997 resultados para Nonlinear Prediction


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A general asymptotic method based on the work of Krylov-Bogoliubov is developed to obtain the response of nonlinear over damped systems. A second-order system with both roots real is treated first and the method is then extended to higher-order systems. Two illustrative examples show good agreement with results obtained by numerical integration.

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Masonry strength is dependent upon characteristics of the masonry unit,the mortar and the bond between them. Empirical formulae as well as analytical and finite element (FE) models have been developed to predict structural behaviour of masonry. This paper is focused on developing a three dimensional non-linear FE model based on micro-modelling approach to predict masonry prism compressive strength and crack pattern. The proposed FE model uses multi-linear stress-strain relationships to model the non-linear behaviour of solid masonry unit and the mortar. Willam-Warnke's five parameter failure theory developed for modelling the tri-axial behaviour of concrete has been adopted to model the failure of masonry materials. The post failure regime has been modelled by applying orthotropic constitutive equations based on the smeared crack approach. Compressive strength of the masonry prism predicted by the proposed FE model has been compared with experimental values as well as the values predicted by other failure theories and Eurocode formula. The crack pattern predicted by the FE model shows vertical splitting cracks in the prism. The FE model predicts the ultimate failure compressive stress close to 85 of the mean experimental compressive strength value.

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Some new concepts characterizing the response of nonlinear systems are developed. These new concepts are denoted by the terms, the transient system equivalent, the response vector, and the space-phase components. This third concept is analyzed in comparison with the well-known technique of symmetrical components. The performance of a multiplicative feedback control system is represented by a nonlinear integro-differential equation; its solution is obtained by the principle of variation of parameters. The system response is treated as a vector and is resolved into its space-phase components. The individual effects of these components on the performance of the system are discussed. The suitability of the technique for the transient analysis of higher order nonlinear control systems is discussed.

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The scope of application of Laplace transforms presently limited to the study of linear partial differential equations, is extended to the nonlinear domain by this study. This has been achieved by modifying the definition of D transforms, put forth recently for the study of classes of nonlinear lumped parameter systems. The appropriate properties of the new D transforms are presented to bring out their applicability in the analysis of nonlinear distributed parameter systems.

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Sufficient conditions are given for the L2-stability of a class of feedback systems consisting of a linear operator G and a nonlinear gain function, either odd monotone or restricted by a power-law, in cascade, in a negative feedback loop. The criterion takes the form of a frequency-domain inequality, Re[1 + Z(jω)] G(jω) δ > 0 ω ε (−∞, +∞), where Z(jω) is given by, Z(jω) = β[Y1(jω) + Y2(jω)] + (1 − β)[Y3(jω) − Y3(−jω)], with 0 β 1 and the functions y1(·), y2(·) and y3(·) satisfying the time-domain inequalities, ∝−∞+∞¦y1(t) + y2(t)¦ dt 1 − ε, y1(·) = 0, t < 0, y2(·) = 0, t > 0 and ε > 0, and , c2 being a constant depending on the order of the power-law restricting the nonlinear function. The criterion is derived using Zames' passive operator theory and is shown to be more general than the existing criteria

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The interaction between large deflections, rotation effects and unsteady aerodynamics makes the dynamic analysis of rotating and flapping wing a nonlinear aeroelastic problem. This problem is governed by nonlinear periodic partial differential equations whose solution is needed to calculate the response and loads acting on vehicles using rotary or flapping wings for lift generation. We look at three important problems in this paper. The first problem shows the effect of nonlinear phenomenon coming from piezoelectric actuators used for helicopter vibration control. The second problem looks at the propagation on material uncertainty on the nonlinear response, vibration and aeroelastic stability of a composite helicopter rotor. The third problem considers the use of piezoelectric actuators for generating large motions in a dragonfly inspired flapping wing. These problems provide interesting insights into nonlinear aeroelasticity and show the likelihood of surprising phenomenon which needs to be considered during the design of rotary and flapping wing vehicle

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Nonlinear vibration analysis is performed using a C-0 assumed strain interpolated finite element plate model based on Reddy's third order theory. An earlier model is modified to include the effect of transverse shear variation along the plate thickness and Von-Karman nonlinear strain terms. Monte Carlo Simulation with Latin Hypercube Sampling technique is used to obtain the variance of linear and nonlinear natural frequencies of the plate due to randomness in its material properties. Numerical results are obtained for composite plates with different aspect ratio, stacking sequence and oscillation amplitude ratio. The numerical results are validated with the available literature. It is found that the nonlinear frequencies show increasing non-Gaussian probability density function with increasing amplitude of vibration and show dual peaks at high amplitude ratios. This chaotic nature of the dispersion of nonlinear eigenvalues is also r

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One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

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The swelling pressure of soil depends upon various soil parameters such as mineralogy, clay content, Atterberg's limits, dry density, moisture content, initial degree of saturation, etc. along with structural and environmental factors. It is very difficult to model and analyze swelling pressure effectively taking all the above aspects into consideration. Various statistical/empirical methods have been attempted to predict the swelling pressure based on index properties of soil. In this paper, the computational intelligence techniques artificial neural network and support vector machine have been used to develop models based on the set of available experimental results to predict swelling pressure from the inputs; natural moisture content, dry density, liquid limit, plasticity index, and clay fraction. The generalization of the model to new set of data other than the training set of data is discussed which is required for successful application of a model. A detailed study of the relative performance of the computational intelligence techniques has been carried out based on different statistical performance criteria.

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The swelling pressure of soil depends upon various soil parameters such as mineralogy, clay content, Atterberg's limits, dry density, moisture content, initial degree of saturation, etc. along with structural and environmental factors. It is very difficult to model and analyze swelling pressure effectively taking all the above aspects into consideration. Various statistical/empirical methods have been attempted to predict the swelling pressure based on index properties of soil. In this paper, the computational intelligence techniques artificial neural network and support vector machine have been used to develop models based on the set of available experimental results to predict swelling pressure from the inputs; natural moisture content, dry density, liquid limit, plasticity index, and clay fraction. The generalization of the model to new set of data other than the training set of data is discussed which is required for successful application of a model. A detailed study of the relative performance of the computational intelligence techniques has been carried out based on different statistical performance criteria.

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The hardening cubic spring oscillator is studied under narrow-band gaussian excitation. Equivalent linearization leads to multiple steady states. The realizability of the solution is discussed through stochastic stability analysis. Theoretical results are supported by numerical simulation.

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In this paper we introduce a nonlinear detector based on the phenomenon of suprathreshold stochastic resonance (SSR). We first present a model (an array of 1-bit quantizers) that demonstrates the SSR phenomenon. We then use this as a pre-processor to the conventional matched filter. We employ the Neyman-Pearson(NP) detection strategy and compare the performances of the matched filter, the SSR-based detector and the optimal detector. Although the proposed detector is non-optimal, for non-Gaussian noises with heavy tails (leptokurtic) it shows better performance than the matched filter. In situations where the noise is known to be leptokurtic without the availability of the exact knowledge of its distribution, the proposed detector turns out to be a better choice than the matched filter.