Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Resource management in location aware cognitive radio networks

Dynamic spectrum access (DSA) aims at utilizing spectral opportunities both in time and frequency domains at any given location, which arise due to variations in spectrum usage. Recently, Cognitive radios (CRs) have been proposed as a means of implementing DSA. In this work we focus on the aspect of resource management in overlaid CRNs. We formulate resource allocation strategies for cognitive radio networks (CRNs) as mathematical optimization problems. Specifically, we focus on two key problems in resource management: Sum Rate Maximization and Maximization of Number of Admitted Users. Since both the above mentioned problems are NP hard due to presence of binary assignment variables, we propose novel graph based algorithms to optimally solve these problems. Further, we analyze the impact of location awareness on network performance of CRNs by considering three cases: Full location Aware, Partial location Aware and Non location Aware. Our results clearly show that location awareness has significant impact on performance of overlaid CRNs and leads to increase in spectrum utilization effciency.

Hypervigilance-avoidance pattern in spider phobia

Cognitive-motivational theories of phobias propose that patients' behavior is characterized by a hypervigilance-avoidance pattern. This implies that phobics initially direct their attention towards fear-relevant stimuli, followed by avoidance that is thought to prevent objective evaluation and habituation. However, previous experiments with highly anxious individuals confirmed initial hypervigilance and yet failed to show subsequent avoidance. In the present study, we administered a visual task in spider phobics and controls, requiring participants to search for spiders. Analyzing eye movements during visual exploration allowed the examination of spatial as well as temporal aspects of phobic behavior. Confirming the hypervigilance-avoidance hypothesis as a whole, our results showed that, relative to controls, phobics detected spiders faster, fixated closer to spiders during the initial search phase and fixated further from spiders subsequently.

A cognitive analysis of English cognate objects

In this paper, from the perspective of Cognitive Grammar, we consider the question of what kind of verbs can take cognate objects (COs) and what kind of verbs cannot. We investigate the syntactic properties of COs, such as the ability to take modifiers, the passivizability of cognate object constructions (COCs), and the it-pronominalization of COs. It is our contention that a detailed classification of verbs that occur in COCs is required in order to capture the relation between the syntactic properties and the modification of COs. While classifying verbs, we focus on three conceptual factors: the force of energy of the subject, a change of state of the subject, and the objectivity of the cognate noun. The study reveals that these three parameters enable us to capture the difference in the interpretation of COs in relation to modification and syntactic tests.

The construal of constructions: causal and temporal interpretations in change constructions

In this paper I first discuss some non-causal change constructions which have largely gone unnoticed in the literature, such as The butler bowed the guests in (which is said to code mild causation) and The supporters booed Newcastle off at the interval (which only codes temporal coextension between its two constitutive subevents). Since the same structure (i.e. the transitive object-oriented change construction) can be used to code a wide spectrum of causal and temporal relations, the question arises of what cognitive mechanisms may be involved in such meaning shifts. I argue that variation can be motivated on the basis of the figure/ground segregation which the conceptualiser can impose upon the integrated scene coded by the change construction. The integrated scene depicts a force-dynamic scenario but also evokes a unique temporal setting (i.e. temporal overlap or coextension between the constitutive subevents). Such a “bias” towards temporal overlap can be used by the conceptualiser to background causation and highlight temporal overlap interpretations. It is also shown that figure/ground segregation can be appealed to to account for the causal interpretation of intransitive change constructions, e.g. The kettle boiled dry. If the conceptual distance between the verbal event and the non-verbal event is (relatively) great, causality can be highlighted even in intransitive patterns.

Review of "Lingua e diritto. Livelli di analisi"

The book Lingua e diritto: Livelli di analisi brings together contributions by scholars from different fields: anthropology, theory and philosophy of law, comparative law, European law, translation, discourse analysis, pragmatics, morpho-syntax and cognitive linguistics. Contributions deal with a number of issues situated at the interface between language and law: questions of meaning and the interpretation of legal texts, the nature of legal interpretation, problems of ambiguity and vagueness in legal texts, the characteristics of legal language, legal terminology and the multilingualism of European law. As a whole, the book provides insights into a number of different topics and perspectives situated at the interface between language and law. It is of interest both to lawyers and linguists as a valuable and very welcome contribution to the field of legal linguistics.

Information Integration Theory and the Construction of Individually Perceived Group Efficacy

According to Bandura (1997) efficacy beliefs are a primary determinant of motivation. Still, very little is known about the processes through which people integrate situational factors to form efficacy beliefs (Myers & Feltz, 2007). The aim of this study was to gain insight into the cognitive construction of subjective group-efficacy beliefs. Only with a sound understanding of those processes is there a sufficient base to derive psychological interventions aimed at group-efficacy beliefs. According to cognitive theories (e.g., Miller, Galanter, & Pribram, 1973) individual group-efficacy beliefs can be seen as the result of a comparison between the demands of a group task and the resources of the performing group. At the center of this comparison are internally represented structures of the group task and plans to perform it. The empirical plausibility of this notion was tested using functional measurement theory (Anderson, 1981). Twenty-three students (M = 23.30 years; SD = 3.39; 35 % females) of the University of Bern repeatedly judged the efficacy of groups in different group tasks. The groups consisted of the subjects and another one to two fictive group members. The latter were manipulated by their value (low, medium, high) in task-relevant abilities. Data obtained from multiple full factorial designs were structured with individuals as second level units and analyzed using mixed linear models. The task-relevant abilities of group members, specified as fixed factors, all had highly significant effects on subjects’ group-efficacy judgments. The effect sizes of the ability factors showed to be dependent on the respective abilities’ importance in a given task. In additive tasks (Steiner, 1972) group resources were integrated in a linear fashion whereas significant interaction between factors was obtained in interdependent tasks. The results also showed that people take into account other group members’ efficacy beliefs when forming their own group-efficacy beliefs. The results support the notion that personal group-efficacy beliefs are obtained by comparing the demands of a task with the performing groups’ resources. Psychological factors such as other team members’ efficacy beliefs are thereby being considered task relevant resources and affect subjective group-efficacy beliefs. This latter finding underlines the adequacy of multidimensional measures. While the validity of collective efficacy measures is usually estimated by how well they predict performances, the results of this study allow for a somewhat internal validity criterion. It is concluded that Information Integration Theory holds potential to further help understand people’s cognitive functioning in sport relevant situations.

The Function of Norms and Values in the Construction of Social Identity in Groups who experienced intergroup Conflicts

I present my explorative research about conflict and social identity. The Social Identity Approach of Henri Tajfel and John Turner is used as theoretical frame in the study. The main question is how the construction of social identity of group members is influenced by an inter-group conflict. The research project consists of two parts: 1. An empirical study conducted with qualitative research methods to investigate a today’s congregation of the Swiss reformed Church who experienced a conflict about twenty years ago. This conflict ended by the separation of a sub-group from the congregations. This group forms an independent community today. Members of both congregations where interviewed about the meaning which membership has for them and about their interpretation of the conflict. 2. An analysis of the Gospel of Matthew with questions who where developed out of the empirical study and the Social Identity Approach to better understand the separation conflict between the Matthean community and the synagogue.

Generalized resistance resources of informal caregivers: A study of demands for care, competing demands, perception of burden and cognitive stress

This study examines the relationship among psychological resources (generalized resistance resources), care demands (demands for care, competing demands, perception of burden) and cognitive stress in a selected population of primary family caregivers. The study utilizes Antonovsky's Salutogenic Model of Health, specifically the concept of generalized resistance resources (GRRs), to analyze the relative effect of these resources on mediating cognitive stress, controlling for other care demands. The study is based on a sample of 784 eligible caregivers who (1) were relatives, (2) had the main responsibility for care, defined as a primary caregiver, and (3) provided a scaled stress score for the amount of overall care given to the care recipient (family member). The sample was drawn from the 1982 National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS) of individuals who assisted a given NLTCS sample person with ADL limitations.^ The study tests the following hypotheses: (a) There will be a negative relationship between generalized resistance resources (GRRs) and cognitive stress controlling for care demands (demands for care, competing demands, and perceptions of burden); (b) of the specific GRRs (material, cognitive, social, cultural-environmental) the social domain will represent the most significant factor predicting a decrease in cognitive stress; and (c) the social domain will be more significant for the female than the male primary family caregiver in decreasing cognitive stress.^ The study found that GRRs had a statistically significant mediating effect on cognitive stress, but the GRRs were a less significant predictor of stress than perception of burden and demands for care. Thus, although the analysis supported the underlying hypothesis, the specific hypothesis regarding GRRs' greater significance in buffering cognitive stress was not supported. Second, the results did not demonstrate the statistical significance or differences among the GRR domains. The hypothesis that the social GRR domain was most significant in mediating stress of family caregivers was not supported. Finally, the results confirmed that there are differences in the importance of social support help in mediating stress based on gender. It was found that gender and social support help were related to cognitive stress and gender had a statistically significant interaction effect with social support help. Implications for clinical practice, public health policy, and research are discussed. ^

Race and discourse analysis: Building a dialogue in health service research and health care settings

Using a framework for discourse analysis developed by Van Dijk, the investigator will pinpoint the pathological forms of discourse on race, defined as 'race talk' in three professional domains: health services research, public health provider organizations, and literature on multiculturalism. Attention will then turn to developing an analytical strategy for building more meaningful dialogue on race. The retrieval of potential resources for dialogue will be drawn from the third domain. Analysis will focus on enhancing the prospects of converting 'race talk' into dialogue. This will be accomplished by characterizing the normative preconditions as formal procedural requirements for dialogue and then supplementing these conditions with others related specifically to race. From here, the practical implications of combining procedural requirements and resources in each of the domains will be considered. Finally, the author will attempt to determine how these selected resources might be employed to transform 'race talk' in practice and lay the groundwork for a dialogue of understanding. ^

Effectiveness of integrated cognitive remediartion therapy for schizophrenia outpatients: Early versus long-term course of illness – results from an international RCT

Background Nowadays there is extensive evidence available showing the efficacy of cognitive remediation therapies. Integrative approaches seem superior regarding the maintenance of proximal outcome at follow-up as well as generalization to other areas of functioning. To date, only limited evidence about the efficacy of CRT is available concerning elder schizophrenia patients. The Integrated Neurocognitive Therapy (INT) represents a new developed cognitive remediation approach. It is a manualized group therapy approach targeting all 11 NIMH-MATRICS dimensions within one therapy concept. In this study we compared the effects of INT on an early course group (duration of disease<5 years) to a long-term group of schizophrenia outpatients (duration of disease>15 years). Methods An international multicenter study carried out in Germany, Switzerland and Austria with a total of 90 outpatients diagnosed with Schizophrenia (DSM-IV-TR) were randomly assigned either to an INT-Therapy or to Treatment-As-Usual (TAU). 50 of the 90 Patients were an Early-Course (EC) group, suffering from schizophrenia for less than 5 years (Mean age=29 years, Mean duration of illness=3.3 years). The other 40 were a Long-term Course (LC) group, suffering from schizophrenia longer than 15 years (Mean age= 45 years, Mean duration of illness=22 years). Treatment comprised of 15 biweekly sessions. An extensive assessment battery was conducted before and after treatment and at follow up (1 year). Multivariate General Linear Models (GLM) (duration of illness x treatment x time) examined our hypothesis, if an EC group of schizophrenia outpatients differ in proximal and distal outcome from a LC group. Results Irrespective of the duration of illness, both groups (EC & LC) were able to benefit from the INT. INT was superior compared to TAU in most of the assessed domains. Dropout rate of EC group was much higher (21.4%) than LC group (8%) during therapy phase. However, interaction effects show that the LC group revealed significantly higher effects in the neurocognitive domains of speed of processing (F>3.6) and vigilance (F>2.4). In social cognition the EC group showed significantly higher effects in social schema (F>2.5) and social attribution (blame; F>6.0) compared to the LC group. Regarding more distal outcome, patients treated with INT obtained reduced general symptoms unaffected by the duration of illness during therapy phase and at follow-up (F>4.3). Discussion Results suggest that INT is a valid goal-oriented treatment to improve cognitive functions in schizophrenia outpatients. Irrespective of the duration of illness significant treatment, effects were evident. Against common expectations, long-term, more chronic patients showed higher effects in basal cognitive functions compared to younger patients and patients without any active therapy (TAU). Consequently, more integrated therapy offers are also recommended for long-term course schizophrenia patients.

Construction and first validation of the comprehensive inventory of mindfulness (CHIME)

Introduction: Measuring trait mindfulness and change in mindfulness may be a crucial prerequisite for the evaluation and further development of mindfulness based interventions for the treatment of mental disorders. This endeavour is nontrivial as current measures cover varying aspects and mindfulness and may have problems regarding validity. This presentation describes the development and validation of a questionnaire for the comprehensive assessment of mindfulness: the Comprehensive Inventory of Mindfulness Experiences (CHIME). Method: The factor structure, reliability, and validity of the CHIME were established in a community sample (N = 298) and a sample of MBSR group participants (N = 161). Results: Factor-analytical procedures supported an eight-factor structure. The structure was tested in a further confirmatory sample (N = 202). The questionnaire and its subscales exhibited good reliability (internal consistency and retest-reliability). Analysis of the measurement invariance of the single items over groups differing in age, gender, meditation experience, and symptom load pointed to the absence of systematic differences in the items' semantic understanding. Parameters reflecting construct validity, criterion validity, and incremental validity as well as change sensitivity were all at least satisfactory. Conclusions: The CHIME is a self-report measure with favorable psychometric properties based on all aspects of mindfulness that are included in current mindfulness scales. This scale may be helpful in the evaluation and further development of mindfulness based interventions.

Social Salience and the Sociolinguistic Monitor: a Case Study of ING and TH-fronting in Britain

This article examines the role of social salience, or the relative ability of a linguistic variable to evoke social meaning, in structuring listeners’ perceptions of quantitative sociolinguistic distributions. Building on the foundational work of Labov et al. (2006, 2011) on the “sociolinguistic monitor” (a proposed cognitive mechanism responsible for sociolinguistic perception), we examine whether listeners’ evaluative judgments of speech change as a function of the type of variable presented. We consider two variables in British English, ING and TH-fronting, which we argue differ in their relative social salience. Replicating the design of Labov et al.’s studies, we test 149 British listeners’ reactions to different quantitative distributions of these variables. Our experiments elicit a very different pattern of perceptual responses than those reported previously. In particular, our results suggest that a variable’s social salience determines both whether and how it is perceptually evaluated. We argue that this finding is crucial for understanding how sociolinguistic information is cognitively processed.

Early co-occurrence of a neurologic-psychiatric disease pattern in Niemann-Pick type C disease: a retrospective Swiss cohort study

BackgroundNiemann-Pick disease type C (NP-C) is a rare autosomal recessive disorder of lysosomal cholesterol transport. The objective of this retrospective cohort study was to critically analyze the onset and time course of symptoms, and the clinical diagnostic work-up in the Swiss NP-C cohort.MethodsClinical, biochemical and genetic data were assessed for 14 patients derived from 9 families diagnosed with NP-C between 1994 and 2013. We retrospectively evaluated diagnostic delays and period prevalence rates for neurological, psychiatric and visceral symptoms associated with NP-C disease. The NP-C suspicion index was calculated for the time of neurological disease onset and the time of diagnosis.ResultsThe shortest median diagnostic delay was noted for vertical supranuclear gaze palsy (2y). Ataxia, dysarthria, dysphagia, spasticity, cataplexy, seizures and cognitive decline displayed similar median diagnostic delays (4¿5y). The longest median diagnostic delay was associated with hepatosplenomegaly (15y). Highest period prevalence rates were noted for ataxia, dysarthria, vertical supranuclear gaze palsy and cognitive decline. The NP-C suspicion index revealed a median score of 81 points in nine patients at the time of neurological disease onset which is highly suspicious for NP-C disease. At the time of diagnosis, the score increased to 206 points.ConclusionA neurologic-psychiatric disease pattern represents the most characteristic clinical manifestation of NP-C and occurs early in the disease course. Visceral manifestation such as isolated hepatosplenomegaly often fails recognition and thus highlights the importance of a work-up for lysosomal storage disorders. The NP-C suspicion index emphasizes the importance of a multisystem evaluation, but seems to be weak in monosymptomatic and infantile NP-C patients.