Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Strategic alignment and performance: Brazilian companies in the medical diagnostics sector

A gap has been identified in the literature on the diagnosis and monitoring of the degree of strategic alignment. The main objective of this article is to diagnose and analyze the strategic alignment profile using the alignment diagnostic profile (ADP) tool, which enables organizations to show visually their degree of strategic alignment. The methodological approach adopted is multiple-case studies, which were conducted at five organizations in the medical diagnostics sector. The results indicate that the ADP enables organizations to understand the steps required to improve their level of alignment and to identify and locate gaps and conflicts.

Tax Cost of Investment Projects: the case of ICMS credits

This article discusses the impact on the profitability of firms under Complementary Law 102/2000 (which abrogated the Law 89/96 - Kandir Law) allowing the appropriation of ICMS credits, due to investment in fixed assets goods, at a ratio of 1/48 per month. The paper seeks to demonstrate how this new system - which resulted in the transformation of the ICMS as a value added tax (VAT) consumption-type to an income-type - leads to a loss of approximately 30% of the value of credits to be recovered and the effect it generates on the cost of investment and the profits for small, medium and large firms. From the methodological point of view, it is a descriptive and quantitative research, which proceeded in three stages. Initially, we have obtained estimated value of net sales and volume of investments, based on report Painel de Competitividade prepared by the Federacao das Indtustrias do Estado de Sao Paulo (Fiesp/Serasa). Based on this information, it was possible to obtain estimates of the factors of generation of debits and credits for ICMS, using the model Credit Control of Fixed Assets (CIAP). Finally, we have calculated three indicators: (i) present value of debt recovery/value of credits, (ii) present value of debt recovery / investment value, (iii) present value of debt recovery / sales profitability. We have conclude that the system introduced by Complementary Law 102/2000 implicates great opportunity cost for firms and that legislation should be reviewed from this perspective, aiming to ensure lower costs associated with investment projects.

Forest restoration in an indigenous land considering a forest remnant influence (Avai, Sao Paulo State, Brazil)

The expansion of agricultural and pasture areas over native forest areas has been broadly documented and represents the main cause of deforestation that has occurred for the last decades. Such reality is not different in indigenous lands, and has been considered as an important obstacle for individuals who directly depend upon the appropriate management of natural resources to maintain their traditions. We investigated the seed rain, seed bank and natural regeneration of native woody species within a degraded pasture land in different distances from an adjacent seasonal semideciduous forest fragment to define methodological procedures based on ecological processes that might subsidize forest restoration in an indigenous land. Most seeds and seedlings picked from the seed rain and seed bank belonged to anemochoric and autochoric dispersing shrubby and herbaceous species originated in the pasture land. The woody species regeneration, on the other hand, reached higher levels, in terms of abundance and richness, as the forest fragment became closer. Zoochoric dispersal was predominant among such species and was mainly detected closer to the forest fragment. Several woody species picked in the forest fragment were also found in the pasture land, thus reinforcing their important role in supplying propagules and easing the successional process. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Body composition and quality of life (QoL) of the elderly offered by the ""University Third Age`` (UTA) in Brazil

The investigation of the factors that interfere in the well-being of the elderly and their QoL can provide theoretical and methodological subsidies in structuring actions and policies in the health area, in order to fulfill the needs of that population. In this descriptive transversal study, body composition and QoL of elderly women at the UTA program in Piracicaba (Sao Paulo, Brazil) were verified. The participants were 81 women from UTA, and the general levels of physical activity were evaluated, as well as body weight (BW), height, and bodymass index (BMI). The waist circumference (WC) was measured at the level of the umbilical scar and the body composition by impedance (BIA 310e). QoL was verified by means of WHOQOL-Bref and statistical analysis developed with the SAS program. The decrease of weight, height, BMI, and fat-free mass (FFM) was observed among the several age groups, although with no significant difference. The average levels of the general QoL scores and physical, psychological and environmental domains decreased in higher age groups, but social domains showed the opposite result. This fact can be a particular characteristic of the UTA group, and factors the influence such behavior are yet to be studied. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large-scale ecological restoration of high-diversity tropical forests in SE Brazil

The complex interactions among endangered ecosystems, landowners` interests, and different models of land tenure and use, constitute an important series of challenges for those seeking to maintain and restore biodiversity and augment the flow of ecosystem services. Over the past 10 years, we have developed a data-based approach to address these challenges and to achieve medium and large-scale ecological restoration of riparian areas on private lands in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Given varying motivations for ecological restoration, the location of riparian areas within landholdings, environmental zoning of different riparian areas, and best-practice restoration methods were developed for each situation. A total of 32 ongoing projects, covering 527,982 ha, were evaluated in large sugarcane farms and small mixed farms, and six different restoration techniques have been developed to help upscale the effort. Small mixed farms had higher portions of land requiring protection as riparian areas (13.3%), and lower forest cover of riparian areas (18.3%), than large sugarcane farms (10.0% and 36.9%, respectively for riparian areas and forest cover values). In both types of farms, forest fragments required some degree of restoration. Historical anthropogenic degradation has compromised forest ecosystem structure and functioning, despite their high-diversity of native tree and shrub species. Notably, land use patterns in riparian areas differed markedly. Large sugarcane farms had higher portions of riparian areas occupied by highly mechanized agriculture, abandoned fields, and anthropogenic wet fields created by siltation in water courses. In contrast, in small mixed crop farms, low or non-mechanized agriculture and pasturelands were predominant. Despite these differences, plantations of native tree species covering the entire area was by far the main restoration method needed both by large sugarcane farms (76.0%) and small mixed farms (92.4%), in view of the low resilience of target sites, reduced forest cover, and high fragmentation, all of which limit the potential for autogenic restoration. We propose that plantations should be carried out with a high-diversity of native species in order to create biologically viable restored forests, and to assist long-term biodiversity persistence at the landscape scale. Finally, we propose strategies to integrate the political, socio-economic and methodological aspects needed to upscale restoration efforts in tropical forest regions throughout Latin America and elsewhere. (C) 2010 Elsevier BA/. All rights reserved.

Letters and cities: reading the urban environment with the help of perception theories

When wandering around a city such as Sao Paulo, we are surrounded by letters, numbers and symbols. These elements form part of an environment full of signs in many shapes and sizes that compete for our attention. Our perception of these elements contributes towards our spatial guidance and sense of place. The idea of `reading` the city, or urban environment, was introduced by Kevin Lynch, for whom reading the urban structure follows on from recognizing or identifying its numerous visual elements, not necessarily verbal ones. Beginning with a brief bibliographic review of perception theories, this article combines concepts from environmental psychology with concerns brought up by the fields of information design and epigraphy studies, setting out the basis of a methodological proposal for the study of typography and lettering in the urban environment.

Beauty, Class and Discourse: Issues in Debate

In this text we proceed through a brief review of Naomi Lee`s (2009) article, highlighting her significant contributions to social and cultural psychology. In our dialogue with her text we inquire about some arguments and methodological procedures she presents. We raise some specific questions related to how the issue of beauty is framed, and we ponder on how a broadening of the scope to include history-of ideas, of relations-would bring some important elements to her approach. As Lee relates beauty and class, we examine the nuanced meanings of lack and deficiency in her analytical work. We also discuss her assumptions and position concerning discourse and dialogue which mark her ways of proceeding through the analysis of the interviews. We speculate that the depersonalized answer appointed in the interviewees` discourse can be related to a way of considering beauty as disembodied.

Quality of Reporting of Observational Longitudinal Research

Observational longitudinal research is particularly useful for assessing etiology and prognosis and for providing evidence for clinical decision making. However, there are no structured reporting requirements for studies of this design to assist authors, editors, and readers. The authors developed and tested a checklist of criteria related to threats to the internal and external validity of observational longitudinal studies. The checklist criteria concerned recruitment, data collection, biases, and data analysis and descriptive issues relevant to study rationale, study population, and generalizability. Two raters independently assessed 49 randomly selected articles describing stroke research published from 1999 to 2003 in six journals: American Journal of Epidemiology, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Stroke, Annals of Neurology, Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, and American Journal of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. On average, 17 of the 33 checklist criteria were reported. Criteria describing the study design were better reported than those related to internal validity. No relation was found between study type (etiologic or prognostic) or word count and quality of reporting. A flow diagram for summarizing participant flow through a study was developed. Editors and authors should consider using a checklist and flow diagram when reporting on observational longitudinal research.

[beta]-Hydroxy-F128b-Methylbutyrate (HMB) Supplementation and the Promotion of Muscle Growth and Strength

[beta]-Hydroxy [beta]-methylbutyrate (HMB), a metabolite of the essential amino acid leucine, is one of the latest dietary supplements promoted to enhance gains in strength and lean body mass associated with resistance training. Unlike anabolic hormones that induce muscle hypertrophy by increasing muscle protein synthesis, HMB is claimed to influence strength and lean body mass by acting as an anticatabolic agent, minimising protein breakdown and damage to cells that may occur with intense exercise. Research on HMB has recently tested this hypothesis, under the assumption that it may be the active compound associated with the anticatabolic effects of leucine and its metabolites. While much of the available literature is preliminary in nature and not without methodological concern, there is support for the claims made regarding HMB supplementation, at least in young, previously untrained individuals. A mechanism by which this may occur is unknown, but research undertaken to date suggests there may be a reduction in skeletal muscle damage, although this has not been assessed directly. The response of resistance trained and older individuals to HMB administration is less clear. While the results of research conducted to date appear encouraging, caution must be taken when interpreting outcomes as most manuscripts are presented in abstract form only, not having to withstand the rigors of peer review. Of the literature reviewed relating to HMB administration during resistance training, only 2 papers are full manuscripts appearing in peer reviewed journals. The remaining 8 papers are published as abstracts only, making it difficult to critically review the research. There is clearly a need for more tightly controlled, longer duration studies to verify if HMB enhances strength and muscular hypertrophy development associated with resistance training across a range of groups, including resistance trained individuals.

Deconstructing sport history: The postmodern challenge

The crisis in the historical profession today is both conceptual and political, both methodological and practical. To the crises of the decline of great narrative history for the popular audience, the multiculturalist challenge to Eurocentric history, and the loss of faith in grand themes of progress and liberation that provided moral and political guidance through history’s lessons, must be added the crisis created by the implications of literary and rhetorical theory for the very practice of history itself.

Popper and his Commentators on the Discovery of Neptune: a close shave for the Law of Gravitation?

Knowledge of residual perturbations in the orbit of Uranus in the early 1840s did not lead to the refutation of Newton's law of gravitation but instead to the discovery of Neptune in 1846. Karl Popper asserts that this case is atypical of science and that the law of gravitation was at least prima facie falsified by these perturbations. I argue that these assertions are the product of a false, a priori methodological position I call, 'Weak Popperian Falsificationism' (WPF). Further, on the evidence the law was not prima facie false and was not generally considered so by astronomers at the time. Many of Popper's commentators (Kuhn, Lakatos, Feyerabend and others) presuppose WPF and their views on this case and its implications for scientific rationality and method suffer from this same defect.

Review of Interpersonal adaptation: Dyadic interaction patterns By Judee K. Burgoon, Lesa

In this ambitious book, Burgoon, Stern, and Dillman present the most comprehensive coverage of the literature on interpersonal adaptation that I have seen in recent years. Their mission is to make a critical examination of this whole area from both theoretical and methodological perspectives, and then to present their own synthetic theory (interpersonal adaptation theory, IAT) and research agenda. Such a mission produces very high expectations in readers, and inevitably some readers will feel that the authors do not achieve all of it. Personally, I was impressed by how much they do achieve, and I was intrigued by the questions they did not answer. One can ask no more than this of any single book.