932 resultados para Multilevel linear model


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OBJECTIVE To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC), and high-income (HIC) countries. METHODS Patients aged 16 years or older starting cART in a clinic participating in a multicohort collaboration spanning 6 continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multilevel linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender, and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed. RESULTS In total, 379,865 patients from 9 LIC, 4 LMIC, 4 UMIC, and 6 HIC were included. In LIC, the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/μL between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC, and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/μL (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/μL (53%), and 209 to 274 cells/μL (31%). In 2009, compared with LIC, median counts were 13 cells/μL [95% confidence interval (CI): -56 to +30] lower in LMIC, 22 cells/μL (-62 to +18) lower in UMIC, and 112 cells/μL (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/μL (95% CI: +18 to +28 cells/μL) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/μL (95% CI: +35 to +141 cells/μL) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared with countries with <40% coverage. CONCLUSIONS Median CD4 cell counts at the start of cART increased 2000-2009 but remained below 200 cells/μL in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/μL in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

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Increased renal resistive index (RRI) has been recently associated with target organ damage and cardiovascular or renal outcomes in patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus. However, reference values in the general population and information on familial aggregation are largely lacking. We determined the distribution of RRI, associated factors, and heritability in a population-based study. Families of European ancestry were randomly selected in 3 Swiss cities. Anthropometric parameters and cardiovascular risk factors were assessed. A renal Doppler ultrasound was performed, and RRI was measured in 3 segmental arteries of both kidneys. We used multilevel linear regression analysis to explore the factors associated with RRI, adjusting for center and family relationships. Sex-specific reference values for RRI were generated according to age. Heritability was estimated by variance components using the ASSOC program (SAGE software). Four hundred women (mean age±SD, 44.9±16.7 years) and 326 men (42.1±16.8 years) with normal renal ultrasound had mean RRI of 0.64±0.05 and 0.62±0.05, respectively (P<0.001). In multivariable analyses, RRI was positively associated with female sex, age, systolic blood pressure, and body mass index. We observed an inverse correlation with diastolic blood pressure and heart rate. Age had a nonlinear association with RRI. We found no independent association of RRI with diabetes mellitus, hypertension treatment, smoking, cholesterol levels, or estimated glomerular filtration rate. The adjusted heritability estimate was 42±8% (P<0.001). In a population-based sample with normal renal ultrasound, RRI normal values depend on sex, age, blood pressure, heart rate, and body mass index. The significant heritability of RRI suggests that genes influence this phenotype.

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When tilted sideways participants misperceive the visual vertical assessed by means of a luminous line in otherwise complete dark- ness. A recent modeling approach (De Vrijer et al., 2009) claimed that these typical patterns of errors (known as A- and E-effects) could be explained by as- suming that participants behave in a Bayes optimal manner. In this study, we experimentally manipulate participants’ prior information about body-in-space orientation and measure the effect of this manipulation on the subjective visual vertical (SVV). Specifically, we explore the effects of veridical and misleading instructions about body tilt orientations on the SVV. We used a psychophys- ical 2AFC SVV task at roll tilt angles of 0 degrees, 16 degrees and 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants were tilted to 4 degrees under different instruction conditions: in one condition, participants received veridical instructions as to their tilt angle, whereas in another condition, participants received the mis- leading instruction that their body position was perfectly upright. Our results indicate systematic differences between the instruction conditions at 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants did not simply use an ego-centric reference frame in the misleading condition; instead, participants’ estimates of the SVV seem to lie between their head’s Z-axis and the estimate of the SVV as measured in the veridical condition. All participants displayed A-effects at roll tilt an- gles of 16 degrees CW and CCW. We discuss our results in the context of the Bayesian model by De Vrijer et al. (2009), and claim that this pattern of re- sults is consistent with a manipulation of precision of a prior distribution over body-in-space orientations. Furthermore, we introduce a Bayesian Generalized Linear Model for estimating parameters of participants’ psychometric function, which allows us to jointly estimate group level and individual level parameters under all experimental conditions simultaneously, rather than relying on the traditional two-step approach to obtaining group level parameter estimates.

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Any functionally important mutation is embedded in an evolutionary matrix of other mutations. Cladistic analysis, based on this, is a method of investigating gene effects using a haplotype phylogeny to define a set of tests which localize causal mutations to branches of the phylogeny. Previous implementations of cladistic analysis have not addressed the issue of analyzing data from related individuals, though in human studies, family data are usually needed to obtain unambiguous haplotypes. In this study, a method of cladistic analysis is described in which haplotype effects are parameterized in a linear model which accounts for familial correlations. The method was used to study the effect of apolipoprotein (Apo) B gene variation on total-, LDL-, and HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride, and Apo B levels in 121 French families. Five polymorphisms defined Apo B haplotypes: the signal peptide Insertion/deletion, Bsp 1286I, XbaI, MspI, and EcoRI. Eleven haplotypes were found, and a haplotype phylogeny was constructed and used to define a set of tests of haplotype effects on lipid and apo B levels.^ This new method of cladistic analysis, the parametric method, found significant effects for single haplotypes for all variables. For HDL-cholesterol, 3 clusters of evolutionarily-related haplotypes affecting levels were found. Haplotype effects accounted for about 10% of the genetic variance of triglyceride and HDL-cholesterol levels. The results of the parametric method were compared to those of a method of cladistic analysis based on permutational testing. The permutational method detected fewer haplotype effects, even when modified to account for correlations within families. Simulation studies exploring these differences found evidence of systematic errors in the permutational method due to the process by which haplotype groups were selected for testing.^ The applicability of cladistic analysis to human data was shown. The parametric method is suggested as an improvement over the permutational method. This study has identified candidate haplotypes for sequence comparisons in order to locate the functional mutations in the Apo B gene which may influence plasma lipid levels. ^

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In numerous intervention studies and education field trials, random assignment to treatment occurs in clusters rather than at the level of observation. This departure of random assignment of units may be due to logistics, political feasibility, or ecological validity. Data within the same cluster or grouping are often correlated. Application of traditional regression techniques, which assume independence between observations, to clustered data produce consistent parameter estimates. However such estimators are often inefficient as compared to methods which incorporate the clustered nature of the data into the estimation procedure (Neuhaus 1993).1 Multilevel models, also known as random effects or random components models, can be used to account for the clustering of data by estimating higher level, or group, as well as lower level, or individual variation. Designing a study, in which the unit of observation is nested within higher level groupings, requires the determination of sample sizes at each level. This study investigates the design and analysis of various sampling strategies for a 3-level repeated measures design on the parameter estimates when the outcome variable of interest follows a Poisson distribution. ^ Results study suggest that second order PQL estimation produces the least biased estimates in the 3-level multilevel Poisson model followed by first order PQL and then second and first order MQL. The MQL estimates of both fixed and random parameters are generally satisfactory when the level 2 and level 3 variation is less than 0.10. However, as the higher level error variance increases, the MQL estimates become increasingly biased. If convergence of the estimation algorithm is not obtained by PQL procedure and higher level error variance is large, the estimates may be significantly biased. In this case bias correction techniques such as bootstrapping should be considered as an alternative procedure. For larger sample sizes, those structures with 20 or more units sampled at levels with normally distributed random errors produced more stable estimates with less sampling variance than structures with an increased number of level 1 units. For small sample sizes, sampling fewer units at the level with Poisson variation produces less sampling variation, however this criterion is no longer important when sample sizes are large. ^ 1Neuhaus J (1993). “Estimation efficiency and Tests of Covariate Effects with Clustered Binary Data”. Biometrics , 49, 989–996^

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Blood cholesterol and blood pressure development in childhood and adolescence have important impact on the future adult level of cholesterol and blood pressure, and on increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. The U.S. has higher mortality rates of coronary heart diseases than Japan. A longitudinal comparison in children of risk factor development in the two countries provides more understanding about the causes of cardiovascular disease and its prevention. Such comparisons have not been reported in the past. ^ In Project HeartBeat!, 506 non-Hispanic white, 136 black and 369 Japanese children participated in the study in the U.S. and Japan from 1991 to 1995. A synthetic cohort of ages 8 to 18 years was composed by three cohorts with starting ages at 8, 11, and 14. A multilevel regression model was used for data analysis. ^ The study revealed that the Japanese children had significantly higher slopes of mean total cholesterol (TC) and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels than the U.S. children after adjusting for age and sex. The mean TC level of Japanese children was not significantly different from white and black children. The mean HDL level of Japanese children was significantly higher than white and black children after adjusting for age and sex. The ratio of HDL/TC in Japanese children was significantly higher than in U.S. whites, but not significantly different from the black children. The Japanese group had significantly lower mean diastolic blood pressure phase IV (DBP4) and phase V (DBP5) than the two U.S. groups. The Japanese group also showed significantly higher slopes in systolic blood pressure, DBP5 and DBP4 during the study period than both U.S. groups. The differences were independent from height and body mass index. ^ The study provided the first longitudinal comparison of blood cholesterol and blood pressure between the U.S. and Japanese children and adolescents. It revealed the dynamic process of these factors in the three ethnic groups. ^

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PURPOSE In patients with schizophrenia, premorbid psychosocial adjustment is an important predictor of functional outcome. We studied functional outcome in young clinical high-risk (CHR) patients and how this was predicted by their childhood to adolescence premorbid adjustment. METHODS In all, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were assessed with the Premorbid Adjustment Scale, the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS) and the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-A). The SIPS assesses positive, negative, disorganised, general symptoms, and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), the SPI-A self-experienced basic symptoms; they were carried out at baseline, at 9-month and 18-month follow-up. Transitions to psychosis were identified. In the hierarchical linear model, associations between premorbid adjustment, background data, symptoms, transitions to psychosis and GAF scores were analysed. RESULTS During the 18-month follow-up, GAF scores improved significantly, and the proportion of patients with poor functioning decreased from 74% to 37%. Poor premorbid adjustment, single marital status, poor work status, and symptoms were associated with low baseline GAF scores. Low GAF scores were predicted by poor premorbid adjustment, negative, positive and basic symptoms, and poor baseline work status. The association between premorbid adjustment and follow-up GAF scores remained significant, even when baseline GAF and transition to psychosis were included in the model. CONCLUSION A great majority of help-seeking CHR patients suffer from deficits in their functioning. In CHR patients, premorbid psychosocial adjustment, baseline positive, negative, basic symptoms and poor working/schooling situation predict poor short-term functional outcome. These aspects should be taken into account when acute intervention and long-term rehabilitation for improving outcome in CHR patients are carried out.

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OBJECTIVE This retrospective observational pilot study examined differences in peri-implant bone level changes (ΔIBL) between two similar implant types differing only in the surface texture of the neck. The hypothesis tested was that ΔIBL would be greater with machined-neck implants than with groovedneck implants. METHOD AND MATERIALS 40 patients were enrolled; n = 20 implants with machined (group 1) and n = 20 implants with a rough, grooved neck (group 2), all placed in the posterior mandible. Radiographs were obtained after loading (at 3 to 9 months) and at 12 to 18 months after implant insertion. Case number calculation with respect to ΔIBL was conducted. Groups were compared using a Brunner-Langer model, the Mann-Whitney test, the Wilcoxon signed rank test, and linear model analysis. RESULTS After the 12- to 18-month observation period, mean ΔIBL was -1.11 ± 0.92 mm in group 1 and -1.25 ± 1.23 mm in group 2. ΔIBL depended significantly on time (P < .001), but not on group. In both groups, mean marginal ΔIBL was significantly less than -1.5 mm. Only insertion depth had a significant influence on the amount of periimplant bone loss (P = .013). Case number estimate testing for a difference between group 1 and 2 with a power of 90% revealed a sample size per group of 1,032 subjects. CONCLUSION ΔIBL values indicated that both implant designs fulfilled implant success criteria, and the modification of implant neck texture had no significant influence on ΔIBL.

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BACKGROUND Since the pioneering work of Jacobson and Suarez, microsurgery has steadily progressed and is now used in all surgical specialities, particularly in plastic surgery. Before performing clinical procedures it is necessary to learn the basic techniques in the laboratory. OBJECTIVE To assess an animal model, thereby circumventing the following issues: ethical rules, cost, anesthesia and training time. METHODS Between July 2012 and September 2012, 182 earthworms were used for 150 microsurgical trainings to simulate discrepancy microanastomoses. Training was undertaken over 10 weekly periods. Each training session included 15 simulations of microanastomoses performed using the Harashina technique (earthworm diameters >1.5 mm [n=5], between 1.0 mm and 1.5 mm [n=5], and <1.0 mm [n=5]). The technique is presented and documented. A linear model with main variable as the number of the week (as a numeric covariate) and the size of the animal (as a factor) was used to determine the trend in time of anastomosis over subsequent weeks as well as differences between the different size groups. RESULTS The linear model showed a significant trend (P<0.001) in time of anastomosis in the course of the training, as well as significant differences (P<0.001) between the groups of animal of different sizes. For diameter >1.5 mm, mean anastomosis time decreased from 19.6±1.9 min to 12.6±0.7 min between the first and last week of training. For training involving smaller diameters, the results showed a reduction in execution time of 36.1% (P<0.01) (diameter between 1.0 mm and 1.5 mm) and 40.6% (P<0.01) (diameter <1.0 mm) between the first and last weeks. The study demonstrates an improvement in the dexterity and speed of nodes' execution. CONCLUSION The earthworm appears to be a reliable experimental model for microsurgical training of discrepancy microanastomoses. Its numerous advantages, as discussed in the present report, show that this model of training will significantly grow and develop in the near future.

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Trabecular bone score (TBS) rests on the textural analysis of DXA to reflect the decay in trabecular structure characterising osteoporosis. Yet, its discriminative power in fracture studies remains incomprehensible as prior biomechanical tests found no correlation with vertebral strength. To verify this result possibly due to an unrealistic set-up and to cover a wide range of loading scenarios, the data from three previous biomechanical studies using different experimental settings was used. They involved the compressive failure of 62 human lumbar vertebrae loaded 1) via intervertebral discs to mimic the in vivo situation (“full vertebra”), 2) via the classical endplate embedding (“vertebral body”) or 3) via a ball joint to induce anterior wedge failure (“vertebral section”). HR-pQCT scans acquired prior testing were used to simulate anterior-posterior DXA from which areal bone mineral density (aBMD) and the initial slope of the variogram (ISV), the early definition of TBS, were evaluated. Finally, the relation of aBMD and ISV with failure load (Fexp) and apparent failure stress (σexp) was assessed and their relative contribution to a multi-linear model was quantified via ANOVA. We found that, unlike aBMD, ISV did not significantly correlate with Fexp and σexp, except for the “vertebral body” case (r2 = 0.396, p = 0.028). Aside from the “vertebra section” set-up where it explained only 6.4% of σexp (p = 0.037), it brought no significant improvement to aBMD. These results indicate that ISV, a replica of TBS, is a poor surrogate for vertebral strength no matter the testing set-up, which supports the prior observations and raises a fortiori the question of the deterministic factors underlying the statistical relationship between TBS and vertebral fracture risk.

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BACKGROUND Genome-wide association studies have linked CYP17A1 coding for the steroid hormone synthesizing enzyme 17α-hydroxylase (CYP17A1) to blood pressure (BP). We hypothesized that the genetic signal may translate into a correlation of ambulatory BP (ABP) with apparent CYP17A1 activity in a family-based population study and estimated the heritability of CYP17A1 activity. METHODS In the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension, day and night urinary excretions of steroid hormone metabolites were measured in 518 participants (220 men, 298 women), randomly selected from the general population. CYP17A1 activity was assessed by 2 ratios of urinary steroid metabolites: one estimating the combined 17α-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase activity (ratio 1) and the other predominantly 17α-hydroxylase activity (ratio 2). A mixed linear model was used to investigate the association of ABP with log-transformed CYP17A1 activities exploring effect modification by urinary sodium excretion. RESULTS Daytime ABP was positively associated with ratio 1 under conditions of high, but not low urinary sodium excretion (P interaction <0.05). Ratio 2 was not associated with ABP. Heritability estimates (SE) for day and night CYP17A1 activities were 0.39 (0.10) and 0.40 (0.09) for ratio 1, and 0.71 (0.09) and 0.55 (0.09) for ratio 2 (P values <0.001). CYP17A1 activities, assessed with ratio 1, were lower in older participants. CONCLUSIONS Low apparent CYP17A1 activity (assessed with ratio 1) is associated with elevated daytime ABP when salt intake is high. CYP17A1 activity is heritable and diminished in the elderly. These observations highlight the modifying effect of salt intake on the association of CYP17A1 with BP.

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BACKGROUND: In equine laminitis, the deep digital flexor muscle (DDFM) appears to have increased muscle force, but evidence-based confirmation is lacking. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to test if the DDFM of laminitic equines has an increased muscle force detectable by needle electromyography interference pattern analysis (IPA). ANIMALS AND METHODS: The control group included six Royal Dutch Sport horses, three Shetland ponies and one Welsh pony [10 healthy, sound adults weighing 411 ± 217 kg (mean ± SD) and aged 10 ± 5 years]. The laminitic group included three Royal Dutch Sport horses, one Friesian, one Haflinger, one Icelandic horse, one Welsh pony, one miniature Appaloosa and six Shetland ponies (14 adults, weight 310 ± 178 kg, aged 13 ± 6 years) with acute/chronic laminitis. The electromyography IPA measurements included firing rate, turns/second (T), amplitude/turn (M) and M/T ratio. Statistical analysis used a general linear model with outcomes transformed to geometric means. RESULTS: The firing rate of the total laminitic group was higher than the total control group. This difference was smaller for the ponies compared to the horses; in the horses, the geometric mean difference of the laminitic group was 1.73 [geometric 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-2.32], and in the ponies this value was 1.09 (geometric 95% CI 0.82-1.45). CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: In human medicine, an increased firing rate is characteristic of increased muscle force. Thus, the increased firing rate of the DDFM in the context of laminitis suggests an elevated muscle force. However, this seems to be only a partial effect as in this study, the unchanged turns/second and amplitude/turn failed to prove the recruitment of larger motor units with larger amplitude motor unit potentials in laminitic equids.

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In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

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Objective: Colorectal cancer (CRC) can be largely prevented or effectively treated in its early stages, yet disparities exist in timely screening. The aim of this study was to explore the disparities in CRC screening on the basis of health insurance status including private, Medicare, Medicaid, and State Administered General Assistance (SAGA). Methods: A retrospective chart review for the period January 2000 to May 2007 (95 records) was conducted at two clinic sites; a private clinic and a university hospital clinic. All individuals at these sites who met study criteria (>50 years old with screening colonoscopy) were included. Age, gender, date of first clinic visit when screening referral was made, and date of completed procedure (screening colonoscopy) were recorded. Groups were dichotomized between individuals with private health insurance and individuals with public health insurance. Individuals with any history of CRC, known pre-cancerous conditions as well as family history of CRC requiring frequent colonoscopy were excluded from the study. Linear model analysis was performed to compare the average waiting time to receiving screening colonoscopy between the groups. T-test was performed to analyze age or gender related differences between the two groups as well as within each group. Results: The average waiting time (33 days) for screening colonoscopy in privately insured individuals was significantly lower than publicly insured individuals (200 days). The time difference between the first clinic visit and the procedure was statistically significant (p < 0.0001) between the two groups. There was no statistical difference (p=0.089) in gender between these groups (public vs. private). There were also no statistically significant gender or age related differences found within each group. Conclusions: Disparities exist in timely screening for CRC and one of the barriers leading to delayed CRC screening includes health insurance status of an individual. Even within the insured group, type of insurance plays major role. There is a negative correlation between public health insurance status and timely screening. Differences in access to medical care and delivery of care experienced by patients who are publicly insured through Medicaid, Medicare, and SAGA, suggests that the State of Connecticut needs to implement changes in health care policies that would provide timely screening colonoscopy. It is evident that health insurance coverage facilitates timely access to healthcare. Therefore, there is a need for increased efforts in advocacy for policy, payment and physician participation in public insurance programs. A state-wide comprehensive program involving multiple components targeting different levels of change such as provider, patients and the community should help reduce some of the observed causes of healthcare disparities based on the insurance status.

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Background. The purpose of this study was to describe the risk factors and demographics of persons with salmonellosis and shigellosis and to investigate both seasonal and spatial variations in the occurrence of these infections in Texas from 2000 to 2004, utilizing time series analyses and the geographic information system digital mapping methods. ^ Methods. Spatial Analysis: MapInfo software was used to map the distribution of age-adjusted rates of reported shigellosis and salmonellosis in Texas from 2000–2004 by zip codes. Census data on above or below poverty level, household income, highest level of educational attainment, race, ethnicity, and urban/rural community status was obtained from the 2000 Decennial Census for each zip code. The zip codes with the upper 10% and lower 10% were compared using t-tests and logistic regression to determine whether there were any potential risk factors. ^ Temporal analysis. Seasonal patterns in the prevalence of infections in Texas from 2000 to 2003 were determined by performing time-series analysis on the numbers of cases of salmonellosis and shigellosis. A linear regression was also performed to assess for trends in the incidence of each disease, along with auto-correlation and multi-component cosinor analysis. ^ Results. Spatial analysis: Analysis by general linear model showed a significant association between infection rates and age, with young children aged less than 5 and those aged 5–9 years having increased risk of infection for both disease conditions. The data demonstrated that those populations with high percentages of people who attained a higher than high school education were less likely to be represented in zip codes with high rates of shigellosis. However, for salmonellosis, logistic regression models indicated that when compared to populations with high percentages of non-high school graduates, having a high school diploma or equivalent increased the odds of having a high rate of infection. ^ Temporal analysis. For shigellosis, multi-component cosinor analyses were used to determine the approximated cosine curve which represented a statistically significant representation of the time series data for all age groups by sex. The shigellosis results show 2 peaks, with a major peak occurring in June and a secondary peak appearing around October. Salmonellosis results showed a single peak and trough in all age groups with the peak occurring in August and the trough occurring in February. ^ Conclusion. The results from this study can be used by public health agencies to determine the timing of public health awareness programs and interventions in order to prevent salmonellosis and shigellosis from occurring. Because young children depend on adults for their meals, it is important to increase the awareness of day-care workers and new parents about modes of transmission and hygienic methods of food preparation and storage. ^