Tuberculosis in HIV-negative and HIV-infected patients in a low-incidence country: clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes.

BACKGROUND: In Switzerland and other developed countries, the number of tuberculosis (TB) cases has been decreasing for decades, but HIV-infected patients and migrants remain risk groups. The aim of this study was to compare characteristics of TB in HIV-negative and HIV-infected patients diagnosed in Switzerland, and between coinfected patients enrolled and not enrolled in the national Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS AND FINDINGS: All patients diagnosed with culture-confirmed TB in the SHCS and a random sample of culture-confirmed cases reported to the national TB registry 2000-2008 were included. Outcomes were assessed in HIV-infected patients and considered successful in case of cure or treatment completion. Ninety-three SHCS patients and 288 patients selected randomly from 4221 registered patients were analyzed. The registry sample included 10 (3.5%) coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS: the estimated number of HIV-infected patients not enrolled in the SHCS but reported to the registry 2000-2008 was 146 (95% CI 122-173). Coinfected patients were more likely to be from sub-Saharan Africa (51.5% versus 15.8%, P<0.0001) and to present disseminated disease (23.9% vs. 3.4%, P<0.0001) than HIV-negative patients. Coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS were asylum seekers or migrant workers, with lower CD4 cell counts at TB diagnosis (median CD4 count 79 cells/µL compared to 149 cells/µL among SHCS patients, P = 0.07). There were 6 patients (60.0%) with successful outcomes compared to 82 (88.2%) patients in the SHCS (P = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS: The clinical presentation of coinfected patients differed from HIV-negative TB patients. The number of HIV-infected patients diagnosed with TB outside the SHCS is similar to the number diagnosed within the cohort but outcomes are poorer in patients not followed up in the national cohort. Special efforts are required to address the needs of this vulnerable population.

Three-year-olds' attachment play narratives and their associations with internalizing problems

Representational strategies of emotion regulation during play are believed to protect children against behaviour problems. Yet, before the age of 4, it appears that children rely more on their attachment figure than on representational strategies to assuage distress. The study was aimed at testing whether 3-year-olds' narrative features during the Attachment Story Completion Task (ASCT) could predict concurrent internalizing problems assessed by the mothers' and fathers' ratings of the child, using the Child Behaviour Checklist Regression analyses including gender, IQ, socio-economic status and ASCT dimensions revealed that representations of supportive caregiving predicted mother-reported internalizing problems (negative association), whereas positive resolution and attachment strategies (security, deactivation, hyperactivation, disorganization) did not. Results were interpreted with reference to Bowlby's hypotheses regarding the aetiology of depression and anxiety disorders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved)

The Rio de Janeiro HIV Vaccine Site: I. Recruitment Strategies and Socio-demographic Data of a HIV Negative Homosexual and Bisexual Male Cohort in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The initial effort of the Brazilian Ministry of Health to be an active partner in the world effort in the preparation of future accurate human immune deficiency virus (HIV) efficacy trials was the establishment of a multi-centered cohort of homosexual and bisexual men. An open cohort was established to determine the HIV incidence and the socio-behavioral aspects involved in Rio de Janeiro. A total of 318 potential participants, originated from multiple sources (health units, public information, snowball recruitment), were screened and recruitment became effective through the direct involvement of target communities (with the support of Non Governmental Organizations) and the population. Among this group, seropositivity for sexually transmitted diseases was high with 23, 32 and 46% for HIV, syphilis and hepatitis B, respectively. The socio-demographic data from the first 200 participants of this HIV negative cohort suggests that the cohort volunteers are an appropriate sample of the general male population of the State of Rio de Janeiro

Frequency and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-infected persons: the Swiss HIV cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Access to antiretroviral therapy may have changed condom use behavior. In January 2008, recommendations on condom use for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons were published in Switzerland, which allowed for unprotected sex under well-defined circumstances ("Swiss statement"). We studied the frequency, changes over time, and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-positive persons. METHODS: Self-reported information on sexual preference, sexual partners, and condom use was collected at semi-annual visits in all participants of the prospective Swiss HIV Cohort Study from April 2007 through March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit using generalized estimating equations to investigate associations between characteristics of cohort participants and condom use. FINDINGS: A total of 7309 participants contributed to 21,978 visits. A total of 4291 persons (80%) reported sexual contacts with stable partners, 1646 (30%) with occasional partners, and 557 (10%) with stable and occasional partners. Of the study participants, 5838 (79.9%) of 7309 were receiving antiretroviral therapy, and of these, 4816 patients (82%) had a suppressed viral load. Condom use varied widely and differed by type of partner (visits with stable partners, 10,368 [80%] of 12,983; visits with occasional partners, 4300 [88%] of 4880) and by serostatus of stable partner (visits with HIV-negative partners, 7105 [89%] of 8174; visits with HIV-positive partners, 1453 [48%] of 2999). Participants were more likely to report unprotected sex with stable partners if they were receiving antiretroviral therapy, if HIV replication was suppressed, and after the publication of the "Swiss statement." Noninjection drug use and moderate or severe alcohol use were associated with unprotected sex. CONCLUSIONS: Antiretroviral treatment and plasma HIV RNA titers influence sexual behavior of HIV-positive persons. Noninjection illicit drug and alcohol use are important risk factors for unprotected sexual contacts.

Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

EGFR signalling as a negative regulator of Notch1 gene transcription and function in proliferating keratinocytes and cancer.

The Notch1 gene has an important role in mammalian cell-fate decision and tumorigenesis. Upstream control mechanisms for transcription of this gene are still poorly understood. In a chemical genetics screen for small molecule activators of Notch signalling, we identified epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) as a key negative regulator of Notch1 gene expression in primary human keratinocytes, intact epidermis and skin squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs). The underlying mechanism for negative control of the Notch1 gene in human cells, as well as in a mouse model of EGFR-dependent skin carcinogenesis, involves transcriptional suppression of p53 by the EGFR effector c-Jun. Suppression of Notch signalling in cancer cells counteracts the differentiation-inducing effects of EGFR inhibitors while, at the same time, synergizing with these compounds in induction of apoptosis. Thus, our data reveal a key role of EGFR signalling in the negative regulation of Notch1 gene transcription, of potential relevance for combinatory approaches for cancer therapy.

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Evaluation of Three Mycobacterium leprae Monoclonal Antibodies in Mucus and Lymph Samples from Ziehl-Neelsen Stain Negative Leprosy Patients and their Household Contacts in an Indian Community

Mucus and lymph smears collected from leprosy patients (9) and their household contacts (44) in the Caño Mochuelo Indian Reservation, Casanare, Colombia, were examined with monoclonal antibodies (MoAb) against Mycobacterium leprae. The individuals studied were: 5 borderline leprosy (BB) patients, 4 with a lepromatous leprosy (LL), all of whom were undergoing epidemiological surveillance after treatment and 44 household contacts: 21 of the LL and 23 contacts of the BB patients. The MoAb were reactive with the following M. leprae antigens: 65 kd heat shock protein, A6; soluble antigen G7 and complete antigen, E11. All the samples were tested with each of the MoAb using the avidin-biotin-peroxidase technique and 3,3 diaminobenzidine as chromogen. The patients and household contacts studied were all recorded as Ziehl-Neelsen stain negative. The MoAb which showed optimal reaction was G7, this MoAb permited good visualization of the bacilli. Five patients with BB diagnosis and one with LL were positive for G7; of the BB patients' household contacts, 9 were positive for G7; 7 of the LL patients' household contacts were positive for the same MoAb. MoAb G7 allowed the detection of bacillar Mycobacterium spp. compatible structures in both patients and household contacts. G7 permited the visualization of the complete bacillus and could be used for early diagnosis and follow-up of the disease in patients.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

The longitudinal association between social functioning and theory of mind in first episode psychosis

Introduction. There is some cross-sectional evidence that theory of mind ability is associated with social functioning in those with psychosis but the direction of this relationship is unknown. This study investigates the longitudinal association between both theory of mind and psychotic symptoms and social functioning outcome in first-episode psychosis. Methods. Fifty-four people with first-episode psychosis were followed up at 6 and 12 months. Random effects regression models were used to estimate the stability of theory of mind over time and the association between baseline theory of mind and psychotic symptoms and social functioning outcome. Results. Neither baseline theory of mind ability (regression coefficients: Hinting test 1.07 95% CI 0.74, 2.88; Visual Cartoon test 2.91 95% CI 7.32, 1.51) nor baseline symptoms (regression coefficients: positive symptoms 0.04 95% CI 1.24, 1.16; selected negative symptoms 0.15 95% CI 2.63, 2.32) were associated with social functioning outcome. There was evidence that theory of mind ability was stable over time, (regression coefficients: Hinting test 5.92 95% CI 6.66, 8.92; Visual Cartoon test score 0.13 95% CI 0.17, 0.44). Conclusions. Neither baseline theory of mind ability nor psychotic symptoms are associated with social functioning outcome. Further longitudinal work is needed to understand the origin of social functioning deficits in psychosis.

Does grade retention affect achievement? Some evidence from PISA

Grade retention practices are at the forefront of the educational debate. In this paper, we use PISA 2009 data for Spain to measure the effect of grade retention on students’ achievement. One important problem when analyzing this question is that school outcomes and the propensity to repeat a grade are likely to be determined simultaneously. We address this problem by estimating a Switching Regression Model. We …find that grade retention has a negative impact on educational outcomes, but we confi…rm the importance of endogenous selection, which makes observed differences between repeaters and non-repeaters appear 14.6% lower than they actually are. The effect on PISA scores of repeating is much smaller (-10% of non-repeaters’ average) than the counterfactual reduction that non-repeaters would suffer had they been retained as repeaters (-24% of their average). Furthermore, those who repeated a grade during primary education suffered more than those who repeated a grade of secondary school, although the effect of repeating at both times is, as expected, much larger.

Comparison between Human Immunodeficiency Virus Positive and Negative Patients with Tuberculosis in Southern Brazil

The objective of this study is to determine the different characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive and negative patients treated for tuberculosis (TBC) in a tertiary hospital in Southern Brazil. We conducted a retrospective cohort study over a 5-year period, from January 1992 through December 1996. We reviewed medical charts of patients from our institution who received TBC treatment. We reviewed 167 medical charts of patients with confirmed TBC. HIV positivity was detected in 74 patients. There were statistically significant difference between HIV positive and negative patients in sex and age. HIV-infected patients showed significantly more signs of bacteremia than HIV-negative patients. Extra-pulmonary TBC was present respectively in 13 (17.6%) and 21 (22.6%) HIV positive and negative patients. There was a significant difference between chest radiograph presentation in HIV positive and negative patients. There were significantly lower hematocrit, hemoglobin, leukocyte and lymphocyte levels in HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative patients. Outcome was significantly different in the two groups with a death rate of 36.5% and 10.8% in HIV-positive and in HIV-negative patients. The difference between HIV positive and negative patients may have importance in the diagnosis, management and prognosis of patients with TBC.

Concurrent and simultaneous polydrug use among young Swiss males: use patterns and associations of number of substances used with health issues.

Background: Simultaneous polydrug use (SPU) may represent a greater incremental risk factor for human health than concurrent polydrug use (CPU). However, few studies have examined these patterns of use in relation to health issues, particularly with regard to the number of drugs used. Methods: In the present study, we have analyzed data from a representative sample of 5734 young Swiss males from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors. Exposure to drugs (i.e., alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, and 15 other illicit drugs), as well as mental, social and physical factors, were studied through regression analysis. Results: We found that individuals engaging in CPU and SPU followed the known stages of drug use, involving initial experiences with licit drugs (e.g., alcohol and tobacco), followed by use of cannabis and then other illicit drugs. In this regard, two classes of illicit drugs were identified, including first uppers, hallucinogens and sniffed drugs; and then "harder" drugs (ketamine, heroin, and crystal meth), which were only consumed by polydrug users who were already taking numerous drugs. Moreover, we observed an association between the number of drugs used simultaneously and social issues (i.e., social consequences and aggressiveness). In fact, the more often the participants simultaneously used substances, the more likely they were to experience social problems. In contrast, we did not find any relationship between SPU and depression, anxiety, health consequences, or health. Conclusions: We identified some associations with SPU that were independent of CPU. Moreover, we found that the number of concurrently used drugs can be a strong factor associated with mental and physical health, although their simultaneous use may not significantly contribute to this association. Finally, the negative effects related to the use of one substance might be counteracted by the use of an additional substance.

Sexually transmitted diseases in homosexual and bisexual males from a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus negative volunteers (Project Horizonte), Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Sexually transmitted diseases (STD) are very frequent in the whole world. Males who do not use a condom during their sexual relations are at great risk. We report cases of STD during six months of observation, among homosexual/bisexual males who participate in the Project Horizonte. There were 16 cases of genital warts, 6 cases of human immunodeficiency virus infection, 24 cases of unspecific urethritis, 28 cases of herpes simplex virus infection, 30 cases of syphilis, 58 cases of gonorrhea and 84 cases of pediculosis. We concluded that a condom must be used in all sexual relations and new counseling techniques are needed, to avoid this situation.