The high burden of injuries in South Africa

Objective To estimate the magnitude and characteristics of the injury burden in South Africa within a global context. Methods The Actuarial Society of South Africa demographic and AIDS model (ASSA 2002) – calibrated to survey, census and adjusted vital registration data – was used to calculate the total number of deaths in 2000. Causes of death were determined from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System profile. Injury death rates and years of life lost (YLL) were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease methodology. National years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by applying a ratio between YLLs and YLDs found in a local injury data source, the Cape Metropole Study. Mortality and disability-adjusted life years’ (DALYs) rates were compared with African and global estimates. Findings Interpersonal violence dominated the South African injury profile with age-standardized mortality rates at seven times the global rate. Injuries were the second-leading cause of loss of healthy life, accounting for 14.3% of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000. Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the leading cause of injury in most regions of the world but South Africa has exceedingly high numbers – double the global rate. Conclusion Injuries are an important public health issue in South Africa. Social and economic determinants of violence, many a legacy of apartheid policies, must be addressed to reduce inequalities in society and build community cohesion. Multisectoral interventions to reduce traffic injuries are also needed. We highlight this heavy burden to stress the need for effective prevention programmes.

Global burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in GBD 2010, we systematically reviewed epidemiological data and used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR, to model prevalence by age, sex, country, region, and year. We obtained disability weights from representative community surveys and an internet-based survey to calculate YLDs. We calculated premature mortality as YLLs from cause of death estimates for 1980–2010 for 20 age groups, both sexes, and 187 countries. We derived DALYs from the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We adjusted burden estimates for comorbidity and present them with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2010, mental and substance use disorders accounted for 183·9 million DALYs (95% UI 153·5 million–216·7 million), or 7·4% (6·2–8·6) of all DALYs worldwide. Such disorders accounted for 8·6 million YLLs (6·5 million–12·1 million; 0·5% [0·4–0·7] of all YLLs) and 175·3 million YLDs (144·5 million–207·8 million; 22·9% [18·6–27·2] of all YLDs). Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of YLDs worldwide. Depressive disorders accounted for 40·5% (31·7–49·2) of DALYs caused by mental and substance use disorders, with anxiety disorders accounting for 14·6% (11·2–18·4), illicit drug use disorders for 10·9% (8·9–13·2), alcohol use disorders for 9·6% (7·7–11·8), schizophrenia for 7·4% (5·0–9·8), bipolar disorder for 7·0% (4·4–10·3), pervasive developmental disorders for 4·2% (3·2–5·3), childhood behavioural disorders for 3·4% (2·2–4·7), and eating disorders for 1·2% (0·9–1·5). DALYs varied by age and sex, with the highest proportion of total DALYs occurring in people aged 10–29 years. The burden of mental and substance use disorders increased by 37·6% between 1990 and 2010, which for most disorders was driven by population growth and ageing. Interpretation Despite the apparently small contribution of YLLs—with deaths in people with mental disorders coded to the physical cause of death and suicide coded to the category of injuries under self-harm—our findings show the striking and growing challenge that these disorders pose for health systems in developed and developing regions. In view of the magnitude of their contribution, improvement in population health is only possible if countries make the prevention and treatment of mental and substance use disorders a public health priority.

Depressive symptoms and adverse outcomes from hospitalization in older adults : secondary outcomes of a trial of falls prevention education

Depression is common in older people and symptoms of depression are known to substantially increase during hospitalization. There is little known about predictors of depressive symptoms in older adults or impact of common interventions during hospitalization. This study aimed to describe the magnitude of depressive symptoms, shift of depressive symptoms and the impact of the symptoms of depression among older hospital patients during hospital admission and identify whether exposure to falls prevention education affected symptoms of depression. Participants (n = 1206) were older adults admitted within two Australian hospitals, the majority of participants completed the Geriatric Depression Scale – Short Form (GDS) at admission (n = 1168). Participants’ mean age was 74.7 (±SD 11) years and 47% (n = 551) were male. At admission 53% (619 out of 1168) of participants had symptoms of clinical depression and symptoms remained at the same level at discharge for 55% (543 out of 987). Those exposed to the low intensity education program had higher GDS scores at discharge than those in the control group (low intensity vs control n = 652, adjusted regression coefficient (95% CI) = 0.24 (0.02, 0.45), p = 0.03). The only factor other than admission level of depression that affected depressive symptoms change was if the participant was worried about falling. Older patients frequently present with symptoms of clinical depression on admission to hospital. Future research should consider these factors, whether these are modifiable and whether treatment may influence outcomes.

A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium vivax infection

Background The benign reputation of Plasmodium vivax is at odds with the burden and severity of the disease. This reputation, combined with restricted in vitro techniques, has slowed efforts to gain an understanding of the parasite biology and interaction with its human host. Methods A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. vivax infection is described, incorporating distinctive characteristics of the parasite such as the preferential invasion of reticulocytes and hypnozoite production. The developed model is fitted using digitized time-series’ from historic neurosyphilis studies, and subsequently validated against summary statistics from a larger study of the same population. The Chesson relapse pattern was used to demonstrate the impact of released hypnozoites. Results The typical pattern for dynamics of the parasite population is a rapid exponential increase in the first 10 days, followed by a gradual decline. Gametocyte counts follow a similar trend, but are approximately two orders of magnitude lower. The model predicts that, on average, an infected naïve host in the absence of treatment becomes infectious 7.9 days post patency and is infectious for a mean of 34.4 days. In the absence of treatment, the effect of hypnozoite release was not apparent as newly released parasites were obscured by the existing infection. Conclusions The results from the model provides useful insights into the dynamics of P. vivax infection in human hosts, in particular the timing of host infectiousness and the role of the hypnozoite in perpetuating infection.

Synthesis of biodegradable polymer-mesoporous silica composite microspheres for DNA prime-protein boost vaccination

DNA vaccines or proteins are capable of inducing specific immunity; however, the translation to the clinic has generally been problematic, primarily due to the reduced magnitude of immune response and poor pharmacokinetics. Herein we demonstrate a composite microsphere formulation, composed of mesoporous silica spheres (MPS) and poly(d,l-lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA), enables the controlled delivery of a prime-boost vaccine via the encapsulation of plasmid DNA (pDNA) and protein in different compartments. Method with modified dual-concentric-feeding needles attached to a 40 kHz ultrasonic atomizer was studied. These needles focus the flow of two different solutions, which passed through the ultrasonic atomizer. The process synthesis parameters, which are important to the scale-up of composite microspheres, were also studied. These parameters include polymer concentration, feed flowrate, and volumetric ratio of polymer and pDNA-PEI/MPS-BSA. This fabrication technique produced composite microspheres with mean D[4,3] ranging from 6 to 34 μm, depending upon the microsphere preparation. The resultant physical morphology of composite microspheres was largely influenced by the volumetric ratio of pDNA-PEI/MPS-BSA to polymer, and this was due to the precipitation of MPS at the surface of the microspheres. The encapsulation efficiencies were predominantly in the range of 93-98% for pDNA and 46-68% for MPS. In the in vitro studies, the pDNA and protein showed different release kinetics in a 40 day time frame. The dual-concentric-feeding in ultrasonic atomization was shown to have excellent reproducibility. It was concluded that this fabrication technique is an effective method to prepare formulations containing a heterologous prime-boost vaccine in a single delivery system.

Autonomous vehicle path planning for persistence monitoring under uncertainty using Gaussian based Markov decision process

One of the main challenges facing online and offline path planners is the uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of the environmental energy because it is dynamic, changeable with time, and hard to forecast. This thesis develops an artificial intelligence for a mobile robot to learn from historical or forecasted data of environmental energy available in the area of interest which will help for a persistence monitoring under uncertainty using the developed algorithm.

Regional avian species declines estimated from volunteer-collected long-term data using List Length Analysis

Long-term systematic population monitoring data sets are rare but are essential in identifying changes in species abundance. In contrast, community groups and natural history organizations have collected many species lists. These represent a large, untapped source of information on changes in abundance but are generally considered of little value. The major problem with using species lists to detect population changes is that the amount of effort used to obtain the list is often uncontrolled and usually unknown. It has been suggested that using the number of species on the list, the "list length," can be a measure of effort. This paper significantly extends the utility of Franklin's approach using Bayesian logistic regression. We demonstrate the value of List Length Analysis to model changes in species prevalence (i.e., the proportion of lists on which the species occurs) using bird lists collected by a local bird club over 40 years around Brisbane, southeast Queensland, Australia. We estimate the magnitude and certainty of change for 269 bird species and calculate the probabilities that there have been declines and increases of given magnitudes. List Length Analysis confirmed suspected species declines and increases. This method is an important complement to systematically designed intensive monitoring schemes and provides a means of utilizing data that may otherwise be deemed useless. The results of List Length Analysis can be used for targeting species of conservation concern for listing purposes or for more intensive monitoring. While Bayesian methods are not essential for List Length Analysis, they can offer more flexibility in interrogating the data and are able to provide a range of parameters that are easy to interpret and can facilitate conservation listing and prioritization. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Herds of methane chambers grazing bubbles

Water to air methane emissions from freshwater reservoirs can be dominated by sediment bubbling (ebullitive) events. Previous work to quantify methane bubbling from a number of Australian sub-tropical reservoirs has shown that this can contribute as much as 95% of total emissions. These bubbling events are controlled by a variety of different factors including water depth, surface and internal waves, wind seiching, atmospheric pressure changes and water levels changes. Key to quantifying the magnitude of this emission pathway is estimating both the bubbling rate as well as the areal extent of bubbling. Both bubbling rate and areal extent are seldom constant and require persistent monitoring over extended time periods before true estimates can be generated. In this paper we present a novel system for persistent monitoring of both bubbling rate and areal extent using multiple robotic surface chambers and adaptive sampling (grazing) algorithms to automate the quantification process. Individual chambers are self-propelled and guided and communicate between each other without the need for supervised control. They can maintain station at a sampling site for a desired incubation period and continuously monitor, record and report fluxes during the incubation. To exploit the methane sensor detection capabilities, the chamber can be automatically lowered to decrease the head-space and increase concentration. The grazing algorithms assign a hierarchical order to chambers within a preselected zone. Chambers then converge on the individual recording the highest 15 minute bubbling rate. Individuals maintain a specified distance apart from each other during each sampling period before all individuals are then required to move to different locations based on a sampling algorithm (systematic or adaptive) exploiting prior measurements. This system has been field tested on a large-scale subtropical reservoir, Little Nerang Dam, and over monthly timescales. Using this technique, localised bubbling zones on the water storage were found to produce over 50,000 mg m-2 d-1 and the areal extent ranged from 1.8 to 7% of the total reservoir area. The drivers behind these changes as well as lessons learnt from the system implementation are presented. This system exploits relatively cheap materials, sensing and computing and can be applied to a wide variety of aquatic and terrestrial systems.

Novel non-linear elastic structural analysis with generalised transverse element loads using a refined finite element

In the finite element modelling of structural frames, external loads such as wind loads, dead loads and imposed loads usually act along the elements rather than at the nodes only. Conventionally, when an element is subjected to these general transverse element loads, they are usually converted to nodal forces acting at the ends of the elements by either lumping or consistent load approaches. In addition, it is especially important for an element subjected to the first- and second-order elastic behaviour, to which the steel structure is critically prone to; in particular the thin-walled steel structures, when the stocky element section may be generally critical to the inelastic behaviour. In this sense, the accurate first- and second-order elastic displacement solutions of element load effect along an element is vitally crucial, but cannot be simulated using neither numerical nodal nor consistent load methods alone, as long as no equilibrium condition is enforced in the finite element formulation, which can inevitably impair the structural safety of the steel structure particularly. It can be therefore regarded as a unique element load method to account for the element load nonlinearly. If accurate displacement solution is targeted for simulating the first- and second-order elastic behaviour on an element on the basis of sophisticated non-linear element stiffness formulation, the numerous prescribed stiffness matrices must indispensably be used for the plethora of specific transverse element loading patterns encountered. In order to circumvent this shortcoming, the present paper proposes a numerical technique to include the transverse element loading in the non-linear stiffness formulation without numerous prescribed stiffness matrices, and which is able to predict structural responses involving the effect of first-order element loads as well as the second-order coupling effect between the transverse load and axial force in the element. This paper shows that the principle of superposition can be applied to derive the generalized stiffness formulation for element load effect, so that the form of the stiffness matrix remains unchanged with respect to the specific loading patterns, but with only the magnitude of the loading (element load coefficients) being needed to be adjusted in the stiffness formulation, and subsequently the non-linear effect on element loadings can be commensurate by updating the magnitude of element load coefficients through the non-linear solution procedures. In principle, the element loading distribution is converted into a single loading magnitude at mid-span in order to provide the initial perturbation for triggering the member bowing effect due to its transverse element loads. This approach in turn sacrifices the effect of element loading distribution except at mid-span. Therefore, it can be foreseen that the load-deflection behaviour may not be as accurate as those at mid-span, but its discrepancy is still trivial as proved. This novelty allows for a very useful generalised stiffness formulation for a single higher-order element with arbitrary transverse loading patterns to be formulated. Moreover, another significance of this paper is placed on shifting the nodal response (system analysis) to both nodal and element response (sophisticated element formulation). For the conventional finite element method, such as the cubic element, all accurate solutions can be only found at node. It means no accurate and reliable structural safety can be ensured within an element, and as a result, it hinders the engineering applications. The results of the paper are verified using analytical stability function studies, as well as with numerical results reported by independent researchers on several simple frames.

Load bearing exercises and functional outcome of individuals with transfemoral amputation fitted with OPRA fixation

Individuals with lower limb amputation fitted with an OPRA osseointegrated fixation are facing an extensive rehabilitation program including static load bearing exercises (LBE). The application of a suitable amount of stress stimulates osseointegration and prepares the bone to tolerate the forces and moments that will be incurred during activities of daily living (ADL. At present, the monitoring is typically carried out using a normal bathroom weighing scale. This scale provides information only on the magnitude of the vertical component of the applied force. The moment around the long axis of the fixation when the femur is perpendicular to the ground is not assessed and neither are the components of force and moment generated on the other two axes.

Static load bearing exercises during rehabilitation of individuals with transfemoral amputation fitted with osseointegrated implant: Kinetic analysis

The desire to solve problems caused by socket prostheses in transfemoral amputees and the acquired success of osseointegration in the dental application has led to the introduction of osseointegration in the orthopedic surgery. Since its first introduction in 1990 in Gothenburg Sweden the osseointegrated (OI) orthopedic fixation has proven several benefits[1]. The surgery consists of two surgical procedures followed by a lengthy rehabilitation program. The rehabilitation program after an OI implant includes a specific training period with a short training prosthesis. Since mechanical loading is considered to be one of the key factors that influence bone mass and the osseointegration of bone-anchored implants, the rehabilitation program will also need to include some form of load bearing exercises (LBE). To date there are two frequently used commercially available human implants. We can find proof in the literature that load bearing exercises are performed by patients with both types of OI implants. We refer to two articles, a first one written by Dr. Aschoff and all and published in 2010 in the Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery.[2] The second one presented by Hagberg et al in 2009 gives a very thorough description of the rehabilitation program of TFA fitted with an OPRA implant. The progression of the load however is determined individually according to the residual skeleton’s quality, pain level and body weight of the participant.[1] Patients are using a classical bathroom weighing scale to control the load on the implant during the course of their rehabilitation. The bathroom scale is an affordable and easy-to-use device but it has some important shortcomings. The scale provides instantaneous feedback to the patient only on the magnitude of the vertical component of the applied force. The forces and moments applied along and around the three axes of the implant are unknown. Although there are different ways to assess the load on the implant for instance through inverse dynamics in a motion analysis laboratory [3-6] this assessment is challenging. A recent proof- of-concept study by Frossard et al (2009) showed that the shortcomings of the weighing scale can be overcome by a portable kinetic system based on a commercial transducer[7].

One step closer into the design of fall protective device for individuals fitted with a bone-anchored prosthesis

The consequences of falls are often dreadful for individuals with lower limb amputation using bone-anchored prosthesis.[1-5] Typically, the impact on the fixation is responsible for bending the intercutaneous piece that could lead to a complete breakage over time. .[3, 5-8] The surgical replacement of this piece is possible but complex and expensive. Clearly, there is a need for solid data enabling an evidence-based design of protective devices limiting impact forces and torsion applied during a fall. The impact on the fixation during an actual fall is obviously difficult to record during a scientific experiment.[6, 8-13] Consequently, Schwartze and colleagues opted for one of the next best options science has to offer: simulation with an able-bodied participant. They recorded body movements and knee impacts on the floor while mimicking several plausible falling scenarios. Then, they calculated the forces and moments that would be applied at four levels along the femur corresponding to amputation heights.[6, 8-11, 14-25] The overall forces applied during the falls were similar regardless of the amputation height indicating that the impact forces were simply translated along the femur. As expected, they showed that overall moments generally increased with amputation height due to changes in lever arm. This work demonstrates that devices preventing only against force overload do not require considering amputation height while those protecting against bending moments should. Another significant contribution is to provide, for the time, the magnitude of the impact load during different falls. This loading range is crucial to the overall design and, more precisely, the triggering threshold of protective devices. Unfortunately, the analysis of only a single able-bodied participant replicating falls limits greatly the generalisation of the findings. Nonetheless, this case study is an important milestone contributing to a better understanding of load impact during a fall. This new knowledge will improve the treatment, the safe ambulation and, ultimately, the quality of life of individuals fitted with bone-anchored prosthesis.

School-based education programmes for the prevention of child sexual abuse

Background Child sexual abuse is a significant global problem in both magnitude and sequelae. The most widely used primary prevention strategy has been the provision of school-based education programmes. Although programmes have been taught in schools since the 1980s, their effectiveness requires ongoing scrutiny. Objectives To systematically assess evidence of the effectiveness of school-based education programmes for the prevention of child sexual abuse. Specifically, to assess whether: programmes are effective in improving students’ protective behaviours and knowledge about sexual abuse prevention; behaviours and skills are retained over time; and participation results in disclosures of sexual abuse, produces harms, or both. Search methods In September 2014, we searched CENTRAL, OvidMEDLINE, EMBASE and 11 other databases.We also searched two trials registers and screened the reference lists of previous reviews for additional trials. Selection criteria We selected randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cluster-RCTs, and quasi-RCTs of school-based education interventions for the prevention of child sexual abuse compared with another intervention or no intervention. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently assessed the eligibility of trials for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias.We summarised data for six outcomes: protective behaviours; knowledge of sexual abuse or sexual abuse prevention concepts; retention of protective behaviours over time; retention of knowledge over time; harm; and disclosures of sexual abuse. School-

Compressive and shear force generated in the lumbar spine of female rowers

Rowers have and accrue greater lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) associated with mechanical loading produced during rowing. The aim of this study was to estimate the mechanical loading generated at the lumbar spine (LS) that is apparently providing an osteogenic benefit. The cohort comprised 14 female rowers (average age: 19.7yrs; height: 170.9 cm, weight: 59.5 kg) and 14 female matched controls (average age: 20.9 m yrs; height: 167.5 cm; weight: 58.1 kg). BMD was assessed using the Hologic QDR 2000+ bone densitometer, indicating higher lumbar spine BMD in the rowers compared to the control subjects (1,069 +/- 0.1 vs. 1,027 +/- 0.1 g/cm2). No significant difference existed for BMD at any other site. All rowers performed a six-minute simulated race on a Concept II rowing ergometer. Mechanical loading generated at the lumbar spine during this task was assessed using a two-dimensional model of the spine, enabling the calculation of the compressive and shear forces at L4/L5. The shear force was the joint reaction force perpendicular to the spine at the L4/L5 joint. Peak compressive and shear force at the lumbar spine of the rowers were 2,694 +/- 609 (N) and 660 +/- 117 (N), respectively. Peak compressive force at the LS relative to body weight was 4.6 times body weight. The literature would suggest that forces of this magnitude, generated at the LS during maximal rowing, may be contributing to the site specific higher LS BMD found in the rowers.

Changes in cervical spine bone mineral density in response to flight training

BACKGROUND High magnitude loads and unusual loading regimes are two important determinants for increasing bone mass. Past research demonstrated that positive Gz-induced loading, providing high loads in an unaccustomed manner, had an osteogenic effect on bone. Another determinant of bone mass is that the bone response to loading is site specific. This study sought to further investigate the site specific bone response to loading, examining the cervical spine response, the site suspected of experiencing the greatest loading, to high performance flight. METHODS Bone mineral density (BMD) and bone mineral content (BMC) was monitored in 9 RAAF trainee fighter pilots completing an 8-mo flight training course on a PC-9 and 10 age-height-weight-matched controls. RESULTS At completion of the course, the pilots had a significant increase in cervical spine BMD and total body BMC. No significant changes were found for the control group. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrated that the physical environment associated with flight training may have contributed to a significant increase in cervical spine bone mass in the trainee PC-9 pilots. The increase in bone mass was possibly a response to the strain generated by the daily wearing of helmet and mask assembly under the influence of positive sustained accelerative forces.