876 resultados para Modeling Rapport Using Hidden Markov Models
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Obesity is of global health concern. There are well-described inverse relationships between female pubertal timing and obesity. Recent genome-wide association studies of age at menarche identified several obesity-related variants. Using data from the ReproGen Consortium, we employed meta-analytical techniques to estimate the associations of 95 a priori and recently identified obesity-related (body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)), waist circumference, and waist:hip ratio) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with age at menarche in 92,116 women of European descent from 38 studies (1970-2010), in order to estimate associations between genetic variants associated with central or overall adiposity and pubertal timing in girls. Investigators in each study performed a separate analysis of associations between the selected SNPs and age at menarche (ages 9-17 years) using linear regression models and adjusting for birth year, site (as appropriate), and population stratification. Heterogeneity of effect-measure estimates was investigated using meta-regression. Six novel associations of body mass index loci with age at menarche were identified, and 11 adiposity loci previously reported to be associated with age at menarche were confirmed, but none of the central adiposity variants individually showed significant associations. These findings suggest complex genetic relationships between menarche and overall obesity, and to a lesser extent central obesity, in normal processes of growth and development.
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OBJECTIVE: To compare surgical site infection (SSI) rates in open or laparoscopic appendectomy, cholecystectomy, and colon surgery. To investigate the effect of laparoscopy on SSI in these interventions. BACKGROUND: Lower rates of SSI have been reported among various advantages associated with laparoscopy when compared with open surgery, particularly in cholecystectomy. However, biases such as the lack of postdischarge follow-up and confounding factors might have contributed to the observed differences between the 2 techniques. METHODS: This observational study was based on prospectively collected data from an SSI surveillance program in 8 Swiss hospitals between March 1998 and December 2004, including a standardized postdischarge follow-up. SSI rates were compared between laparoscopic and open interventions. Factors associated with SSI were identified by using logistic regression models to adjust for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: SSI rates in laparoscopic and open interventions were respectively 59/1051 (5.6%) versus 117/1417 (8.3%) in appendectomy (P = 0.01), 46/2606 (1.7%) versus 35/444 (7.9%) in cholecystectomy (P < 0.0001), and 35/311 (11.3%) versus 400/1781 (22.5%) in colon surgery (P < 0.0001). After adjustment, laparoscopic interventions were associated with a decreased risk for SSI: OR = 0.61 (95% CI 0.43-0.87) in appendectomy, 0.27 (0.16-0.43) in cholecystectomy, and 0.43 (0.29-0.63) in colon surgery. The observed effect of laparoscopic techniques was due to a reduction in the rates of incisional infections, rather than in those of organ/space infections. CONCLUSION: When feasible, a laparoscopic approach should be preferred over open surgery to lower the risks of SSI.
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BACKGROUND: Peer pressure (PP) has been shown to play a major role in the development and continuation of alcohol use and misuse. To date, almost all the studies investigating the association of PP with alcohol use only considered the PP for misconduct but largely ignored other aspects of PP, such as pressure for peer involvement and peer conformity. Moreover, it is not clear whether the association of PP with alcohol use is direct or mediated by other factors. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association of different aspects of peer pressure (PP) with drinking volume (DV) and risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD), and to explore whether these associations were mediated by drinking motives (DM). METHODS: A representative sample of 5521 young Swiss men, aged around 20 years old, completed a questionnaire assessing their usual weekly DV, the frequency of RSOD, DM (i.e. enhancement, social, coping, and conformity motives), and 3 aspects of PP (i.e. misconduct, peer involvement, and peer conformity). Associations between PP and alcohol outcomes (DV and RSOD) as well as the mediation of DM were tested using structural equation models. RESULTS: Peer pressure to misconduct was associated with more alcohol use, whereas peer involvement and peer conformity were associated with less alcohol use. Associations of drinking outcomes with PP to misconduct and peer involvement were partially mediated by enhancement and coping motives, while the association with peer conformity was partially mediated by enhancement and conformity motives. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that PP to misconduct constitutes a risk factor, while peer conformity and peer involvement reflect protective factors with regard to alcohol use. Moreover, results from the mediation analyses suggest that part of the association of PP with alcohol use came indirectly through DM: PP was associated with DM, which in turn were associated with alcohol use.
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BACKGROUND: Quitting tobacco or alcohol use has been reported to reduce the head and neck cancer risk in previous studies. However, it is unclear how many years must pass following cessation of these habits before the risk is reduced, and whether the risk ultimately declines to the level of never smokers or never drinkers. METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium. Data were available from 13 studies on drinking cessation (9167 cases and 12 593 controls), and from 17 studies on smoking cessation (12 040 cases and 16 884 controls). We estimated the effect of quitting smoking and drinking on the risk of head and neck cancer and its subsites, by calculating odds ratios (ORs) using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Quitting tobacco smoking for 1-4 years resulted in a head and neck cancer risk reduction [OR 0.70, confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.81 compared with current smoking], with the risk reduction due to smoking cessation after >/=20 years (OR 0.23, CI 0.18-0.31), reaching the level of never smokers. For alcohol use, a beneficial effect on the risk of head and neck cancer was only observed after >/=20 years of quitting (OR 0.60, CI 0.40-0.89 compared with current drinking), reaching the level of never drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support that cessation of tobacco smoking and cessation of alcohol drinking protect against the development of head and neck cancer.
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Background Maternal exposure to air pollution has been related to fetal growth in a number of recent scientific studies. The objective of this study was to assess the association between exposure to air pollution during pregnancy and anthropometric measures at birth in a cohort in Valencia, Spain. Methods Seven hundred and eighty-five pregnant women and their singleton newborns participated in the study. Exposure to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was estimated by means of land use regression. NO2 spatial estimations were adjusted to correspond to relevant pregnancy periods (whole pregnancy and trimesters) for each woman. Outcome variables were birth weight, length, and head circumference (HC), along with being small for gestational age (SGA). The association between exposure to residential outdoor NO2 and outcomes was assessed controlling for potential confounders and examining the shape of the relationship using generalized additive models (GAM). Results For continuous anthropometric measures, GAM indicated a change in slope at NO2 concentrations of around 40 μg/m3. NO2 exposure >40 μg/m3 during the first trimester was associated with a change in birth length of -0.27 cm (95% CI: -0.51 to -0.03) and with a change in birth weight of -40.3 grams (-96.3 to 15.6); the same exposure throughout the whole pregnancy was associated with a change in birth HC of -0.17 cm (-0.34 to -0.003). The shape of the relation was seen to be roughly linear for the risk of being SGA. A 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 during the second trimester was associated with being SGA-weight, odds ratio (OR): 1.37 (1.01-1.85). For SGA-length the estimate for the same comparison was OR: 1.42 (0.89-2.25). Conclusions Prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution may reduce fetal growth. Findings from this study provide further evidence of the need for developing strategies to reduce air pollution in order to prevent risks to fetal health and development.
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A compositional time series is obtained when a compositional data vector is observed atdifferent points in time. Inherently, then, a compositional time series is a multivariatetime series with important constraints on the variables observed at any instance in time.Although this type of data frequently occurs in situations of real practical interest, atrawl through the statistical literature reveals that research in the field is very much in itsinfancy and that many theoretical and empirical issues still remain to be addressed. Anyappropriate statistical methodology for the analysis of compositional time series musttake into account the constraints which are not allowed for by the usual statisticaltechniques available for analysing multivariate time series. One general approach toanalyzing compositional time series consists in the application of an initial transform tobreak the positive and unit sum constraints, followed by the analysis of the transformedtime series using multivariate ARIMA models. In this paper we discuss the use of theadditive log-ratio, centred log-ratio and isometric log-ratio transforms. We also presentresults from an empirical study designed to explore how the selection of the initialtransform affects subsequent multivariate ARIMA modelling as well as the quality ofthe forecasts
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BACKGROUND: Between the 1970's and 2000 mortality in Latin America showed favorable trends for some common cancer sites, including stomach and male lung cancer in most countries. However, major concerns were related to mortality patterns from other cancers, particularly in women. We provide an up-to-date picture of patterns and trends in cancer mortality in Latin America. METHODS: We analyzed data from the World Health Organization mortality database in 2005-2009 for 20 cancer sites in 11 Latin American countries and, for comparative purposes, in the USA and Canada. We computed age-standardized (world) rates (per 100 000 person-year) and provided an overview of trends since 1980 using joinpoint regression models. RESULTS: Cancer mortality from some common cancers (including colorectum and lung) is still comparatively low in Latin America, and decreasing trends continue for some cancer sites (including stomach, uterus, male lung cancers) in several countries. However, there were upward trends for colorectal cancer for both sexes, and for women lung and breast cancer mortality in most countries. During the last decade, lung cancer mortality in women rose by 1-3% per year in all Latin American countries except Mexico and Costa Rica, whereas rises of about 1% were registered for breast cancer in Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela. Moreover, high mortality from cancer of the cervix uteri was recorded in most countries, with rates over 13/100 000 women in Cuba and Venezuela. In men, upward trends were registered in prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and Colombia, but also in Cuba, where the rate in 2005-2009 was more than twice that in the USA (23.6 versus 10/100 000). CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco control, efficient screening programs, early cancer detection and widespread access to treatments continue to be a major priority for most Latin American countries.
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BACKGROUND: Obesity is a contemporary epidemic that does not affect all age groups and sections of society equally. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to examine socioeconomic differences in trajectories of body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) and obesity between the ages of 45 and 65 y. DESIGN: A total of 13,297 men and 4532 women from the French GAZEL (Gaz de France Electricité de France) cohort study reported their height in 1990 and their weight annually over the subsequent 18 y. Changes in BMI and obesity between ages 45 and 49 y, 50 and 54 y, 55 and 59 y, and 60 and 65 y as a function of education and occupational position (at age 35 y) were modeled by using linear mixed models and generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: BMI and obesity rates increased between the ages of 45 and 65 y. In men, BMI was higher in unskilled workers than in managers at age 45 y; this difference in BMI increased from 0.82 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.99) at 45 y to 1.06 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.27) at 65 y. Men with a primary school education compared with those with a high school degree at age 45 y had a 0.75 (95% CI: 0.51, 1.00) higher BMI, and this difference increased to 1.32 (95% CI: 1.03,1.62) at age 65 y. Obesity rates were 3.35% and 7.68% at age 45 y and 9.52% and 18.10% at age 65 y in managers and unskilled workers, respectively; the difference in obesity increased by 4.25% (95% CI: 1.87, 6.52). A similar trend was observed in women. Conclusions: Weight continues to increase in the transition between midlife and old age; this increase is greater in lower socioeconomic groups.
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The ceramic shell is a material mainly used for making foundry molds. This research demonstrates that ceramic shell can be used for making sculptures with exceptional definition in its finish. The research has identified a number of advantages of the material to meet the challenges of an artist during the making of a sculpture. The research has been developed in six stages: In the first stage data were collected from the chaff as the process material. This was the starting point for research. In the second stage, we have set the appropriate composition of the slurry, both in percentage and type of binder, and firing curve. To this end, we evaluated the application characteristics, thickness, drying, mechanical strength, the reduction coefficient and porosity. In the third stage it was observed that the husk is suitable for all types of materials acting as support. It was also found that the slurry can be used with various sculptural processes: modeling, molding using silicone or plaster mold, shuttering, with internal metal frame, and so on. In addition, we have established methods to repair and modify the husk by hand and power tools. In the fourth stage we have found ways to modify the surface of the husk with other minerals that affect the structure: introduction of filing of copper, bronze and iron in the slurry ceramics, different staining procedure in hot or cold, by enamel slip, and so on. In the fifth stage sculptures were made using the methods established in the previous stages, to verify this hypothesis. The sixth stage, which is annexed, contains a new method to process the ceramic shell as a mold in casting that emerged from the proven methods in the investigation.
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With increasing costs for conducting surveys, many survey agencies resort to implementing call strategies. Obtaining contact in panel surveys as early as possible, without annoying people by contacting them at undesired times and ultimately causing them to refuse, requires using efficient call time strategies. In this research, the author uses call data from the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), a centralized Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) survey with a randomized (experimental) call-household assignment. Using random effects models, the author analyzes the efficiency gains of obtaining initial contact by assigning optimal times to first calls, and times and spacing to second and later calls depending on household sociodemography and prior call patterns. The author concludes with some recommendations for making early and successful contact during fieldwork.
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Fear of negative evaluation (FNE) is regarded as being the core feature of social anxiety. The present study examined how FNE is associated with physical activity (PA), body mass index (BMI) and perceived physical health (PPH) in children. Data were collected in a sample of 502 primary school children in first and fifth grades taking part in a randomized-controlled trial ("Kinder-Sportstudie KISS") aimed at increasing PA and health. PA was assessed by accelerometry over 7 days, PPH by the Child Health Questionnaire and FNE by the Social Anxiety Scale for Children--Revised. BMI z-scores were calculated based on Swiss norms. Cross-sectional analyses indicated that children high in FNE exercised less, reported lower levels of PPH and had higher BMI z-scores (P<0.01). Using mixed linear models, the school-based PA intervention did not manage to reduce FNE scores. Overweight children demonstrated a greater increase in FNE (P<0.05) indicating that enhanced weight may be a risk factor for FNE. In conclusion, the associations among high FNE, low PA and increased BMI should be considered when promoting an active lifestyle in children.
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In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO(2), once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 microg/m(3) increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO(2)level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval (CI), -0.003-0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution.
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The organophosphate temephos has been the main insecticide used against larvae of the dengue and yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) in Brazil since the mid-1980s. Reports of resistance date back to 1995; however, no systematic reports of widespread temephos resistance have occurred to date. As resistance investigation is paramount for strategic decision-making by health officials, our objective here was to investigate the spatial and temporal spread of temephos resistance in Ae. aegypti in Brazil for the last 12 years using discriminating temephos concentrations and the bioassay protocols of the World Health Organization. The mortality results obtained were subjected to spatial analysis for distance interpolation using semi-variance models to generate maps that depict the spread of temephos resistance in Brazil since 1999. The problem has been expanding. Since 2002-2003, approximately half the country has exhibited mosquito populations resistant to temephos. The frequency of temephos resistance and, likely, control failures, which start when the insecticide mortality level drops below 80%, has increased even further since 2004. Few parts of Brazil are able to achieve the target 80% efficacy threshold by 2010/2011, resulting in a significant risk of control failure by temephos in most of the country. The widespread resistance to temephos in Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations greatly compromise effective mosquito control efforts using this insecticide and indicates the urgent need to identify alternative insecticides aided by the preventive elimination of potential mosquito breeding sites.
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BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption may affect the course of HIV infection and/or antiretroviral therapy (ART). The authors investigated the association between self-reported alcohol consumption and HIV surrogate markers in both treated and untreated individuals. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: Over a 7-year period, the authors analyzed 2 groups of individuals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: (1) ART-naïve individuals remaining off ART and (2) individuals initiating first ART. For individuals initiating first ART, time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between alcohol consumption, virological failure, and ART interruption. For both groups, trajectories of log-transformed CD4 cell counts were analyzed using linear mixed models with repeated measures. RESULTS: The authors included 2982 individuals initiating first ART and 2085 ART naives. In individuals initiating first ART, 241 (8%) experienced virological failure. Alcohol consumption was not associated with virological failure. ART interruption was noted in 449 (15%) individuals and was more prevalent in severe compared with none/light health risk drinkers [hazard ratio: 2.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.42 to 3.52]. The association remained significant even after adjusting for nonadherence. The authors did not find an association between alcohol consumption and change in CD4 cell count over time in either group. CONCLUSIONS: No effect of alcohol consumption on either virological failure or CD4 cell count in both groups of ART-initiating and ART-naive individuals was found. However, severe drinkers were more likely to interrupt ART. Efforts on ART continuation should be especially implemented in individuals reporting high alcohol consumption.
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Endothelial cells form a semi-permeable barrier that participates in the exchange of plasma fluids, proteins and cells, and helps to maintain the physiological functions of organs as well as circulatory homeostasis. Vascular permeability and vasodilatation are increased during acute and chronic inflammation, cancer and wound healing. This is mediated by exposure to certain vascular permeability increasing factors, such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPAR) belong to the nuclear hormone receptor (NHRs) family of ligand-activated transcription factors. Three isotypes, PPARa, PPARp/5 and PPARy have been identified. They are all expressed in endothelial cells (ECs). Recent data have demonstrated their involvement in important mechanisms for vasculogenesis and angiogenesis, such as cell proliferation/differentiation, directional sensing/migration, and survival. PPARs were reported to modulate the expression of pro-angiogenic soluble factors, such as VEGF-A and may also participate in the regulation of expression of VEGF receptors. The aim of the present work was to elucidate the role of PPARp/δ in endothelial cell functions important for angiogenesis as well as in vascular permeability and vasodilatation. Using organ culture models of mouse aorta expiants, cultures of human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) and genetically modified mouse models, we studied the consequences of loss and gain of PPARp/5 activity on endothelial cell functions. In the first part of this study, we show that the activation of PPARp/δ promotes EC outgrowth in murine aorta expiants. In vivo we observed that dermal vessel acute permeability in response to VEGF-A stimulation is strongly impaired in PPARfi/δ -I- animals. Additionally, observation of the dermal vessel morphology showed a clear enlargement of the wild-type dermal vessels upon VEGF-A injection, whereas vessels of PPARp/5 -/- animals showed almost no enlargement. The impaired response to VEGF stimulation in the knock-out animals was not due to structural or morphological abnormalities. Based on this data, we suggest that PPARp/5 may act on intracellular signaling cascades in ECs, downstream of the VEGF-A receptor. In the second part of this study, we address the relevance of PPARβ/δ vascular functions in pathophysiological inflammatory conditions, such as delayed- type hypersensitivity (DTH) reaction and anaphylaxis in mice. The DTH reaction is a cell-mediated immune reaction to protein, bacterial and viral antigens, whereas anaphylaxis is the most severe form of allergic reaction. In these in vivo models, we demonstrated that the absence of PPARβ/δ in ECs prevents the formation of severe edema in the DTH reaction, and that Ρ PARβ/δ accelerates recovery following systemic anaphylaxis, at least partially through the control of vascular permeability. Our data not only describe a novel function of PPARβ/δ in vessel permeability and vasodilatation, but also open new routes of research for the development of vessel permeability/vasodilatation regulating agents. - Les cellules endothéliales qui bordent la face interne des vaisseaux sanguins forment l'endothélium, une barrière semi-perméable qui régule les échanges de fluides, de protéines et de cellules immunes entre la circulation et les organes. L'endothélium participe également au maintien de la fonction des organes et de l'homéostasie circulatoire. La perméabilité vasculaire augmente dans des situations inflammatoires aigties ou chroniques, dans les tumeurs, et pendant la réparation de blessures. Cette augmentation de perméabilité est due à la production de facteurs sécrétés, tels que le Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF-A), la thrombine ou I'histamine. Lès récepteurs nucléaires Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptors (PPAR) sont des facteurs de transcription mis en activité par des ligands. Trois isotypes de PPARs, PPARa, ΡΡΑΡβ/δ and PPARy ont été caractérisés. Ils sont exprimés dans les cellules endothéliales, et des travaux récents ont montré qu'ils régulent des comportements cellulaires importants pour la vasculogenèse et l'angiogenèse, tels que la prolifération, la différenciation, la migration, et la survie des cellules. Ils régulent également la production de VEGF-A par divers types cellulaires. Le but de ce travail était d'élucider le rôle de PPARβ/δ dans la régulation de la perméabilité vasculaire, plus particulièrement dans les cellules endothéliales. Grâce à des cultures d'expiants d'aortes de souris, à la culture d'une lignée endothéliale humaine (HUVECs) et de souris génétiquement modifiées, nous avons étudié le rôle de PPARβ/δ dans les cellules endothéliales, dans des situations gain et perte de fonction du récepteur. Dans la première partie de ce travail, nous avons montré les propriétés pro-angiogéniques de PPARβ/δ dans des explants d'aortes. In vivo, nous avons observé l'absence d'hyperperméabilité aiguë induite par le VEGF-A, la thrombine et I'histamine chez les souris PPARβ/δ -/-. De plus, l'analyse morphologique des vaisseaux dans le derme des souris après stimulation par VEGF- A a confirmé l'absence de réponse à la stimulation. Ces analyses morphologiques nous ont également permis de montrer que l'absence de réponse aiguë n'était pas due à un défaut de structure des vaisseaux dermiques chez les souris PPARp/δ -/-. Sur la base de ces résultats, nous proposons que PPARp/δ régule des voies de signalisation intracellulaires dans les cellules endothéliales, voie de signalisation impliquées dans la régulation de la perméabilité vasculaire: Dans la seconde partie du travail, nous avons étudié l'importance de la régulation de la perméabilité vasculaire par PPARβ/δ dans des situations pathophysiologiques impliquant une hyperperméabilité aiguë des vaisseaux : une réaction d'hypersensibilité cutanée retardée d'une part (delayed-type hypersensitivity, DTH), et un choc anaphylactique d'autre part. Dans ces deux modèles induits expérimentalement chez la souris, l'absence de PPARβ/δ prévient en partie la formation de l'oedème inflammatoire local (DTH), et accélère la récupération (anaphylaxie), au moins partiellement en réglant la perméabilité vasculaire. Ces résultats ouvrent un nouveau champs d'étude quant au rôle de PPARβ/δ dans les vaisseaux et à d'éventuelles applications thérapeutiques dans des pathologies inflammatoires.