The innovation deficit in public services : the curious problem of too much efficiency and not enough waste and failure

It has long been recognised that government and public sector services suffer an innovation deficit compared to private or market-based services. This paper argues that this can be explained as an unintended consequence of the concerted public sector drive toward the elimination of waste through efficiency, accountability and transparency. Yet in an evolving economy this can be a false efficiency, as it also eliminates the 'good waste' that is a necessary cost of experimentation. This results in a systematic trade0off in the public sector between the static efficiency of minimizing the misuse of public resources and the dynamic efficiency of experimentation. this is inherently biased against risk and uncertainty and therein, explains why governments find service innovation so difficult. In the drive to eliminate static inefficiencies, many political systems have susequently overshot and stifled policy innovation. I propose the 'Red Queen' solution of adaptive economic policy.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

A comparative social network analysis of wasp colonies and classrooms: Linking network structure to functioning

A major question in current network science is how to understand the relationship between structure and functioning of real networks. Here we present a comparative network analysis of 48 wasp and 36 human social networks. We have compared the centralisation and small world character of these interaction networks and have studied how these properties change over time. We compared the interaction networks of (1) two congeneric wasp species (Ropalidia marginata and Ropalidia cyathiformis), (2) the queen-right (with the queen) and queen-less (without the queen) networks of wasps, (3) the four network types obtained by combining (1) and (2) above, and (4) wasp networks with the social networks of children in 36 classrooms. We have found perfect (100%) centralisation in a queen-less wasp colony and nearly perfect centralisation in several other queen-less wasp colonies. Note that the perfectly centralised interaction network is quite unique in the literature of real-world networks. Differences between the interaction networks of the two wasp species are smaller than differences between the networks describing their different colony conditions. Also, the differences between different colony conditions are larger than the differences between wasp and children networks. For example, the structure of queen-right R. marginata colonies is more similar to children social networks than to that of their queen-less colonies. We conclude that network architecture depends more on the functioning of the particular community than on taxonomic differences (either between two wasp species or between wasps and humans).

Conceptualization of a Behavior Modification Tool for University Systems and Doctoral Students

This paper describes a university based system relevant to doctoral students who have problems with themselves, their peers and research supervisors. Doctoral students have various challenges to solve and these challenges contribute to delays in their thesis submission. This tool aims at helping them think through their problem in a pre-counseling stage. The tool uses narratives and hypothetical stories to walk a doctoral student through options of responses he or she can make given the situation in the narrative. Narratives were developed after a preliminary survey (n=57) of doctoral students. The survey indicated that problems they experienced were: busy supervisors, negative competition from peers and laziness with self. The narrative scenarios in the tool prompt self-reflection and provide for options to chose from leading to the next scenario that will ensue. The different stages of the stimulus-response cycles are designed based on Thomas-Kilmann conflict resolution techniques (collaboration and avoidance). Each stimulus-response cycle has a score attached that reflects the student's ability to judge a collaborative approach. At the end of all the stages a scorecard is generated indicating either a progressive or regressive outcome of thesis submission.

Public evaluations of novel food technologies: a qualitative citizen-scientist deliberative discourse approach

This qualitative research expands understanding of how information about a range of Novel Food Technologies (NFTs) is used and assimilated, and the implications of this on the evolution of attitudes and acceptance. This work enhances theoretical and applied understanding of citizens’ evaluative processes around these technologies. The approach applied involved observations of interactive exchanges between citizens and information providers (i.e. food scientists), during which they discussed a specific technology. This flexible, yet structured, approach revealed how individuals construct meaning around information about specific NFTs. A rich dataset of 42 ‘deliberate discourse’ and 42 postdiscourse transcripts was collected. Data analysis encompassed three stages: an initial descriptive account of the complete dataset based on the top-down bottom-up (TDBU) model of attitude formation, followed by inductive and deductive thematic analysis across the selected technology groups. The hybrid thematic analysis undertaken identified a Conceptual Model, which represents a holistic perspective on the influences and associated features directing ‘sense-making’ and ultimate evaluations around the technology clusters. How individuals make sense of these technologies is shaped by: their beliefs, values and personal characteristics; their perceptions of power and control over the application of the technology; and, the assumed relevance of the technology and its applications within different contexts. These influences form the frame for the creation of sense-making around the technologies. Internal negotiations between these influences are evident and evaluations are based on the relative importance of each influence to the individual, which tend to contribute to attitude ambivalence and instability. The findings indicate the processes of forming and changing attitudes towards these technologies are: complex; dependent on characteristics of the individual, technology, application and product; and, impacted by the nature and forms of information provided. Challenges are faced in engaging with the public about these technologies, as levels of knowledge, understanding and interest vary.

Transnational Fantômas: The Influence of Feuillade’s Series on International Cinema during the 1910s

The influence of Fantômas novels and films on global popular culture is widely acknowledged. From the 1915 Spanish musical "Cine-fantomas" to the 1960s Italian comic book series "Diabolik," "Kriminal" and "Satanik," from Turkish B-movies such as "Fantoma Istanbulda Bulusalim" (dir. Natuk Baytan, 1967) to Julio Cortazar’s anti-imperialist pamphlet "Fantômas contra los vampiros multinacionales" (1975), Pierre Souvestre and Marcel Allain’s original literary series have engendered uncountable translations, adaptations, imitations and plagiarisms that have spread the character’s fame worldwide since its first appearance in 1911.
By focusing on the influence of Louis Feuillade’s film adaptations during the first decade of Fantômas’ long history as a transnational and transmedia icon, this paper aims to contribute to the growing interdisciplinary field that deals with the history of the supranational cultural sphere created by modern media culture. As a sort of archaeology of contemporary cultural globalization, this form of study intends to enrich previous historical surveys that had only taken into consideration specific national contexts. Moreover, it might also rebalance certain “colonizing” accounts that overemphasize the role of the cultural superpowers such as France, the UK or the US, often forgetting the appropriation of the products of international popular culture to be found in other countries. Therefore, this paper examines the transnational circulation of Fantômas films and, in particular, the creative processes engendered outside of France their origin country. As a controversial character and a central player in the relationship between cinema and literature in the crucial years when the feature and serial film boosted and legitimized the film industry, Fantômas represents an exemplary case study to discuss the cross-cultural and cross-media dynamics engendered by popular fiction.

Letter to Henry Nelles from Michael Harris of the Perth Military Settlement

Letter to Henry Nelles from Michael Harris of the Perth Military Settlement (3 pages, handwritten). He is married to Mary Fanning, sister of Henry Nelles but is having marital troubles as he says he “may have to be on the lookout for another wife”. He thinks that his wife Mary may have departed for the United States, Apr. 6, 1821.

The loss of Normandy and the invention of Terre Normannorum, 1204

The conquest of Normandy by Philip Augustus of France effectively ended the ‘Anglo-Norman’ realm created in 1066, forcing cross-Channel landholders to choose between their English and their Norman estates. The best source for the resulting tenurial upheaval in England is the Rotulus de valore terrarum Normannorum, a list of seized properties and their former holders, and this article seeks to expand our understanding of the impact of the loss of Normandy through a detailed analysis of this document. First, it demonstrates that the compilation of the roll can be divided into two distinct stages, the first containing valuations taken before royal justices in June 1204 and enrolled before the end of July, and the second consisting of returns to orders for the valuation of particular properties issued during the summer and autumn, as part of the process by which these estates were committed to new holders. Second, study of the roll and other documentary sources permits a better understanding of the order for the seizure of the lands of those who had remained in Normandy, the text of which does not survive. This establishes that this royal order was issued in late May 1204 and, further, that it enjoined the temporary seizure rather than the permanent confiscation of these lands. Moreover, the seizure was not retrospective and covers a specific window of time in 1204. On the one hand, this means that the roll is far from a comprehensive record of terre Normannorum. On the other hand, it is possible to correlate the identities of those Anglo-Norman landholders whose English estates were seized with the military progress of the French king through the duchy in May and June and thus shed new light on the campaign of 1204. Third, the article considers the initial management of the seized estates and highlights the fact that, when making arrangements for the these lands, John was primarily concerned to maintain his freedom of manoeuvre, since he was not prepared to accept that Normandy had been lost for good.

Patterns of nucleotide substitution in angiosperm cpDNA trnL (UAA)-trnF (GAA) regions

Patterns of substitution in chloroplast encoded trnL_F regions were compared between species of Actaea (Ranunculales), Digitalis (Scrophulariales), Drosera (Caryophyllales), Panicoideae (Poales), the small chromosome species clade of Pelargonium (Geraniales), each representing a different order of flowering plants, and Huperzia (Lycopodiales). In total, the study included 265 taxa, each with > 900-bp sequences, totaling 0.24 Mb. Both pairwise and phylogeny-based comparisons were used to assess nucleotide substitution patterns. In all six groups, we found that transition/transversion ratios, as estimated by maximum likelihood on most-parsimonious trees, ranged between 0.8 and 1.0 for ingroups. These values occurred both at low sequence divergences, where substitutional saturation, i.e., multiple substitutions having occurred at the same (homologous) nucleotide position, was not expected, and at higher levels of divergence. This suggests that the angiosperm trnL-F regions evolve in a pattern different from that generally observed for nuclear and animal mtDNA (transitional/transversion ratio > or = 2). Transition/transversion ratios in the intron and the spacer region differed in all alignments compared, yet base compositions between the regions were highly similar in all six groups. A>-C transversions were significantly less frequent than the other four substitution types. This correlates with results from studies on fidelity mechanisms in DNA replication that predict A<->T and G<->C transversions to be least likely to occur. It therefore strengthens confidence in the link between mutation bias at the polymerase level and the actual fixation of substitutions as recorded on evolutionary trees, and concomitantly, in the neutrality of nucleotide substitutions as phylogenetic markers.

The history of the practice of strategy from Antiquity to Napoleon

This chapter outlines the history of the practice of strategy, predating the introduction of the term. It homes in on episodes of European history since Antiquity for which historians claim to have found evidence of the practice of strategy, defined by Kimberly Kagan as ‘the setting of a state’s objectives and of priorities among those objectives’ in order to allocate resources and choose the best means. While focusing only on Europe, this chapter covers case studies over nearly 2500 ranging from the wars of Ancient Greece, of the Romans to Medieval warfare (here with a focus on English history), the warfare of Philip II of Spain, Louis XIV of France, Frederick II of Prussia, the French Revolutionaries and Napoleon.