely alpha frequency, associated positively with performance): “Lateralization” of the attentive resources towards one hemifield should be associated with higher alpha frequency difference between contralateral and ipsilateral hemisphere; “Distribution” of the attentive resources across hemifields should be associated with lower alpha frequency difference between hemispheres; These strategies, used by the participants according to their brain capabilities, have proven themselves adaptive or maladaptive depending on the different tasks to which they have been set: "Distribution" of the attentive resources seemed to be the best strategy when the distribution probability between hemifields was balanced: i.e. the neutral condition task. "Lateralization" of the attentive resources seemed to be more effective when the distribution probability between hemifields was biased towards one hemifield: i.e., the biased condition task.

[gait Speed, Grip Strength And Self-rated Health Among The Elderly: Data From The Fibra Campinas Network, São Paulo, Brazil].

The article seeks to investigate patterns of performance and relationships between grip strength, gait speed and self-rated health, and investigate the relationships between them, considering the variables of gender, age and family income. This was conducted in a probabilistic sample of community-dwelling elderly aged 65 and over, members of a population study on frailty. A total of 689 elderly people without cognitive deficit suggestive of dementia underwent tests of gait speed and grip strength. Comparisons between groups were based on low, medium and high speed and strength. Self-related health was assessed using a 5-point scale. The males and the younger elderly individuals scored significantly higher on grip strength and gait speed than the female and oldest did; the richest scored higher than the poorest on grip strength and gait speed; females and men aged over 80 had weaker grip strength and lower gait speed; slow gait speed and low income arose as risk factors for a worse health evaluation. Lower muscular strength affects the self-rated assessment of health because it results in a reduction in functional capacity, especially in the presence of poverty and a lack of compensatory factors.

[do Elderly Individuals With A Cognitive Handicap Have Worse Oral Health?].

A comparison of the oral health of elderly people with and without a cognitive handicap was assessed. The cognitive condition, the indices of decayed, missing, filled teeth (DMFT), decayed, filled roots (DFR), the need for dental treatment, the presence of plaque (P), calculus (C), the community periodontal index (CPI), the rate of periodontal attachment loss (PAL), edentulism, prosthetic use and the need for prosthetics were evaluated in a complex probabilistic sample by conglomerates of the elderly (65-74 years). PASW(r) 17.0 was used for the statistical analyses with correction for the design effect, applying the Mann Whitney and chi-square test with 95% reliability. A total of 736 elderly individuals were interviewed and examined. Those with cognitive impairment had higher average DMFT, DFR and lower average healthy sextant CPI, a lower prevalence of sextants without plaque/calculus, use of prosthetics and higher prevalence of edentulism and need for prosthetics. Elderly individuals with a cognitive handicap had poorer oral health.

[need For Orthodontic Treatment Among Brazilian Adolescents: Evaluation Based On Public Health].

To identify the prevalence and the severity of malocclusions and to analyze factors associated with the need for orthodontic treatment of Brazilian adolescents. This exploratory, cross-sectional study was carried out based on secondary data from the national epidemiological survey on oral health in Brazil (2002-2003). Socio-demographic conditions, self-perception, and the existence and degree of malocclusion, using the Dental Aesthetic Index, were evaluated in 16,833 adolescent Brazilians selected by probabilistic sample by conglomerates. The dependent variable - need orthodontic treatment - was estimated from the severity of malocclusion. The magnitude and direction of the association in bivariate and multivariate analyzes from a Robust Poisson regression was estimated RESULTS: The majority of the adolescents needed orthodontic treatment (53.2%). In the multivariate analysis, the prevalence of the need for orthodontic treatment was larger among females, non-whites, those that perceived a need for treatment, and those that perceived their appearance as normal, bad, or very bad. The need for orthodontic treatment was smaller among those that lived in the Northeast and Central West macro-regions compared to those living in Southeast Brazil and it was also smaller among those that perceived their chewing to be normal or their oral health to be bad or very bad. There was a high prevalence of orthodontic treatment need among adolescents in Brazil and this need was associated with demographic and subjective issues. The high prevalence of orthodontic needs in adolescents is a challenge to the goals of Brazil's universal public health system.

Métodos probabilístico e determinístico para diagnóstico da necessidade de subsolagem de solos agrícolas

This paper presents two techniques to evaluate soil mechanical resistance to penetration as an auxiliary method to help in a decision-making in subsoiling operations. The decision is based on the volume of soil mobilized as a function of the considered critical soil resistance to penetration in each case. The first method, probabilistic, uses statistical techniques to define the volume of soil to be mobilized. The other method, deterministic, determines the percentage of soil to be mobilized and its spatial distribution. Both cases plot the percentage curves of experimental data related to the soil mechanical resistance to penetration equal or larger to the established critical level and the volume of soil to be mobilized as a function of critical level. The deterministic method plots showed the spatial distribution of the data with resistance to penetration equal or large than the critical level. The comparison between mobilized soil curves as a function of critical level using both methods showed that they can be considered equivalent. The deterministic method has the advantage of showing the spatial distribution of the critical points.

Factors associated with low life life satisfaction in community-dwelling elderly: FIBRA Study

The objectives were to identify factors associated with decreased life satisfaction in community-dwelling elderly and describe such factors according to gender and age bracket. The study interviewed 2,472 elderly individuals 65 years or older without cognitive deficits suggestive of dementia, in probabilistic samples from seven Brazilian cities. All measures were self-reported except for functional performance, indicated by handgrip and gait speed. Women had more chronic diseases, worse functional performance, and greater social involvement when compared to men. The oldest participants showed worse functional performance and less social involvement when compared to the youngest. Low satisfaction was associated with three or more diseases, memory problems, low social involvement, low handgrip strength, and urinary incontinence. The authors conclude that health, functional performance, and social involvement interact with well-being, so interventions targeting these areas can favor quality of life for the elderly.