Cardiac troponin testing and the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. The SWIss Venous ThromboEmbolism Registry (SWIVTER)

A low simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI), defined as age ≤80 years and absence of systemic hypotension, tachycardia, hypoxia, cancer, heart failure, and lung disease, identifies low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). It is unknown whether cardiac troponin testing improves the prediction of clinical outcomes if the sPESI is not low. In the prospective Swiss Venous Thromboembolism Registry, 369 patients with acute PE and a troponin test (conventional troponin T or I, highly sensitive troponin T) were enrolled from 18 hospitals. A positive test result was defined as a troponin level above the manufacturers assay threshold. Among the 106 (29%) patients with low sPESI, the rate of mortality or PE recurrence at 30 days was 1.0%. Among the 263 (71%) patients with high sPESI, 177 (67%) were troponin-negative and 86 (33%) troponin-positive; the rate of mortality or PE recurrence at 30 days was 4.6% vs. 12.8% (p=0.015), respectively. Overall, risk assessment with a troponin test (hazard ratio [HR] 3.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-8.37; p=0.008) maintained its prognostic value for mortality or PE recurrence when adjusted for sPESI (HR 5.80, 95%CI 0.76-44.10; p=0.09). The combination of sPESI with a troponin test resulted in a greater area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.81) than sPESI alone (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.57-0.68) (p=0.023). In conclusion, although cardiac troponin testing may not be required in patients with a low sPESI, it adds prognostic value for early death and recurrence for patients with a high sPESI.

The Lower Limb Functional Index: development and clinimetric properties

Background Existing lower-limb, region-specific, patient-reported outcome measures have clinimetric limitations, including limitations in psychometric characteristics (eg, lack of internal consistency, lack of responsiveness, measurement error) and the lack of reported practical and general characteristics. A new patient-reported outcome measure, the Lower Limb Functional Index (LLFI), was developed to address these limitations. Objective The purpose of this study was to overcome recognized deficiencies in existing lower-limb, region-specific, patient-reported outcome measures through: (1) development of a new lower-extremity outcome scale (ie, the LLFI) and (2) evaluation of the clinimetric properties of the LLFI using the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS) as a criterion measure. Design This was a prospective observational study. Methods The LLFI was developed in a 3-stage process of: (1) item generation, (2) item reduction with an expert panel, and (3) pilot field testing (n=18) for reliability, responsiveness, and sample size requirements for a larger study. The main study used a convenience sample (n=127) from 10 physical therapy clinics. Participants completed the LLFI and LEFS every 2 weeks for 6 weeks and then every 4 weeks until discharge. Data were used to assess the psychometric, practical, and general characteristics of the LLFI and the LEFS. The characteristics also were evaluated for overall performance using the Measurement of Outcome Measures and Bot clinimetric assessment scales. Results The LLFI and LEFS demonstrated a single-factor structure, comparable reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [2,1]=.97), scale width, and high criterion validity (Pearson r=.88, with 95% confidence interval [CI]). Clinimetric performance was higher for the LLFI compared with the LEFS on the Measurement of Outcome Measures scale (96% and 95%, respectively) and the Bot scale (100% and 83%, respectively). The LLFI, compared with the LEFS, had improved responsiveness (standardized response mean=1.75 and 1.64, respectively), minimal detectable change with 90% CI (6.6% and 8.1%, respectively), and internal consistency (α=.91 and .95, respectively), as well as readability with reduced user error and completion and scoring times. Limitations Limitations of the study were that only participants recruited from outpatient physical therapy clinics were included and that no specific conditions or diagnostic subgroups were investigated. Conclusion The LLFI demonstrated sound clinimetric properties. There was lower response error, efficient completion and scoring, and improved responsiveness and overall performance compared with the LEFS. The LLFI is suitable for assessment of lower-limb function.

LC-MS/MS method for simultaneous analysis of uracil, 5,6-dihydrouracil, 5-fluorouracil and 5-fluoro-5,6-dihydrouracil in human plasma for therapeutic drug monitoring and toxicity prediction in cancer patients

The chemotherapeutic drug 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) is widely used for treating solid tumors. Response to 5-FU treatment is variable with 10-30% of patients experiencing serious toxicity partly explained by reduced activity of dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD). DPD converts endogenous uracil (U) into 5,6-dihydrouracil (UH(2) ), and analogously, 5-FU into 5-fluoro-5,6-dihydrouracil (5-FUH(2) ). Combined quantification of U and UH(2) with 5-FU and 5-FUH(2) may provide a pre-therapeutic assessment of DPD activity and further guide drug dosing during therapy. Here, we report the development of a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry assay for simultaneous quantification of U, UH(2) , 5-FU and 5-FUH(2) in human plasma. Samples were prepared by liquid-liquid extraction with 10:1 ethyl acetate-2-propanol (v/v). The evaporated samples were reconstituted in 0.1% formic acid and 10 μL aliquots were injected into the HPLC system. Analyte separation was achieved on an Atlantis dC(18) column with a mobile phase consisting of 1.0 mm ammonium acetate, 0.5 mm formic acid and 3.3% methanol. Positively ionized analytes were detected by multiple reaction monitoring. The analytical response was linear in the range 0.01-10 μm for U, 0.1-10 μm for UH(2) , 0.1-75 μm for 5-FU and 0.75-75 μm for 5-FUH(2) , covering the expected concentration ranges in plasma. The method was validated following the FDA guidelines and applied to clinical samples obtained from ten 5-FU-treated colorectal cancer patients. The present method merges the analysis of 5-FU pharmacokinetics and DPD activity into a single assay representing a valuable tool to improve the efficacy and safety of 5-FU-based chemotherapy.

Early molecular and cytogenetic response is predictive for long-term progression-free and overall survival in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML)

In the face of competing first-line treatment options for CML, early prediction of prognosis on imatinib is desirable to assure favorable survival or otherwise consider the use of a second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI). A total of 1303 newly diagnosed imatinib-treated patients (pts) were investigated to correlate molecular and cytogenetic response at 3 and 6 months with progression-free and overall survival (PFS, OS). The persistence of BCR-ABL transcript levels >10% according to the international scale (BCR-ABL(IS)) at 3 months separated a high-risk group (28% of pts; 5-year OS: 87%) from a group with >1-10% BCR-ABL(IS) (41% of pts; 5-year OS: 94%; P=0.012) and from a group with 1% BCR-ABL(IS) (31% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P=0.004). Cytogenetics identified high-risk pts by >35% Philadelphia chromosome-positive metaphases (Ph+, 27% of pts; 5-year OS: 87%) compared with 35% Ph+ (73% of pts; 5-year OS: 95%; P=0.036). At 6 months, >1% BCR-ABL(IS) (37% of pts; 5-year OS: 89%) was associated with inferior survival compared with 1% (63% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P<0.001) and correspondingly >0% Ph+ (34% of pts; 5-year OS: 91%) compared with 0% Ph+ (66% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P=0.015). Treatment optimization is recommended for pts missing these landmarks.

Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism

The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE.

Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

Background Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS. Methods Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization. Results During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS. Conclusions The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

Prediction of codeine toxicity in infants and their mothers using a novel combination of maternal genetic markers

Substantial variation exists in response to standard doses of codeine ranging from poor analgesia to life-threatening central nervous system (CNS) depression. We aimed to discover the genetic markers predictive of codeine toxicity by evaluating the associations between polymorphisms in cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6), UDP-glucuronosyltransferase 2B7 (UGT2B7), P-glycoprotein (ABCB1), mu-opioid receptor (OPRM1), and catechol O-methyltransferase (COMT) genes, which are involved in the codeine pathway, and the symptoms of CNS depression in 111 breastfeeding mothers using codeine and their infants. A genetic model combining the maternal risk genotypes in CYP2D6 and ABCB1 was significantly associated with the adverse outcomes in infants (odds ratio (OR) 2.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-4.48; P(trend) = 0.0002) and their mothers (OR 2.74; 95% CI 1.55-4.84; P(trend) = 0.0005). A novel combination of the genetic and clinical factors predicted 87% of the infant and maternal CNS depression cases with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 87%. Genetic markers can be used to improve the outcome of codeine therapy and are also probably important for other opioids sharing common biotransformation pathways.

Perinuclear antineutrophilic cytoplasmic antibody and response to treatment in diarrheic dogs with food responsive disease or inflammatory bowel disease

The goal of this study was to investigate the correlation between perinuclear antineutrophilic cytoplasmic antibody (pANCA) and clinical scores before and after treatment in diarrheic dogs with food-responsive disease (FRD) or inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). pANCA serology was evaluated prospectively by indirect immunofluorescence in 65 dogs with signs of gastrointestinal disease, and if positive, pANCA antibody titers were determined. Thirty-nine dogs with FRD responded to a novel diet, and 26 dogs with IBD were treated with corticosteroids. The severity of clinical signs was scored by means of a canine IBD activity index (CIBDAI). At initial examination, a significantly (P = .002) higher percentage of dogs were pANCA-positive in the FRD group (62%) compared with the IBD group (23%). pANCA titers were significantly higher (P = .003) before treatment in the FRD group (median titer 100) compared with the IBD group (median titer 1). However, there was no difference in pANCA titers between the groups after respective treatments because dogs in the IBD group had a significant increase in pANCA titer after treatment. The CIBDAI score decreased significantly (P < .001) after treatment in both groups (74% moderate to severe in FRD dogs before versus 8% after treatment; 85% moderate to severe in IBD dogs before versus 32% after treatment). There was no correlation between pANCA status in FRD or IBD dogs before treatment and scores for CIBDAI, endoscopy, or histopathology before or after treatment, except for the endoscopic duodenal score in dogs with FRD after treatment (P = .03). A positive pANCA test before therapy may aid in the diagnosis of FRD.

The -308 tumour necrosis factor-alpha gene polymorphism predicts therapeutic response to TNFalpha-blockers in rheumatoid arthritis and spondyloarthritis patients

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the G-to-A polymorphism at position -308 in the promoter of the tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNFalpha) gene influences the therapeutic response to TNFalpha-blockers in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and ankylosing spondylitis (AS). METHODS: A total of 54 patients with RA, 10 with PsA and 22 with AS were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction for the -308 TNFalpha promoter polymorphism. They were treated with infliximab (n = 63), adalimumab (n = 10) or etanercept (n = 13). Clinical response was assessed after 24 weeks by the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) for RA and PsA, and the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Activity Index (BASDAI) for AS patients. RESULTS: All patients with the A/A genotype (n = 3, all RA) and two patients with the A/G genotype (AS) failed to respond to anti-TNF treatment. Irrespective of the underlying disease, moderate response (n = 44) was predominantly associated with the A/G genotype (A/G 18/22, G/G 4/22), whereas good response (n = 59) was exclusively seen in patients with the G/G genotype. The average improvement in the DAS28 score was 0.83 in the A/A, 1.50 in the A/G and 2.64 in the G/G group of RA and PsA patients (P < 0.0001). The BASDAI score in AS improved on average by 1.21 in the A/G and by 3.30 in the G/G group (P < 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The data suggest that humans with a TNFalpha -308 G/G genotype are better responders to anti-TNFalpha treatment than those with A/A or A/G genotypes independent of the treated rheumatic disease (RA, PsA or AS).

Stimulation induced variability of pulse plethysmography does not discriminate responsiveness to intubation

BACKGROUND: Hypnotic depth but not haemodynamic response to painful stimulation can be measured with various EEG-based anaesthesia monitors. We evaluated the variation of pulse plethysmography amplitude induced by an electrical tetanic stimulus (PPG variation) as a potential measure for analgesia and predictor of haemodynamic responsiveness during general anaesthesia. METHODS: Ninety-five patients, ASA I or II, were randomly assigned to five groups [Group 1: bispectral index (BIS) (range) 40-50, effect site remifentanil concentration 1 ng ml(-1);Group 2: BIS 40-50, remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1); Group 3: BIS 40-50, remifentanil 4 ng ml(-1); Group 4: BIS 25-35, remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1); Group 5: BIS 55-65, remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1)]. A 60 mA tetanic stimulus was applied for 5 s on the ulnar nerve. From the digitized pulse oximeter wave recorded on a laptop computer, linear and non-linear parameters of PPG variation during the 60 s period after stimulation were computed. The haemodynamic response to subsequent orotracheal intubation was recorded. The PPG variation was compared between groups and between responders and non-responders to intubation (anova). Variables independently predicting the response were determined by logistic regression. RESULTS: The probability of a response to tracheal intubation was 0.77, 0.47, 0.05, 0.18 and 0.52 in Groups 1-5, respectively (P<0.03). The PPG variability was significantly higher in responders than in non-responders but it did not improve the prediction of the response to tracheal intubation based on BIS level and effect site remifentanil concentration. CONCLUSION: Tetanic stimulation induced PPG variation does not reflect the analgesic state in a wide clinical range of surgical anaesthesia.

MULTIPLE DISEASES IN CARRIER PROBABILITY ESTIMATION: ACCOUNTING FOR SURVIVING ALL CANCERS OTHER THAN BREAST AND OVARY IN BRCAPRO

Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if a family member has a disease with higher probability density among mutation carriers, but the model does not account for it, then the carrier probability is deflated. However, even if a family only has diseases the model accounts for, if the model excludes a mutation-related disease, then the carrier probability will be inflated. In light of these results, we extend BRCAPRO to account for surviving all non-breast/ovary cancers as a single outcome. The extension also enables BRCAPRO to extract more useful information from male relatives. Using 1500 familes from the Cancer Genetics Network, accounting for surviving other cancers improves BRCAPRO’s concordance index from 0.758 to 0.762 (p = 0.046), improves its positive predictive value from 35% to 39% (p < 10−6) without impacting its negative predictive value, and improves its overall calibration, although calibration slightly worsens for those with carrier probability < 10%. Copyright c 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Anticipatory cognitive stress appraisal and the acute procoagulant stress response in men

OBJECTIVE: Acute mental stress elicits blood hypercoagulability. Following a transactional stress model, we investigated whether individuals who anticipate stress as more threatening, challenging, and as exceeding their coping skills show greater stress reactivity of the coagulation activation marker D-dimer, indicating fibrin generation in plasma. METHODS: Forty-seven men (mean age 44 +/- 14 years; mean blood pressure [MBP] 101 +/- 12 mm Hg; mean body mass index [BMI] 26 +/- 3 kg/m(2)) completed the Primary Appraisal Secondary Appraisal (PASA) scale before undergoing the Trier Social Stress Test (combination of mock job interview and mental arithmetic task). Heart rate, blood pressure, plasma catecholamines, and D-dimer levels were measured before and after stress, and during recovery up to 60 minutes poststress. RESULTS: Hemodynamic measures, catecholamines, and D-dimer changed across all time points (p values <.001). The PASA "Stress Index" (integrated measure of transactional stress perception) correlated with total D-dimer area under the curve (AUC) between rest and 60 minutes poststress (r = 0.30, p = .050) and with D-dimer change from rest to immediately poststress (r = 0.29, p = .046). Primary appraisal (combined "threat" and "challenge") correlated with total D-dimer AUC (r = 0.37, p = .017), D-dimer stress change (r = 0.41, p = .004), and D-dimer recovery (r = 0.32, p = .042). "Challenge" correlated more strongly with D-dimer stress change than "threat" (p = .020). Primary appraisal (DeltaR(2) = 0.098, beta = 0.37, p = .019), and particularly its subscale "challenge" (DeltaR(2) = 0.138, beta = 0.40, p = .005), predicted D-dimer stress change independently of age, BP, BMI, and catecholamine change. CONCLUSIONS: Anticipatory cognitive appraisal determined the extent of coagulation activation to and recovery from stress in men. Particularly individuals who anticipated the stressor as more challenging and also more threatening had a greater fibrin stress response.

Model Evaluation Based on the Distribution of Estimated Absolute Prediction Error

The construction of a reliable, practically useful prediction rule for future response is heavily dependent on the "adequacy" of the fitted regression model. In this article, we consider the absolute prediction error, the expected value of the absolute difference between the future and predicted responses, as the model evaluation criterion. This prediction error is easier to interpret than the average squared error and is equivalent to the mis-classification error for the binary outcome. We show that the distributions of the apparent error and its cross-validation counterparts are approximately normal even under a misspecified fitted model. When the prediction rule is "unsmooth", the variance of the above normal distribution can be estimated well via a perturbation-resampling method. We also show how to approximate the distribution of the difference of the estimated prediction errors from two competing models. With two real examples, we demonstrate that the resulting interval estimates for prediction errors provide much more information about model adequacy than the point estimates alone.

Coronary collateral flow in response to endurance exercise training

BACKGROUND: In humans, it is not known whether physical endurance exercise training promotes coronary collateral growth. The following hypotheses were tested: the expected collateral flow reduction after percutaneous coronary intervention of a stenotic lesion is prevented by endurance exercise training; collateral flow supplied to an angiographically normal coronary artery improves in response to exercise training; there is a direct relationship between the change of fitness after training and the coronary collateral flow change. METHODS AND RESULTS: Forty patients (age 61+/-8 years) underwent a 3-month endurance exercise training program with baseline and follow-up assessments of coronary collateral flow. Patients were divided into an exercise training group (n=24) and a sedentary group (n=16) according to the fact whether they adhered or not to the prescribed exercise program, and whether or not they showed increased endurance (VO2max in ml/min per kg) and performance (W/kg) during follow-up versus baseline bicycle spiroergometry. Collateral flow index (no unit) was obtained using pressure sensor guidewires positioned in the coronary artery undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention and in a normal vessel. In the vessel initially undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, there was an increase in collateral flow index among exercising but not sedentary patients from 0.155+/-0.081 to 0.204+/-0.056 (P=0.03) and from 0.189+/-0.084 to 0.212+/-0.077 (NS), respectively. In the normal vessel, collateral flow index changes were from 0.176+/-0.075 to 0.227+/-0.070 in the exercise group (P=0.0002), and from 0.219+/-0.103 to 0.238+/-0.086 in the sedentary group (NS). A direct correlation existed between the change in collateral flow index from baseline to follow-up and the respective alteration of VO2max (P=0.007) and Watt (P=0.03). CONCLUSION: A 3-month endurance exercise training program augments coronary collateral supply to normal vessels, and even to previously stenotic arteries having undergone percutaneous coronary intervention before initiating the program. There appears to be a dose-response relation between coronary collateral flow augmentation and exercise capacity gained.

Dosimetric impact of geometric errors due to respiratory motion prediction on dynamic multileaf collimator-based four-dimensional radiation delivery

The synchronization of dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) response with respiratory motion is critical to ensure the accuracy of DMLC-based four dimensional (4D) radiation delivery. In practice, however, a finite time delay (response time) between the acquisition of tumor position and multileaf collimator response necessitates predictive models of respiratory tumor motion to synchronize radiation delivery. Predicting a complex process such as respiratory motion introduces geometric errors, which have been reported in several publications. However, the dosimetric effect of such errors on 4D radiation delivery has not yet been investigated. Thus, our aim in this work was to quantify the dosimetric effects of geometric error due to prediction under several different conditions. Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for a lung patient were generated for anterior-posterior/posterior-anterior (AP/PA) beam arrangements at 6 and 18 MV energies to provide planned dose distributions. Respiratory motion data was obtained from 60 diaphragm-motion fluoroscopy recordings from five patients. A linear adaptive filter was employed to predict the tumor position. The geometric error of prediction was defined as the absolute difference between predicted and actual positions at each diaphragm position. Distributions of geometric error of prediction were obtained for all of the respiratory motion data. Planned dose distributions were then convolved with distributions for the geometric error of prediction to obtain convolved dose distributions. The dosimetric effect of such geometric errors was determined as a function of several variables: response time (0-0.6 s), beam energy (6/18 MV), treatment delivery (3D/4D), treatment type (conformal/IMRT), beam direction (AP/PA), and breathing training type (free breathing/audio instruction/visual feedback). Dose difference and distance-to-agreement analysis was employed to quantify results. Based on our data, the dosimetric impact of prediction (a) increased with response time, (b) was larger for 3D radiation therapy as compared with 4D radiation therapy, (c) was relatively insensitive to change in beam energy and beam direction, (d) was greater for IMRT distributions as compared with conformal distributions, (e) was smaller than the dosimetric impact of latency, and (f) was greatest for respiration motion with audio instructions, followed by visual feedback and free breathing. Geometric errors of prediction that occur during 4D radiation delivery introduce dosimetric errors that are dependent on several factors, such as response time, treatment-delivery type, and beam energy. Even for relatively small response times of 0.6 s into the future, dosimetric errors due to prediction could approach delivery errors when respiratory motion is not accounted for at all. To reduce the dosimetric impact, better predictive models and/or shorter response times are required.