Identification of glacial meltwater runoff in a karstic environment and its implication for present and future water availability

Glaciers all over the world are expected to continue to retreat due to the global warming throughout the 21st century. Consequently, future seasonal water availability might become scarce once glacier areas have declined below a certain threshold affecting future water management strategies. Particular attention should be paid to glaciers located in a karstic environment, as parts of the meltwater can be drained by underlying karst systems, making it difficult to assess water availability. In this study tracer experiments, karst modeling and glacier melt modeling are combined in order to identify flow paths in a high alpine, glacierized, karstic environment (Glacier de la Plaine Morte, Switzerland) and to investigate current and predict future downstream water availability. Flow paths through the karst underground were determined with natural and fluorescent tracers. Subsequently, geologic information and the findings from tracer experiments were assembled in a karst model. Finally, glacier melt projections driven with a climate scenario were performed to discuss future water availability in the area surrounding the glacier. The results suggest that during late summer glacier meltwater is rapidly drained through well-developed channels at the glacier bottom to the north of the glacier, while during low flow season meltwater enters into the karst and is drained to the south. Climate change projections with the glacier melt model reveal that by the end of the century glacier melt will be significantly reduced in the summer, jeopardizing water availability in glacier-fed karst springs.

Environment and climate of the last 51,000 years – new insights from the Potrok Aike maar lake Sediment Archive Drilling prOject (PASADO)

In this introductory paper we summarize the history and achievements of the Potrok Aike maar lake Sediment Archive Drilling prOject (PASADO), an interdisciplinary project embedded in the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP). The stringent multiproxy approach adopted in this research combined with radiocarbon and luminescence dating provided the opportunity to synthesize a large body of hydrologically relevant data from Laguna Potrok Aike (southern Patagonia, Argentina). At this site, lake level was high from 51 ka until the early Holocene when the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHW) were located further to the north. At 9.3 ka cal. BP the SHW moved southward and over the latitude of the study area (52 degrees S) causing a pronounced negative water balance with a lake level decrease of more than 50 m. Two millennia later, the SHW diminished in intensity and lake level rose to a subsequent maximum during the Little Ice Age. Since the 20th century, a strengthening of the SHW increased the evaporative stress resulting in a more negative water balance. A comparison of our data with other hydrological fluctuations at a regional scale in south-eastern Patagonia, provides new insights and also calls for better chronologies and high-resolution records of climate variability.

Predictive oncology: a review of multidisciplinary, multiscale in silico modeling linking phenotype, morphology and growth.

Empirical evidence and theoretical studies suggest that the phenotype, i.e., cellular- and molecular-scale dynamics, including proliferation rate and adhesiveness due to microenvironmental factors and gene expression that govern tumor growth and invasiveness, also determine gross tumor-scale morphology. It has been difficult to quantify the relative effect of these links on disease progression and prognosis using conventional clinical and experimental methods and observables. As a result, successful individualized treatment of highly malignant and invasive cancers, such as glioblastoma, via surgical resection and chemotherapy cannot be offered and outcomes are generally poor. What is needed is a deterministic, quantifiable method to enable understanding of the connections between phenotype and tumor morphology. Here, we critically assess advantages and disadvantages of recent computational modeling efforts (e.g., continuum, discrete, and cellular automata models) that have pursued this understanding. Based on this assessment, we review a multiscale, i.e., from the molecular to the gross tumor scale, mathematical and computational "first-principle" approach based on mass conservation and other physical laws, such as employed in reaction-diffusion systems. Model variables describe known characteristics of tumor behavior, and parameters and functional relationships across scales are informed from in vitro, in vivo and ex vivo biology. We review the feasibility of this methodology that, once coupled to tumor imaging and tumor biopsy or cell culture data, should enable prediction of tumor growth and therapy outcome through quantification of the relation between the underlying dynamics and morphological characteristics. In particular, morphologic stability analysis of this mathematical model reveals that tumor cell patterning at the tumor-host interface is regulated by cell proliferation, adhesion and other phenotypic characteristics: histopathology information of tumor boundary can be inputted to the mathematical model and used as a phenotype-diagnostic tool to predict collective and individual tumor cell invasion of surrounding tissue. This approach further provides a means to deterministically test effects of novel and hypothetical therapy strategies on tumor behavior.

FoxM1B transcriptionally regulates vascular endothelial growth factor expression and promotes the angiogenesis and growth of glioma cells.

We previously found that FoxM1B is overexpressed in human glioblastomas and that forced FoxM1B expression in anaplastic astrocytoma cells leads to the formation of highly angiogenic glioblastoma in nude mice. However, the molecular mechanisms by which FoxM1B enhances glioma angiogenesis are currently unknown. In this study, we found that vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a direct transcriptional target of FoxM1B. FoxM1B overexpression increased VEGF expression, whereas blockade of FoxM1 expression suppressed VEGF expression in glioma cells. Transfection of FoxM1 into glioma cells directly activated the VEGF promoter, and inhibition of FoxM1 expression by FoxM1 siRNA suppressed VEGF promoter activation. We identified two FoxM1-binding sites in the VEGF promoter that specifically bound to the FoxM1 protein. Mutation of these FoxM1-binding sites significantly attenuated VEGF promoter activity. Furthermore, FoxM1 overexpression increased and inhibition of FoxM1 expression suppressed the angiogenic ability of glioma cells. Finally, an immunohistochemical analysis of 59 human glioblastoma specimens also showed a significant correlation between FoxM1 overexpression and elevated VEGF expression. Our findings provide both clinical and mechanistic evidence that FoxM1 contributes to glioma progression by enhancing VEGF gene transcription and thus tumor angiogenesis.

A meta-analysis of cambium phenology and growth: linear and non-linear patterns in conifers of the northern hemisphere

Background and Aims Ongoing global warming has been implicated in shifting phenological patterns such as the timing and duration of the growing season across a wide variety of ecosystems. Linear models are routinely used to extrapolate these observed shifts in phenology into the future and to estimate changes in associated ecosystem properties such as net primary productivity. Yet, in nature, linear relationships may be special cases. Biological processes frequently follow more complex, non-linear patterns according to limiting factors that generate shifts and discontinuities, or contain thresholds beyond which responses change abruptly. This study investigates to what extent cambium phenology is associated with xylem growth and differentiation across conifer species of the northern hemisphere. Methods Xylem cell production is compared with the periods of cambial activity and cell differentiation assessed on a weekly time scale on histological sections of cambium and wood tissue collected from the stems of nine species in Canada and Europe over 1–9 years per site from 1998 to 2011. Key Results The dynamics of xylogenesis were surprisingly homogeneous among conifer species, although dispersions from the average were obviously observed. Within the range analysed, the relationships between the phenological timings were linear, with several slopes showing values close to or not statistically different from 1. The relationships between the phenological timings and cell production were distinctly non-linear, and involved an exponential pattern. Conclusions The trees adjust their phenological timings according to linear patterns. Thus, shifts of one phenological phase are associated with synchronous and comparable shifts of the successive phases. However, small increases in the duration of xylogenesis could correspond to a substantial increase in cell production. The findings suggest that the length of the growing season and the resulting amount of growth could respond differently to changes in environmental conditions.

Vulnerability and Growth. Developmental dynamics and differential effects of the loss of an intimate partner in the second half of life. IP 12: Study outline and first results

This working report gives an overview of the Individual Project 12 “Vulnerability and growth. Developmental dynamics and differential effects of the loss of an intimate partner in the second half of life” of the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research LIVES led by Pasqualina Perrig-Chiello, University of Bern. This longitudinal and interdisciplinary project aims at examining vulnerability and personal growth after a critical life event, namely the break-up of a long-term intimate relationship in the second half of life, be it due to divorce or due to bereavement. In this report we present details about the rationale, the main research questions, the hypotheses and the methods of the study. Special attention is given to the methodological approach. The authors give a first sample description and report on the validity of the data by comparing the sample with Swiss Labour Force Survey and Swiss Health Survey data.

Fall-related emergency department admission: fall environment and settings and related injury patterns in 6357 patients with special emphasis on the elderly

PRINCIPALS Throughout the world, falls are a major public health problem and a socioeconomic burden. Nevertheless there is little knowledge about how the injury types may be related to the aetiology and setting of the fall, especially in the elderly. We have therefore analysed all patients presenting with a fall to our Emergency Department (ED) over the past five years. METHODS Our retrospective data analysis comprised adult patients admitted to our Emergency Department between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2010, in relation to a fall. RESULTS Of a total of 6357 patients 78% (n = 4957) patients were younger than 75 years. The main setting for falls was patients home (n = 2239, 35.3%). In contrast to the younger patients, the older population was predominantly female (56.3% versus 38.6%; P < 0.0001). Older patients were more likely to fall at home and suffer from medical conditions (all P < 0.0001). Injuries to the head (P < 0.0001) and to the lower extremity (P < 0.019) occurred predominantly in the older population. Age was the sole predictor for recurrent falls (OR 1.2, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION Falls at home are the main class of falls for all age groups, particularly in the elderly. Fall prevention strategies must therefore target activities of daily living. Even though falls related to sports mostly take place in the younger cohort, a significant percentage of elderly patients present with falls related to sporting activity. Falls due to medical conditions were most likely to result in mild traumatic brain injury.

Impact of MET targeting on tumor-associated angiogenesis and growth of MET mutations-driven models of liver cancer

Deregulated expression of the MET receptor tyrosine kinase has been reported in up to 50% of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, the most abundant form of liver cancers, and is associated with decreased survival. Consequently, MET is considered as a molecular target in this malignancy, whose progression is highly dependent on extensive angiogenesis. Here we studied the impact of MET small molecule inhibitors on angiogenesis-associated parameters and growth of xenograft liver models consisting of cells expressing MET-mutated variants M1268T and Y1248H, which exhibit constitutive kinase activity. We demonstrate that MET mutations expression is associated with significantly increased production of vascular endothelial growth factor, which is blocked by MET targeting only in cells expressing the M1268T inhibitor-sensitive but not in the Y1248H inhibitor-resistant variant. Decrease in vascular endothelial growth factor production is also associated with reduction of tyrosine phopshorylation of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 expressed on primary liver sinusoidal endothelial cells and with inhibition of vessel formation. Furthermore, MET inhibition demonstrated an efficient anti-tumor activity and considerable reduction in microvessel density only against the M1268T-derived intrahepatic tumors. Collectively, our data support the role of targeting MET-associated angiogenesis as a major biological determinant for liver tumor growth control.

Transgenerational effects of land use on offspring performance and growth in Trifolium repens

entral European grasslands vary widely in productivity and in mowing and grazing regimes. The resulting differences in competition and heterogeneity among grasslands might have direct effects on plants, but might also affect the growth and morphology of their offspring through maternal effects or adaptive evolution. To test for such transgenerational effects, we grew plants of the clonal herb Trifolium repens from seeds collected in 58 grassland sites differing in productivity and mowing and grazing intensities in different treatments: without competition, with homogeneous competition, and with heterogeneous competition. In the competition-free treatment, T. repens from more productive, less frequently mown, and less intensively grazed sites produced more vegetative offspring, but this was not the case in the other treatments. When grown among or in close proximity to competitors, T. repens plants did not show preferential growth towards open spaces (i.e., no horizontal foraging), but did show strong vertical foraging by petiole elongation. In the homogeneous competition treatment, petiole length increased with the productivity of the parental site, but this was not the case in the heterogeneous competition treatment. Moreover, petiole length increased with mowing frequency and grazing intensity of the parental site in all but the homogeneous competition treatment. In summary, although the expression of differences between plants from sites with different productivities and land-use intensities depended on the experimental treatment, our findings imply that there are transgenerational effects of land use on the morphology and performance of T. repens.

In Utero Exposure to Antiretroviral Drugs: Effect on Birth Weight and Growth Among HIV-exposed Uninfected Children in Brazil.

BACKGROUND There are concerns about the effects of in utero exposure to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) on the development of HIV-exposed but uninfected (HEU) children. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether in utero exposure to ARVs is associated with lower birth weight/height and reduced growth during the first 2 years of life. METHODS This cohort study was conducted among HEU infants born between 1996 and 2010 in Tertiary children's hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Weight was measured by mechanical scale, and height was measured by measuring board. Z-scores for weight-for-age (WAZ), length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-length were calculated. We modeled trajectories by mixed-effects models and adjusted for mother's age, CD4 cell count, viral load, year of birth and family income. RESULTS A total of 588 HEU infants were included of whom 155 (26%) were not exposed to ARVs, 114 (19%) were exposed early (first trimester) and 319 (54%) later. WAZ were lower among infants exposed early compared with infants exposed later: adjusted differences were -0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.99 to -0.04, P = 0.02) at birth and -0.22 (95% CI: -0.47 to 0.04, P = 0.10) during follow-up. LAZ were lower during follow-up: -0.35 (95% CI: -0.63 to -0.08, P = 0.01). There were no differences in weight-for-length scores. Z-scores of infants exposed late during pregnancy were similar to unexposed infants. CONCLUSIONS In HEU children, early exposure to ARVs was associated with lower WAZ at birth and lower LAZ up to 2 years of life. Growth of HEU children needs to be monitored closely.

Corruption and Growth Under Weak Identification

The goal of this paper is to revisit the influential work of Mauro [1995] focusing on the strength of his results under weak identification. He finds a negative impact of corruption on investment and economic growth that appears to be robust to endogeneity when using two-stage least squares (2SLS). Since the inception of Mauro [1995], much literature has focused on 2SLS methods revealing the dangers of estimation and thus inference under weak identification. We reproduce the original results of Mauro [1995] with a high level of confidence and show that the instrument used in the original work is in fact 'weak' as defined by Staiger and Stock [1997]. Thus we update the analysis using a test statistic robust to weak instruments. Our results suggest that under Mauro's original model there is a high probability that the parameters of interest are locally almost unidentified in multivariate specifications. To address this problem, we also investigate other instruments commonly used in the corruption literature and obtain similar results.

Efficiency in Managing the Environment and the Opportunity Cost of Pollution Abatement

Using the directional distance function we study a cross section of 110 countries to examine the efficiency of management of the tradeoffs between pollution and income. The DEA model is reformulated to permit 'reverse disposability' of the bad output. Further, we interpret the optimal solution of the multiplier form of the DEA model as an iso-inefficiency line. This permits us to measure the shadow cost of the bad output for a country that is in the interior, rather than on the frontier of the production possibilities set. We also compare the relative environmental performance of countries in terms of emission intensity adjusted for technical efficiency. Only 10% of the countries are found to be on the frontier. Also, there is considerable inter-country variation in the imputed opportunity cost of CO2 reduction. Further, differences in technical efficiency contribute substantially to differences in the observed levels of CO2 intensity.

Cool-season turfgrass color and growth calibrated to leaf nitrogen

Tissue N analysis a tool available for N management of turfgrass. However, peer-reviewed calibration studies to determine optimum tissue N values are lacking. A field experiment with a mixed cool-season species lawn and a greenhouse experiment with Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis L.) were conducted across 2 yr, each with randomized complete block design. Treatments were N application rates between 0 and 587 kg N ha-1 yr-1. In the field experiment, clipping samples were taken monthly from May to September, dried, ground, and analyzed for total N. Clippings samples were collected one to two mowings after plots were fertilized. Linear plateau models comparing relative clipping yield, Commission Internationale de l' Eclairage hue, and CM1000 index to leaf N concentrations were developed. In the greenhouse experiment, clipping samples were taken every 2 wk from May to October and composited across sample dates for leaf N analysis. Color and clipping yields were related to leaf N concentrations using linear plateau models. These models indicated small marginal improvements in growth or color when leaf N exceeded 30 g kg-1, suggesting that a leaf N test can separate turf with optimum leaf N concentrations from turf with below optimum leaf N concentrations. Plateaus in leaf N concentrations with increasing N fertilizer rates suggest, however, that this test may be unable to identify sites with excess available soil N when turf has been mowed before tissue sampling.