The Role of Cell Sterilization in Population Based Studies of Radiogenic Second Cancers Following Radiation Therapy

Advances in radiotherapy have generated increased interest in comparative studies of treatment techniques and their effectiveness. In this respect, pediatric patients are of specific interest because of their sensitivity to radiation induced second cancers. However, due to the rarity of childhood cancers and the long latency of second cancers, large sample sizes are unavailable for the epidemiological study of contemporary radiotherapy treatments. Additionally, when specific treatments are considered, such as proton therapy, sample sizes are further reduced due to the rareness of such treatments. We propose a method to improve statistical power in micro clinical trials. Specifically, we use a more biologically relevant quantity, cancer equivalent dose (DCE), to estimate risk instead of mean absorbed dose (DMA). Our objective was to demonstrate that when DCE is used fewer subjects are needed for clinical trials. Thus, we compared the impact of DCE vs. DMA on sample size in a virtual clinical trial that estimated risk for second cancer (SC) in the thyroid following craniospinal irradiation (CSI) of pediatric patients using protons vs. photons. Dose reconstruction, risk models, and statistical analysis were used to evaluate SC risk from therapeutic and stray radiation from CSI for 18 patients. Absorbed dose was calculated in two ways: with (1) traditional DMA and (2) with DCE. DCE and DMA values were used to estimate relative risk of SC incidence (RRCE and RRMA, respectively) after proton vs. photon CSI. Ratios of RR for proton vs. photon CSI (RRRCE and RRRMA) were then used in comparative estimations of sample size to determine the minimal number of patients needed to maintain 80% statistical power when using DCE vs. DMA. For all patients, we found that protons substantially reduced the risk of developing a second thyroid cancer when compared to photon therapy. Mean RRR values were 0.052±0.014 and 0.087±0.021 for RRRMA and RRRCE, respectively. However, we did not find that use of DCE reduced the number of patents needed for acceptable statistical power (i.e, 80%). In fact, when considerations were made for RRR values that met equipoise requirements and the need for descriptive statistics, the minimum number of patients needed for a micro-clinical trial increased from 17 using DMA to 37 using DCE. Subsequent analyses revealed that for our sample, the most influential factor in determining variations in sample size was the experimental standard deviation of estimates for RRR across the patient sample. Additionally, because the relative uncertainty in dose from proton CSI was so much larger (on the order of 2000 times larger) than the other uncertainty terms, it dominated the uncertainty in RRR. Thus, we found that use of corrections for cell sterilization, in the form of DCE, may be an important and underappreciated consideration in the design of clinical trials and radio-epidemiological studies. In addition, the accurate application of cell sterilization to thyroid dose was sensitive to variations in absorbed dose, especially for proton CSI, which may stem from errors in patient positioning, range calculation, and other aspects of treatment planning and delivery.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

Small quantity but large effect — How minor phases control strain localization in upper mantle shear zones

Low viscosity domains such as localized shear zones exert an important control on the geodynamics of the uppermost mantle. Grain size reduction and subsequent strain localization related to a switch from dislocation to diffusion creep is one mechanism to form low viscosity domains. To sustain strain localization, the grain size of mantle minerals needs to be kept small over geological timescales. One way to keep olivine grain sizes small is by pinning of mobile grain boundaries during grain growth by other minerals (second phases). Detailed microstructural studies based on natural samples from three shear zones formed at different geodynamic settings, allowed the derivation of the olivine grain-size dependence on the second-phase content. The polymineralic olivine grain-size evolution with increasing strain is similar in the three shear zones. If the second phases are to pin the mobile olivine grain boundary the phases need to be well mixed before grain growth. We suggest that melt-rock and metamorphic reactions are crucial for the initial phase mixing in mantle rocks. With ongoing deformation and increasing strain, grain boundary sliding combined with mass transfer processes and nucleation of grains promotes phase mixing resulting in fine-grained polymineralic mixtures that deform by diffusion creep. Strain localization due to the presence of volumetrically minor minerals in polymineralic mantle rocks is only important at high strain deformation (ultramylonites) at low temperatures (<~800°C). At smaller strain and stress conditions and/or higher temperatures other parameters like overall energy available to deform a given rock volume, the inheritance of mechanical anisotropies or the presence of water or melts needs to be considered to explain strain localization in the upper mantle.

Minimum carbon payment along an aridity gradient for dryland afforestation in non annex I countries with stochastic weather and prices

Recent findings demonstrate that trees in deserts are efficient carbon sinks. It remains however unknown whether the Clean Development Mechanism will accelerate the planting of trees in Non Annex I dryland countries. We estimated the price of carbon at which a farmer would be indifferent between his customary activity and the planting of trees to trade carbon credits, along an aridity gradient. Carbon yields were simulated by means of the CO2FIX v3.1 model for Pinus halepensis with its respective yield classes along the gradient (Arid – 100mm to Dry Sub Humid conditions – 900mm). Wheat and pasture yields were predicted on somewhat similar nitrogen-based quadratic models, using 30 years of weather data to simulate moisture stress. Stochastic production, input and output prices were afterwards simulated on a Monte Carlo matrix. Results show that, despite the high levels of carbon uptake, carbon trading by afforesting is unprofitable anywhere along the gradient. Indeed, the price of carbon would have to raise unrealistically high, and the certification costs would have to drop significantly, to make the Clean Development Mechanism worthwhile for non annex I dryland countries farmers. From a government agency's point of view the Clean Development Mechanism is attractive. However, such agencies will find it difficult to demonstrate “additionality”, even if the rule may be somewhat flexible. Based on these findings, we will further discuss why the Clean Development Mechanism, a supposedly pro-poor instrument, fails to assist farmers in Non Annex I dryland countries living at minimum subsistence level.

A consistent combination of GNSS and SLR with minimum constraints

In this article, the realization of a global terrestrial reference system (TRS) based on a consistent combination of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) is studied. Our input data consists of normal equation systems from 17 years (1994– 2010) of homogeneously reprocessed GPS, GLONASS and SLR data. This effort used common state of the art reduction models and the same processing software (Bernese GNSS Software) to ensure the highest consistency when combining GNSS and SLR. Residual surface load deformations are modeled with a spherical harmonic approach. The estimated degree-1 surface load coefficients have a strong annual signal for which the GNSS- and SLR-only solutions show very similar results. A combination including these coefficients reduces systematic uncertainties in comparison to the singletechnique solution. In particular, uncertainties due to solar radiation pressure modeling in the coefficient time series can be reduced up to 50 % in the GNSS+SLR solution compared to the GNSS-only solution. In contrast to the ITRF2008 realization, no local ties are used to combine the different geodetic techniques.We combine the pole coordinates as global ties and apply minimum constraints to define the geodetic datum. We show that a common origin, scale and orientation can be reliably realized from our combination strategy in comparison to the ITRF2008.

Minimum count sums for charcoalconcentration estimates in pollen slides: accuracy and potential errors

Charcoal particles in pollen slides are often abundant, and thus analysts are faced with the problem of setting the minimum counting sum as small as possible in order to save time. We analysed the reliability of charcoal-concentration estimates based on different counting sums, using simulated low-to high-count samples. Bootstrap simulations indicate that the variability of inferred charcoal concentrations increases progressively with decreasing sums. Below 200 items (i.e., the sum of charcoal particles and exotic marker grains), reconstructed fire incidence is either too high or too low. Statistical comparisons show that the means of bootstrap simulations stabilize after 200 counts. Moreover, a count of 200-300 items is sufficient to produce a charcoal-concentration estimate with less than+5% error if compared with high-count samples of 1000 items for charcoal/marker grain ratios 0.1-0.91. If, however, this ratio is extremely high or low (> 0.91 or < 0.1) and if such samples are frequent, we suggest that marker grains are reduced or added prior to new sample processing.

The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe

Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in Central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.

Minimum Quality Standards in Baseball and the Paradoxical Disappearance of the .400 Hitter

This paper argues (following Gould, 2003) that the disappearance of the .400 hitter in major league baseball is due, not to a decrease in ability at the top end of the talent distribution, but to better methods of screening out players at the low end of the distribution. The argument is related to the economic literature on minimum quality standards in markets with imperfect information.

Emissions Control and the Regulation of Product Markets: The Case of Automobiles

The paper investigates alternative policies to regulate emissions from polluting product markets, specifically considering the case of the automobiles market. The two policies we consider are: a quota that limits the quantity produced of the polluting model and a more flexible average efficiency standard that requires a minimum energy efficiency across all models produced by a firm, similar to the US Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. We use a duopoly model of vertical differentiation where firms produce both an economy (i.e., low polluting) version and a luxury (i.e., high polluting) version of a given product. We show that while a quota can raise firm profit over a certain range, CAFE always reduces firm profit relative to the pre-regulation. We also show that while the quota reduces emissions, it is possible that emissions increase under CAFE. The optimal policy choice will depend on the magnitude of unit damages. We show that when unit damages are sufficiently high, the quota policy is more efficient than the average efficiency standard. This suggests that instead of tightening CAFE to limit damages from emissions, policy makers can shift to a quota policy which is both welfare enhancing and more profitable for firms.

Sleep quality and quantity and associated factors among high school students from south Texas

Background. Insufficient and poor quality sleep among adolescents affects not only the cognitive functioning, but overall health of the individual. Existing research suggests that adolescents from varying ethnic groups exhibit differing sleep patterns. However, little research focuses on sleep patterns and associated factors (i.e. tobacco use, mental health indicators) among Hispanic youth. ^ Methods. The study population (n=2,536) included students in grades 9-12 who attended one of the three public high schools along the Texas-Mexico border in 2003. This was a cross sectional study using secondary data collected via a web-based, confidential, self-administered survey. Separate logistic regression models were estimated to identify factors associated with reduced (<9 hours/night) and poor quality sleep on average during weeknights. ^ Results. Of participants, 49.5% reported reduced sleep while 12.8% reported poor quality sleep. Factors significantly (p<0.05) associated with poor quality sleep were: often feeling stressed or anxious (OR=5.49), being born in Mexico (OR=0.65), using a computer/playing video games 15+ hours per week (OR=2.29), working (OR=1.37), being a current smoker (OR=2.16), and being a current alcohol user (OR=1.64). Factors significantly associated with reduced quantity of sleep were: often feeling stressed or anxious (OR=2.74), often having headaches/stomachaches (OR=1.77), being a current marijuana user (OR=1.70), being a current methamphetamine user (OR=4.92), and being a current alcohol user (OR=1.27). ^ Discussion. Previous research suggests that there are several factors that can influence sleep quality and quantity in adolescents. This paper discusses these factors (i.e. work, smoking, alcohol, etc.) found to be associated with poor sleep quality and reduced sleep quantity in the Hispanic adolescent population. A reduced quantity of sleep (81.20% of the participants) and a poor quality of sleep (12.80% of the participants) were also found in high school students from South Texas. ^

Minimum income for healthy living

Objectives: We sought to estimate the costs of implementing the current recommendations for healthy choices for a mother with two young children in Atlanta, Georgia. ^ Methods: Current recommendations for healthy choices promoted by the federal government or other credible source were compiled and operationalized into specific conditions or behaviors. The costs of implementing these choices in Atlanta were estimated by using internet searches of retailers/suppliers, phone interviews, and direct observation. The least expensive option was chosen when options were available. ^ Results: Recommendations for choosing a healthy neighborhood, home, school, child care, food, physical activity, and maintaining healthy relationships as well as access to health care were considered. Total costs for this family of three totaled $38,181. Housing, child care, and health insurance contributed to 78% of the total costs. ^ Conclusions: The minimum income needed to choose healthy choices falls short of current wages, and eligibility levels and benefits for income support. ^