A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

A demonstration of artificial dissipation effects in some finite volume solution methods for the Navier-Stokes equations

The artificial dissipation effects in some solutions obtained with a Navier-Stokes flow solver are demonstrated. The solvers were used to calculate the flow of an artificially dissipative fluid, which is a fluid having dissipative properties which arise entirely from the solution method itself. This was done by setting the viscosity and heat conduction coefficients in the Navier-Stokes solvers to zero everywhere inside the flow, while at the same time applying the usual no-slip and thermal conducting boundary conditions at solid boundaries. An artificially dissipative flow solution is found where the dissipation depends entirely on the solver itself. If the difference between the solutions obtained with the viscosity and thermal conductivity set to zero and their correct values is small, it is clear that the artificial dissipation is dominating and the solutions are unreliable.

A shift from passive teaching at medical conferences to more interactive methods improves physician learning

Conferences that deliver interactive sessions designed to enhance physician participation, such as role play, small discussion groups, workshops, hands-on training, problem- or case-based learning and individualised training sessions, are effective for physician education.

Appropriate surveying methods in the Philippines: Can modern GPS units help?

An investigation was undertaken to test the effectiveness of two procedures for recording boundaries and plot positions for scientific studies on farms on Leyte Island, the Philippines. The accuracy of a Garmin 76 Global Positioning System (GPS) unit and a compass and chain was checked under the same conditions. Tree canopies interfered with the ability of the satellite signal to reach the GPS and therefore the GPS survey was less accurate than the compass and chain survey. Where a high degree of accuracy is required, a compass and chain survey remains the most effective method of surveying land underneath tree canopies, providing operator error is minimised. For a large number of surveys and thus large amounts of data, a GPS is more appropriate than a compass and chain survey because data are easily up-loaded into a Geographic Information System (GIS). However, under dense canopies where satellite signals cannot reach the GPS, it may be necessary to revert to a compass survey or a combination of both methods.

Analysis of heat transfer and entropy generation for a thermally developing Brinkman–Brinkman forced convection problem in a rectangular duct with isoflux walls

Heat transfer and entropy generation analysis of the thermally developing forced convection in a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section, with walls maintained at a constant and uniform heat flux, is investigated based on the Brinkman flow model. The classical Galerkin method is used to obtain the fully developed velocity distribution. To solve the thermal energy equation, with the effects of viscous dissipation being included, the Extended Weighted Residuals Method (EWRM) is applied. The local (three dimensional) temperature field is solved by utilizing the Green’s function solution based on the EWRM where symbolic algebra is being used for convenience in presentation. Following the computation of the temperature field, expressions are presented for the local Nusselt number and the bulk temperature as a function of the dimensionless longitudinal coordinate, the aspect ratio, the Darcy number, the viscosity ratio, and the Brinkman number. With the velocity and temperature field being determined, the Second Law (of Thermodynamics) aspect of the problem is also investigated. Approximate closed form solutions are also presented for two limiting cases of MDa values. It is observed that decreasing the aspect ratio and MDa values increases the entropy generation rate.

The 1.1 angstrom resolution crystal structure of [Tyr(15)]EpI, a novel alpha-conotoxin from Conus episcopatus, solved by direct methods

Conotoxins are valuable probes of receptors and ion channels because of their small size and highly selective activity. alpha-Conotoxin EpI, a 16-residue peptide from the mollusk-hunting Conus episcopatus, has the amino acid sequence GCCSDPRCNMNNPDY(SO3H)C-NH2 and appears to be an extremely potent and selective inhibitor of the alpha 3 beta 2 and alpha 3 beta 4 neuronal subtypes of the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR). The desulfated form of EpI ([Tyr(15)]EpI) has a potency and selectivity for the nAChR receptor similar to those of EpI. Here we describe the crystal structure of [Tyr(15)]EpI solved at a resolution of 1.1 Angstrom using SnB. The asymmetric unit has a total of 284 non-hydrogen atoms, making this one of the largest structures solved de novo try direct methods. The [Tyr(15)]EpI structure brings to six the number of alpha-conotoxin structures that have been determined to date. Four of these, [Tyr(15)]EpI, PnIA, PnIB, and MII, have an alpha 4/7 cysteine framework and are selective for the neuronal subtype of the nAChR. The structure of [Tyr(15)]EpI has the same backbone fold as the other alpha 4/7-conotoxin structures, supporting the notion that this conotoxin cysteine framework and spacing give rise to a conserved fold. The surface charge distribution of [Tyr(15)]EpI is similar to that of PnIA and PnIB but is likely to be different from that of MII, suggesting that [Tyr(15)]EpI and MII may have different binding modes for the same receptor subtype.

Apparent insensitivity of the hotplate latency test for detection of antinociception following intraperitoneal, intravenous or intracerebroventricular M6G administration to rats

Although morphine-6-glucuronide (M6G) has been shown to be analgesically active, the relative involvement of spinal and supraspinal structures in mediating M6G's pain-relieving effects following central and systemic administration to rats is unclear. As the tail flick and hotplate latency tests are reported to quantify antinociception mediated primarily by spinal and supraspinal mechanisms respectively, these methods were used to determine the comparative apparent levels of antinociception (expressed as percentage maximum possible effect, % MPE) achieved after M6G or morphine administration. Following i.v. or i.p. M6G (1.9-5.4 mu mol) dosing or i.p. morphine (10 mu mol) dosing, high levels of antinociception (>50% MPE) were achieved using the tail flick test whereas base-line levels of antinociception were observed 30 sec later in the same rats using the hotplate test. By contrast, antinociception evoked by i.v. morphine (10 mu mol) exceeded 50% MPE using both the hotplate and tail flick tests although the apparent potency was approximately 2.5 times greater using the tail flick test. After i.c.v. dosing, M6G (0.22-3.3 nmol) was significantly (P < .05) more potent when assessed using the tail flick compared with the hotplate test. Taken together, these data strongly indicate that following central and systemic administration, M6G's antinociceptive effects are mediated primarily by spinal structures whereas both spinal and supraspinal mechanisms contribute to systemic morphine's antinociceptive effects.

Investigations into effective methods for assessing the condition of insulation in aged power transformers

This paper investigates the effective diagnostic technique(s) for assessing the condition of insulation in aged power transformers. A number of electrical, mechanical and chemical techniques were investigated. Many of these techniques are already used by the utility engineers and two comparatively new techniques are proposed in this paper. Results showing the effectiveness of these diagnostics are presented and correlation between the techniques are also presented. Finally, merits and suitability of different techniques are discussed in this paper.

Analysis of small signal stability margins using genetic optimization

Power system small signal stability analysis aims to explore different small signal stability conditions and controls, namely: (1) exploring the power system security domains and boundaries in the space of power system parameters of interest, including load flow feasibility, saddle node and Hopf bifurcation ones; (2) finding the maximum and minimum damping conditions; and (3) determining control actions to provide and increase small signal stability. These problems are presented in this paper as different modifications of a general optimization to a minimum/maximum, depending on the initial guesses of variables and numerical methods used. In the considered problems, all the extreme points are of interest. Additionally, there are difficulties with finding the derivatives of the objective functions with respect to parameters. Numerical computations of derivatives in traditional optimization procedures are time consuming. In this paper, we propose a new black-box genetic optimization technique for comprehensive small signal stability analysis, which can effectively cope with highly nonlinear objective functions with multiple minima and maxima, and derivatives that can not be expressed analytically. The optimization result can then be used to provide such important information such as system optimal control decision making, assessment of the maximum network's transmission capacity, etc. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part II: Simulation of alternative farming methods

A version of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) capable of simulating the key agronomic aspects of intercropping maize between legume shrub hedgerows was described and parameterised in the first paper of this series (Nelson et al., this issue). In this paper, APSIM is used to simulate maize yields and soil erosion from traditional open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. Two variants of open-field farming were simulated using APSIM, continuous and fallow, for comparison with intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows. Continuous open-field maize farming was predicted to be unsustainable in the long term, while fallow open-field farming was predicted to slow productivity decline by spreading the effect of erosion over a larger cropping area. Hedgerow intercropping was predicted to reduce erosion by maintaining soil surface cover during periods of intense rainfall, contributing to sustainable production of maize in the long term. In the third paper in this series, Nelson et al. (this issue) use cost-benefit analysis to compare the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to traditional open-field farming of maize in relatively inaccessible upland areas. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part III: Economic analysis of alternative farming methods

Two previous papers in this series (Nelson et al., this issue) described the use of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) to simulate the effect of erosion on maize yields from open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. In this paper, maize yields simulated with APSIM are used to compare the economic viability of intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows with that of continuous and fallow open-field farming of maize. The analysis focuses on the economic incentives of upland farmers to adopt hedgerow intercropping, discussing farmers' planning horizons, access to credit and security of land tenure, as well as maize pricing in the Philippines. Insecure land tenure has limited the planning horizons of upland farmers, and high establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to continuous and fallow open-field farming in the short term, In the long term, high discount rates and share-tenancy arrangements in which landlords do not contribute to establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to fallow open-field farming, (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

New techniques in nutritional assessment: body composition methods

New techniques in air-displacement plethysmography seem to have overcome many of the previous problems of poor reproducibility and validity. These have made body-density measurements available to a larger range of individuals, including children, elderly and sick patients who often have difficulties in being submerged underwater in hydrodensitometry systems. The BOD POD air-displacement system (BOD POD body composition system; Life Measurement Instruments, Concord, CA, USA) is more precise than hydrodensitometry, is simple and rapid to operate (approximately 1 min measurements) and the results agree closely with those of hydrodensitometry (e.g. +/-3.4% for estimation of body fat). Body line scanners employing the principles of three-dimensional photography are potentially able to measure the surface area and volume of the body and its segments even more rapidly (approximately 10 s), but the validity of the measurements needs to be established. Advances in i.r. spectroscopy and mathematical modelling for calculating the area under the curve have improved precision for measuring enrichment of (H2O)-H-2 in studies of water dilution (CV 0.1-0.9% within the range of 400-1000 mu l/l) in saliva, plasma and urine. The technique is rapid and compares closely with mass spectrometry (bias 1 (SD 2) %). Advances in bedside bioelectrical-impedance techniques are making possible potential measurements of skinfold thicknesses and limb muscle mass electronically. Preliminary results suggest that the electronic method is more reproducible (intra-and inter-individual reproducibility for measuring skinfold thicknesses) and associated with less bias (+ 12%), than anthropometry (+ 40%). In addition to these selected examples, the 'mobility' or transfer of reference methods between centres has made the distinction between reference and bedside or field techniques less distinct than in the past.