Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Desenvolvimento de um serviço local de Saúde Mental em Famalicão

RESUMO: O desenvolvimento de serviços locais adequados deve ser baseado numa avaliação sistemática das necessidades e resultados obtidos nos cuidados a uma população de indivíduos identificados como apresentando uma doença mental na área de referenciação do serviço. Neste sentido foram utilizados os seguintes métodos: dados epidemiológicos acerca das necessidades locais e taxas de utilização de serviços a nível nacional e local, este último com base no case-register. Os diagnósticos de maior prevalência em ambulatório são as perturbações de humor e as perturbações neuróticas de stress ou somatoformes, com uma preponderância de doenças mentais comuns (depressão e ansiedade) em serviços de psiquiatria. Constatam-se baixas taxas de abandono da consulta (12%). A idade, a doença e a escolaridade estão correlacionados com o risco de drop-out, mas utilizada a regressão logística, a idade e a escolaridade perdem o seu significado estatístico. Encontram-se taxas reduzidas de drop-out dos indivíduos com psicose ou perturbações bipolares, em virtude da intervenção activa da equipa. Os custos de transporte, a distância ao local de consulta e o tempo de espera para a primeira consulta são barreiras no acesso aos cuidados a nível local. Os cuidadores não se sentem apoiados pela rede de suporte social e queixam-se sobretudo da acessibilidade, mas exibem elevadas taxas de satisfação com os serviços prestados. Decidiu-se apostar numa organização do serviço baseada na comunidade, com intervenções baseadas na evidência, dando prioridade ao doente mental grave e à qualidade dos cuidados.----------- ABSTRACT: The development of appropriate local services should be based on a systematic assessment of the needs and outcomes of the population of individuals identified as mentally ill within the service’s catchment area. A number of methods may be used as proxies in assessing local needs for services, such as service utilization rates found nationally and locally, by case-register. The most prevalent diagnoses in ambulatory care are mood disorders and neurotic, stress and somatoform disorders, with a majority of common mental disorders (depression and anxiety) in psychiatric services. Low dropout rates (12%) are found in ambulatory care. Age, disease and education are correlated with the risk of drop-out, but after using logistic regression, age and education lose their statistical significance. Low drop-out rates are found in individuals with psychosis or bipolar disorders, because the active intervention from the team. The costs of transportation, distance and the waiting time for the first consultation are barriers in access of care locally. Carers do not feel supported by the network of social support and complain primarily of accessibility, but exhibit high levels of satisfaction with the services provided. It was decided to invest in a service organization based in the community with evidence-based interventions, giving priority to severe mental illness and quality of care.

Can red cell distribution width be used as a marker of Crohn's disease activity?

Introduction: Recently, it has been suggested an association between red cell distribution width (RDW) and Crohn’s disease activity index (CDAI), but its use is not yet performed in daily clinical practice. Objectives: To determine whether RDW can be used as a marker of Crohn’s disease (CD) activity. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study including patients with CD, observed consecutively in an outpatient setting between January 1st and September 30th 2013. Blood cell indices, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and C-reactive protein were measured. CD activity was determined by CDAI (active disease if CDAI ≥ 150). Associations were analyzed using logistic regression (SPSS version 20). Results: 119 patients (56% female) were included in the study with a mean age of 47 years (SD 15.2). Twenty patients (17%) had active disease. The median RDW was 14.0 (13---15). There was an association between RDW and disease activity (p = 0.044). After adjustment for age and gender, this association remained consistent (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.03---1.39, p = 0.016). It was also found that the association between RDW and disease activity was independent of hemoglobin and ESR (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08---1.72, p = 0.01) and of biologic therapy (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03---1.37, p = 0.017). A RDW cutoff of 16% had a specificity and negative predictive value for CDAI ≥ 150 of 88% and 86%, respectively. Conclusion: In this study, RDW proved to be an independent and relatively specific marker of CD activity. These results may contribute to the implementation of this simple parameter, in clinical practice, aiming to help therapeutic decisions.

PREVALENCE OF INTESTINAL PARASITES AMONG FOOD HANDLERS IN WESTERN IRAN

Parasitic infection is one of the problems that affect human health, especially in developing countries. In this study, all of the fast food shops, restaurants, and roast meat outlets of Khorramabad (Western Iran) and all the staff employed by them, some 210 people, were selected through a census and their stools were examined for the presence of parasites. The parasitological tests of direct wet-mount, Lugol's iodine staining, formaldehyde-ether sedimentation and Trichrome staining techniques were performed on the samples. The data was analyzed with a chi-square test and logistic regression was selected as the analytical model. The results showed 19 (9%) stool specimens were positive for different intestinal parasites. These intestinal parasites included Giardia lamblia2.9%, Entamoeba coli 4.3%, Blastocystis sp. 1.4%, and Hymenolepis nana 0.5%. There was a significant difference between the presence of a valid health card, awareness of transmission of intestinal parasites, participation in training courses in environmental health with intestinal parasites (p < 0.05). No statistically significant difference was found between the rate of literacy and gender among patients infected with intestinal parasites (p > 0.05). To control parasitic infection in food handlers, several strategies are recommended such as stool examinations every three months, public education, application of health regulations, controlling the validity of health cards and training on parasitic infection transmission. In this regard, the findings of the present study can be used as a basis to develop preventive programs targeting food handlers because the spread of disease via them is a common problem worldwide.

ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SMOKING, CRACK COCAINE ABUSE AND THE DISCONTINUATION OF COMBINATION ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY IN RECIFE, PERNAMBUCO, BRAZIL

Despite the effectiveness of combination antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), nonadherence to medication has become a major threat to its effectiveness. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of self-reported irregular use of antiretroviral therapy and the factors associated with such an irregularity in PLWHA. A cross-sectional study of PLWHA who attended two referral centers in the city of Recife, in Northeastern Brazil, between June 2007 and October 2009 was carried out. The study analyzed socioeconomic factors, social service support and personal habits associated with nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy, adjusted by multivariable logistic regression analysis. The prevalence of PLWHA who reported irregular use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) was 25.7%. In the final multivariate model, the irregular use of cART was associated with the following variables: being aged less than 40 years (OR = 1.66, 95%-CI: 1.29-2.13), current smokers (OR = 1.76, 95%-CI: 1.31-2.37) or former smokers (OR = 1.43, 95%-CI: 1.05-1.95), and crack cocaine users (OR = 2.79, 95%-CI: 1.24-6.32). Special measures should be directed towards each of the following groups: individuals aged less than 40 years, smokers, former smokers and crack cocaine users. Measures for giving up smoking and crack cocaine should be incorporated into HIV-control programs in order to promote greater adherence to antiretroviral drugs and thus improve the quality of life and prolong life expectancy.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Karanganyar regency - Indonesia - Comparison of knowledge-based and Data-driven Models

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

INCIDENCE OF DIARRHEA BY Clostridium difficile IN HEMATOLOGIC PATIENTS AND HEMATOPOIETIC STEM CELL TRANSPLANTATION PATIENTS: RISK FACTORS FOR SEVERE FORMS AND DEATH

We describe the rate of incidence of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) in hematologic and patients undergone stem cell transplant (HSCT) at HC-FMUSP, from January 2007 to June 2011, using two denominators 1,000 patient and 1,000 days of neutropenia and the risk factors associated with the severe form of the disease and death. The ELISA method (Ridascreen-Biopharm, Germany) for the detections of toxins A/B was used to identify C. difficile. A multivariate analysis was performed to evaluate potential factors associated with severe CDAD and death within 14 days after the diagnosis of CDAD, using multiple logistic regression. Sixty-six episodes were identified in 64 patients among 439 patients with diarrhea during the study period. CDA rate of incidence varied from 0.78 to 5.45 per 1,000 days of neutropenia and from 0.65 to 5.45 per 1,000 patient-days. The most common underlying disease was acute myeloid leukemia 30/64 (44%), 32/64 (46%) patients were neutropenic, 31/64 (45%) undergone allogeneic HSCT, 61/64 (88%) had previously used antibiotics and 9/64 (13%) have severe CDAD. Most of the patients (89%) received treatment with oral metronidazole and 19/64 (26%) died. The independent risk factors associated with death were the severe form of CDAD, and use of linezolid.

The significance of Traveler's Route Knowledge for Choice of commuting mode of transport

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

CHICKEN COOPS, Triatoma dimidiata INFESTATION AND ITS INFECTION WITH Trypanosoma cruzi IN A RURAL VILLAGE OF YUCATAN, MEXICO

This study longitudinally investigated the association between Triatoma dimidiata infestation, triatomine infection with Trypanosoma cruzi and household/backyard environmental characteristics in 101 homesteads in Molas and Yucatan, Mexico, between November 2009 (rainy season) and May 2010 (dry season). Logistic regression models tested the associations between insect infestation/infection and potential household-level risk factors. A total of 200 T. dimidiata were collected from 35.6% of the homesteads, mostly (73%) from the peridomicile. Of all the insects collected, 48% were infected with T. cruzi. Infected insects were collected in 31.6% of the homesteads (54.1% and 45.9% intra- and peridomiciliary, respectively). Approximately 30% of all triatomines collected were found in chicken coops. The presence of a chicken coop in the backyard of a homestead was significantly associated with both the odds of finding T. dimidiata (OR = 4.10, CI 95% = 1.61-10.43, p = 0.003) and the presence of triatomines infected with T. cruzi (OR = 3.37, CI 95% = 1.36-8.33, p = 0.006). The results of this study emphasize the relevance of chicken coops as a putative source of T. dimidiata populations and a potential risk for T. cruzi transmission.

CANINE VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS CASE INVESTIGATION IN THE JACARE REGION OF NITEROI, RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL

SUMMARY American visceral leishmaniasis is a vector-borne zoonosis in expansion in Brazil. Dogs are the main urban reservoir. Departing from a case of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) in Jacaré, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro State, an epidemiological canine and entomological study was performed to assess the extension of the disease at the location. Sample was collected around the case and the dogs identified by serological tests (rapid double platform immunochromatographic exams, immunoenzymatic assay/ELISA, indirect immunofluorescence/IFAT). The parasitological diagnosis was performed in animals positive in at least one of these tests. The entomological study was carried out by using light traps and manual collection. The associations between canine variables and outcome (ELISA and IFAT reagents) were assessed by the chi-square test and adjusted by multivariate logistic regression for those associations with p < 0.1 in the bivariate analysis. Seventeen cases of CVL were detected among 110 evaluated dogs (prevalence of 15.5%). Presence of ectoparasites (OR 6.5; 95% CI 1.1-37.4), animals with clinical signs (OR 9.5; 95% CI 1.2-76.6), and previous cases of CVL in the same house (OR 17.9; 95% CI 2.2-147.1) were associated with the outcome. Lutzomyia longipalpiswas not detected. Our results are indicative of an ongoing transmission in the area.

Is It Possible to Simplify Risk Stratification Scores for Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Primary Angioplasty?

INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.

Lower Atherosclerotic Burden in Familial Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

OBJECTIVE: Despite the apparent familial tendency toward abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) formation, the genetic causes and underlying molecular mechanisms are still undefined. In this study, we investigated the association between familial AAA (fAAA) and atherosclerosis. METHODS: Data were collected from a prospective database including AAA patients between 2004 and 2012 in the Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Family history was obtained by written questionnaire (93.1% response rate). Patients were classified as fAAA when at least one affected first-degree relative with an aortic aneurysm was reported. Patients without an affected first-degree relative were classified as sporadic AAA (spAAA). A standardized ultrasound measurement of the common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), a marker for generalized atherosclerosis, was routinely performed and patients' clinical characteristics (demographics, aneurysm characteristics, cardiovascular comorbidities and risk factors, and medication use) were recorded. Multivariable linear regression analyses were used to assess the mean adjusted difference in CIMT and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to calculate associations of increased CIMT and clinical characteristics between fAAA and spAAA. RESULTS: A total of 461 AAA patients (85% men, mean age, 70 years) were included in the study; 103 patients (22.3%) were classified as fAAA and 358 patients (77.7%) as spAAA. The mean (standard deviation) CIMT in patients with fAAA was 0.89 (0.24) mm and 1.00 (0.29) mm in patients with spAAA (P = .001). Adjustment for clinical characteristics showed a mean difference in CIMT of 0.09 mm (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.15; P = .011) between both groups. Increased CIMT, smoking, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus were all less associated with fAAA compared with spAAA. CONCLUSIONS: The current study shows a lower atherosclerotic burden, as reflected by a lower CIMT, in patients with fAAA compared with patients with spAAA, independent of common atherosclerotic risk factors. These results support the hypothesis that although atherosclerosis is a common underlying feature in patients with aneurysms, atherosclerosis is not the primary driving factor in the development of fAAA.

Information Systems Outsourcing Adoption

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Food Allergy and Anaphylaxis in Infants and Preschool-Age Children

Food allergy (FA) prevalence data in infants and preschool-age children are sparse, and proposed risk factors lack confirmation. In this study, 19 children’s day care centers (DCC) from 2 main Portuguese cities were selected after stratification and cluster analysis. An ISAAC’s (International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood) derived health questionnaire was applied to a sample of children attending DCCs. Outcomes were FA parental report and anaphylaxis. Logistic regression was used to explore potential risk factors for reported FA. From the 2228 distributed questionnaires, 1217 were included in the analysis (54.6%). Children’s median age was 3.5 years, and 10.8% were described as ever having had FA. Current FA was reported in 5.7%. Three (0.2%) reports compatible with anaphylaxis were identified. Reported parental history of FA, personal history of atopic dermatitis, and preterm birth increased the odds for reported current FA. A high prevalence of parental-perceived FA in preschool-age children was identified. Risk factor identification may enhance better prevention.

Drug-Induced Anaphylaxis Survey in Portuguese Allergy Departments

Background and Objective: Drug-induced anaphylaxis is an unpredictable and potentially fatal adverse drug reaction. The aim of this study was to identify the causes of drug-induced anaphylaxis in Portugal. Methods: During a 4-year period a nationwide notification system for anaphylaxis was implemented, with voluntary reporting by allergists. Data on 313 patients with drug anaphylaxis were received and reviewed. Statistical analysis included distribution tests and multiple logistic regression analysis to investigate significance, regression coefficients, and marginal effects. Results: The mean (SD) age of the patients was 43.8 (17.4) years, and 8.3% were younger than 18 years. The female to male ratio was 2:1. The main culprits were nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (47.9% of cases), antibiotics (35.5%), and anesthetic agents (6.1%). There was a predominance of mucocutaneous symptoms (92.2%), followed by respiratory symptoms (80.4%) and cardiovascular symptoms (49.0%). Patients with NSAID-induced anaphylaxis showed a tendency towards respiratory and mucocutaneous manifestations. We found no significant associations between age, sex, or atopy and type of drug. Anaphylaxis recurrence was observed in 25.6% of cases, and the risk was higher when NSAIDs were involved. Conclusions: NSAIDs were the most common cause of anaphylaxis in this study and were also associated with a higher rate of recurrence. We stress the need for better therapeutic management and prevention of recurring episodes of drug-induced anaphylaxis.