Screening of surfactants for harmful algal blooms mitigation

Screening experiments were conducted in order to find promising synthetic surfactants for harmful algal blooms (HABs) mitigation. The chemically synthesized surfactant cocamidopropyl betaine (CAPB) showed characteristics of relatively high inhibition efficiency, high biodegradability and low cost. The motility inhibition ratios of 10 mg/L CAPB on Cochlodinium polykrikoides and Alexandrium tamarense were about 60% after 5 min. The biodegradation test indicated that the half-life of CAPB in seawater was shorter than one day and 90% was biodegraded after five days under the initial concentration of 100 mg/L at 25degreesC. Further cell lysis experiments revealed the selective lysis effect of CAPB on different HAB organisms. More than 90% of C. polykrikoides lysed at the concentration of 10 mg/L CAPB after 24 h and at 15 mg/L CAPB after 4 h, whereas the lysis effect of CAPB on A. tamarense was slight, no more than 10% after 2 h interaction with 50 mg/L CAPB. This research provided preliminary data for CAPB as a candidate in harmful algal blooms mitigation and pointed out unresolved problems for its practical application in the meantime. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synergistic effect of sophorolipid and loess combination in harmful algal blooms mitigation

The inhibition effect of sophorolipid and removal efficiency of loess on Cochlodinium polykrikoides and Alexandrium tamarense was investigated separately in the laboratory. Based on this, the combination of sophorolipid and loess for harmful algal bloom mitigation was proposed. Algal sedimentation tests in the laboratory and in the field revealed that the combination of sophorolipid and loess showed synergistic effects both on the removal efficiencies and on the mitigation cost. The concentration of 1 g/l loess and 5 mg/l sophorolipid was determined as the optimum ratio for C polykrikoides mitigation. In the field test, the effective concentration of loess and sophorolipid in the combination group was reduced to 10% and 25%, respectively, compared to the non-combination group, and the cost decreased more than 60%. The combination of loess and sophorolipid was considered as a promising novel method in harmful algal bloom mitigation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient Nearest Neighbor Classification Using a Cascade of Approximate Similarity Measures

Nearest neighbor classification using shape context can yield highly accurate results in a number of recognition problems. Unfortunately, the approach can be too slow for practical applications, and thus approximation strategies are needed to make shape context practical. This paper proposes a method for efficient and accurate nearest neighbor classification in non-Euclidean spaces, such as the space induced by the shape context measure. First, a method is introduced for constructing a Euclidean embedding that is optimized for nearest neighbor classification accuracy. Using that embedding, multiple approximations of the underlying non-Euclidean similarity measure are obtained, at different levels of accuracy and efficiency. The approximations are automatically combined to form a cascade classifier, which applies the slower approximations only to the hardest cases. Unlike typical cascade-of-classifiers approaches, that are applied to binary classification problems, our method constructs a cascade for a multiclass problem. Experiments with a standard shape data set indicate that a two-to-three order of magnitude speed up is gained over the standard shape context classifier, with minimal losses in classification accuracy.

Comparative Performance Measures of Fuzzy ARTMAP, Learned Vector Quantization, and Back Propagation for Handwritten Character Recognition

This article compares the performance of Fuzzy ARTMAP with that of Learned Vector Quantization and Back Propagation on a handwritten character recognition task. Training with Fuzzy ARTMAP to a fixed criterion used many fewer epochs. Voting with Fuzzy ARTMAP yielded the highest recognition rates.

Longitudinal study of changes in body mass index, anthropometric measures, dietary intake and physical activity in cohorts of school-going Irish adolescents

The prevalence of obesity worldwide has increased dramatically over the last few decades. Poor dietary habits and low levels of exercise in adolescence are often maintained into adulthood where they can impact on the incidence of obesity and chronic diseases. A 3-year longitudinal study of anthropometric, dietary and exercise parameters was carried out annually (2005 - 2007) in 3 Irish secondary schools. Anthropometric measurements were taken in each year and analysed longitudinally. Overweight and obesity were at relatively low levels in these adolescents. Height, weight, BMI, waist and hip circumferences and TST increased significantly over the 3 years. Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) decreased significantly over time. Boys were significantly taller than girls across the 3 years. A 3-day weighed food diary was used to assess food intake by the adolescents. Analysis of dietary intake data was determined using WISP©. Mean daily energy and nutrient intakes were reported. Mean daily energy and macronutrient intakes were analysed longitudinally. The adolescents’ diet was characterised by relatively high saturated fat intakes and insufficient fruit and vegetable consumption. The dietary pattern did not change significantly over the 3 years. Boys consumed more energy than girls over the study period. A validated questionnaire was used to assess physical activity and sedentary activity levels. Boys were substantially more active and had higher energy expenditure estimates than girls throughout the study. A significant longitudinal decrease in physical activity levels among the adolescents was observed. Both genders spent more than the recommended amount of time (hrs/day) pursing sedentary activities. The dietary pattern in these Irish adolescents is relatively poor. Of additional concern is the overall longitudinal decrease in physical activity levels. Promoting consumption of a balanced diet and increased exercise levels among adolescents will help to reduce future public health care costs due to weight-related diseases.

Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

The effectiveness of using patient-reported outcome measures as quality improvement tools

Aim: To investigate the value of using PROMs as quality improvement tools. Methods: Two systematic reviews were undertaken. The first reviewed the quantitative literature on the impact of PROMs feedback and the second reviewed the qualitative literature on the use of PROMs in practice. These reviews informed the focus of the primary research. A cluster randomised controlled trial (PROFILE) examined the impact of providing peer benchmarked PROMs feedback to consultant orthopaedic surgeons on improving outcomes for hip replacement surgery. Qualitative interviews with surgeons in the intervention arm of the trial examined the view of and reactions to the feedback. Results: The quantitative review of 17 studies found weak evidence to suggest that providing PROMs feedback to professionals improves patient outcomes. The qualitative review of 16 studies identified the barriers and facilitators to the use of PROMs based on four themes: practical considerations, attitudes towards the data, methodological concerns and the impact of feedback on care. The PROFILE trial included 11 surgeons and 215 patients in the intervention arm, and 10 surgeons and 217 patients in the control arm. The trial found no significant difference in the Oxford Hip Score between the arms (-0.7, 95% CI -1.9-0.5, p=0.2). Interviews with surgeons revealed mixed opinions about the value of the PROMs feedback and the information did not promote explicit changes to their practice. Conclusion: It is important to use PROMs which have been validated for the specific purpose of performance measurement, consult with professionals when developing a PROMs feedback intervention, communicate with professionals about the objectives of the data collection, educate professionals on the properties and interpretation of the data, and support professionals in using the information to improve care. It is also imperative that the burden of data collection and dissemination of the information is minimised.

Convergence of numerical time-averaging and stationary measures via Poisson equations

Numerical approximation of the long time behavior of a stochastic di.erential equation (SDE) is considered. Error estimates for time-averaging estimators are obtained and then used to show that the stationary behavior of the numerical method converges to that of the SDE. The error analysis is based on using an associated Poisson equation for the underlying SDE. The main advantages of this approach are its simplicity and universality. It works equally well for a range of explicit and implicit schemes, including those with simple simulation of random variables, and for hypoelliptic SDEs. To simplify the exposition, we consider only the case where the state space of the SDE is a torus, and we study only smooth test functions. However, we anticipate that the approach can be applied more widely. An analogy between our approach and Stein's method is indicated. Some practical implications of the results are discussed. Copyright © by SIAM. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.

Assessment of LD matrix measures for the analysis of biological pathway association.

Complex diseases will have multiple functional sites, and it will be invaluable to understand the cross-locus interaction in terms of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between those sites (epistasis) in addition to the haplotype-LD effects. We investigated the statistical properties of a class of matrix-based statistics to assess this epistasis. These statistical methods include two LD contrast tests (Zaykin et al., 2006) and partial least squares regression (Wang et al., 2008). To estimate Type 1 error rates and power, we simulated multiple two-variant disease models using the SIMLA software package. SIMLA allows for the joint action of up to two disease genes in the simulated data with all possible multiplicative interaction effects between them. Our goal was to detect an interaction between multiple disease-causing variants by means of their linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns with other markers. We measured the effects of marginal disease effect size, haplotype LD, disease prevalence and minor allele frequency have on cross-locus interaction (epistasis). In the setting of strong allele effects and strong interaction, the correlation between the two disease genes was weak (r=0.2). In a complex system with multiple correlations (both marginal and interaction), it was difficult to determine the source of a significant result. Despite these complications, the partial least squares and modified LD contrast methods maintained adequate power to detect the epistatic effects; however, for many of the analyses we often could not separate interaction from a strong marginal effect. While we did not exhaust the entire parameter space of possible models, we do provide guidance on the effects that population parameters have on cross-locus interaction.

Environmental and technology policies for climate mitigation

We assess different policies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and promoting innovation and diffusion of renewable energy. We evaluate the relative performance of policies according to incentives provided for emissions reduction, efficiency, and other outcomes. We also assess how the nature of technological progress through learning and research and development (R&D), and the degree of knowledge spillovers, affects the desirability of different policies. Due to knowledge spillovers, optimal policy involves a portfolio of different instruments targeted at emissions, learning, and R&D. Although the relative cost of individual policies in achieving reductions depends on parameter values and the emissions target, in a numerical application to the U.S. electricity sector, the ranking is roughly as follows: (1) emissions price, (2) emissions performance standard, (3) fossil power tax, (4) renewables share requirement, (5) renewables subsidy, and (6) R&D subsidy. Nonetheless, an optimal portfolio of policies achieves emissions reductions at a significantly lower cost than any single policy. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Valuing ecosystem services from wetlands restoration in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

This study assesses the value of restoring forested wetlands via the U.S. government's Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley by quantifying and monetizing ecosystem services. The three focal services are greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, nitrogen mitigation, and waterfowl recreation. Site- and region-level measurements of these ecosystem services are combined with process models to quantify their production on agricultural land, which serves as the baseline, and on restored wetlands. We adjust and transform these measures into per-hectare, valuation-ready units and monetize them with prices from emerging ecosystem markets and the environmental economics literature. By valuing three of the many ecosystem services produced, we generate lower bound estimates for the total ecosystem value of the wetlands restoration. Social welfare value is found to be between $1435 and $1486/ha/year, with GHG mitigation valued in the range of $171 to $222, nitrogen mitigation at $1248, and waterfowl recreation at $16. Limited to existing markets, the estimate for annual market value is merely $70/ha, but when fully accounting for potential markets, this estimate rises to $1035/ha. The estimated social value surpasses the public expenditure or social cost of wetlands restoration in only 1 year, indicating that the return on public investment is very attractive for the WRP. Moreover, the potential market value is substantially greater than landowner opportunity costs, showing that payments to private landowners to restore wetlands could also be profitable for individual landowners. © 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Designing Climate Mitigation Policy

This paper provides an exhaustive review of critical issues in the design of climate mitigation policy by pulling together key findings and controversies from diverse literatures on mitigation costs, damage valuation, policy instrument choice, technological innovation, and international climate policy. We begin with the broadest issue of how high assessments suggest the near and medium term price on greenhouse gases would need to be, both under cost-effective stabilization of global climate and under net benefit maximization or Pigouvian emissions pricing. The remainder of the paper focuses on the appropriate scope of regulation, issues in policy instrument choice, complementary technology policy, and international policy architectures.

Carbon mitigation costs for the commercial building sector: Discrete-continuous choice analysis of multifuel energy demand

We estimate a carbon mitigation cost curve for the U.S. commercial sector based on econometric estimation of the responsiveness of fuel demand and equipment choices to energy price changes. The model econometrically estimates fuel demand conditional on fuel choice, which is characterized by a multinomial logit model. Separate estimation of end uses (e.g., heating, cooking) using the U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey allows for exceptionally detailed estimation of price responsiveness disaggregated by end use and fuel type. We then construct aggregate long-run elasticities, by fuel type, through a series of simulations; own-price elasticities range from -0.9 for district heat services to -2.9 for fuel oil. The simulations form the basis of a marginal cost curve for carbon mitigation, which suggests that a price of $20 per ton of carbon would result in an 8% reduction in commercial carbon emissions, and a price of $100 per ton would result in a 28% reduction. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Discounting the distant future: How much do uncertain rates increase valuations?

We demonstrate that when the future path of the discount rate is uncertain and highly correlated, the distant future should be discounted at significantly lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of US interest rate data to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the "certainty-equivalent rate" that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future. Under the random walk model we find that the certainty-equivalent rate falls continuously from 4% to 2% after 100 years, 1% after 200 years, and 0.5% after 300 years. At horizons of 400 years, the discounted value increases by a factor of over 40,000 relative to conventional discounting. Applied to climate change mitigation, we find that incorporating discount rate uncertainty almost doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits. © 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.