ベトナムのカンボジア侵攻に対するASEANコンセンサス形式と議長国の役割

ASEAN諸国にとって，ベトナムのカンボジア侵攻は1980年代の最大の安全保障上の脅威であった。ASEAN諸国はこの問題にASEANとして何らかの方針を打ち出すべきだという点では一致したものの，その具体化をめぐってベトナムに強硬姿勢で臨むべきとする強硬派とベトナムとの対話を模索する柔軟派で対立していた。強硬派と柔軟派は互いに譲歩して，ベトナムに対するASEANコンセンサスを形成した。本稿では，強硬派，柔軟派がどのような条件で譲歩し，また，その条件はいかにして整うのかについて新たな視点を提示する。 具体的には，譲歩の条件とは，反対意見の表明を控えるに足る説得的な材料が提示されることであり，譲歩の条件を成り立たせる要因とは，利害調整のための協議が継続されることである。本稿では，会議の議事運営を担う議長国がその利害や意向にもとづいて，協議を継続するかどうかを判断する点を指摘する。

Inflation targeting in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines : the impact on business cycle synchronization between each country and the world

This paper empirically analyzes whether and to what extent the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines has affected their business cycle synchronization with the rest of the world. By employing the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model developed by Engle (2002), we find that IT in Asia has little effect on international business cycle synchronization and the effect is positive in some of the countries, if any. These findings basically seem to be consistent with the evidence from relevant literature.

Does the use of multiple FTAs force firms to raise local input share? : evidence of the spaghetti bowl phenomenon

This paper empirically investigates the firm-level relationship between the local input share and the number of used FTAs by employing the data on FTA utilization in Japanese affiliates in ASEAN. As a result, we do not find a robust linear relationship. However, affiliates using a large number of FTAs (seven or eight) have an extremely higher share of local inputs. This result might be interpreted as the first evidence of the “spaghetti bowl phenomenon”.

メコン諸国における人身取引問題にかんする二国間覚書の比較分析 -- 二国間覚書の限界と可能性

2000年国連総会で「パレルモ議定書」が採択され，2010年７月には人身取引に対するグローバル行動計画が採択されるなど，人身取引の撲滅のために国連をはじめとする国際機関，各国政府やNGOによるグローバルな努力が積み重ねられている。メコン６カ国はメコン地域における人身取引対策の重要性を認識し，2004年にCOMMIT という枠組みをつくり，それを活用しながら国内の政策を立案し，域内の二国間協力を推進している。本稿では，メコン地域の人身取引問題において重要な位置を占めるタイとミャンマー，ラオス，カンボジアとの二国間覚書を，越境人身取引問題の構造をなす被害者の送出国と受入国との関係に着目し，比較分析する。犯罪者の訴追・処罰，被害者の保護・送還という人身取引問題の各局面における送出国と受入国の立場の相違から生じる問題点を抽出し，二国間覚書自体の枠組みの限界と可能性を論じる。

How do free trade agreements change import prices? : firm-level evidence from China's imports from ASEAN

The literature has revealed the positive impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on export prices by employing product-level trade data. This paper empirically examines the impacts of FTAs on import prices at the firm level. We focus on firm-level imports in China from ASEAN countries by employing China’s firm-product-level trade data. As a result, controlling for firm characteristics and product characteristics, we could not find significantly positive impacts of an FTA’s entry into force on import prices of FTA eligible products. Instead, we found a significant increase in import quantities of FTA eligible products. Thus, at the firm level, the gains from FTAs for exporters may be the increase in export quantities rather than the rise in export prices.

Chairship system and decision making by consensus in international agreements : the case of ASEAN

How are different positions reconciled under decision making by consensus in international agreements? This article aims to answer this question. Consensus rule provides each participant a veto, which risks resulting in non-agreement. Taking ASEAN as a case study of international organizations that have adopted consensus rule as the main decision-making procedure, this article presents the chairship system as an analytical scheme to examine how different positions are or are not reconciled under consensus rule. The system is based on conventional knowledge regarding the chair in international conference, which can be defined as an institution where the role of the chair is taken by one member state in an international organization and plays a role in agenda-setting. The agenda-setting power given to the chair varies across organizations. This article assumes that the chair in ASEAN is given a relatively strong agenda-setting power to enable the chair to reach agreements and bias such agreements in its own favor.

FTA in international finance : impacts of exchange rates on FTA utilization

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme in trading. Changes in exchange rates affect FTA utilization by two ways. The first way is by changing the excess profits gained by utilizing the FTA scheme, and the second way is by promoting the compliance of rules of origin. Our theoretical models predict that the depreciation of exporters' currency against that of importers enhances the likelihood of FTA utilization through those two channels. Furthermore, our empirical analysis, which is based on rich tariff-line-level data on the utilization of FTA schemes in Korea's imports from ASEAN countries, supports the theoretical prediction. We also show that the effects are smaller for more differentiated products.

「華南銀行」の迷走と変容 -- 金融的「南進」の理想と現実 -- 1919~1945

本稿は，1919 年に日本植民地下の台北で，大正期における南進の理想を金融的に具現化するべく，日本と華僑の合弁によって創設された「華南銀行」の経営を考察する。そこからは大正から昭和において，ほぼ一貫して「南進」という文脈のなかで活動した特徴ある日系金融機関でありながらも，経済環境の悪化だけでなく，設立時からの構造的問題やずさんな経営内容によって長期間の迷走を続け，変容していった様相が浮かび上がる。具体的には，(1) 1919年の創設から数年の拡張期，(2) 経営不調から1924年と1927年に実施された第一次・第二次整理の内容，(3) 1920年代末から南洋邦人事業向け融資に深入りする背景と顛末，(4) 1930年代の第三次整理案が錯綜して迷走を続けたまま1940年代の終焉に向かった姿，などをたどる。

Effects of RoHs and REACH regulations on firm-level production and export, and the role of global value chains : the cases of Malaysia and Vietnam

This paper uses firm-level data to examine the impact of foreign chemical safety regulations such as RoHS and REACH on the production costs and export performance of firms in Malaysia and Vietnam. This paper also investigates the role of global value chains in enhancing the likelihood that a firm complies with RoHS and REACH. We find that in addition to the initial setup costs for compliance, EU RoHS (REACH) implementation imposes on firms additional variable production costs by requiring additional labor and capital expenditures of around 57% (73%) of variable costs. We also find that compliance with RoHS and REACH significantly increases the probability of export and that compliance with EU RoHS and REACH helps firms enter a greater variety of countries. Furthermore, firms participating in global value chains have higher compliance with RoHS and REACH regulations, regardless of whether the firm is directly exporting, when the firm operates in upstream or downstream industries of the countries' supply chain.

Measuring population mobility speed from space

Ad-hoc population dynamics in Krugman’s type core and periphery models adjust population share of a region, based on its real wage rate deviation from national average, at pre-specified speed of population mobility. Whereas speed of population mobility is expected to be different across countries, for geographical, cultural, technological, etc. reasons, one common speed is often applied in theoretical and simulation analysis, due to spatially patchy, and temporally infrequent, availability of sub-national regional data. This article demonstrates how, increasingly available, high definition spatio-temporal remote-sensing data, and their by-products, can be used to measure speed of population mobility in national and sub-national level.

Food quality awareness : cases from shrimp producers in Thailand and vegetable producers in Vietnam

The high number of import rejections of food commodities suggests that producers in exporting countries are not complying with established standards. To understand why this is the case, we explore the behavior of producers and consumers in developing countries. First, we examine the successful transformation of production practices adopted by shrimp producers in Thailand. In support of the dramatic change in practices, we observe an important role played by the public sector in providing a means to visualize chemical residues and to control processes upstream of the supply chain via a registration system and a traceability system called Movement Document. Furthermore, very active information sharing by the private sector contributes to the dissemination of useful technical and market information among producers. We also examine the knowledge and perceptions of consumers with respect to food safety in Vietnam. We find that consumers in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City behave differently toward the third-party certification VietGAP, probably owing to differences in the history of market mechanisms between the two cities.

Dangerous unions : mapping human smuggling and human trafficking in international marriage through Japan's legal response

This working paper explores human smuggling and human trafficking through international marriage. It focuses on Japan's criminal justice response, while examining the major stakeholders involved in this activity. The paper focuses on the time period from 2008-2013. International marriages, particularly commercially brokered arrangements, have rapidly increased throughout East and Southeast Asia, with more women from less developed countries moving to richer destinations. The increasing prevalence of brokered marriages, and the overall numbers of marriage migrants, provides cover for criminal organizations to smuggle labor migrants on false marriages, and to send some migrants into what are clearly human trafficking situations.