Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

Avian diversification patterns across the K-Pg boundary: Influence of calibrations, datasets, and model misspecification

Birds represent the most diverse extant tetrapod clade, with ca. 10,000 extant species, and the timing of the crown avian radiation remains hotly debated. The fossil record supports a primarily Cenozoic radiation of crown birds, whereas molecular divergence dating analyses generally imply that this radiation was well underway during the Cretaceous. Furthermore, substantial differences have been noted between published divergence estimates. These have been variously attributed to clock model, calibration regime, and gene type. One underappreciated phenomenon is that disparity between fossil ages and molecular dates tends to be proportionally greater for shallower nodes in the avian Tree of Life. Here, we explore potential drivers of disparity in avian divergence dates through a set of analyses applying various calibration strategies and coding methods to a mitochondrial genome dataset and an 18-gene nuclear dataset, both sampled across 72 taxa. Our analyses support the occurrence of two deep divergences (i.e., the Palaeognathae/Neognathae split and the Galloanserae/Neoaves split) well within the Cretaceous, followed by a rapid radiation of Neoaves near the K-Pg boundary. However, 95% highest posterior density intervals for most basal divergences in Neoaves cross the boundary, and we emphasize that, barring unreasonably strict prior distributions, distinguishing between a rapid Early Paleocene radiation and a Late Cretaceous radiation may be beyond the resolving power of currently favored divergence dating methods. In contrast to recent observations for placental mammals, constraining all divergences within Neoaves to occur in the Cenozoic does not result in unreasonably high inferred substitution rates. Comparisons of nuclear DNA (nDNA) versus mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) datasets and NT- versus RY-coded mitochondrial data reveal patterns of disparity that are consistent with substitution model misspecifications that result in tree compression/tree extension artifacts, which may explain some discordance between previous divergence estimates based on different sequence types. Comparisons of fully calibrated and nominally calibrated trees support a correlation between body mass and apparent dating error. Overall, our results are consistent with (but do not require) a Paleogene radiation for most major clades of crown birds.

A genetic algorithm with characteristic amplification through multiple geographically isolated populations and varied fitness landscapes

This paper proposes a new approach, wherein multiple populations are evolved on different landscapes. The problem statement is broken down, to describe discrete characteristics. Each landscape, described by its fitness landscape is used to optimize or amplify a certain characteristic or set of characteristics. Individuals from each of these populations are kept geographically isolated from each other Each population is evolved individually. After a predetermined number of evolutions, the system of populations is analysed against a normalized fitness function. Depending on this score and a predefined merging scheme, the populations are merged, one at a time, while continuing evolution. Merging continues until only one final population remains. This population is then evolved, following which the resulting population will contain the optimal solution. The final resulting population will contain individuals which have been optimized against all characteristics as desired by the problem statement. Each individual population is optimized for a local maxima. Thus when populations are merged, the effect is to produce a new population which is closer to the global maxima.

A genetic algorithm with characteristic amplification through multiple geographically isolated populations and varied fitness landscapes

This paper proposes a new approach, wherein multiple populations are evolved on different landscapes. The problem statement is broken down, to describe discrete characteristics. Each landscape, described by its fitness landscape is used to optimize or amplify a certain characteristic or set of characteristics. Individuals from each of these populations are kept geographically isolated from each other Each population is evolved individually. After a predetermined number of evolutions, the system of populations is analysed against a normalized fitness function. Depending on this score and a predefined merging scheme, the populations are merged, one at a time, while continuing evolution. Merging continues until only one final population remains. This population is then evolved, following which the resulting population will contain the optimal solution. The final resulting population will contain individuals which have been optimized against all characteristics as desired by the problem statement. Each individual population is optimized for a local maxima. Thus when populations are merged, the effect is to produce a new population which is closer to the global maxima.

Existence of multiple positive solutions for N-laplacian in a bounded domain in R-N

Let Ohm be a bounded domain in IRN, N greater than or equal to 2, lambda > 0, q is an element of (0, N - 1) and alpha is an element of (1, N/N-1 In this article we show the existence of at least two positive solutions for the following quasilinear elliptic problem with an exponential type nonlinearity:

Simulation of wavelength/time multiple-pulses-per-row fiber-optic CDMA network

Passive wavelength/time fiber-optic code division multiple access (WIT FO-CDMA) network is a viable option for highspeed access networks. Constructions of 2-D codes, suitable for incoherent WIT FO-CDMA, have been proposed to reduce the time spread of the 1-D sequences. The 2-D constructions can be broadly classified as 1) hybrid codes and 2) matrix codes. In our earlier work [141, we had proposed a new family of wavelength/time multiple-pulses-per-row (W/T MPR) matrix codes which have good cardinality, spectral efficiency and at the same time have the lowest off-peak autocorrelation and cross-correlation values equal to unity. In this paper we propose an architecture for a WIT MPR FO-CDAM network designed using the presently available devices and technology. A complete FO-CDMA network of ten users is simulated, for various number of simultaneous users and shown that 0 --> 1 errors can occur only when the number of interfering users is at least equal to the threshold value.

Stereochemical Analysis of Higher α,α-Dialkylglycine Containing Peptides. Characterization of Local Helical Conformations at Dipropylglycine Residues and Observation of a Novel Hydrated Multiple β-Turn Structure in Crystals of a Glycine Rich Peptide

The peptide Boc-Gly-Dpg-Gly-Gly-Dpg-Gly-NHMe (1) has been synthesized to examine the conformational preferences of Dpg residues in the context of a poor helix promoting sequence. Single crystals of 1 were obtained in the space group P21/c with a = 13.716(2) Å, b = 12.960(2) Å, c = 22.266(4) Å, and β = 98.05(1)°; R = 6.3% for 3660 data with |Fo| > 4σ. The molecular conformation in crystals revealed that the Gly(1)-Dpg(2) segment adopts φ, ψ values distorted from those expected for an ideal type II‘ β-turn (φGly(1) = +72.0°, ψGly(1) = −166.0°; φDpg(2) = −54.0°, ψDpg(2) = −46.0°) with an inserted water molecule between Boc-CO and Gly(3)NH. The Gly(3)-Gly(4) segment adopts φ, ψ values which lie broadly in the right handed helical region (φGly(3) = −78.0°, ψGly(3) = −9.0°; φGly(4) = −80.0°, ψGly(4) = −18.0°). There is a chiral reversal at Dpg(5) which takes up φ, ψ values in the left handed helical region. The Dpg(5)-Gly(6) segment closely resembles an ideal type I‘ β-turn (φDpg(5) = +56.0°, ψDpg(5) = +32.0°; φGly(6) = +85.0°, ψGly(6) = −3.0°). Molecules of both chiral senses are found in the centrosymmetric crystal. The C-terminus forms a hydrated Schellman motif, with water insertion into the potential 6 → 1 hydrogen bond between Gly(1)CO and Gly(6)NH. NMR studies in CDCl3 suggest substantial retention of the multiple turn conformation observed in crystals. In solution the observed NOEs support local helical conformation at the two Dpg residues.

Multiple conformational states in crystals and in solution in alpha gamma hybrid peptides. Fragility of the C-12 helix in short sequences

The conformational properties of foldamers generated from alpha gamma hybrid peptide sequences have been probed in the model sequence Boc-Aib-Gpn-Aib-Gpn-NHMe. The choice of alpha-aminoisobutyryl (Aib) and gabapentin (Gpn) residues greatly restricts sterically accessible coil formational space. This model sequence was anticipated to be a short segment of the alpha gamma C-12 helix, stabilized by three successive 4 -> 1 hydrogen bonds, corresponding to a backbone-expanded analogue of the alpha polypeptide 3(10)-helix. Unexpectedly, three distinct crystalline polymorphs were characterized in the solid state by X-ray diffraction. In one form, two successive C-12 hydrogen bonds were obtained at the N-terminus, while a novel C-17 hydrogen-bonded gamma alpha gamma turn was observed at the C-terminus. In the other two polymorphs, isolated C-9 and C-7 hydrogen-bonded turns were observed at Gpn (2) and Gpn (4). Isolated C-12 and C-9 turns were also crystallographically established in the peptides Boc-Aib-Gpn-Aib-OMe and Boc-Gpn-Aib-NHMe, respectively. Selective line broadening of NH resonances and the observation of medium range NH(i)<-> NH(i+2) NOEs established the presence of conformational heterogeneity for the tetrapeptide in CDCl3 solution. The NMR results are consistent with the limited population of the continuous C-12 helix conformation. Lengthening of the (alpha gamma)(n) sequences in the nonapeptides Boc-Aib-Gpn-Aib-Gpn-Aib-Gpn-Aib-Gpn-Xxx (Xxx = Aib, Leu) resulted in the observation of all of the sequential NOEs characteristic of an alpha gamma C-12 helix. These results establish that conformational fragility is manifested in short hybrid alpha gamma sequences despite the choice of conformationally constrained residues, while stable helices are formed on chain extension.

Detection of multiple source locations using a glowworm metaphor with applications to collective robotics

This paper presents a glowworm swarm based algorithm that finds solutions to optimization of multiple optima continuous functions. The algorithm is a variant of a well known ant-colony optimization (ACO) technique, but with several significant modifications. Similar to how each moving region in the ACO technique is associated with a pheromone value, the agents in our algorithm carry a luminescence quantity along with them. Agents are thought of as glowworms that emit a light whose intensity is proportional to the associated luminescence and have a circular sensor range. The glowworms depend on a local-decision domain to compute their movements. Simulations demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed glowworm based algorithm in capturing multiple optima of a multimodal function. The above optimization scenario solves problems where a collection of autonomous robots is used to form a mobile sensor network. In particular, we address the problem of detecting multiple sources of a general nutrient profile that is distributed spatially on a two dimensional workspace using multiple robots.

Analysis of multiple crystal forms of Bacillus subtilis BacB suggests a role for a metal ion as a nucleant for crystallization

Bacillus subtilis BacB is an oxidase that is involved in the production of the antibiotic bacilysin. This protein contains two double-stranded beta-helix (cupin) domains fused in a compact arrangement. BacB crystallizes in three crystal forms under similar crystallization conditions. An interesting observation was that a slight perturbation of the crystallization droplet resulted in the nucleation of a different crystal form. An X-ray absorption scan of BacB suggested the presence of cobalt and iron in the crystal. Here, a comparative analysis of the different crystal forms of BacB is presented in an effort to identify the basis for the different lattices. It is noted that metal ions mediating interactions across the asymmetric unit dominate the different packing arrangements. Furthermore, a normalized B-factor analysis of all the crystal structures suggests that the solvent-exposed metal ions decrease the flexibility of a loop segment, perhaps influencing the choice of crystal form. The residues coordinating the surface metal ion are similar in the triclinic and monoclinic crystal forms. The coordinating ligands for the corresponding metal ion in the tetragonal crystal form are different, leading to a tighter packing arrangement. Although BacB is a monomer in solution, a dimer of BacB serves as a template on which higher order symmetrical arrangements are formed. The different crystal forms of BacB thus provide experimental evidence for metal-ion-mediated lattice formation and crystal packing.

Essays on Market Microstructure: Price Discovery and Informed Trading

Market microstructure is “the study of the trading mechanisms used for financial securities” (Hasbrouck (2007)). It seeks to understand the sources of value and reasons for trade, in a setting with different types of traders, and different private and public information sets. The actual mechanisms of trade are a continually changing object of study. These include continuous markets, auctions, limit order books, dealer markets, or combinations of these operating as a hybrid market. Microstructure also has to allow for the possibility of multiple prices. At any given time an investor may be faced with a multitude of different prices, depending on whether he or she is buying or selling, the quantity he or she wishes to trade, and the required speed for the trade. The price may also depend on the relationship that the trader has with potential counterparties. In this research, I touch upon all of the above issues. I do this by studying three specific areas, all of which have both practical and policy implications. First, I study the role of information in trading and pricing securities in markets with a heterogeneous population of traders, some of whom are informed and some not, and who trade for different private or public reasons. Second, I study the price discovery of stocks in a setting where they are simultaneously traded in more than one market. Third, I make a contribution to the ongoing discussion about market design, i.e. the question of which trading systems and ways of organizing trading are most efficient. A common characteristic throughout my thesis is the use of high frequency datasets, i.e. tick data. These datasets include all trades and quotes in a given security, rather than just the daily closing prices, as in traditional asset pricing literature. This thesis consists of four separate essays. In the first essay I study price discovery for European companies cross-listed in the United States. I also study explanatory variables for differences in price discovery. In my second essay I contribute to earlier research on two issues of broad interest in market microstructure: market transparency and informed trading. I examine the effects of a change to an anonymous market at the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange. I broaden my focus slightly in the third essay, to include releases of macroeconomic data in the United States. I analyze the effect of these releases on European cross-listed stocks. The fourth and last essay examines the uses of standard methodologies of price discovery analysis in a novel way. Specifically, I study price discovery within one market, between local and foreign traders.

Multiple Perspectives on Networks: Conceptual Development, Application and Integration in an Entrepreneurial Context

Multiple Perspectives on Networks: Conceptual Development, Application and Integration in an Entrepreneurial Context. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance cross-fertilization between three different approaches to network research. The business network approach may contribute in terms of how relationships are created, developed and how tie content changes within ties, not only between them. The social network approach adds to the discussion by offering concepts of structural change on a network level. The network approach in entrepreneurship contributes by emphasizing network content, governance and structure as a way of understanding and capturing networks. This is discussed in the conceptual articles, Articles 2 and 3. The ultimate purpose of this thesis is to develop a theoretical and empirical understanding of network development processes. This is fulfilled by presenting a theoretical framework, which offers multiple views on process as a developmental outcome. The framework implies that change ought to be captured both within and among relationships over time in the firm as well as in the network. Consequently, changes in structure and interaction taking place simultaneously need to be included when doing research on network development. The connection between micro and macro levels is also stressed. Therefore, the entrepreneur or firm level needs to be implemented together with the network level. The surrounding environment impacts firm and network development and vice versa and hence needs to be integrated. Further, it is necessary to view network development not only as a way forward but to include both progression and regression as inevitable parts of the process. Finally, both stability and change should be taken into account as part of network development. Empirical results in Article 1 show support for a positive impact of networks on SME internationalization. Article 4 compares networks of novice, serial and portfolio entrepreneurs but the empirical results show little support for differences in the networks by type of entrepreneur. The results demonstrate that network interaction and structure is not directly impacted by type of entrepreneur involved. It indicates instead that network structure and interaction is more impacted by the development phase of the firm. This in turn is in line with the theoretical implications, stating that the development of the network and the firm impacts each other, as they co-evolve.

Wavelength/Time Multiple-Pulses-per-Row codes: Construction and verification

Two dimensional Optical Orthogonal Codes (OOCs) named Wavelength/Time Multiple-Pulses-per-Row (W/T MPR) codes suitable for use in incoherent fiber-optic code division multiple access (FO-CDMA) networks are reported in [6]. In this paper, we report the construction of W/T MPR codes, using Greedy Algorithm (GA), with distinct 1-D OOCs [1] as the row vectors. We present the W/T MPR codes obtained using the GA. Further, we verify the correlation properties of the generated W/T MPR codes using Matlab.