Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Immune responses to JC virus in patients with multiple sclerosis treated with natalizumab: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab is used to prevent relapses and progression of disability in patients with multiple sclerosis but has been associated with progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). We aimed to better understand the associations between JC virus, which causes PML, and natalizumab treatment. METHODS: We prospectively assessed patients with multiple sclerosis who started treatment with natalizumab. Blood and urine samples were tested for the presence of JC virus DNA with quantitative real-time PCR before treatment and at regular intervals after treatment onset for up to 18 months. At the same timepoints, by use of proliferation and enzyme-linked immunospot assays, the cellular immune responses against JC virus, Epstein-Barr virus, cytomegalovirus, myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein, and myelin oligodendrocyte basic protein (MOBP) were assessed. Humoral immune response specific to JC virus was assessed with an enzyme immunoassay. The same experiments were done on blood samples from patients with multiple sclerosis before and 10 months after the start of interferon beta treatment. FINDINGS: We assessed 24 patients with multiple sclerosis who received natalizumab and 16 who received interferon beta. In patients treated with natalizumab, JC virus DNA was not detected in the blood at any timepoint. However, JC virus DNA was present in the urine of six patients and in most of these patients the concentrations of JC virus DNA were stable over time. Compared with pretreatment values, the cellular immune response was increased to cytomegalovirus at 6 months, to JC virus at 1, 9, and 12 months, and to Epstein-Barr virus and MOBP at 12 months. Humoral responses remained stable. There were no increases in cellular immune responses specific to the viruses or myelin proteins in the 16 patients treated with interferon beta. INTERPRETATION: Natalizumab increases cellular immune responses specific to viruses and myelin proteins in the peripheral blood after 1 year, without evidence of viral reactivation. FUNDING: Swiss National Foundation, Swiss Society for Multiple Sclerosis, and Biogen Dompé.

Networks in Argentine agriculture: a multiple-case study approach

Argentina is among the four largest producers of soybeans, sunflower, corn, and wheat, among other agricultural products. Institutional and policy changes during the 1990s fostered the development of Argentine agriculture and the introduction of innovative process and product technologies (no-till, agrochemicals, GMO, GPS) and new investments in modern, large-scale sunflower and soybean processing plants. In addition to technological changes, a "quiet revolution" occurred in the way agricultural production was carried out and organized: from self-production or ownership agriculture to a contract-based agriculture. The objective of this paper is to explore and describe the emergence of networks in the Argentine crop production sector. The paper presents and describes four cases that currently represent about 50% of total grain and oilseed production in Argentina: "informal hybrid form", "agricultural trust fund", "investor-oriented corporate structure", and "network of networks". In all cases, hybrid forms involve a group of actors linked by common objectives, mainly to gain scale, share resources, and improve the profitability of the business. Informal contracts seem to be the most common way of organizing the agriculture process, but using short-term contracts and sequential interfirm collaboration. Networks of networks involve long-term relationships and social development, and reciprocal interfirm collaboration. Agricultural trust fund and investor-oriented corporate structures have combined interfirm collaboration and medium-term relationships. These organizational forms are highly flexible and show a great capacity to adapt to challenges; they are competitive because they enjoy aligned incentives, flexibility, and adaptability.

Effectiveness of glatiramer acetate compared to other multiple sclerosis therapies.

OBJECTIVE To assess the effectiveness of glatiramer acetate (GA) compared to other multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies in routine clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS Observational cohort study carried out in MS patients treated with GA (GA cohort) or other MS therapies -switched from GA- (non-GA cohort). Study data were obtained through review of our MS patient database. The primary endpoint was the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores reached at the end of treatment/last check-up. RESULTS A total of 180 patients were included: GA cohort n = 120, non-GA cohort n = 60. Patients in the GA cohort showed better EDSS scores at the end of treatment/last check-up (mean ± SD, 2.8 ± 1.8 vs. 3.9 ± 2.2; P = 0.001) and were 1.65 times more likely to show better EDSS scores compared to the non-GA cohort (odds ratio, 0.606; 95%CI, 0.436-0.843; P = 0.003). Patients in the GA cohort showed longer mean time to reach EDSS scores of 6 (209.1 [95%CI, 187.6-230.6] vs. 164.3 [95% CI, 137.0-191.6] months; P = 0.004) and slower disability progression (hazard ratio, 0.415 [95%CI, 0.286-0.603]; P < 0.001). The annualized relapse rate was lower in the GA cohort (mean ± SD, 0.5 ± 0.5 vs. 0.8 ± 0.5; P = 0.001) and patients' quality of life was improved in this study cohort compared to the non-GA cohort (mean ± SD, 0.7 ± 0.1 vs. 0.6 ± 0.2; P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS GA may slow down the progression of EDSS scores to a greater extent than other MS therapies, as well as achieving a greater reduction in relapses and a greater improvement in patients' quality of life. Switching from GA to other MS therapies has not proved to entail a better response to treatment.

Concentrations of the enantiomers of fluoxetine and norfluoxetine after multiple doses of fluoxetine in cytochrome P4502D6 poor and extensive metabolizers.

Plasma concentrations of the enantiomers of fluoxetine (FLX) and norfluoxetine (NFLX) were measured at days 7, 14, and 23 of oral administration of 20 mg of racemic fluoxetine in 11 patients who were comedicated with risperidone. Eight patients were genotyped as being cytochrome P4502D6 extensive metabolizers (EMs) and three as cytochrome P4502D6 poor metabolizers (PMs). No statistically significant differences were calculated between EMs and PMs in the concentrations of (R)-FLX and (R)-NFLX for all days examined (day 23, mean +/- SD for (R)-FLX and (R)-NFLX in EMs, 16 +/- 5 and 29 +/- 20 ng/mL, respectively; in PMs, 16 +/- 1 and 20 +/- 2 ng/mL, respectively). However, concentrations of (S)-FLX and (S)-NFLX were higher and lower, respectively, in PMs as compared with EMs (day 7, p = 0.037 and p = 0.036; day 14, p = 0.014 and p = 0.014; day 23, p = 0.068 and p = 0.038). On day 23, mean (S)-FLX and (S)-NFLX in EMs were (mean +/- SD) 39 +/- 26 and 63 +/- 26 ng/mL, and in PMs they were 88 +/- 7 and 19 +/- 2 ng/mL. This study confirms the results of the single-dose studies showing that CYP2D6 is involved in the demethylation of FLX to NFLX, with a stereoselectivity toward the (S)-enantiomer. The data also clearly show that the CYP2D6 genotype has an important influence on the concentrations of the (S)- but not of the (R)-enantiomer of FLX and NFLX after multiple doses.

Health-related quality of life assessment in people with multiple sclerosis and their family caregivers. A multicenter study in Catalonia (Southern Europe)

Objectives: To measure the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and their caregivers, and to assess which factors can best describe HRQoL. Methods: A cross-sectional multicenter study of nine hospitals enrolled MS patients and their caregivers who attended outpatient clinics consecutively. The instruments used were the SF-36 for patients and the SF-12 and GHQ-12 for caregivers. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to analyze the explanatory factors of HRQoL. Results: A total of 705 patients (mean age 40.4 years, median Expanded Disability Status Scale 2.5, 77.8% with relapsing-remitting MS) and 551 caregivers (mean age 45.4 years) participated in the study. MS patients had significantly lower HRQoL than in the general population (physical SF-36: 39.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 39.1–40.6; mental SF-36: 44.4; 95% CI: 43.5–45.3). Caregivers also presented lower HRQoL than general population, especially in its mental domain (mental SF-12: 46.4; 95% CI: 45.5–47.3). Moreover, according to GHQ-12, 27% of caregivers presented probable psychological distress. Disability and co-morbidity in patients, and co-morbidity and employment status in caregivers, were the most important explanatory factors of their HRQoL. Conclusions: Not only the HRQoL of patients with MS, but also that of their caregivers, is indeed notably affected. Caregivers’ HRQoL is close to population of chronic illness even that the patients sample has a mild clinical severity and that caregiving role is a usual task in the study context

Metacognitive training for adolescents with psychosis: A multiple case study

Cognitive biases may be one of the explaining factor underlying psychotic symptoms like delusions and hallucinations. Metacognitive training (MCT) was demonstrated, in adults with schizophrenia, to reduce these cognitive biases. However, to the best of our knowledge, there has been no research on adolescents with psychosis. The current study aimed at assessing the feasibility, treatment adherence and its benefi cial effects on psychotic symptoms, depression, social functioning and self-esteem of a MCT. Participants were fi ve psychotic adolescents with psychosis, aged 16-18, who attended the Day Care Unit for Adolescents (DCUA). The MCT, delivered in group, corresponds to 2x8 modules, lasting between 45 and 60 minutes once a week. To measure MCT's effi ciency, the Positive And Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS), the Health of Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescent (HoNOSCA), the depression scale of Calgary and the self-esteem scale of Rosenberg have been used. The results of the 5 patients indicate that MCT is feasible and the treatment adherence is moderate. The schedule of the MCT needs to be adapted to the availability of the participants. At a descriptive level, the MCT allows to reduce psychotic and depressive symptoms (PANSS & Calgary) as well as to improve the social functioning (SOFAS & HoNOSCA) and self-esteem (Rosenberg). To sum up, MCT seem to be an interesting alternative and/or a good additional treatment to reduce cognitive bias, psychotic symptoms as well as improving social functioning

NLRP3 inflammasome activation: The convergence of multiple signalling pathways on ROS production?

The NLR family, pyrin domain-containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome is a multiprotein complex that activates caspase 1, leading to the processing and secretion of the pro-inflammatory cytokines interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta) and IL-18. The NLRP3 inflammasome is activated by a wide range of danger signals that derive not only from microorganisms but also from metabolic dysregulation. It is unclear how these highly varied stress signals can be detected by a single inflammasome. In this Opinion article, we review the different signalling pathways that have been proposed to engage the NLRP3 inflammasome and suggest a model in which one of the crucial elements for NLRP3 activation is the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS).

Fracture imaging within a granitic rock aquifer using multiple-offset single-hole and cross-hole GPR reflection data

The sparsely spaced highly permeable fractures of the granitic rock aquifer at Stang-er-Brune (Brittany, France) form a well-connected fracture network of high permeability but unknown geometry. Previous work based on optical and acoustic logging together with single-hole and cross-hole flowmeter data acquired in 3 neighbouring boreholes (70-100 m deep) has identified the most important permeable fractures crossing the boreholes and their hydraulic connections. To constrain possible flow paths by estimating the geometries of known and previously unknown fractures, we have acquired, processed and interpreted multifold, single- and cross-hole GPR data using 100 and 250 MHz antennas. The GPR data processing scheme consisting of timezero corrections, scaling, bandpass filtering and F-X deconvolution, eigenvector filtering, muting, pre-stack Kirchhoff depth migration and stacking was used to differentiate fluid-filled fracture reflections from source generated noise. The final stacked and pre-stack depth-migrated GPR sections provide high-resolution images of individual fractures (dipping 30-90°) in the surroundings (2-20 m for the 100 MHz antennas; 2-12 m for the 250 MHz antennas) of each borehole in a 2D plane projection that are of superior quality to those obtained from single-offset sections. Most fractures previously identified from hydraulic testing can be correlated to reflections in the single-hole data. Several previously unknown major near vertical fractures have also been identified away from the boreholes.

Weighted Shape-based Averaging with Neighborhood Prior Model for Multiple Atlas Fusion-based Medical Image Segmentation

In medical imaging, merging automated segmentations obtained from multiple atlases has become a standard practice for improving the accuracy. In this letter, we propose two new fusion methods: "Global Weighted Shape-Based Averaging" (GWSBA) and "Local Weighted Shape-Based Averaging" (LWSBA). These methods extend the well known Shape-Based Averaging (SBA) by additionally incorporating the similarity information between the reference (i.e., atlas) images and the target image to be segmented. We also propose a new spatially-varying similarity-weighted neighborhood prior model, and an edge-preserving smoothness term that can be used with many of the existing fusion methods. We first present our new Markov Random Field (MRF) based fusion framework that models the above mentioned information. The proposed methods are evaluated in the context of segmentation of lymph nodes in the head and neck 3D CT images, and they resulted in more accurate segmentations compared to the existing SBA.